Modelling methodology and forecast failure

We analyse by simulation the impact of model-selection strategies (sometimes called pre-testing) on forecast performance in both constant-and non-constant-parameter processes. Restricted, unrestricted and selected models are compared when either of the first two might generate the data. We find little evidence that strategies such as general-to-specific induce significant over-fitting, or thereby cause forecast-failure rejection rates to greatly exceed nominal sizes. Parameter non-constancies put a premium on correct specification, but in general, model-selection effects appear to be relatively small, and progressive research is able to detect the mis-specifications.

Success and failure of grassroots innovations for addressing climate change: the case of the Transition Movement

Grassroots innovations emerge as networks generating innovative solutions for climate change adaptation and mitigation. However, it is unclear if grassroots innovations can be successful in responding to climate change. Little evidence exists on replication, international comparisons are rare, and research tends to overlook discontinued responses in favour of successful ones. We take the Transition Movement as a case study of a rapidly spreading transnational grassroots network, and include both active and non-active local transition initiatives. We investigate the replication of grassroots innovations in different contexts with the aim to uncover general patterns of success and failure, and identify questions for future research. An online survey was carried out in 23 countries (N=276). The data analysis entailed testing the effect of internal and contextual factors of success as drawn from the existing literature, and the identification of clusters of transition initiatives with similar internal and contextual factor configurations. Most transition initiatives consider themselves successful. Success is defined along the lines of social connectivity and empowerment, and external environmental impact. We find that less successful transition initiatives might underestimate the importance of contextual factors and material resources in influencing success. We also find that their diffusion is linked to the combination of local-global learning processes, and that there is an incubation period during which a transition initiative is consolidated. Transition initiatives seem capable of generalising organisational principles derived from unique local experiences that seem to be effective in other local contexts. However, the geographical locations matter with regard to where transition initiatives take root and the extent of their success, and ‘place attachment’ may have a role in the diffusion of successful initatives. We suggest that longitudinal comparative studies can advance our understanding in this regard, as well as inform the changing nature of the definition of success at different stages of grassroots innovation development, and the dynamic nature of local and global linkages.

Probiotic administration attenuates myocardial hypertrophy and heart failure following myocardial infarction in the rat

Background—Probiotics are extensively used to promote gastrointestinal health and emerging evidence suggests that their beneficial properties can extend beyond the local environment of the gut. Here, we determined whether oral probiotic administration can alter the progression of post-infarction heart failure. Methods and Results—Rats were subjected to six weeks of sustained coronary artery occlusion and administered the probiotic Lactobacillus rhamnosus GR-1 or placebo in the drinking water ad libitum. Culture and 16s rRNA sequencing showed no evidence of GR-1 colonization or a significant shift in the composition of the cecal microbiome. However, animals administered GR-1 exhibited a significant attenuation of left ventricular hypertrophy based on tissue weight assessment as well as gene expression of atrial natriuretic peptide. Moreover, these animals demonstrated improved hemodynamic parameters reflecting both improved systolic and diastolic left ventricular function. Serial echocardiography revealed significantly improved left ventricular parameters throughout the six week follow-up period including a marked preservation of left ventricular ejection fraction as well as fractional shortening. Beneficial effects of GR-1 were still evident in those animals in which GR-1 was withdrawn at four weeks suggesting persistence of the GR-1 effects following cessation of therapy. Investigation of mechanisms showed a significant increase in the leptin to adiponectin plasma concentration ratio in rats subjected to coronary ligation which was abrogated by GR-1. Metabonomic analysis showed differences between sham control and coronary artery ligated hearts particularly with respect to preservation of myocardial taurine levels. Conclusions—The study suggests that probiotics offer promise as a potential therapy for the attenuation of heart failure.

Experiential learning from entrepreneurial failure

This paper examines the phenomenon of 'entrepreneurial failure' from a UK regionally-based qualitative study, being that of explanations for failure provided by entrepreneurial CEOs. This paper contends that there are valuable lessons to be learned, from explanations provided of failure, that may reduce the very high recorded mortality rates of entrepreneurial businesses, in particular that of nascent entrepreneurs. Our intention is to make nascent entrepreneurs and their advisors more aware of the consequences of the likely personal risks they will be assuming, especially before they embark on their new business ventures. This paper focuses strongly on entrepreneurial 'personality characteristics' which can detrimentally influence the quality of decision-making. We provide data of some 'experiential learning from failure' from our case studies, that were compiled from interviews with the former directors, following their completion of the questionnaire survey. We describe 'failed entrepreneurs' who have successfully restarted their businesses as 'phoenix' entrepreneurs.

Entrepreneurial failure and economic crisis: an historical perspective

This chapter analyses the major UK economic crises that have occurred since the speculative bubbles of the seventeenth century. It integrates insights from economic history and business history to analyse both the general economic conditions and the specific business and financial practices that led to these crises. The analysis suggests a significant reinterpretation of the evidence – one that questions economists’ conventional views.

Activation of c-Jun N-terminal kinases and p38-mitogen-activated protein kinases in human heart failure secondary to ischaemic heart disease.

Three well-characterized mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) subfamilies are expressed in rodent and rabbit hearts, and are activated by pathophysiological stimuli. We have determined and compared the expression and activation of these MAPKs in donor and failing human hearts. The amount and activation of MAPKs was assessed in samples from the left ventricles of 4 unused donor hearts and 12 explanted hearts from patients with heart failure secondary to ischaemic heart disease. Total MAPKs or dually phosphorylated (activated) MAPKs were detected by Western blotting and MAPK activities were measured by in gel kinase assays. As in rat heart, c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNKs) were detected in human hearts as bands corresponding to 46 and 54 kDa; p38-MAPK(s) was detected as a band corresponding to approximately 40 kDa, and extracellularly regulated kinases, ERK1 and ERK2, were detected as 44- and 42-kDa bands respectively. The total amounts of 54 kDa JNK, p38-MAPK and ERK2 were similar in all samples, although 46-kDa JNK was reduced in the failing hearts. However, the mean activities of JNKs and p38-MAPK(s) were significantly higher in failing heart samples than in those from donor hearts (P<0.05). There was no significant difference in phosphorylated (activated) ERKs between the two groups. In conclusion, JNKs, p38-MAPK(s) and ERKs are expressed in the human heart and the activities of JNKs and p38-MAPK(s) were increased in heart failure secondary to ischaemic heart disease. These data indicate that JNKs and p38-MAPKs may be important in human cardiac pathology.

Scalable and fault tolerant failure detection and consensus

Future extreme-scale high-performance computing systems will be required to work under frequent component failures. The MPI Forum's User Level Failure Mitigation proposal has introduced an operation, MPI_Comm_shrink, to synchronize the alive processes on the list of failed processes, so that applications can continue to execute even in the presence of failures by adopting algorithm-based fault tolerance techniques. This MPI_Comm_shrink operation requires a fault tolerant failure detection and consensus algorithm. This paper presents and compares two novel failure detection and consensus algorithms. The proposed algorithms are based on Gossip protocols and are inherently fault-tolerant and scalable. The proposed algorithms were implemented and tested using the Extreme-scale Simulator. The results show that in both algorithms the number of Gossip cycles to achieve global consensus scales logarithmically with system size. The second algorithm also shows better scalability in terms of memory and network bandwidth usage and a perfect synchronization in achieving global consensus.

Targeting myocardial remodelling to develop novel therapies for heart failure: a position paper from the Working Group on Myocardial Function of the European Society of Cardiology

The failing heart is characterized by complex tissue remodelling involving increased cardiomyocyte death, and impairment of sarcomere function, metabolic activity, endothelial and vascular function, together with increased inflammation and interstitial fibrosis. For years, therapeutic approaches for heart failure (HF) relied on vasodilators and diuretics which relieve cardiac workload and HF symptoms. The introduction in the clinic of drugs interfering with beta-adrenergic and angiotensin signalling have ameliorated survival by interfering with the intimate mechanism of cardiac compensation. Current therapy, though, still has a limited capacity to restore muscle function fully, and the development of novel therapeutic targets is still an important medical need. Recent progress in understanding the molecular basis of myocardial dysfunction in HF is paving the way for development of new treatments capable of restoring muscle function and targeting specific pathological subsets of LV dysfunction. These include potentiating cardiomyocyte contractility, increasing cardiomyocyte survival and adaptive hypertrophy, increasing oxygen and nutrition supply by sustaining vessel formation, and reducing ventricular stiffness by favourable extracellular matrix remodelling. Here, we consider drugs such as omecamtiv mecarbil, nitroxyl donors, cyclosporin A, SERCA2a (sarcoplasmic/endoplasmic Ca(2 +) ATPase 2a), neuregulin, and bromocriptine, all of which are currently in clinical trials as potential HF therapies, and discuss novel molecular targets with potential therapeutic impact that are in the pre-clinical phases of investigation. Finally, we consider conceptual changes in basic science approaches to improve their translation into successful clinical applications.

Nuclear accumulation of myocyte muscle LIM protein is regulated by heme oxygenase 1 and correlates with cardiac function in the transition to failure

Impaired mechanosensing leads to heart failure and we have previously shown that a decreased ratio of cytoplasmic to nuclear CSRP3/Muscle LIM protein (MLP ratio) is associated with a loss of mechanosensitivity. Here we tested whether passive or active stress/strain was important in modulating the MLP ratio and determined whether this correlated with heart function during the transition to failure. We exposed cultured neonatal rat myocytes to 10% cyclic mechanical stretch at 1 Hz, or electrically paced myocytes at 6.8 V (1 Hz) for 48 h. The MLP ratio decreased 50% (P < 0.05, n = 4) only in response to electrical pacing, suggesting impaired mechanosensitivity. Inhibition of contractility with 10 μM blebbistatin resulted in a ∼3 fold increase in the MLP ratio (n = 8, P < 0.05), indicating that myocyte contractility regulates nuclear MLP. Inhibition of histone deacetylase (HDAC) signaling with trichostatin A increased nuclear MLP following passive stretch, suggesting that HDACs block MLP nuclear accumulation. Inhibition of heme-oxygenase1 (HO-1) activity with PPZII blocked MLP nuclear accumulation. To examine how mechanosensitivity changes during the transition to heart failure, we studied a guinea pig model of angiotensin II infusion (400 ng/kg/min) over 12 weeks. Using subcellular fractionation we showed that the MLP ratio increased 88% (n = 4, P < 0.01) during compensated hypertrophy, but decreased significantly during heart failure (P < 0.001, n = 4). The MLP ratio correlated significantly with the E/A ratio (r = 0.71, P < 0.01 n = 12), a clinical measure of diastolic function. These data indicate for the first time that myocyte mechanosensitivity as indicated by the MLP ratio is regulated primarily by myocyte contractility via HO-1 and HDAC signaling.

Civilian casualties – do we really care? The failure of the revolution in military affairs of non-lethal weapons in the U.S., Russia and Israel

Causing civilian casualties during military operations has become a much politicised topic in international relations since the Second World War. Since the last decade of the 20th century, different scholars and political analysts have claimed that human life is valued more and more among the general international community. This argument has led many researchers to assume that democratic culture and traditions, modern ethical and moral issues have created a desire for a world without war or, at least, a demand that contemporary armed conflicts, if unavoidable, at least have to be far less lethal forcing the military to seek new technologies that can minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage. Non-Lethal Weapons (NLW) – weapons that are intended to minimise civilian casualties and collateral damage – are based on the technology that, during the 1990s, was expected to revolutionise the conduct of warfare making it significantly less deadly. The rapid rise of interest in NLW, ignited by the American military twenty five years ago, sparked off an entirely new military, as well as an academic, discourse concerning their potential contribution to military success on the 21st century battlefields. It seems, however, that except for this debate, very little has been done within the military forces themselves. This research suggests that the roots of this situation are much deeper than the simple professional misconduct of the military establishment, or the poor political behaviour of political leaders, who had sent them to fight. Following the story of NLW in the U.S., Russia and Israel this research focuses on the political and cultural aspects that have been supposed to force the military organisations of these countries to adopt new technologies and operational and organisational concepts regarding NLW in an attempt to minimise enemy civilian casualties during their military operations. This research finds that while American, Russian and Israeli national characters are, undoubtedly, products of the unique historical experience of each one of these nations, all of three pay very little regard to foreigners’ lives. Moreover, while it is generally argued that the international political pressure is a crucial factor that leads to the significant reduction of harmed civilians and destroyed civilian infrastructure, the findings of this research suggest that the American, Russian and Israeli governments are well prepared and politically equipped to fend off international criticism. As the analyses of the American, Russian and Israeli cases reveal, the political-military leaderships of these countries have very little external or domestic reasons to minimise enemy civilian casualties through fundamental-revolutionary change in their conduct of war. In other words, this research finds that employment of NLW have failed because the political leadership asks the militaries to reduce the enemy civilian casualties to a politically acceptable level, rather than to the technologically possible minimum; as in the socio-cultural-political context of each country, support for the former appears to be significantly higher than for the latter.

Lineage-Negative Bone Marrow Cells Protect Against Chronic Renal Failure

Progressive renal failure continues to be a challenge. The use of bone marrow cells represents a means of meeting that challenge. We used lineage-negative (Lin(-)) cells to test the hypothesis that Lin(-) cell treatment decreases renal injury. Syngeneic Fischer 344 rats were divided into four groups: sham ( laparotomy only, untreated); Nx (five-sixth nephrectomy and untreated); NxLC1 (five-sixth nephrectomy and receiving 2 x 10(6) Lin(-) cells on postnephrectomy day 15); and NxLC3 (five-sixth nephrectomy and receiving 2 x 10(6) Lin(-) cells on postnephrectomy days 15, 30, and 45). On postoperative day 16, renal mRNA expression of interleukin (IL)-1 beta, tumor necrosis factor-alpha, and IL-6 was lower in NxLC rats than in Nx rats. On postnephrectomy day 60, NxLC rats presented less proteinuria, glomerulosclerosis, anemia, renal infiltration of immune cells, and protein expression of monocyte chemoattractant protein-1, as well as decreased interstitial area. Immunostaining for proliferating cell nuclear antigen showed that, in comparison with sham rats, Nx rats presented greater cell proliferation, whereas NxLC1 rats and NxLC3 rats presented less cell proliferation than did Nx rats. Protein expression of the cyclin-dependent kinase inhibitor p21 and of vascular endothelial growth factor increased after nephrectomy and decreased after Lin(-) cell treatment. On postnephrectomy day 120, renal function (inulin clearance) was significantly better in Lin(-) cell-treated rats than in untreated rats. Lin(-) cell treatment significantly improved survival. These data suggest that Lin(-) cell treatment protects against chronic renal failure. STEM CELLS 2009; 27: 682-692

Sympathetic hyperactivity differentially affects skeletal muscle mass in developing heart failure: role of exercise training

Bacurau AV, Jardim MA, Ferreira JC, Bechara LR, Bueno CR Jr, Alba-Loureiro TC, Negrao CE, Casarini DE, Curi R, Ramires PR, Moriscot AS, Brum PC. Sympathetic hyperactivity differentially affects skeletal muscle mass in developing heart failure: role of exercise training. J Appl Physiol 106: 1631-1640, 2009. First published January 29, 2009; doi:10.1152/japplphysiol.91067.2008.-Sympathetic hyperactivity (SH) is a hallmark of heart failure (HF), and several lines of evidence suggest that SH contributes to HF-induced skeletal myopathy. However, little is known about the influence of SH on skeletal muscle morphology and metabolism in a setting of developing HF, taking into consideration muscles with different fiber compositions. The contribution of SH on exercise tolerance and skeletal muscle morphology and biochemistry was investigated in 3- and 7-mo-old mice lacking both alpha(2A)- and alpha(2C)-adrenergic receptor subtypes (alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice) that present SH with evidence of HF by 7 mo. To verify whether exercise training (ET) would prevent skeletal muscle myopathy in advanced-stage HF, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice were exercised from 5 to 7 mo of age. At 3 mo, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice showed no signs of HF and preserved exercise tolerance and muscular norepinephrine with no changes in soleus morphology. In contrast, plantaris muscle of alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice displayed hypertrophy and fiber type shift (IIA -> IIX) paralleled by capillary rarefaction, increased hexokinase activity, and oxidative stress. At 7 mo, alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice displayed exercise intolerance and increased muscular norepinephrine, muscular atrophy, capillary rarefaction, and increased oxidative stress. ET reestablished alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mouse exercise tolerance to 7-mo-old wild-type levels and prevented muscular atrophy and capillary rarefaction associated with reduced oxidative stress. Collectively, these data provide direct evidence that SH is a major factor contributing to skeletal muscle morphological changes in a setting of developing HF. ET prevented skeletal muscle myopathy in alpha(2A)/alpha(2C)ARKO mice, which highlights its importance as a therapeutic tool for HF.

Neuromuscular electrical stimulation improves GLUT-4 and morphological characteristics of skeletal muscle in rats with heart failure

Aim: Changes in skeletal muscle morphology and metabolism are associated with limited functional capacity in heart failure, which can be attenuated by neuromuscular electrical stimulation (ES). The purpose of the present study was to analyse the effects of ES upon GLUT-4 protein content, fibre structure and vessel density of the skeletal muscle in a rat model of HF subsequent to myocardial infarction. Methods: Forty-four male Wistar rats were assigned to one of four groups: sham (S), sham submitted to ES (S+ES), heart failure (HF) and heart failure submitted to ES (HF+ES). The rats in the ES groups were submitted to ES of the left leg during 20 days (2.5 kHz, once a day, 30 min, duty cycle 50%- 15 s contraction/15 s rest). After this period, the left tibialis anterior muscle was collected from all the rats for analysis. Results: HF+ES rats showed lower values of lung congestion when compared with HF rats (P = 0.0001). Although muscle weight was lower in HF rats than in the S group, thus indicating hypotrophy, 20 days of ES led to their recovery (P < 0.0001). In both groups submitted to ES, there was an increase in muscle vessel density (P < 0.04). Additionally, heart failure determined a 49% reduction in GLUT-4 protein content (P < 0.03), which was recovered by ES (P < 0.01). Conclusion: In heart failure, ES improves morphological changes and raises GLUT-4 content in skeletal muscle.