DECOMPOSITION OF REGRESSION ESTIMATORS TO EXPLORE THE INFLUENCE OF "UNMEASURED" TIME-VARYING CONFOUNDERS

In environmental epidemiology, exposure X and health outcome Y vary in space and time. We present a method to diagnose the possible influence of unmeasured confounders U on the estimated effect of X on Y and to propose several approaches to robust estimation. The idea is to use space and time as proxy measures for the unmeasured factors U. We start with the time series case where X and Y are continuous variables at equally-spaced times and assume a linear model. We define matching estimator b(u)s that correspond to pairs of observations with specific lag u. Controlling for a smooth function of time, St, using a kernel estimator is roughly equivalent to estimating the association with a linear combination of the b(u)s with weights that involve two components: the assumptions about the smoothness of St and the normalized variogram of the X process. When an unmeasured confounder U exists, but the model otherwise correctly controls for measured confounders, the excess variation in b(u)s is evidence of confounding by U. We use the plot of b(u)s versus lag u, lagged-estimator-plot (LEP), to diagnose the influence of U on the effect of X on Y. We use appropriate linear combination of b(u)s or extrapolate to b(0) to obtain novel estimators that are more robust to the influence of smooth U. The methods are extended to time series log-linear models and to spatial analyses. The LEP plot gives us a direct view of the magnitude of the estimators for each lag u and provides evidence when models did not adequately describe the data.

Human temporal bones versus mechanical model to evaluate three middle ear transducers

A life-size mechanical middle ear model and human temporal bones were used to evaluate three different middle ear transducers for implantable hearing aids: the driving rod transducer (DRT), the floating mass transducer (FMT) or vibrant sound bridge, and the contactless transducer (CLT). Results of the experiments with the mechanical model were within the range of the results for human temporal bones. However, results with the mechanical model showed better reproducibility. The handling of the mechanical model was considerably simpler and less time-consuming. Systematic variations of mounting parameters showed that the angle of the rod has virtually no effect on the output of the DRT, the mass loading on the cable of the FMT has a larger impact on the output than does the tightness of crimping, and the output level of the CLT can be increased by 10 dB by optimizing the mounting parameters.

Evaluation of flood risk in response to climate variability

Standard procedures for forecasting flood risk (Bulletin 17B) assume annual maximum flood (AMF) series are stationary, meaning the distribution of flood flows is not significantly affected by climatic trends/cycles, or anthropogenic activities within the watershed. Historical flood events are therefore considered representative of future flood occurrences, and the risk associated with a given flood magnitude is modeled as constant over time. However, in light of increasing evidence to the contrary, this assumption should be reconsidered, especially as the existence of nonstationarity in AMF series can have significant impacts on planning and management of water resources and relevant infrastructure. Research presented in this thesis quantifies the degree of nonstationarity evident in AMF series for unimpaired watersheds throughout the contiguous U.S., identifies meteorological, climatic, and anthropogenic causes of this nonstationarity, and proposes an extension of the Bulletin 17B methodology which yields forecasts of flood risk that reflect climatic influences on flood magnitude. To appropriately forecast flood risk, it is necessary to consider the driving causes of nonstationarity in AMF series. Herein, large-scale climate patterns—including El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO)—are identified as influencing factors on flood magnitude at numerous stations across the U.S. Strong relationships between flood magnitude and associated precipitation series were also observed for the majority of sites analyzed in the Upper Midwest and Northeastern regions of the U.S. Although relationships between flood magnitude and associated temperature series are not apparent, results do indicate that temperature is highly correlated with the timing of flood peaks. Despite consideration of watersheds classified as unimpaired, analyses also suggest that identified change-points in AMF series are due to dam construction, and other types of regulation and diversion. Although not explored herein, trends in AMF series are also likely to be partially explained by changes in land use and land cover over time. Results obtained herein suggest that improved forecasts of flood risk may be obtained using a simple modification of the Bulletin 17B framework, wherein the mean and standard deviation of the log-transformed flows are modeled as functions of climate indices associated with oceanic-atmospheric patterns (e.g. AMO, ENSO, NAO, and PDO) with lead times between 3 and 9 months. Herein, one-year ahead forecasts of the mean and standard deviation, and subsequently flood risk, are obtained by applying site specific multivariate regression models, which reflect the phase and intensity of a given climate pattern, as well as possible impacts of coupling of the climate cycles. These forecasts of flood risk are compared with forecasts derived using the existing Bulletin 17B model; large differences in the one-year ahead forecasts are observed in some locations. The increased knowledge of the inherent structure of AMF series and an improved understanding of physical and/or climatic causes of nonstationarity gained from this research should serve as insight for the formulation of a physical-casual based statistical model, incorporating both climatic variations and human impacts, for flood risk over longer planning horizons (e.g., 10-, 50, 100-years) necessary for water resources design, planning, and management.

Development of a physically-based method for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions and flood quantile estimation in ungauged basins via the index flood method

Regional flood frequency techniques are commonly used to estimate flood quantiles when flood data is unavailable or the record length at an individual gauging station is insufficient for reliable analyses. These methods compensate for limited or unavailable data by pooling data from nearby gauged sites. This requires the delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions in which the flood regime is sufficiently similar to allow the spatial transfer of information. It is generally accepted that hydrologic similarity results from similar physiographic characteristics, and thus these characteristics can be used to delineate regions and classify ungauged sites. However, as currently practiced, the delineation is highly subjective and dependent on the similarity measures and classification techniques employed. A standardized procedure for delineation of hydrologically homogeneous regions is presented herein. Key aspects are a new statistical metric to identify physically discordant sites, and the identification of an appropriate set of physically based measures of extreme hydrological similarity. A combination of multivariate statistical techniques applied to multiple flood statistics and basin characteristics for gauging stations in the Southeastern U.S. revealed that basin slope, elevation, and soil drainage largely determine the extreme hydrological behavior of a watershed. Use of these characteristics as similarity measures in the standardized approach for region delineation yields regions which are more homogeneous and more efficient for quantile estimation at ungauged sites than those delineated using alternative physically-based procedures typically employed in practice. The proposed methods and key physical characteristics are also shown to be efficient for region delineation and quantile development in alternative areas composed of watersheds with statistically different physical composition. In addition, the use of aggregated values of key watershed characteristics was found to be sufficient for the regionalization of flood data; the added time and computational effort required to derive spatially distributed watershed variables does not increase the accuracy of quantile estimators for ungauged sites. This dissertation also presents a methodology by which flood quantile estimates in Haiti can be derived using relationships developed for data rich regions of the U.S. As currently practiced, regional flood frequency techniques can only be applied within the predefined area used for model development. However, results presented herein demonstrate that the regional flood distribution can successfully be extrapolated to areas of similar physical composition located beyond the extent of that used for model development provided differences in precipitation are accounted for and the site in question can be appropriately classified within a delineated region.

Public preferences of the Great Lakes Environment : a Lake Michigan pilot study

The Great Lakes watershed is home to over 40 million people, and the health of the Great Lakes ecosystem is vital to the overall economic, societal, and environmental health of the U.S. and Canada. However, environmental issues related to them are sometimes overlooked. Policymakers and the public face the challenges of balancing economic benefits with the need to conserve and/or replenish regional natural resources to ensure long term prosperity. From the literature review, nine critical stressors of ecological services were delineated, which include pollution and contamination, agricultural erosion, non-native species, degraded recreational resources, loss of wetlands habitat, climate change, risk of clean water shortage, vanishing sand dunes, and population overcrowding; this list was validated through a series of stakeholder discussions and focus groups in Grand Rapids. Focus groups were conducted in Grand Rapids to examine the awareness of, concern with, and willingness to expend resources on these stressors. Stressors that the respondents have direct contact with tend to be the most important. The focus group results show that concern related to pollution and contamination is much higher than for any of the other stressors. Low responses to climate change result in recommendations for outreach programs.

Study of water use and supply in the district of Independencia, Peru

Peru is a developing country with abundant fresh water resources, yet the lack of infrastructure leaves much of the population without access to safe water for domestic uses. The author of this report was a Peace Corps Volunteer in the sector of water & sanitation in the district of Independencia, Ica, Peru. Independencia is located in the arid coastal region of the country, receiving on average 15 mm of rain annually. The water source for this district comes from the Pisco River, originating in the Andean highlands and outflowing into the Pacific Ocean near the town of Pisco, Peru. The objectives of this report are to assess the water supply and sanitation practices, model the existing water distribution system, and make recommendations for future expansion of the distribution system in the district of Independencia, Peru. The assessment of water supply will be based on the results from community surveys done in the district of Independencia, water quality testing done by a detachment of the U.S. Navy, as well as on the results of a hydraulic model built in EPANET 2.0 to represent the distribution system. Sanitation practice assessments will be based on the surveys as well as observations from the author while living in Peru. Recommendations for system expansions will be made based on results from the EPANET model and the municipality’s technical report for the existing distribution system. Household water use and sanitation surveys were conducted with 84 families in the district revealing that upwards of 85% store their domestic water in regularly washed containers with lids. Over 80% of those surveyed are drinking water that is treated, mostly boiled. Of those surveyed, over 95% reported washing their hands and over 60% mentioned at least one critical time for hand washing when asked for specific instances. From the surveys, it was also discovered that over 80% of houses are properly disposing of excrement, in either latrines or septic tanks. There were 43 families interviewed with children five years of age or under, and just over 18% reported the child had a case of diarrhea within the last month at the time of the interview. Finally, from the surveys it was calculated that the average water use per person per day is about 22 liters. Water quality testing carried out by a detachment of the U.S. Navy revealed that the water intended for consumption in the houses surveyed was not suitable for consumption, with a median E. coli most probable number of 47/100 ml for the 61 houses sampled. The median total coliforms was 3,000 colony forming units per 100 ml. EPANET was used to simulate the water delivery system and evaluate its performance. EPANET is designed for continuous water delivery systems, assuming all pipes are always flowing full. To account for the intermittent nature of the system, multiple EPANET network models were created to simulate how water is routed to the different parts of the system throughout the day. The models were created from interviews with the water technicians and a map of the system created using handheld GPS units. The purpose is to analyze the performance of the water system that services approximately 13,276 people in the district of Independencia, Peru, as well as provide recommendations for future growth and improvement of the service level. Performance evaluation of the existing system is based on meeting 25 liters per person per day while maintaining positive pressure at all nodes in the network. The future performance is based on meeting a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, as proposed by Chase (2000). The EPANET model results yield an average nodal pressure for all communities of 71 psi, with a range from 1.3 – 160 psi. Thus, if the current water delivery schedule obtained from the local municipality is followed, all communities should have sufficient pressure to deliver 25 l/p/d, with the exception of Los Rosales, which can only supply 3.25 l/p/d. However, if the line to Los Rosales were increased from one to four inches, the system could supply this community with 25 l/p/d. The district of Independencia could greatly benefit from increasing the service level to 24-hour water delivery and a minimum of 50 l/p/d, so that communities without reliable access due to insufficient pressure would become equal beneficiaries of this invaluable resource. To evaluate the feasibility of this, EPANET was used to model the system with a range of population growth rates, system lifetimes, and demands. In order to meet a minimum pressure of 20 psi in the main line, the 6-inch diameter main line must be increased and approximately two miles of trench must be excavated up to 30 feet deep. The sections of the main line that must be excavated are mile 0-1 and 1.5-2.5, and the first 3.4 miles of the main line must be increased from 6 to 16 inches, contracting to 10 inches for the remaining 5.8 miles. Doing this would allow 24-hour water delivery and provide 50 l/p/d for a range of population growth rates and system lifetimes. It is expected that improving the water delivery service would reduce the morbidity and mortality from diarrheal diseases by decreasing the recontamination of the water due to transport and household storage, as well as by maintaining continuous pressure in the system to prevent infiltration of contaminated groundwater. However, this expansion must be carefully planned so as not to affect aquatic ecosystems or other districts utilizing water from the Pisco River. It is recommended that stream gaging of the Pisco River and precipitation monitoring of the surrounding watershed is initiated in order to begin a hydrological study that would be integrated into the district’s water resource planning. It is also recommended that the district begin routine water quality testing, with the results available to the public.

Integration of computational models and experimental characterization to study internal frost damage in cementitious materials

The objective of this doctoral research is to investigate the internal frost damage due to crystallization pore pressure in porous cement-based materials by developing computational and experimental characterization tools. As an essential component of the U.S. infrastructure system, the durability of concrete has significant impact on maintenance costs. In cold climates, freeze-thaw damage is a major issue affecting the durability of concrete. The deleterious effects of the freeze-thaw cycle depend on the microscale characteristics of concrete such as the pore sizes and the pore distribution, as well as the environmental conditions. Recent theories attribute internal frost damage of concrete is caused by crystallization pore pressure in the cold environment. The pore structures have significant impact on freeze-thaw durability of cement/concrete samples. The scanning electron microscope (SEM) and transmission X-ray microscopy (TXM) techniques were applied to characterize freeze-thaw damage within pore structure. In the microscale pore system, the crystallization pressures at sub-cooling temperatures were calculated using interface energy balance with thermodynamic analysis. The multi-phase Extended Finite Element Modeling (XFEM) and bilinear Cohesive Zone Modeling (CZM) were developed to simulate the internal frost damage of heterogeneous cement-based material samples. The fracture simulation with these two techniques were validated by comparing the predicted fracture behavior with the captured damage from compact tension (CT) and single-edge notched beam (SEB) bending tests. The study applied the developed computational tools to simulate the internal frost damage caused by ice crystallization with the two dimensional (2-D) SEM and three dimensional (3-D) reconstructed SEM and TXM digital samples. The pore pressure calculated from thermodynamic analysis was input for model simulation. The 2-D and 3-D bilinear CZM predicted the crack initiation and propagation within cement paste microstructure. The favorably predicted crack paths in concrete/cement samples indicate the developed bilinear CZM techniques have the ability to capture crack nucleation and propagation in cement-based material samples with multiphase and associated interface. By comparing the computational prediction with the actual damaged samples, it also indicates that the ice crystallization pressure is the main mechanism for the internal frost damage in cementitious materials.

IS THE U.S. SHALE GAS BOOM HAVING AN EFFECT ON THE EUROPEAN GAS MARKET?

This thesis focuses on the impact of the American shale gas boom on the European natural gas market. The study presents different tests in order to analyze the dynamics of natural gas prices in the U.S., U.K. and German natural gas market. The question of cointegration between these different markets are analyzed using several tests. More specifically, the ADF tests for the presence of a unit root. The error correction model test and the Johansen cointegration procedure are applied in order to accept or reject the hypothesis of an integrated market. The results suggest no evidence of cointegration between these markets. There currently is no evidence of an impact of the U.S. shale gas boom on the European market.

Nitrogen Oxides in the North Atlantic Troposphere: Impacts of Boreal Wildfire and Anthropogenic Emissions

Nitrogen oxides play a crucial role in the budget of tropospheric ozone (O sub(3)) and the formation of the hydroxyl radical. Anthropogenic activities and boreal wildfires are large sources of emissions in the atmosphere. However, the influence of the transport of these emissions on nitrogen oxides and O sub(3) levels at hemispheric scales is not well understood, in particular due to a lack of nitrogen oxides measurements in remote regions. In order to address these deficiencies, measurements of NO, NO sub(2) and NO sub(y) (total reactive nitrogen oxides) were made in the lower free troposphere (FT) over the central North Atlantic region (Pico Mountain station, 38 degree N 28 degree W, 2.3 km asl) from July 2002 to August 2005. These measurements reveal a well-defined seasonal cycle of nitrogen oxides (NO sub(x) = NO+NO sub(2) and NO sub(y)) in the background central North Atlantic lower FT, with higher mixing ratios during the summertime. Observed NO sub(x) and NO sub(y) levels are consistent with long-range transport of emissions, but with significant removal en-route to the measurement site. Reactive nitrogen largely exists in the form of PAN and HNO sub(3) ( similar to 80-90% of NO sub(y)) all year round. A shift in the composition of NO sub(y) from dominance of PAN to dominance of HNO sub(3) occurs from winter-spring to summer-fall, as a result of changes in temperature and photochemistry over the region. Analysis of the long-range transport of boreal wildfire emissions on nitrogen oxides provides evidence of the very large-scale impacts of boreal wildfires on the tropospheric NO sub(x) and O sub(3) budgets. Boreal wildfire emissions are responsible for significant shifts in the nitrogen oxides distributions toward higher levels during the summer, with medians of NO sub(y) (117-175 pptv) and NO sub(x) (9-30 pptv) greater in the presence of boreal wildfire emissions. Extreme levels of NO sub(x) (up to 150 pptv) and NO sub(y) (up to 1100 pptv) observed in boreal wildfire plumes suggest that decomposition of PAN to NO sub(x) is a significant source of NO sub(x), and imply that O sub(3) formation occurs during transport. Ozone levels are also significantly enhanced in boreal wildfire plumes. However, a complex behavior of O sub(3) is observed in the plumes, which varies from significant to lower O sub(3) production to O sub(3) destruction. Long-range transport of anthropogenic emissions from North America also has a significant influence on the regional NO sub(x) and O sub(3) budgets. Transport of pollution from North America causes significant enhancements on nitrogen oxides year-round. Enhancements of CO, NO sub(y) and NO sub(x) indicate that, consistent with previous studies, more than 95% of the NO sub(x) emitted over the U.S. is removed before and during export out of the U.S. boundary layer. However, about 30% of the NO sub(x) emissions exported out of the U.S. boundary layer remain in the airmasses. Since the lifetime of NO sub(x) is shorter than the transport timescale, PAN decomposition and potentially photolysis of HNO sub(3) provide a supply of NO sub(x) over the central North Atlantic lower FT. Observed Delta O sub(3)/ Delta NO sub(y) and large NO sub(y) levels remaining in the North American plumes suggest potential O sub(3) formation well downwind from North America. Finally, a comparison of the nitrogen oxides measurements with results from the global chemical transport (GCT) model GEOS-Chem identifies differences between the observations and the model. GEOS-Chem reproduces the seasonal variation of nitrogen oxides over the central North Atlantic lower FT, but does not capture the magnitude of the cycles. Improvements in our understanding of nitrogen oxides chemistry in the remote FT and emission sources are necessary for the current GCT models to adequately estimate the impacts of emissions on tropospheric NO sub(x) and the resulting impacts on the O sub(3) budget.

The Other Side of the Doors: Butte & Beyond -- Congressman Pat Williams “In the Crucible of Change”

Pat Williams emerged from the Mining City of Butte, Montana with a sense of grassroots, people-oriented politics. His inherent belief in the power of ordinary citizens carried him through the Montana Legislature and into Congress for a record-setting period. The accomplishments of his long career partially obscured his innate progressive and populist instinct that is reflective of the period of “in the Crucible of Change.” This film addresses Pat’s early years when his progressive instincts and activities resulted in pushback from the giant Anaconda Company which had held Montana hostage for 75 years. Pat is joined for part of the film by former campaign staffer, and now prominent media consultant, Michael Fenenbock for reflections on Pat’s 1978 “Door-to-Door to Congress” campaign, which demonstrated the power of his belief in the people on the other side of the doors. Pat Williams (b. 1937) rose from teaching grade school in his hometown of Butte, MT, to serving for the longest number of consecutive terms (9 terms, 18 years) in the US House of Representatives of anyone in Montana history. Pat was a member of the National Guard and attended UM in Missoula and William Jewel College, graduating from the University of Denver. Pat also served in the Montana legislature for 2 terms (1966 & 1968 elections). In 1969. Pat helped his legislative seat-mate John Melcher get elected as Montana’s Eastern District Congressman in the Special Election that June. Pat went to Washington DC as Melcher’s Executive Assistant. Upon returning to Montana, Pat headed up the Montana offices of the innovative Mountain Plains Family Education Program. In 1974, Pat ran unsuccessfully for Montana’s Western District Congressional seat in a three-way race with former Congressman Arnold Olsen and state Legislator Max Baucus. After the drafting and passage of the 1972 Montana Constitution, Pat was named a member of Montana’s first-ever Reapportionment Commission. In 1978 he successfully ran for Congress, conducting a massive grass-roots door-to-door campaign of 1½ years, reaching 50,000 doors. In a hotly contested 6-way Democratic primary, Pat won going away and also handily won the general election. Pat served in Congress from January, 1979 until January of 1997, 14 years representing the Western District and 4 years representing the entire state. Upon his retirement from Congress, in 1997 Williams returned to Montana where has been an instructor at the University of Montana and Senior Fellow and Regional Policy Associate at the Center for the Rocky Mountain West. He is a former member of the Montana Board of Regents and serves on a number of national education-related boards. In Congress Pat was a Deputy Whip of the U.S. House of Representatives and sat on committees on: Budget, Natural Resources, Education and Labor, and Agriculture. Pat’s leadership helped pass trailblazing legislation to assist hard-working middle-class families and ensure opportunities for every child. Pat’s fingerprints are on many pieces of important legislation, including the College Middle Income Assistance Act, the Family and Medical Leave Act, the Toddlers and Childhood Disability Act, the Library Services and Construction Act, and the Museum Services Act. Pat successfully sponsored the Lee Metcalf Wilderness Area and the Rattlesnake Wilderness area, helped save the Bob Marshall Wilderness from oil and gas exploration, and helped ban geothermal energy drilling near the borders of Yellowstone National Park. As Chairman of The Post-Secondary Education Committee, he protected the National Endowment for the Arts from elimination, a remarkable undertaking during a very trying time for the Agency. Pat worked tirelessly with Tribal College Leaders to build Montana’s seven Tribal Colleges. He was also responsible for the legislation that created The American Conservation Corps, which became the Corporation for National Service, giving thousands of America’s young people a chance to serve their country and pursue higher education. Pat lives in Missoula with his wife Carol Griffith Williams, former Montana Senate Majority Leader. They have three children and five grandchildren.

Remembering Lee Metcalf

Abstract Montana's Lee Metcalf was an extraordinary Montana leader with an unbelievable record of accomplishment fighting for the little people against the forces of economic and political power. The public memory is so short that this film will serve to help reacquaint Lee & Donna Metcalf to most of those who were around during their time. But it will also provide an opportunity for new generations to receive a perspective of an important leader from an important time. (Language from YouTube version of the film, written and provided by Executive Producer Evan Barrett) Lee Warren Metcalf (January 28, 1911 – January 12, 1978) was an American lawyer, judge, and politician. A member of the Democratic Party, he served as a U.S. Representative (1953–1961) and a U.S. Senator (1961–1978) from Montana. He was permanent acting President pro tempore of the Senate, the only person to hold that position, from 1963 until his death in 1978. U.S. House of Representatives During his tenure in the House, Metcalf served on the Education and Labor Committee (1953–1959), Interior and Insular Affairs Committee (1955–1959), Select Astronautics and Space Exploration Committee (1958), and Ways and Means Committee (1959–1960). He became known as one of Congress's "Young Turks" who promoted liberal domestic social legislation and reform of congressional procedures. He introduced legislation to provide health care to the elderly ten years before the creation of Medicare. He earned the nickname "Mr. Education" after sponsoring a comprehensive bill providing for federal aid to education. He also voted against legislation that would have raised grazing permits on federal lands, and led the opposition to a bill that would have swapped forested public lands for cutover private lands. He was elected chairman of the Democratic Study Group in 1959. U. S. Senate Regarded as "a pioneer of the conservation movement", Metcalf worked to protect the natural environment and regulate utilities. He helped pass the Wilderness Act of 1964, and supported the creation of the Great Bear Wilderness and the Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness. In 1962, he introduced a "Save Our Streams" bill to preserve natural recreation facilities and protect fish and wildlife from being destroyed by highway construction. He was a longtime member of the Migratory Bird Conservation Commission. He was also active on the issue of education. He was a leading supporter of the Elementary and Secondary Education Act, the effort to extend the G.I. Bill's educational benefits to a new generation of veterans, and the development of legislation to improve federally-aided vocational education.[1] The Peace Corps was established under leadership of Metcalf and Senator Mansfield. In 1983, by act of Congress, the Lee Metcalf Wilderness area was created in southwestern Montana in honor of the late Congressman. The Great Bear Wilderness and Absaroka-Beartooth Wilderness areas were also created as a result of Metcalf's efforts in Congress, in addition to the Lee Metcalf National Wildlife Refuge in Montana. Metcalf was ranked number 15 on a list of the 100 Most Influential Montanans of the Century by the Missoulian newspaper. This text is courtesy of Wikipedia®, a registered trademark of the Wikimedia Foundation, Inc., a non-profit organization, and is available under the Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike License.

Clinical experience with the use of bivalirudin in a large population undergoing endovascular abdominal aortic aneurysm repair

PURPOSE: To retrospectively evaluate the safety and effectiveness of the use of bivalirudin, a direct thrombin antagonist, compared with unfractionated heparin in endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR). MATERIALS AND METHODS: Between March 1994 and September 2007, 740 consecutive patients (mean age, 75.7 y +/- 7.7; 69 women) underwent elective EVAR for infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm. Bivalirudin was used in 98 of these 740 (13.2%) and unfractioned heparin was used in the other 642 (86.8%). Complications were classified according to the Society of Vascular Surgery/International Society for Cardiovascular Surgery criteria. Major bleeding was defined as clinically overt blood loss resulting in a decrease of hemoglobin of more than 3 g/dL, any decrease in hemoglobin of more than 4 g/dL, transfusion of 2 U or more of red blood cells, or intracranial or retroperitoneal hemorrhage. RESULTS: Grade 1 major complications were observed in 161 of 642 patients (25.2%) in the heparin group and 12 of 98 patients (12.2%) in the bivalirudin group (P = .0046), whereas the incidences of grade 3 major complications were not significantly different between groups (P = .57). The rate of total complications was higher in the heparin group than in the bivalirudin group (247 of 642 [38.5%] vs 21 of 98 [21.4%]; P = .001). Major bleeding occurred in 10 of 98 patients (10.2%) receiving bivalirudin and in 91 of 642 patients (14.2%) receiving heparin (P = .34). One of 21 major complications (4.76%) in the bivalirudin group and 12 of 247 major complications (4.86%) in the heparin group were attributable to thrombosis (P = 1.0). CONCLUSIONS: Bivalirudin is a safe and feasible alternative to unfractionated heparin in patients undergoing EVAR.

A test of genetic association among male nuptial coloration, female mating preference, and male aggression bias within a polymorphic population of cichlid fish

Both inter- and intrasexual selection have been implicated in the origin and maintenance of species-rich taxa with diverse sexual traits. Simultaneous disruptive selection by female mate choice and male-male competition can, in theory, lead to speciation without geographical isolation if both act on the same male trait. Female mate choice can generate discontinuities in gene flow, while male-male competition can generate negative frequency-dependent selection stabilizing the male trait polymorphism. Speciation may be facilitated when mating preference and/or aggression bias are physically linked to the trait they operate on. We tested for genetic associations among female mating preference, male aggression bias and male coloration in the Lake Victoria cichlid Pundamilia. We crossed females from a phenotypically variable population with males from both extreme ends of the phenotype distribution in the same population (blue or red). Male offspring of a red sire were significantly redder than males of a blue sire, indicating that intra-population variation in male coloration is heritable. We tested mating preferences of female offspring and aggression biases of male offspring using binary choice tests. There was no evidence for associations at the family level between female mating preferences and coloration of sires, but dam identity had a significant effect on female mate preference. Sons of the red sire directed significantly more aggression to red than blue males, whereas sons of the blue sire did not show any bias. There was a positive correlation among individuals between male aggression bias and body coloration, possibly due to pleiotropy or physical linkage, which could facilitate the maintenance of color polymorphism.

Transport of 234U in the Opalinus Clay on centimetre to decimetre scales

The Opalinus Clay formation in North Switzerland is a potential host rock for a deep underground radioactive waste repository. The distribution of U-238, U-234 and Th-230 was studied in rock samples of the Opalinus Clay from an exploratory borehole at Benken (Canton of Zurich) using MC-ICP-MS. The aim of U-234 was to assess the in situ, long-term migration behaviour in this rock. Very low hydraulic conductivities of the Opalinus Clay, reducing potential of the pore water and its chemical equilibrium with the host rock are expected to render both U-238 and Th-230 immobile. If U is heterogeneously distributed in the Opalinus Clay, gradients in the supply of U-234 from the rock matrix to the pore water by the decay of U-238 will be established. Diffusive redistribution separates U-234 from its immobile parent U-238 resulting in bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity disequilibria. These may provide a means of estimating the mobility of U-234 in the rock if the diffusion rate of U-234 is significant compared to its decay rate. Sampling was carried out on two scales. Drilling of cm-spaced samples from the drill-core was done to study mobility over short distances and elucidate possible small-scale lithological control. Homogenized 25-cm-long portions of a 2-m-long drill-core section were prepared to provide information on transport over a longer distance. Variations in U and/or Th content on the cm-scale between clays and carbonate-sandy layers are revealed by beta-scanning, which shows that the (dominant) clay is richer in both elements. Samples were digested using aqua regia followed by total HF dissolution, yielding two fractions. in all studied samples U was found to be concentrated in the HF digestion fraction. It has a high U/Th ratio and a study by SEM-EDS points to sub-mu m up to several mu m in size zircon grains as the main U-rich phase. This fraction consistently has U-234/U-238 activity ratios below unity. The minute zircon grains constitute the major reservoir of U in the rock and act as constant rate suppliers of U-234 into the rock matrix and the pore water. The aqua regia leach fraction was found to be enriched in Th, and complementary to the HF fraction, having U-234/U-238 activity ratios above unity. It is believed that these U activity ratios reflect the surplus of having U-234 delivered from the zircon grains. Some cm-spaced samples show bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios that are markedly out of equilibrium. In most of them a striking negative correlation between the total U content and the bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios is observed. This is interpreted to indicate net U-234 transfer from regions of higher supply of U-234 towards those of lower supply which is, in most cases, equivalent to transfer from clayey towards carbonate/sandy portions of the rock. In contrast, the 25 cm averaged samples all have uniform bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios in equilibrium, indicating U immobility in the last 1-1.5 Ma on this spatial scale. It is concluded that the small-scale lithological variations which govern U spatial distribution in the Opalinus Clay are the major factor determining U-234 in situ supply rates, regulating its diffusive fluxes and controlling the observed bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios. A simple box-model is presented to simulate the measured bulk rock U-234/U-238 activity ratios and to give an additional insight into the studied system. (C) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Estimating the patient's contribution during robot-assisted therapy

Robot-assisted therapy has become increasingly common in neurorehabilitation. Sophisticated controllers have been developed for robots to assist and cooperate with the patient. It is difficult for the patient to judge to what extent the robot contributes to the execution of a movement. Therefore, methods to comprehensively quantify the patient's contribution and provide feedback are of key importance. We developed a method comprehensively to estimate the patient's contribution by combining kinematic measures and the motor assistance applied. Inverse dynamic models of the robot and the passive human arm calculate the required torques to move the robot and the arm and build, together with the recorded motor torque, a metric (in percentage) that represents the patient's contribution to the movement. To evaluate the developed metric, 12 nondisabled subjects and 7 patients with neurological problems simulated instructed movement contributions. The results are compared with a common performance metric. The estimation shows very satisfying results for both groups, even though the arm model used was strongly simplified. Displaying this metric to patients during therapy can potentially motivate them to actively participate in the training.