Graphical tracking systems revisited: a practical approach to computer scheduling in horticulture

Graphical tracking is a technique for crop scheduling where the actual plant state is plotted against an ideal target curve which encapsulates all crop and environmental characteristics. Management decisions are made on the basis of the position of the actual crop against the ideal position. Due to the simplicity of the approach it is possible for graphical tracks to be developed on site without the requirement for controlled experimentation. Growth models and graphical tracks are discussed, and an implementation of the Richards curve for graphical tracking described. In many cases, the more intuitively desirable growth models perform sub-optimally due to problems with the specification of starting conditions, environmental factors outside the scope of the original model and the introduction of new cultivars. Accurate specification for a biological model requires detailed and usually costly study, and as such is not adaptable to a changing cultivar range and changing cultivation techniques. Fitting of a new graphical track for a new cultivar can be conducted on site and improved over subsequent seasons. Graphical tracking emphasises the current position relative to the objective, and as such does not require the time consuming or system specific input of an environmental history, although it does require detailed crop measurement. The approach is flexible and could be applied to a variety of specification metrics, with digital imaging providing a route for added value. For decision making regarding crop manipulation from the observed current state, there is a role for simple predictive modelling over the short term to indicate the short term consequences of crop manipulation.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression 2. Impact on the mother-child relationship and child outcome

Background: Postnatal depression is associated with adverse child cognitive and socio-emotional outcome. It is not known whether psychological treatment affects the quality of the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Aims: To evaluate the effect of three psychological treatments on the mother-child relationship and child outcome. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193) were assigned randomly to routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy The women and their children, were assessed at 43, [8 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Indications of a positive benefit were limited. All three treatments had a significant benefit on maternal reports of early difficulties in relationships with the infants, counselling gave better infant emotional and behaviour ratings at 18 months and more sensitive early mother-infant interactions. The treatments had no significant impact on maternal management of early infant behaviour problems, security of infant-mother attachment. Infant cognitive development or any child outcome at 5 years. Conclusions: Early intervention was of short-term benefit to the mother-child relationship and infant behaviour problems. More-prolonged intervention may be needed. Health visitors could deliver this.

Controlled trial of the short- and long-term effect of psychological treatment of post-partum depression - 1. Impact on maternal mood!

Background: Psychological interventions for postnatal depression can be beneficial in the short term but their longer-term impact is unknown, Aims To evaluate the long-term effect on maternal mood of three psychological treatments in relation to routine primary care. Method: Women with post-partum depression (n=193)were assigned randomly to one of four conditions: routine primary care, non-directive counselling, cognitive-behavioural therapy or psychodynamic therapy. They were assessed immediately after the treatment phase (at 4.5 months) and at 18 and 60 months post-partum. Results: Compared with the control, ail three treatments had a significant impact at 4.5 months on maternal mood (Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale, EPDS). Only psychodynamic therapy produced a rate of reduction in depression (Structured Clinical interview for DSM III-R) significantly superior to that of the control. The benefit of treatment was no longer apparent by 9 months postpartum, treatment did not reduce subsequent episodes of post-partum depression. Conclusions: Psychological intervention for post-partum depression improves maternal mood (EPDS) in the short term. However, this benefit is not superior to spontaneous remission in the long term.

Forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty using VAR models with short- and long-term economic restrictions: a Monte-Carlo study

Using vector autoregressive (VAR) models and Monte-Carlo simulation methods we investigate the potential gains for forecasting accuracy and estimation uncertainty of two commonly used restrictions arising from economic relationships. The Örst reduces parameter space by imposing long-term restrictions on the behavior of economic variables as discussed by the literature on cointegration, and the second reduces parameter space by imposing short-term restrictions as discussed by the literature on serial-correlation common features (SCCF). Our simulations cover three important issues on model building, estimation, and forecasting. First, we examine the performance of standard and modiÖed information criteria in choosing lag length for cointegrated VARs with SCCF restrictions. Second, we provide a comparison of forecasting accuracy of Ötted VARs when only cointegration restrictions are imposed and when cointegration and SCCF restrictions are jointly imposed. Third, we propose a new estimation algorithm where short- and long-term restrictions interact to estimate the cointegrating and the cofeature spaces respectively. We have three basic results. First, ignoring SCCF restrictions has a high cost in terms of model selection, because standard information criteria chooses too frequently inconsistent models, with too small a lag length. Criteria selecting lag and rank simultaneously have a superior performance in this case. Second, this translates into a superior forecasting performance of the restricted VECM over the VECM, with important improvements in forecasting accuracy ñreaching more than 100% in extreme cases. Third, the new algorithm proposed here fares very well in terms of parameter estimation, even when we consider the estimation of long-term parameters, opening up the discussion of joint estimation of short- and long-term parameters in VAR models.

Aberrant crypt foci and colon cancer: comparison between a short- and medium-term bioassay for colon carcinogenesis using dimethylhydrazine in Wistar rats

Aberrant crypt foci (ACF) in the colon of carcinogen-treated rodents are considered to be the earliest hallmark of colon carcinogenesis. In the present study the relationship between a short-term (4 weeks) and medium-term (30 weeks) assay was assessed in a model of colon carcinogenesis induced by dimethylhydrazine (DMH) in the rat. Six-week-old male Wistar rats were given subcutaneous injections of DMH (40 mg/kg) twice a week for 2 weeks and killed at the end of the 4th or 30th week. ACF were scored for number, distribution pattern along the colon and crypt multiplicity in 0.1% methylene-blue whole-mount preparations. ACF were distinguished from normal crypts by their larger size and elliptical shape. The incidence, distribution and morphology of colon tumors were recorded. The majority of ACF were present in the middle and distal colon of DMH-treated rats and their number increased with time. By the 4th week, 91.5% ACF were composed of one or two crypts and 8.5% had three or more crypts, while by the 30th week 46.9% ACF had three or more crypts. Thus, a progression of ACF consisting of multiple crypts was observed from the 4th to the 30th week. Nine well-differentiated adenocarcinomas were found in 10 rats by the 30th week. Seven tumors were located in the distal colon and two in the middle colon. No tumor was found in the proximal colon. The present data indicate that induction of ACF by DMH in the short-term (4 weeks) assay was correlated with development of well-differentiated adenocarcinomas in the medium-term (30 weeks) assay.

Morphofunctional Alterations in Endocrine Pancreas of Short- and Long-term Dexamethasone-treated Rats

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Errors in nonword repetition: bridging short- and long-term memory

According to the working memory model, the phonological loop is the component of working memory specialized in processing and manipulating limited amounts of speech-based information. The Children's Test of Nonword Repetition (CNRep) is a suitable measure of phonological short-term memory for English-speaking children, which was validated by the Brazilian Children's Test of Pseudoword Repetition (BCPR) as a Portuguese-language version. The objectives of the present study were: i) to investigate developmental aspects of the phonological memory processing by error analysis in the nonword repetition task, and ii) to examine phoneme (substitution, omission and addition) and order (migration) errors made in the BCPR by 180 normal Brazilian children of both sexes aged 4-10, from preschool to 4th grade. The dominant error was substitution [F(3,525) = 180.47; P < 0.0001]. The performance was age-related [F(4,175) = 14.53; P < 0.0001]. The length effect, i.e., more errors in long than in short items, was observed [F(3,519) = 108.36; P < 0.0001]. In 5-syllable pseudowords, errors occurred mainly in the middle of the stimuli, before the syllabic stress [F(4,16) = 6.03; P = 0.003]; substitutions appeared more at the end of the stimuli, after the stress [F(12,48) = 2.27; P = 0.02]. In conclusion, the BCPR error analysis supports the idea that phonological loop capacity is relatively constant during development, although school learning increases the efficiency of this system. Moreover, there are indications that long-term memory contributes to holding memory trace. The findings were discussed in terms of distinctiveness, clustering and redintegration hypotheses.

Inclusive social development: The next generation of policies for overcoming poverty and reducing inequality in Latin America and the Caribbean

Foreword by Alicia Bárcena

Analysis of eruptive and seismic sequences to improve the short-and long-term eruption forecasting

Forecasting the time, location, nature, and scale of volcanic eruptions is one of the most urgent aspects of modern applied volcanology. The reliability of probabilistic forecasting procedures is strongly related to the reliability of the input information provided, implying objective criteria for interpreting the historical and monitoring data. For this reason both, detailed analysis of past data and more basic research into the processes of volcanism, are fundamental tasks of a continuous information-gain process; in this way the precursor events of eruptions can be better interpreted in terms of their physical meanings with correlated uncertainties. This should lead to better predictions of the nature of eruptive events. In this work we have studied different problems associated with the long- and short-term eruption forecasting assessment. First, we discuss different approaches for the analysis of the eruptive history of a volcano, most of them generally applied for long-term eruption forecasting purposes; furthermore, we present a model based on the characteristics of a Brownian passage-time process to describe recurrent eruptive activity, and apply it for long-term, time-dependent, eruption forecasting (Chapter 1). Conversely, in an effort to define further monitoring parameters as input data for short-term eruption forecasting in probabilistic models (as for example, the Bayesian Event Tree for eruption forecasting -BET_EF-), we analyze some characteristics of typical seismic activity recorded in active volcanoes; in particular, we use some methodologies that may be applied to analyze long-period (LP) events (Chapter 2) and volcano-tectonic (VT) seismic swarms (Chapter 3); our analysis in general are oriented toward the tracking of phenomena that can provide information about magmatic processes. Finally, we discuss some possible ways to integrate the results presented in Chapters 1 (for long-term EF), 2 and 3 (for short-term EF) in the BET_EF model (Chapter 4).

Clinical experience with the second-generation 3f Enable sutureless aortic valve prosthesis

The 3f Enable aortic bioprosthesis (ATS Medical, Inc, Minneapolis, Minn) represents a new generation of equine pericardial self-expanding valve designed for sutureless implantation. This study evaluated technical aspects of implantation and safety and effectiveness of the valve in the short term.

Short- and long-term immunological and virological outcome in HIV-infected infants according to the age at antiretroviral treatment initiation

The clinical benefit of antiretroviral therapy in infants is established. In this cohort collaboration, we compare immunological and virological response to treatment started before or after 3 months of age. Early initiation provides a better short-term response, although evolution after 12 months of age is similar in both groups.

Sleep-disordered breathing in acute ischemic stroke and transient ischemic attack: effects on short- and long-term outcome and efficacy of treatment with continuous positive airways pressure - rationale and design of the SAS CARE study

Sleep-disordered breathing represents a risk factor for cardiovascular morbidity and mortality and negatively affects short-term and long-term outcome after an ischemic stroke or transient ischemic attack. The effect of continuous positive airways pressure in patients with sleep-disordered breathing and acute cerebrovascular event is poorly known. The SAS CARE 1 study assesses the effects of sleep-disordered breathing on clinical evolution, vascular functions, and markers within the first three-months after an acute cerebrovascular event. The SAS CARE 2 assesses the effect of continuous positive airways pressure on clinical evolution, cardiovascular events, and mortality as well as vascular functions and markers at 12 and 24 months after acute cerebrovascular event.

Short- and long-term skeletal relapse after mandibular advancement surgery

This study analyzes short- and long-term skeletal relapse after mandibular advancement surgery and determines its contributing factors. Thirty-two consecutive patients were treated for skeletal Class II malocclusion during the period between 1986 and 1989. They all had combined orthodontic and surgical treatment with BSSO and rigid fixation excluding other surgery. Of these, 15 patients (47%) were available for a long-term cephalography in 2000. The measurement was performed based on the serial cephalograms taken preoperatively; 1 week, 6 months and 14 months postoperatively; and at the final evaluation after an average of 12 years. Mean mandibular advancement was 4.1 mm at B-point and 4.9 mm at pogonion. Representing surgical mandibular ramus displacement, gonion moved downwards 2 mm immediately after surgery. During the short-term postoperative period, mandibular corpus length decreased only 0.5 mm, indicating that there was no osteotomy slippage. After the first year of observation, skeletal relapse was 1.3 mm at B-point and pogonion. The relapse continued, reaching a total of 2.3 mm after 12 years, corresponding to 50% of the mandibular advancement. Mandibular ramus length continuously decreased 1 mm during the same observation period, indicating progressive condylar resorption. No significant relationship between the amount of initial surgical advancement and skeletal relapse was found. Preoperative high mandibulo-nasal plane (ML-NL) angle appears to be associated with long-term skeletal relapse.

The use of second-generation antipsychotics and the changes in physical growth in children and adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV.

Second-generation antipsychotics (SGAs) are increasingly prescribed to treat psychiatric symptoms in pediatric patients infected with HIV. We examined the relationship between prescribed SGAs and physical growth in a cohort of youth with perinatally acquired HIV-1 infection. Pediatric AIDS Clinical Trials Group (PACTG), Protocol 219C (P219C), a multicenter, longitudinal observational study of children and adolescents perinatally exposed to HIV, was conducted from September 2000 until May 2007. The analysis included P219C participants who were perinatally HIV-infected, 3-18 years old, prescribed first SGA for at least 1 month, and had available baseline data prior to starting first SGA. Each participant prescribed an SGA was matched (based on gender, age, Tanner stage, baseline body mass index [BMI] z score) with 1-3 controls without antipsychotic prescriptions. The main outcomes were short-term (approximately 6 months) and long-term (approximately 2 years) changes in BMI z scores from baseline. There were 236 participants in the short-term and 198 in the long-term analysis. In linear regression models, youth with SGA prescriptions had increased BMI z scores relative to youth without antipsychotic prescriptions, for all SGAs (short-term increase = 0.192, p = 0.003; long-term increase = 0.350, p < 0.001), and for risperidone alone (short-term = 0.239, p = 0.002; long-term = 0.360, p = 0.001). Participants receiving both protease inhibitors (PIs) and SGAs showed especially large increases. These findings suggest that growth should be carefully monitored in youth with perinatally acquired HIV who are prescribed SGAs. Future research should investigate the interaction between PIs and SGAs in children and adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV infection.

Heuristic decomposition and LP-based scheduling in make-and-pack production

In this paper, we are concerned about the short-term scheduling of industrial make-and-pack production processes. The planning problem consists in minimizing the production makespan while meeting given end-product demands. Sequence-dependent changeover times, multi-purpose storage units with finite capacities, quarantine times, batch splitting, partial equipment connectivity, material transfer times, and a large number of operations contribute to the complexity of the problem. Known MILP formulations cover all technological constraints of such production processes, but only small problem instances can be solved in reasonable CPU times. In this paper, we develop a heuristic in order to tackle large instances. Under this heuristic, groups of batches are scheduled iteratively using a novel MILP formulation; the assignment of the batches to the groups and the scheduling sequence of the groups are determined using a priority rule. We demonstrate the applicability by means of a real-world production process.