Discrete choice experiment response rates : A meta-analysis

Funding: Verity Watson acknowledges financial support from the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates. The funders had no role in the study design; in the collection, analysis and interpretation of data; in the writing of the report; and in the decision to submit the article for publication. Acknowledgements: We thank Marjon van der Pol, Mandy Ryan and Rainer Schulz for helpful comments and suggestions throughout the project. We also thank Karen Gerard and Tim Bolt for comparing the results of our systematic review with a similar systematic review they are conducting at the same time. We would like to thank Douglas Olley for excellent research assistance.

Finite element model updating of a RC building considering seismic response trends

Peer reviewed

Detection of seismic damage in buildings using time series analysis and pattern recognition

Peer reviewed

Transcriptomic Analysis of the Host Response and Innate Resilience to Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli Infection in Humans.

BACKGROUND: Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) is a globally prevalent cause of diarrhea. Though usually self-limited, it can be severe and debilitating. Little is known about the host transcriptional response to infection. We report the first gene expression analysis of the human host response to experimental challenge with ETEC. METHODS: We challenged 30 healthy adults with an unattenuated ETEC strain, and collected serial blood samples shortly after inoculation and daily for 8 days. We performed gene expression analysis on whole peripheral blood RNA samples from subjects in whom severe symptoms developed (n = 6) and a subset of those who remained asymptomatic (n = 6) despite shedding. RESULTS: Compared with baseline, symptomatic subjects demonstrated significantly different expression of 406 genes highlighting increased immune response and decreased protein synthesis. Compared with asymptomatic subjects, symptomatic subjects differentially expressed 254 genes primarily associated with immune response. This comparison also revealed 29 genes differentially expressed between groups at baseline, suggesting innate resilience to infection. Drug repositioning analysis identified several drug classes with potential utility in augmenting immune response or mitigating symptoms. CONCLUSIONS: There are statistically significant and biologically plausible differences in host gene expression induced by ETEC infection. Differential baseline expression of some genes may indicate resilience to infection.

Individual Differences in the Neural Response to Personal Goal Pursuit Success and Failure: A Developmental Analysis

Regulatory focus theory (RFT) proposes two different social-cognitive motivational systems for goal pursuit: a promotion system, which is organized around strategic approach behaviors and "making good things happen," and a prevention system, which is organized around strategic avoidance and "keeping bad things from happening." The promotion and prevention systems have been extensively studied in behavioral paradigms, and RFT posits that prolonged perceived failure to make progress in pursuing promotion or prevention goals can lead to ineffective goal pursuit and chronic distress (Higgins, 1997).

Research has begun to focus on uncovering the neural correlates of the promotion and prevention systems in an attempt to differentiate them at the neurobiological level. Preliminary research suggests that the promotion and prevention systems have both distinct and overlapping neural correlates (Eddington, Dolcos, Cabeza, Krishnan, & Strauman, 2007; Strauman et al., 2013). However, little research has examined how individual differences in regulatory focus develop and manifest. The development of individual differences in regulatory focus is particularly salient during adolescence, a crucial topic to explore given the dramatic neurodevelopmental and psychosocial changes that take place during this time, especially with regard to self-regulatory abilities. A number of questions remain unexplored, including the potential for goal-related neural activation to be modulated by (a) perceived proximity to goal attainment, (b) individual differences in regulatory orientation, specifically general beliefs about one's success or failure in attaining the two kinds of goals, (c) age, with a particular focus on adolescence, and (d) homozygosity for the Met allele of the catechol-O-methyltransferase (COMT) Val158Met polymorphism, a naturally occurring genotype which has been shown to impact prefrontal cortex activation patterns associated with goal pursuit behaviors.

This study explored the neural correlates of the promotion and prevention systems through the use of a priming paradigm involving rapid, brief, masked presentation of individually selected promotion and prevention goals to each participant while being scanned. The goals used as priming stimuli varied with regard to whether participants reported that they were close to or far away from achieving them (i.e. a "match" versus a "mismatch" representing perceived success or failure in personal goal pursuit). The study also assessed participants' overall beliefs regarding their relative success or failure in attaining promotion and prevention goals, and all participants were genotyped for the COMT Val158Met polymorphism.

A number of significant findings emerged. Both promotion and prevention priming were associated with activation in regions associated with self-referential cognition, including the left medial prefrontal cortex, cuneus, and lingual gyrus. Promotion and prevention priming were also associated with distinct patterns of neural activation; specifically, left middle temporal gyrus activation was found to be significantly greater during prevention priming. Activation in response to promotion and prevention goals was found to be modulated by self-reports of both perceived proximity to goal achievement and goal orientation. Age also had a significant effect on activation, such that activation in response to goal priming became more robust in the prefrontal cortex and in default mode network regions as a function of increasing age. Finally, COMT genotype also modulated the neural response to goal priming both alone and through interactions with regulatory focus and age. Overall, these findings provide further clarification of the neural underpinnings of the promotion and prevention systems as well as provide information about the role of development and individual differences at the personality and genetic level on activity in these neural systems.

Realisable climate change narratives in public discourse: an East/West comparative analysis of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) as a response to global climate change

This thesis looks at how non-experts develop an opinion on climate change, and how those opinions could be changed by public discourse. I use Hubert Dreyfus’ account of skill acquisition to distinguish between experts and non-experts. I then use a combination of Walter Fisher’s narrative paradigm and the hermeneutics of Paul Ricœur to explore how non-experts form opinions, and how public narratives can provide a point of critique. In order to develop robust narratives, they must be financially realistic. I therefore consider the burgeoning field of environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) analysis as a way of informing realistic public narratives. I identify a potential problem with this approach: the Western assumptions of ESG analysis might make for public narratives that are not convincing to a non-Western audience. I then demonstrate how elements of the Chinese tradition, the Confucian, Neo-Confucian, and Daoist schools, as presented by David Hall and Roger Ames, can provide alternative assumptions to ESG analysis so that the public narratives will be more culturally adaptable. This research contributes to the discipline by bringing disparate traditions together in a unique way, into a practical project with a view towards applications. I conclude by considering avenues for further research.

Stable isotopes of benthic foraminifera from Site ODP 184-1146

We generated a high resolution (~8 ky) benthic record from a West Pacific marginal basin to investigate the detailed structure and spectral characteristics of deep water isotope fluctuations during the middle Miocene. The benthic record from ODP Site 1146 allows unprecedented resolution of the structure of the middle Miocene delta13C excursion, as well as tighter control on the chronology of climatic events. Spectral analysis of the variance in the delta18O and delta13C records from ODP Site 1146 reveals spectral power concentrated in the eccentricity band (400-, ~100-ky) over the time interval between 13 and 17 Ma. The amplitude evolution in the 400-ky band is strikingly similar to that of the long eccentricity in Laskar's solution. There is an abrupt switch to the obliquity band in the delta18O record at -14.9 Ma, suggesting a shift in the ocean/climate response to orbital forcing (from low latitude eccentricity to high latitude obliquity forcing). The obliquity signal is pervasive in the delta18O record until -13.9 Ma, when a sharp increase in delta18O values indicates a major climatic transition. Comparison of delta18O and delta13C profiles from DSDP Site 588 (SW Pacific Ocean), ODP Site 761 (E Indian Ocean) and ODP Site 1146 (South China Sea) reveals significantly cooler deep water in the NE Indian Ocean throughout the middle Miocene and a restricted deep water exchange between the Pacific Ocean and Indian Ocean.

Results of the pollen analysis of the Dyanushka peat sediments K7/P2

A 415cm thick permafrost peat section from the Verkhoyansk Mountains was radiocarbon-dated and studied using palaeobotanical and sedimentological approaches. Accumulation of organic-rich sediment commenced in a former oxbow lake, detached from a Dyanushka River meander during the Younger Dryas stadial, at ~12.5 kyr BP. Pollen data indicate that larch trees, shrub alder and dwarf birch were abundant in the vegetation at that time. Local presence of larch during the Younger Dryas is documented by well-preserved and radiocarbon-dated needles and cones. The early Holocene pollen assemblages reveal high percentages of Artemisia pollen, suggesting the presence of steppe-like communities around the site, possibly in response to a relatively warm and dry climate ~11.4-11.2 kyr BP. Both pollen and plant macrofossil data demonstrate that larch woods were common in the river valley. Remains of charcoal and pollen of Epilobium indicate fire events and mark a hiatus ~11.0-8.7 kyr BP. Changes in peat properties, C31/C27 alkane ratios and radiocarbon dates suggest that two other hiatuses occurred ~8.2-6.9 and ~6.7-0.6 kyr BP. Prior to 0.6 kyr BP, a major fire destroyed the mire surface. The upper 60 cm of the studied section is composed of aeolian sands modified in the uppermost part by the modern soil formation. For the first time, local growth of larch during the Younger Dryas has been verified in the western foreland of the Verkhoyansk Mountains (~170km south of the Arctic Circle), thus increasing our understanding of the quick reforestation of northern Eurasia by the early Holocene.

Assessment of the cortisol awakening response: Real-time analysis and curvilinear effects of sample timing inaccuracy

The cortisol awakening response (CAR) is typically measured in the domestic setting. Moderate sample timing inaccuracy has been shown to result in erroneous CAR estimates and such inaccuracy has been shown partially to explain inconsistency in the CAR literature. The need for more reliable measurement of the CAR has recently been highlighted in expert consensus guidelines where it was pointed out that less than 6% of published studies provided electronic-monitoring of saliva sampling time in the post-awakening period. Analyses of a merged data-set of published studies from our laboratory are presented. To qualify for selection, both time of awakening and collection of the first sample must have been verified by electronic-monitoring and sampling commenced within 15 min of awakening. Participants (n = 128) were young (median age of 20 years) and healthy. Cortisol values were determined in the 45 min post-awakening period on 215 sampling days. On 127 days, delay between verified awakening and collection of the first sample was less than 3 min (‘no delay’ group); on 45 days there was a delay of 4–6 min (‘short delay’ group); on 43 days the delay was 7–15 min (‘moderate delay’ group). Cortisol values for verified sampling times accurately mapped on to the typical post-awakening cortisol growth curve, regardless of whether sampling deviated from desired protocol timings. This provides support for incorporating rather than excluding delayed data (up to 15 min) in CAR analyses. For this population the fitted cortisol growth curve equation predicted a mean cortisol awakening level of 6 nmols/l (±1 for 95% CI) and a mean CAR rise of 6 nmols/l (±2 for 95% CI). We also modelled the relationship between real delay and CAR magnitude, when the CAR is calculated erroneously by incorrectly assuming adherence to protocol time. Findings supported a curvilinear hypothesis in relation to effects of sample delay on the CAR. Short delays of 4–6 min between awakening and commencement of saliva sampling resulted an overestimated CAR. Moderate delays of 7–15 min were associated with an underestimated CAR. Findings emphasize the need to employ electronic-monitoring of sampling accuracy when measuring the CAR in the domestic setting.

Point-and-shoot: rapid quantitative detection methods for on-site food fraud analysis – moving out of the laboratory and into the food supply chain

Major food adulteration and contamination events occur with alarming regularity and are known to be episodic, with the question being not if but when another large-scale food safety/integrity incident will occur. Indeed, the challenges of maintaining food security are now internationally recognised. The ever increasing scale and complexity of food supply networks can lead to them becoming significantly more vulnerable to fraud and contamination, and potentially dysfunctional. This can make the task of deciding which analytical methods are more suitable to collect and analyse (bio)chemical data within complex food supply chains, at targeted points of vulnerability, that much more challenging. It is evident that those working within and associated with the food industry are seeking rapid, user-friendly methods to detect food fraud and contamination, and rapid/high-throughput screening methods for the analysis of food in general. In addition to being robust and reproducible, these methods should be portable and ideally handheld and/or remote sensor devices, that can be taken to or be positioned on/at-line at points of vulnerability along complex food supply networks and require a minimum amount of background training to acquire information rich data rapidly (ergo point-and-shoot). Here we briefly discuss a range of spectrometry and spectroscopy based approaches, many of which are commercially available, as well as other methods currently under development. We discuss a future perspective of how this range of detection methods in the growing sensor portfolio, along with developments in computational and information sciences such as predictive computing and the Internet of Things, will together form systems- and technology-based approaches that significantly reduce the areas of vulnerability to food crime within food supply chains. As food fraud is a problem of systems and therefore requires systems level solutions and thinking.

Functional analysis of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway in the LRF CLL4 trial: blockade at the level of p21 is associated with short response duration.

PURPOSE: This study sought to establish whether functional analysis of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway adds to the information provided by currently available prognostic factors in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) requiring frontline chemotherapy. EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN: Cryopreserved blood mononuclear cells from 278 patients entering the LRF CLL4 trial comparing chlorambucil, fludarabine, and fludarabine plus cyclophosphamide were analyzed for ATM-p53-p21 pathway defects using an ex vivo functional assay that uses ionizing radiation to activate ATM and flow cytometry to measure upregulation of p53 and p21 proteins. Clinical endpoints were compared between groups of patients defined by their pathway status. RESULTS: ATM-p53-p21 pathway defects of four different types (A, B, C, and D) were identified in 194 of 278 (70%) samples. The type A defect (high constitutive p53 expression combined with impaired p21 upregulation) and the type C defect (impaired p21 upregulation despite an intact p53 response) were each associated with short progression-free survival. The type A defect was associated with chemoresistance, whereas the type C defect was associated with early relapse. As expected, the type A defect was strongly associated with TP53 deletion/mutation. In contrast, the type C defect was not associated with any of the other prognostic factors examined, including TP53/ATM deletion, TP53 mutation, and IGHV mutational status. Detection of the type C defect added to the prognostic information provided by TP53/ATM deletion, TP53 mutation, and IGHV status. CONCLUSION: Our findings implicate blockade of the ATM-p53-p21 pathway at the level of p21 as a hitherto unrecognized determinant of early disease recurrence following successful cytoreduction.

Geochemical analysis at ODP Site 207-1261 from the Demerara Rise in the western equatorial Atlantic

A high-resolution geochemical record of a 120 cm black shale interval deposited during the Coniacian-Santonian Oceanic Anoxic Event 3 (ODP Leg 207, Site 1261, Demerara Rise) has been constructed to provide detailed insight into rapid changes in deep ocean and sediment paleo-redox conditions. High contents of organic matter, sulfur and redox-sensitive trace metals (Cd, Mo, V, Zn), as well as continuous lamination, point to deposition under consistently oxygen-free and largely sulfidic bottom water conditions. However, rapid and cyclic changes in deep ocean redox are documented by short-term (~15-20 ka) intervals with decreased total organic carbon (TOC), S and redox-sensitive trace metal contents, and in particular pronounced phosphorus peaks (up to 2.5 wt% P) associated with elevated Fe oxide contents. Sequential iron and phosphate extractions confirm that P is dominantly bound to iron oxides and incorporated into authigenic apatite. Preservation of this Fe-P coupling in an otherwise sulfidic depositional environment (as indicated by Fe speciation and high amounts of sulfurized organic matter) may be unexpected, and provides evidence for temporarily non-sulfidic bottom waters. However, there is no evidence for deposition under oxic conditions. Instead, sulfidic conditions were punctuated by periods of anoxic, non-sulfidic bottom waters. During these periods, phosphate was effectively scavenged during precipitation of iron (oxyhydr)oxides in the upper water column, and was subsequently deposited and largely preserved at the sea floor. After ~15-25 ka, sulfidic bottom water conditions were re-established, leading to the initial precipitation of CdS, ZnS and pyrite. Subsequently, increasing concentrations of H2S in the water column led to extensive formation of sulfurized organic matter, which effectively scavenged particle-reactive Mo complexes (thiomolybdates). At Site 1261, sulfidic bottom waters lasted for ?90-100 ka, followed by another period of anoxic, non-sulfidic conditions lasting for ~15-20 ka. The observed cyclicity at the lower end of the redox scale may have been triggered by repeated incursions of more oxygenated surface- to mid-waters from the South Atlantic resulting in a lowering of the oxic-anoxic chemocline in the water column. Alternatively, sea water sulfate might have been stripped by long-lasting high rates of sulfate reduction, removing the ultimate source for HS**- production.

Functional analysis of the 5′ flanking region of the human G6PC3 gene: regulation of promoter activity by glucose, pyruvate, AMP kinase and the pentose phosphate pathway

G6PC3 is a widely expressed isoform of glucose-6-phosphatase, found in many foetal and adult tissues. Mutations in this gene cause developmental abnormalities and severe neutropenia due to abolition of glucose recycling between the cytoplasm and endoplasmic reticulum. Low G6PC3 expression as a result of promoter polymorphisms or dysregulation could produce similar outcomes. Here we investigated the regulation of human G6PC3 promoter activity. HeLa and H4IIE cells were transiently transfected with G6PC3 promoter coupled to the firefly luciferase gene, and promoter activity was measured by dual luciferase assay. Activity was highest in a 453 bp segment of the G6PC3 promoter, from − 455 to − 3 relative to the transcriptional start site. This promoter was unresponsive to glucostatic hormones. Its activity increased significantly between 1 and 5.5 mM glucose, and was not elevated further by glucose concentrations up to 25 mM. Pyruvate increased its activity, but β-hydroxybutyrate and sodium acetate did not. Promoter activity was reduced by inhibitors of hexokinase, glyceraldehyde phosphate dehydrogenase and the oxidative branch of the pentose phosphate pathway, but not by a transketolase inhibitor. Deletion of two adjacent Enhancer-boxes (− 274 to − 279 and − 299 to − 304) reduced promoter activity and abolished the glucose effect, suggesting they could function as a glucose response element. Deletion of an additional downstream 140 bp (− 140 to − 306) restored activity, but not the glucose response, suggesting the presence of repressor elements in this region. 5-Aminoimidazole-4-carboxamide 1-β-d-ribofuranoside (AICAR) reduced promoter activity, showing dependence on AMP-kinase. Regulation of the G6PC3 promoter is thus radically different to that of the hepatic isoform, G6PC. It is sensitive to carbohydrate, but not to fatty acid metabolites, and at much lower physiological concentrations. Based on these findings, we speculate that reduced G6PC3 expression could occur during hypoglycemic episodes in vivo, which are common in utero and in the postnatal period. If such episodes lower G6PC3 expression they could place the foetus or infant at risk of impaired immune function and development, and this possibility requires further examination both in vitro and in vivo.