A general class of adaptative strategies

We exhibit and characterize an entire class of simple adaptive strategies,in the repeated play of a game, having the Hannan-consistency property: In the long-run, the player is guaranteed an average payoff as large as the best-reply payoff to the empirical distribution of play of the otherplayers; i.e., there is no "regret." Smooth fictitious play (Fudenberg and Levine [1995]) and regret-matching (Hart and Mas-Colell [1998]) areparticular cases. The motivation and application of this work come from the study of procedures whose empirical distribution of play is, in thelong-run, (almost) a correlated equilibrium. The basic tool for the analysis is a generalization of Blackwell's [1956a] approachability strategy for games with vector payoffs.

Assigning proctors to exams with scatter search

In this paper we present an algorithm to assign proctors toexams. This NP-hard problem is related to the generalized assignmentproblem with multiple objectives. The problem consists of assigningteaching assistants to proctor final exams at a university. We formulatethis problem as a multiobjective integer program (IP) with a preferencefunction and a workload-fairness function. We then consider also a weightedobjective that combines both functions. We develop a scatter searchprocedure and compare its outcome with solutions found by solving theIP model with CPLEX 6.5. Our test problems are real instances from aUniversity in Spain.

Take-the-best and other simple strategies: Why and when they work 'well' in binary choice

The effectiveness of decision rules depends on characteristics of bothrules and environments. A theoretical analysis of environments specifiesthe relative predictive accuracies of the lexicographic rule 'take-the-best'(TTB) and other simple strategies for binary choice. We identify threefactors: how the environment weights variables; characteristics of choicesets; and error. For cases involving from three to five binary cues, TTBis effective across many environments. However, hybrids of equal weights(EW) and TTB models are more effective as environments become morecompensatory. In the presence of error, TTB and similar models do not predictmuch better than a naïve model that exploits dominance. We emphasizepsychological implications and the need for more complete theories of theenvironment that include the role of error.

Recent misconceptions about the "database search problem": a probabilistic analysis using Bayesian networks

This paper analyses and discusses arguments that emerge from a recent discussion about the proper assessment of the evidential value of correspondences observed between the characteristics of a crime stain and those of a sample from a suspect when (i) this latter individual is found as a result of a database search and (ii) remaining database members are excluded as potential sources (because of different analytical characteristics). Using a graphical probability approach (i.e., Bayesian networks), the paper here intends to clarify that there is no need to (i) introduce a correction factor equal to the size of the searched database (i.e., to reduce a likelihood ratio), nor to (ii) adopt a propositional level not directly related to the suspect matching the crime stain (i.e., a proposition of the kind 'some person in (outside) the database is the source of the crime stain' rather than 'the suspect (some other person) is the source of the crime stain'). The present research thus confirms existing literature on the topic that has repeatedly demonstrated that the latter two requirements (i) and (ii) should not be a cause of concern.

Costly search and design

Firms compete by choosing both a price and a design from a family of designs thatcan be represented as demand rotations. Consumers engage in costly sequential searchamong firms. Each time a consumer pays a search cost he observes a new offering. Anoffering consists of a price quote and a new good, where goods might vary in the extentto which they are good matches for the consumer. In equilibrium, only two design-styles arise: either the most niche where consumers are likely to either love or loathethe product, or the broadest where consumers are likely to have similar valuations. Inequilibrium, different firms may simultaneously offer both design-styles. We performcomparative statics on the equilibrium and show that a fall in search costs can lead tohigher industry prices and profits and lower consumer surplus. Our analysis is relatedto discussions of how the internet has led to the prevalence of niche goods and the"long tail" phenomenon.

Implementation, elimination of weakly dominated strategies and evolutionary dynamics

This paper is concerned with the realism of mechanisms that implementsocial choice functions in the traditional sense. Will agents actually playthe equilibrium assumed by the analysis? As an example, we study theconvergence and stability properties of Sj\"ostr\"om's (1994) mechanism, onthe assumption that boundedly rational players find their way to equilibriumusing monotonic learning dynamics and also with fictitious play. Thismechanism implements most social choice functions in economic environmentsusing as a solution concept the iterated elimination of weakly dominatedstrategies (only one round of deletion of weakly dominated strategies isneeded). There are, however, many sets of Nash equilibria whose payoffs maybe very different from those desired by the social choice function. Withmonotonic dynamics we show that many equilibria in all the sets ofequilibria we describe are the limit points of trajectories that havecompletely mixed initial conditions. The initial conditions that lead tothese equilibria need not be very close to the limiting point. Furthermore,even if the dynamics converge to the ``right'' set of equilibria, it stillcan converge to quite a poor outcome in welfare terms. With fictitious play,if the agents have completely mixed prior beliefs, beliefs and play convergeto the outcome the planner wants to implement.

Database construction and Peptide identification strategies for proteogenomic studies on sequenced genomes.

Since the advent of high-throughput DNA sequencing technologies, the ever-increasing rate at which genomes have been published has generated new challenges notably at the level of genome annotation. Even if gene predictors and annotation softwares are more and more efficient, the ultimate validation is still in the observation of predicted gene product( s). Mass-spectrometry based proteomics provides the necessary high throughput technology to show evidences of protein presence and, from the identified sequences, confirmation or invalidation of predicted annotations. We review here different strategies used to perform a MS-based proteogenomics experiment with a bottom-up approach. We start from the strengths and weaknesses of the different database construction strategies, based on different genomic information (whole genome, ORF, cDNA, EST or RNA-Seq data), which are then used for matching mass spectra to peptides and proteins. We also review the important points to be considered for a correct statistical assessment of the peptide identifications. Finally, we provide references for tools used to map and visualize the peptide identifications back to the original genomic information.

Appraising and selecting strategies to combat and mitigate desertification based on stakeholder knowledge and globalbest practices in Cape Verde Archipelago

Cape Verde is considered part of Sahelian Africa, where drought and desertification are common occurrences. The main activity of the rural population is rain-fed agriculture, which over time has been increasingly challenged by high temporal and spatial rainfall variability, lack of inputs, limited land area, fragmentation of land, steep slopes, pests, lack of mechanization and loss of top soil by water erosion. Human activities, largely through poor farming practices and deforestation (Gomez, 1989) have accelerated natural erosion processes, shifting the balance between soil erosion and soil formation (Norton, 1987). According to previous studies, vegetation cover is one of the most important factors in controlling soil loss (Cyr et al., 1995; Hupy, 2004; Zhang et al., 2004; Zhou et al., 2006). For this reason, reforestation is a touchstone of the Cape Verdean policy to combat desertification. After Independence in 1975, the Cape Verde government had pressing and closely entangled environmental and socio-economic issues to address, as long-term desertification had resulted in a lack of soil cover, severe soil erosion and a scarcity of water resources and fuel wood. Across the archipelago, desertification was resulting from a variety of processes including poor farming practices, soil erosion by water and wind, soil and water salinity in coastal areas due to over pumping and seawater intrusion, drought and unplanned urbanization (DGA-MAAP, 2004). All these issues directly affected socio-economic vulnerability in rural areas, where about 70% of people depended directly or indirectly on agriculture in 1975. By becoming part of the Inter- State Committee for the Fight against Drought in the Sahel in 1975, the government of Cape Verde gained structured support to address these issues more efficiently. Presentday policies and strategies were defined on the basis of rational use of resources and human efforts and were incorporated into three subsequent national plans: the National Action Plan for Development (NDP) (1982–1986), the NDP (1986–1990) and the NDP (1991–1995) (Carvalho

Optimal information transmission in organizations: Search and congestion

We propose a stylized model of a problem-solving organization whoseinternal communication structure is given by a fixed network. Problemsarrive randomly anywhere in this network and must find their way to theirrespective specialized solvers by relying on local information alone.The organization handles multiple problems simultaneously. For this reason,the process may be subject to congestion. We provide a characterization ofthe threshold of collapse of the network and of the stock of foatingproblems (or average delay) that prevails below that threshold. We buildupon this characterization to address a design problem: the determinationof what kind of network architecture optimizes performance for any givenproblem arrival rate. We conclude that, for low arrival rates, the optimalnetwork is very polarized (i.e. star-like or centralized ), whereas it islargely homogenous (or decentralized ) for high arrival rates. We also showthat, if an auxiliary assumption holds, the transition between these twoopposite structures is sharp and they are the only ones to ever qualify asoptimal.

Soil and Water Conservation Strategies in Cape Verde (Cabo Verde in Portuguese) and Their Impacts on Livelihoods - An Overview from the Ribeira Seca Watershed

Severe land degradation has strongly affected both people’s livelihood and the environment in Cape Verde (Cabo Verde in Portuguese), a natural resource poor country. Despite the enormous investment in soil and water conservation measures (SWC or SLM), which are visible throughout the landscape, and the recognition of their benefits, their biophysical and socioeconomic impacts have been poorly assessed and scientifically documented. This paper contributes to filling this gap, by bringing together insights from literature and policy review, field survey and participatory assessment in the Ribeira Seca Watershed through a concerted approach devised by the DESIRE project (the “Desire approach”). Specifically, we analyze government strategies towards building resilience against the harsh conditions, analyze the state of land degradation and its drivers, survey and map the existing SWC measures, and assess their effectiveness against land degradation, on crop yield and people’s livelihood. We infer that the relative success of Cape Verde in tackling desertification and rural poverty owes to an integrated governance strategy that comprises raising awareness, institutional framework development, financial resource allocation, capacity building, and active participation of rural communities. We recommend that specific, scientific-based monitoring and assessment studies be carried out on the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of SLM and that the “Desire approach” be scaled-up to other watersheds in the country.

Internet use by patients with psychiatric disorders in search for general and medical informations

BACKGROUND: Internet is commonly used by the general population, notably for health information-seeking. There has been little research into its use by patients treated for a psychiatric disorder. AIM: To evaluate the use of internet by patients with psychiatric disorders in searching for general and medical information. METHODS: In 2007, 319 patients followed in a university hospital psychiatric out-patient clinic, completed a 28-items self-administered questionnaire. RESULTS: Two hundred patients surveyed were internet users. Most of them (68.5%) used internet in order to find health-related information. Only a small part of the patients knew and used criteria reflecting the quality of contents of the websites consulted. Knowledge of English and private Internet access were the factors significantly associated with the search of information on health on Internet. CONCLUSIONS: Internet is currently used by patients treated for psychiatric disorders, especially for medical seeking information.

Historical contingency affects signaling strategies and competitive abilities in evolving populations of simulated robots.

One of the key innovations during the evolution of life on earth has been the emergence of efficient communication systems, yet little is known about the causes and consequences of the great diversity within and between species. By conducting experimental evolution in 20 independently evolving populations of cooperatively foraging simulated robots, we found that historical contingency in the occurrence order of novel phenotypic traits resulted in the emergence of two distinct communication strategies. The more complex foraging strategy was less efficient than the simpler strategy. However, when the 20 populations were placed in competition with each other, the populations with the more complex strategy outperformed the populations with the less complex strategy. These results demonstrate a tradeoff between communication efficiency and robustness and suggest that stochastic events have important effects on signal evolution and the outcome of competition between distinct populations.

A search theory of money and commerce with Neoclassical production

This paper advances a highly tractable model with search theoretic foundations for money and neoclassical growth. In the model, manufacturingand commerce are distinct and separate activities. In manufacturing,goods are efficiently produced combining capital and labor. In commerce,goods are exchanged in bilateral meetings. The model is applied to studythe effects of inßation on capital accumulation and welfare. With realisticparameters, inflation has large negative effects on welfare even though itraises capital and output. In contrast, with cash-in-advance, a deviceinformally motivated with bilateral trading, inflation depresses capitaland output and has a negligible effect on welfare.

A simple optimised search heuristic for the job-shop scheduling problem

This paper presents a simple Optimised Search Heuristic for the Job Shop Scheduling problem that combines a GRASP heuristic with a branch-and-bound algorithm. The proposed method is compared with similar approaches and leads to better results in terms of solution quality and computing times.