Modelos geoidais híbridos para o Estado de São Paulo: desenvolvimento e avaliação

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Structure and mechanism of diet specialisation: testing models of individual variation in resource use with sea otters

Studies of consumer-resource interactions suggest that individual diet specialisation is empirically widespread and theoretically important to the organisation and dynamics of populations and communities. We used weighted networks to analyze the resource use by sea otters, testing three alternative models for how individual diet specialisation may arise. As expected, individual specialisation was absent when otter density was low, but increased at high-otter density. A high-density emergence of nested resource-use networks was consistent with the model assuming individuals share preference ranks. However, a density-dependent emergence of a non-nested modular network for core resources was more consistent with the competitive refuge model. Individuals from different diet modules showed predictable variation in rank-order prey preferences and handling times of core resources, further supporting the competitive refuge model. Our findings support a hierarchical organisation of diet specialisation and suggest individual use of core and marginal resources may be driven by different selective pressures.

Identification of literary movements using complex networks to represent texts

The use of statistical methods to analyze large databases of text has been useful in unveiling patterns of human behavior and establishing historical links between cultures and languages. In this study, we identified literary movements by treating books published from 1590 to 1922 as complex networks, whose metrics were analyzed with multivariate techniques to generate six clusters of books. The latter correspond to time periods coinciding with relevant literary movements over the last five centuries. The most important factor contributing to the distinctions between different literary styles was the average shortest path length, in particular the asymmetry of its distribution. Furthermore, over time there has emerged a trend toward larger average shortest path lengths, which is correlated with increased syntactic complexity, and a more uniform use of the words reflected in a smaller power-law coefficient for the distribution of word frequency. Changes in literary style were also found to be driven by opposition to earlier writing styles, as revealed by the analysis performed with geometrical concepts. The approaches adopted here are generic and may be extended to analyze a number of features of languages and cultures.

Lipopolysaccharide-Induced Sickness Behaviour Evaluated in Different Models of Anxiety and Innate Fear in Rats

The fact that there is a complex and bidirectional communication between the immune and nervous systems has been well demonstrated. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS), a component of gram-negative bacteria, is widely used to systematically stimulate the immune system and generate profound physiological and behavioural changes, also known as sickness behaviour (e.g. anhedonia, lethargy, loss of appetite, anxiety, sleepiness). Different ethological tools have been used to analyse the behavioural modifications induced by LPS; however, many researchers analysed only individual tests, a single LPS dose or a unique ethological parameter, thus leading to disagreements regarding the data. In the present study, we investigated the effects of different doses of LPS (10, 50, 200 and 500 mu g/kg, i.p.) in young male Wistar rats (weighing 180200 g; 89 weeks old) on the ethological and spatiotemporal parameters of the elevated plus maze, light-dark box, elevated T maze, open-field tests and emission of ultrasound vocalizations. There was a dose-dependent increase in anxiety-like behaviours caused by LPS, forming an inverted U curve peaked at LPS 200 mu g/kg dose. However, these anxiety-like behaviours were detected only by complementary ethological analysis (stretching, grooming, immobility responses and alarm calls), and these reactions seem to be a very sensitive tool in assessing the first signs of sickness behaviour. In summary, the present work clearly showed that there are resting and alertness reactions induced by opposite neuroimmune mechanisms (neuroimmune bias) that could lead to anxiety behaviours, suggesting that misunderstanding data could occur when only few ethological variables or single doses of LPS are analysed. Finally, it is hypothesized that this bias is an evolutionary tool that increases animals security while the body recovers from a systemic infection.

Modelling shared attention through relational reinforcement learning

Shared attention is a type of communication very important among human beings. It is sometimes reserved for the more complex form of communication being constituted by a sequence of four steps: mutual gaze, gaze following, imperative pointing and declarative pointing. Some approaches have been proposed in Human-Robot Interaction area to solve part of shared attention process, that is, the most of works proposed try to solve the first two steps. Models based on temporal difference, neural networks, probabilistic and reinforcement learning are methods used in several works. In this article, we are presenting a robotic architecture that provides a robot or agent, the capacity of learning mutual gaze, gaze following and declarative pointing using a robotic head interacting with a caregiver. Three learning methods have been incorporated to this architecture and a comparison of their performance has been done to find the most adequate to be used in real experiment. The learning capabilities of this architecture have been analyzed by observing the robot interacting with the human in a controlled environment. The experimental results show that the robotic head is able to produce appropriate behavior and to learn from sociable interaction.

Stochastic competitive learning in complex networks

Competitive learning is an important machine learning approach which is widely employed in artificial neural networks. In this paper, we present a rigorous definition of a new type of competitive learning scheme realized on large-scale networks. The model consists of several particles walking within the network and competing with each other to occupy as many nodes as possible, while attempting to reject intruder particles. The particle's walking rule is composed of a stochastic combination of random and preferential movements. The model has been applied to solve community detection and data clustering problems. Computer simulations reveal that the proposed technique presents high precision of community and cluster detections, as well as low computational complexity. Moreover, we have developed an efficient method for estimating the most likely number of clusters by using an evaluator index that monitors the information generated by the competition process itself. We hope this paper will provide an alternative way to the study of competitive learning.

Feasibility Study of a Solar Reactor for Phenol Treatment by the Photo-Fenton process in Aqueous Solution

Solar reactors can be attractive in photodegradation processes due to lower electrical energy demand. The performance of a solar reactor for two flow configurations, i.e., plug flow and mixed flow, is compared based on experimental results with a pilot-scale solar reactor. Aqueous solutions of phenol were used as a model for industrial wastewater containing organic contaminants. Batch experiments were carried out under clear sky, resulting in removal rates in the range of 96100?%. The dissolved organic carbon removal rate was simulated by an empirical model based on neural networks, which was adjusted to the experimental data, resulting in a correlation coefficient of 0.9856. This approach enabled to estimate effects of process variables which could not be evaluated from the experiments. Simulations with different reactor configurations indicated relevant aspects for the design of solar reactors.

Statistical models for experimental model membranes.

Biological membranes are constituted from lipid bilayers and proteins. Investigation of protein-membrane interaction, essential for biological function of cells, must rest upon solid knowledge of lipid bilayer behavior. Thus, extensive studies of an experimental model for membranes, lipid bilayers in water solution, have been undertaken in the last decades. These systems present structural, thermal and electrical properties which depend on temperature, ionic strength or concentration. In this talk, we shall discuss statistical models for lipid bilayers, as well as the relation between their properties and results for properties of lipid dispersions investigated by the laboratories supervised by Teresa Lamy (IF-USP) and Amando Ito (FFCL-USP).

Probing the statistical properties of unknown texts: application to the Voynich manuscript

While the use of statistical physics methods to analyze large corpora has been useful to unveil many patterns in texts, no comprehensive investigation has been performed on the interdependence between syntactic and semantic factors. In this study we propose a framework for determining whether a text (e.g., written in an unknown alphabet) is compatible with a natural language and to which language it could belong. The approach is based on three types of statistical measurements, i.e. obtained from first-order statistics of word properties in a text, from the topology of complex networks representing texts, and from intermittency concepts where text is treated as a time series. Comparative experiments were performed with the New Testament in 15 different languages and with distinct books in English and Portuguese in order to quantify the dependency of the different measurements on the language and on the story being told in the book. The metrics found to be informative in distinguishing real texts from their shuffled versions include assortativity, degree and selectivity of words. As an illustration, we analyze an undeciphered medieval manuscript known as the Voynich Manuscript. We show that it is mostly compatible with natural languages and incompatible with random texts. We also obtain candidates for keywords of the Voynich Manuscript which could be helpful in the effort of deciphering it. Because we were able to identify statistical measurements that are more dependent on the syntax than on the semantics, the framework may also serve for text analysis in language-dependent applications.

Modelizzazione spazio-temporale delle dinamiche di uso del suolo ed analisi comparativa di differenti approcci predittivi. Uso integrato di SIG e telerilevamento nello studio dei processi di deforestazione nella regione La Joyanca in Peten, Guatemala

L’uso frequente dei modelli predittivi per l’analisi di sistemi complessi, naturali o artificiali, sta cambiando il tradizionale approccio alle problematiche ambientali e di rischio. Il continuo miglioramento delle capacità di elaborazione dei computer facilita l’utilizzo e la risoluzione di metodi numerici basati su una discretizzazione spazio-temporale che permette una modellizzazione predittiva di sistemi reali complessi, riproducendo l’evoluzione dei loro patterns spaziali ed calcolando il grado di precisione della simulazione. In questa tesi presentiamo una applicazione di differenti metodi predittivi (Geomatico, Reti Neurali, Land Cover Modeler e Dinamica EGO) in un’area test del Petén, Guatemala. Durante gli ultimi decenni questa regione, inclusa nella Riserva di Biosfera Maya, ha conosciuto una rapida crescita demografica ed un’incontrollata pressione sulle sue risorse naturali. L’area test puó essere suddivisa in sotto-regioni caratterizzate da differenti dinamiche di uso del suolo. Comprendere e quantificare queste differenze permette una migliore approssimazione del sistema reale; é inoltre necessario integrare tutti i parametri fisici e socio-economici, per una rappresentazione più completa della complessità dell’impatto antropico. Data l’assenza di informazioni dettagliate sull’area di studio, quasi tutti i dati sono stati ricavati dall’elaborazione di 11 immagini ETM+, TM e SPOT; abbiamo poi realizzato un’analisi multitemporale dei cambi uso del suolo passati e costruito l’input per alimentare i modelli predittivi. I dati del 1998 e 2000 sono stati usati per la fase di calibrazione per simulare i cambiamenti nella copertura terrestre del 2003, scelta come data di riferimento per la validazione dei risultati. Quest’ultima permette di evidenziare le qualità ed i limiti per ogni modello nelle differenti sub-regioni.

Capacidad de obtener beneficio de reglas técnicas de contratación basadas en algoritmos de minería de datos

Trabajo Fin de Grado de la doble titulación de Grado en Ingeniería Informática y Grado en Administración y Dirección de Empresas.

Econometric models of financial risks

The goal of this dissertation is to use statistical tools to analyze specific financial risks that have played dominant roles in the US financial crisis of 2008-2009. The first risk relates to the level of aggregate stress in the financial markets. I estimate the impact of financial stress on economic activity and monetary policy using structural VAR analysis. The second set of risks concerns the US housing market. There are in fact two prominent risks associated with a US mortgage, as borrowers can both prepay or default on a mortgage. I test the existence of unobservable heterogeneity in the borrower's decision to default or prepay on his mortgage by estimating a multinomial logit model with borrower-specific random coefficients.

A numerical methodology for the multi-objective optimization of the DI Diesel engine combustion

DI Diesel engine are widely used both for industrial and automotive applications due to their durability and fuel economy. Nonetheless, increasing environmental concerns force that type of engine to comply with increasingly demanding emission limits, so that, it has become mandatory to develop a robust design methodology of the DI Diesel combustion system focused on reduction of soot and NOx simultaneously while maintaining a reasonable fuel economy. In recent years, genetic algorithms and CFD three-dimensional combustion simulations have been successfully applied to that kind of problem. However, combining GAs optimization with actual CFD three-dimensional combustion simulations can be too onerous since a large number of calculations is usually needed for the genetic algorithm to converge, resulting in a high computational cost and, thus, limiting the suitability of this method for industrial processes. In order to make the optimization process less time-consuming, CFD simulations can be more conveniently used to generate a training set for the learning process of an artificial neural network which, once correctly trained, can be used to forecast the engine outputs as a function of the design parameters during a GA optimization performing a so-called virtual optimization. In the current work, a numerical methodology for the multi-objective virtual optimization of the combustion of an automotive DI Diesel engine, which relies on artificial neural networks and genetic algorithms, was developed.

Lernen mit einer Hybride aus Lernendem Klassifizierendem System und Selbstorganisierender Karte

Im Forschungsgebiet der Künstlichen Intelligenz, insbesondere im Bereich des maschinellen Lernens, hat sich eine ganze Reihe von Verfahren etabliert, die von biologischen Vorbildern inspiriert sind. Die prominentesten Vertreter derartiger Verfahren sind zum einen Evolutionäre Algorithmen, zum anderen Künstliche Neuronale Netze. Die vorliegende Arbeit befasst sich mit der Entwicklung eines Systems zum maschinellen Lernen, das Charakteristika beider Paradigmen in sich vereint: Das Hybride Lernende Klassifizierende System (HCS) wird basierend auf dem reellwertig kodierten eXtended Learning Classifier System (XCS), das als Lernmechanismus einen Genetischen Algorithmus enthält, und dem Wachsenden Neuralen Gas (GNG) entwickelt. Wie das XCS evolviert auch das HCS mit Hilfe eines Genetischen Algorithmus eine Population von Klassifizierern - das sind Regeln der Form [WENN Bedingung DANN Aktion], wobei die Bedingung angibt, in welchem Bereich des Zustandsraumes eines Lernproblems ein Klassifizierer anwendbar ist. Beim XCS spezifiziert die Bedingung in der Regel einen achsenparallelen Hyperquader, was oftmals keine angemessene Unterteilung des Zustandsraumes erlaubt. Beim HCS hingegen werden die Bedingungen der Klassifizierer durch Gewichtsvektoren beschrieben, wie die Neuronen des GNG sie besitzen. Jeder Klassifizierer ist anwendbar in seiner Zelle der durch die Population des HCS induzierten Voronoizerlegung des Zustandsraumes, dieser kann also flexibler unterteilt werden als beim XCS. Die Verwendung von Gewichtsvektoren ermöglicht ferner, einen vom Neuronenadaptationsverfahren des GNG abgeleiteten Mechanismus als zweites Lernverfahren neben dem Genetischen Algorithmus einzusetzen. Während das Lernen beim XCS rein evolutionär erfolgt, also nur durch Erzeugen neuer Klassifizierer, ermöglicht dies dem HCS, bereits vorhandene Klassifizierer anzupassen und zu verbessern. Zur Evaluation des HCS werden mit diesem verschiedene Lern-Experimente durchgeführt. Die Leistungsfähigkeit des Ansatzes wird in einer Reihe von Lernproblemen aus den Bereichen der Klassifikation, der Funktionsapproximation und des Lernens von Aktionen in einer interaktiven Lernumgebung unter Beweis gestellt.

A New Prediction Model for Slope Stability Analysis

The instability of river bank can result in considerable human and land losses. The Po river is the most important in Italy, characterized by main banks of significant and constantly increasing height. This study presents multilayer perceptron of artificial neural network (ANN) to construct prediction models for the stability analysis of river banks along the Po River, under various river and groundwater boundary conditions. For this aim, a number of networks of threshold logic unit are tested using different combinations of the input parameters. Factor of safety (FS), as an index of slope stability, is formulated in terms of several influencing geometrical and geotechnical parameters. In order to obtain a comprehensive geotechnical database, several cone penetration tests from the study site have been interpreted. The proposed models are developed upon stability analyses using finite element code over different representative sections of river embankments. For the validity verification, the ANN models are employed to predict the FS values of a part of the database beyond the calibration data domain. The results indicate that the proposed ANN models are effective tools for evaluating the slope stability. The ANN models notably outperform the derived multiple linear regression models.