Testing for significance of phase synchronisation dynamics in the EEG

A number of tests exist to check for statistical significance of phase synchronisation within the Electroencephalogram (EEG); however, the majority suffer from a lack of generality and applicability. They may also fail to account for temporal dynamics in the phase synchronisation, regarding synchronisation as a constant state instead of a dynamical process. Therefore, a novel test is developed for identifying the statistical significance of phase synchronisation based upon a combination of work characterising temporal dynamics of multivariate time-series and Markov modelling. We show how this method is better able to assess the significance of phase synchronisation than a range of commonly used significance tests. We also show how the method may be applied to identify and classify significantly different phase synchronisation dynamics in both univariate and multivariate datasets.

A depth-integrated 2D coastal and estuarine model with conformal boundary-fitted mesh generation

Details are given of the development and application of a 2D depth-integrated, conformal boundary-fitted, curvilinear model for predicting the depth-mean velocity field and the spatial concentration distribution in estuarine and coastal waters. A numerical method for conformal mesh generation, based on a boundary integral equation formulation, has been developed. By this method a general polygonal region with curved edges can be mapped onto a regular polygonal region with the same number of horizontal and vertical straight edges and a multiply connected region can be mapped onto a regular region with the same connectivity. A stretching transformation on the conformally generated mesh has also been used to provide greater detail where it is needed close to the coast, with larger mesh sizes further offshore, thereby minimizing the computing effort whilst maximizing accuracy. The curvilinear hydrodynamic and solute model has been developed based on a robust rectilinear model. The hydrodynamic equations are approximated using the ADI finite difference scheme with a staggered grid and the solute transport equation is approximated using a modified QUICK scheme. Three numerical examples have been chosen to test the curvilinear model, with an emphasis placed on complex practical applications

Heritage speaker competence differences, language change and input type: inflected infinitives in Heritage Brazilian Portuguese

It has been argued that colloquial dialects of Brazilian Portuguese (BP) have undergone significant linguistic change resulting in the loss of inflected infinitives (e.g., Pires, 2002, 2006). Since BP adults, at least educated ones, have complete knowledge of inflected infinitives, the implicit claim is that they are transmitted via formal education in the standard dialect. In the present article, I test one of the latent predictions of such claims; namely, the fact that heritage speakers of BP who lack formal education in the standard dialect should never develop native-like knowledge of inflected infinitives. In doing so, I highlight two significant implications (a) that heritage speaker grammars are a good source for testing dialectal variation and language change proposals and (b) incomplete acquisition and/or attrition are not the only sources of heritage language competence differences. Employing the syntactic and semantic tests of Rothman and Iverson (2007), I compare heritage speakers' knowledge to Rothman and Iverson's advanced adult L2 learners and educated native controls. Unlike the latter groups, the data for heritage speakers indicate that they do not have target knowledge of inflected infinitives, lending support to Pires' claims, suggesting that literacy plays a significant role in the acquisition of this grammatical property in BP.

The challenge of validation: assessing the performance of a test of productive vocabulary

This paper assesses the performance of a vocabulary test designed to measure second language productive vocabulary knowledge.The test, Lex30, uses a word association task to elicit vocabulary, and uses word frequency data to measure the vocabulary produced. Here we report firstly on the reliability of the test as measured by a test-retest study, a parallel test forms experiment and an internal consistency measure. We then investigate the construct validity of the test by looking at changes in test performance over time, analyses of correlations with scores on similar tests, and comparison of spoken and written test performance. Last, we examine the theoretical bases of the two main test components: eliciting vocabulary and measuring vocabulary. Interpretations of our findings are discussed in the context of test validation research literature. We conclude that the findings reported here present a robust argument for the validity of the test as a research tool, and encourage further investigation of its validity in an instructional context

A longitudinal analysis of self‐regulation and well-being: avoidance personal goals, avoidance coping, stress generation, and subjective well-being

We conducted 2 longitudinal meditational studies to test an integrative model of goals, stress and coping, and well‐being. Study 1 documented avoidance personal goals as an antecedent of life stressors and life stressors as a partial mediator of the relation between avoidance goals and longitudinal change in subjective well‐being (SWB). Study 2 fully replicated Study 1 and likewise validated avoidance goals as an antecedent of avoidance coping and avoidance coping as a partial mediator of the relation between avoidance goals and longitudinal change in SWB. It also showed that avoidance coping partially mediates the link between avoidance goals and life stressors and validated a sequential meditational model involving both avoidance coping and life stressors. The aforementioned results held when controlling for social desirability, basic traits, and general motivational dispositions. The findings are discussed with regard to the integration of various strands of research on self‐regulation. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2012 APA, all rights reserved)(journal abstract)

Testing the expectations theory of the term structure in threshold models

We test the expectations theory of the term structure of U.S. interest rates in nonlinear systems. These models allow the response of the change in short rates to past values of the spread to depend upon the level of the spread. The nonlinear system is tested against a linear system, and the results of testing the expectations theory in both models are contrasted. We find that the results of tests of the implications of the expectations theory depend on the size and sign of the spread. The long maturity spread predicts future changes of the short rate only when it is high.

Clinical test responses to different orthoptic exercise regimes in typical young adults

Purpose The relative efficiency of different eye exercise regimes is unclear, and in particular the influences of practice, placebo and the amount of effort required are rarely considered. This study measured conventional clinical measures after different regimes in typical young adults. Methods 156 asymptomatic young adults were directed to carry out eye exercises 3 times daily for two weeks. Exercises were directed at improving blur responses (accommodation), disparity responses (convergence), both in a naturalistic relationship, convergence in excess of accommodation, accommodation in excess of convergence, and a placebo regime. They were compared to two control groups, neither of which were given exercises, but the second of which were asked to make maximum effort during the second testing. Results Instruction set and participant effort were more effective than many exercises. Convergence exercises independent of accommodation were the most effective treatment, followed by accommodation exercises, and both regimes resulted in changes in both vergence and accommodation test responses. Exercises targeting convergence and accommodation working together were less effective than those where they were separated. Accommodation measures were prone to large instruction/effort effects and monocular accommodation facility was subject to large practice effects. Conclusions Separating convergence and accommodation exercises seemed more effective than exercising both systems concurrently and suggests that stimulation of accommodation and convergence may act in an additive fashion to aid responses. Instruction/effort effects are large and should be carefully controlled if claims for the efficacy of any exercise regime are to be made.

Testing for bubbles in indirect property price cycles

Speculative bubbles are generated when investors include the expectation of the future price in their information set. Under these conditions, the actual market price of the security, that is set according to demand and supply, will be a function of the future price and vice versa. In the presence of speculative bubbles, positive expected bubble returns will lead to increased demand and will thus force prices to diverge from their fundamental value. This paper investigates whether the prices of UK equity-traded property stocks over the past 15 years contain evidence of a speculative bubble. The analysis draws upon the methodologies adopted in various studies examining price bubbles in the general stock market. Fundamental values are generated using two models: the dividend discount and the Gordon growth. Variance bounds tests are then applied to test for bubbles in the UK property asset prices. Finally, cointegration analysis is conducted to provide further evidence on the presence of bubbles. Evidence of the existence of bubbles is found, although these appear to be transitory and concentrated in the mid-to-late 1990s.

Assumption of knowledge and the Chinese Room in Turing test interrogation

Whilst common sense knowledge has been well researched in terms of intelligence and (in particular) artificial intelligence, specific, factual knowledge also plays a critical part in practice. When it comes to testing for intelligence, testing for factual knowledge is, in every-day life, frequently used as a front line tool. This paper presents new results which were the outcome of a series of practical Turing tests held on 23rd June 2012 at Bletchley Park, England. The focus of this paper is on the employment of specific knowledge testing by interrogators. Of interest are prejudiced assumptions made by interrogators as to what they believe should be widely known and subsequently the conclusions drawn if an entity does or does not appear to know a particular fact known to the interrogator. The paper is not at all about the performance of machines or hidden humans but rather the strategies based on assumptions of Turing test interrogators. Full, unedited transcripts from the tests are shown for the reader as working examples. As a result, it might be possible to draw critical conclusions with regard to the nature of human concepts of intelligence, in terms of the role played by specific, factual knowledge in our understanding of intelligence, whether this is exhibited by a human or a machine. This is specifically intended as a position paper, firstly by claiming that practicalising Turing's test is a useful exercise throwing light on how we humans think, and secondly, by taking a potentially controversial stance, because some interrogators adopt a solipsist questioning style of hidden entities with a view that it is a thinking intelligent human if it thinks like them and knows what they know. The paper is aimed at opening discussion with regard to the different aspects considered.

Motion of the dayside polar cap boundary during substorm cycles: II. Generation of poleward-moving events and polar cap patches by pulses in the magnetopause reconnection rate

Using data from the EISCAT (European Incoherent Scatter) VHF and CUTLASS (Co-operative UK Twin- Located Auroral Sounding System) HF radars, we study the formation of ionospheric polar cap patches and their relationship to the magnetopause reconnection pulses identified in the companion paper by Lockwood et al. (2005). It is shown that the poleward-moving, high-concentration plasma patches observed in the ionosphere by EISCAT on 23 November 1999, as reported by Davies et al. (2002), were often associated with corresponding reconnection rate pulses. However, not all such pulses generated a patch and only within a limited MLT range (11:00–12:00 MLT) did a patch result from a reconnection pulse. Three proposed mechanisms for the production of patches, and of the concentration minima that separate them, are analysed and evaluated: (1) concentration enhancement within the patches by cusp/cleft precipitation; (2) plasma depletion in the minima between the patches by fast plasma flows; and (3) intermittent injection of photoionisation-enhanced plasma into the polar cap. We devise a test to distinguish between the effects of these mechanisms. Some of the events repeat too frequently to apply the test. Others have sufficiently long repeat periods and mechanism (3) is shown to be the only explanation of three of the longer-lived patches seen on this day. However, effect (2) also appears to contribute to some events. We conclude that plasma concentration gradients on the edges of the larger patches arise mainly from local time variations in the subauroral plasma, via the mechanism proposed by Lockwood et al. (2000).

Testing substorm theories: The need for multipoint observations

The requirement for multipoint observations to test theories of magnetospheric substorms is reviewed. A wide variety of such theories have been proposed, but these cannot be properly evaluated because we do not understand how the various features of a substorm are causally linked. In terms of explaining certain substorm features, some theories may be mutually-exclusive rivals. But this is not always the case, making it possible that theories may be either combined into a synthesis model or loosely connected in a more modular view of substorms. Some key questions are defined which require multipoint in-situ measurements, combined with remote sensing observations, of the development and relationship of the major substorm features.

Typographic layout and first impressions: testing how changes in text layout influence reader's judgments of documents

This study explores how the typographic layout of information influences readers' impressions of magazine contents pages. Thirteen descriptors were used in a paired comparison procedure that assessed whether participants' rhetorical impressions of a set of six controlled documents change in relation to variations in layout. The combinations of layout attributes tested were derived from the structural attributes associated with three patterns of typographic differentiation (high, moderate, and low) described in a previous study (see Moys, 2014). The content and the range of stylistic attributes applied to the test material were controlled in order to focus on layout attributes. Triangulation of the quantitative and qualitative data indicates that, even within the experimental confines of limited stylistic differentiation, the layout attributes associated with patterns of high, moderate, and low typographic differentiation do influence readers' rhetorical judgments. In addition, the findings emphasize the importance of considering inter-relationships between clusters of typographic attributes rather than testing isolated variables.

Testing projected wild bee distributions in agricultural habitats: predictive power depends on species traits and habitat type

Species distribution models (SDM) are increasingly used to understand the factors that regulate variation in biodiversity patterns and to help plan conservation strategies. However, these models are rarely validated with independently collected data and it is unclear whether SDM performance is maintained across distinct habitats and for species with different functional traits. Highly mobile species, such as bees, can be particularly challenging to model. Here, we use independent sets of occurrence data collected systematically in several agricultural habitats to test how the predictive performance of SDMs for wild bee species depends on species traits, habitat type, and sampling technique. We used a species distribution modeling approach parametrized for the Netherlands, with presence records from 1990 to 2010 for 193 Dutch wild bees. For each species, we built a Maxent model based on 13 climate and landscape variables. We tested the predictive performance of the SDMs with independent datasets collected from orchards and arable fields across the Netherlands from 2010 to 2013, using transect surveys or pan traps. Model predictive performance depended on species traits and habitat type. Occurrence of bee species specialized in habitat and diet was better predicted than generalist bees. Predictions of habitat suitability were also more precise for habitats that are temporally more stable (orchards) than for habitats that suffer regular alterations (arable), particularly for small, solitary bees. As a conservation tool, SDMs are best suited to modeling rarer, specialist species than more generalist and will work best in long-term stable habitats. The variability of complex, short-term habitats is difficult to capture in such models and historical land use generally has low thematic resolution. To improve SDMs’ usefulness, models require explanatory variables and collection data that include detailed landscape characteristics, for example, variability of crops and flower availability. Additionally, testing SDMs with field surveys should involve multiple collection techniques.

The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory: an open meteorological test bed and challenges of the smart city

Existing urban meteorological networks have an important role to play as test beds for inexpensive and more sustainable measurement techniques that are now becoming possible in our increasingly smart cities. The Birmingham Urban Climate Laboratory (BUCL) is a near-real-time, high-resolution urban meteorological network (UMN) of automatic weather stations and inexpensive, nonstandard air temperature sensors. The network has recently been implemented with an initial focus on monitoring urban heat, infrastructure, and health applications. A number of UMNs exist worldwide; however, BUCL is novel in its density, the low-cost nature of the sensors, and the use of proprietary Wi-Fi networks. This paper provides an overview of the logistical aspects of implementing a UMN test bed at such a density, including selecting appropriate urban sites; testing and calibrating low-cost, nonstandard equipment; implementing strict quality-assurance/quality-control mechanisms (including metadata); and utilizing preexisting Wi-Fi networks to transmit data. Also included are visualizations of data collected by the network, including data from the July 2013 U.K. heatwave as well as highlighting potential applications. The paper is an open invitation to use the facility as a test bed for evaluating models and/or other nonstandard observation techniques such as those generated via crowdsourcing techniques.

Providing extrinsic reward for test performance undermines long-term memory acquisition

Based on numerous studies showing that testing studied material can improve long-term retention more than restudying the same material, it is often suggested that the number of tests in education should be increased to enhance knowledge acquisition. However, testing in real-life educational settings often entails a high degree of extrinsic motivation of learners due to the common practice of placing important consequences on the outcome of a test. Such an effect on the motivation of learners may undermine the beneficial effects of testing on long-term memory because it has been shown that extrinsic motivation can reduce the quality of learning. To examine this issue, participants learned foreign language vocabulary words, followed by an immediate test in which one-third of the words were tested and one-third restudied. To manipulate extrinsic motivation during immediate testing, participants received either monetary reward contingent on test performance or no reward. After 1 week, memory for all words was tested. In the immediate test, reward reduced correct recall and increased commission errors, indicating that reward reduced the number of items that can benefit from successful retrieval. The results in the delayed test revealed that reward additionally reduced the gain received from successful retrieval because memory for initially successfully retrieved words was lower in the reward condition. However, testing was still more effective than restudying under reward conditions because reward undermined long-term memory for concurrently restudied material as well. These findings indicate that providing performance–contingent reward in a test can undermine long-term knowledge acquisition.