Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.

Soil fungal communities of grasslands are environmentally structured at a regional scale in the Alps.

Studying patterns of species distributions along elevation gradients is frequently used to identify the primary factors that determine the distribution, diversity and assembly of species. However, despite their crucial role in ecosystem functioning, our understanding of the distribution of below-ground fungi is still limited, calling for more comprehensive studies of fungal biogeography along environmental gradients at various scales (from regional to global). Here, we investigated the richness of taxa of soil fungi and their phylogenetic diversity across a wide range of grassland types along a 2800 m elevation gradient at a large number of sites (213), stratified across a region of the Western Swiss Alps (700 km(2)). We used 454 pyrosequencing to obtain fungal sequences that were clustered into operational taxonomic units (OTUs). The OTU diversity-area relationship revealed uneven distribution of fungal taxa across the study area (i.e. not all taxa are everywhere) and fine-scale spatial clustering. Fungal richness and phylogenetic diversity were found to be higher in lower temperatures and higher moisture conditions. Climatic and soil characteristics as well as plant community composition were related to OTU alpha, beta and phylogenetic diversity, with distinct fungal lineages suggesting distinct ecological tolerances. Soil fungi, thus, show lineage-specific biogeographic patterns, even at a regional scale, and follow environmental determinism, mediated by interactions with plants.

Insufficient coping behavior under chronic stress and vulnerability to psychiatric disorders

Epidemiological data indicate that 75% of subjects with major psychiatric disorders have their onset in the age range of 17-24 years. An estimated 35-50% of college and university students drop out prematurely due to insufficient coping skills under chronic stress, while 85% of students receiving a psychiatric diagnosis withdraw from college/university prior to the completion of their education. In this study we aimed at developing standardized means for identifying students with insufficient coping skills under chronic stress and at risk for mental health problems. A sample of 1,217 college students from 3 different sites in the U.S. and Switzerland completed 2 self-report questionnaires: the Coping Strategies Inventory "COPE" and the Zurich Health Questionnaire "ZHQ" which assesses "regular exercises", "consumption behavior", "impaired physical health", "psychosomatic disturbances", and "impaired mental health". The data were subjected to structure analyses by means of a Neural Network approach. We found 2 highly stable and reproducible COPE scales that explained the observed inter-individual variation in coping behavior sufficiently well and in a socio-culturally independent way. The scales reflected basic coping behavior in terms of "activity-passivity" and "defeatism-resilience", and in the sense of stable, socio-culturally independent personality traits. Correlation analyses carried out for external validation revealed a close relationship between high scores on the defeatism scale and impaired physical and mental health. This underlined the role of insufficient coping behavior as a risk factor for physical and mental health problems. The combined COPE and ZHQ instruments appear to constitute powerful screening tools for insufficient coping skills under chronic stress and for risks of mental health problems.

Analytical validation of a lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus real-time RT-PCR assay.

Lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) is a rare cause of central nervous system disease in humans. Screening by real-time RT-PCR assay is of interest in the case of aseptic meningitis of unknown etiology. A specific LCMV real-time RT-PCR assay, based on the detection of genomic sequences of the viral nucleoprotein (NP), was developed to assess the presence of LCMV in cerebrospinal fluids (CSF) sent for viral screening to a Swiss university hospital laboratory. A 10-fold dilution series assay using a plasmid containing the cDNA of the viral NP of the LCMV isolate Armstrong (Arm) 53b demonstrated the high sensitivity of the assay with a lowest detection limit of ≤50 copies per reaction. High sensitivity was confirmed by dilution series assays in a pool of human CSF using four different LCMV isolates (Arm53b, WE54, Traub and E350) with observed detection limits of ≤10PFU/ml (Arm53b and WE54) and 1PFU/ml (Traub and E350). Analysis of 130 CSF showed no cases of acute infection. The absence of positive cases was confirmed by a published PCR assay detecting all Old World arenaviruses. This study validates a specific and sensitive real-time RT-PCR assay for the diagnosis of LCMV infections. Results showed that LCMV infections are extremely rare in hospitalized patients western in Switzerland.

The "help" question doesn't help when screening for major depression: external validation of the three-question screening test for primary care patients managed for physical complaints.

BACKGROUND: Major depression, although frequent in primary care, is commonly hidden behind multiple physical complaints that are often the first and only reason for patient consultation. Major depression can be screened by two validated questions that are easier to use in primary care than the full DSM-IV criteria. A third question, called the "help" question, improves the specificity without apparently decreasing the sensitivity of this screening procedure. We validated the abbreviated screening procedure for major depression with and without the "help" question in primary care patients managed for a physical complaint. METHODS: This diagnostic accuracy study used data from a cohort study called SODA (for SOmatisation Depression Anxiety ) conducted by 24 general practitioners (GPs) in western Switzerland that included patients over 18 years of age with at least one physical complaint at index consultation. Major depression was identified with the full Patient Health Questionnaire. GPs were asked to screen patients for major depression with the three screening questions one year after inclusion. RESULTS: Out of 937 patients with at least one physical complaint, 751 were eligible one year after index consultation. Major depression was diagnosed in 69/724 (9.5%) patients. The sensitivity and specificity of the two-question method alone were 91.3% (95% confidence interval 81.4-96.4%) and 65.0% (95% confidence interval 61.2-68.6%), respectively. Adding the "help" question decreased the sensitivity (59.4% ; 95% confidence interval 47.0-70.9%) but improved the specificity (88.2% ; 95% confidence interval 85.4-90.5%) of the three-question method. CONCLUSIONS: The use of two screening questions for major depression was associated with high sensitivity and low specificity in primary care patients presenting a physical complaint. Adding the "help" question improved the specificity but clearly decreased the sensitivity; when using the "help" question; four out of ten patients with depression will be missed, compared to only one out of ten with the two-question method. Therefore, the "help" question is not useful as a screening question, but may help discussing management strategies.

Inter- and intrahemispheric dissociations in ideomotor apraxia: a large-scale lesion-symptom mapping study in subacute brain-damaged patients.

Pantomimes of object use require accurate representations of movements and a selection of the most task-relevant gestures. Prominent models of praxis, corroborated by functional neuroimaging studies, predict a critical role for left parietal cortices in pantomime and advance that these areas store representations of tool use. In contrast, lesion data points to the involvement of left inferior frontal areas, suggesting that defective selection of movement features is the cause of pantomime errors. We conducted a large-scale voxel-based lesion-symptom mapping analyses with configural/spatial (CS) and body-part-as-object (BPO) pantomime errors of 150 left and right brain-damaged patients. Our results confirm the left hemisphere dominance in pantomime. Both types of error were associated with damage to left inferior frontal regions in tumor and stroke patients. While CS pantomime errors were associated with left temporoparietal lesions in both stroke and tumor patients, these errors appeared less associated with parietal areas in stroke than in tumor patients and less associated with temporal in tumor than stroke patients. BPO errors were associated with left inferior frontal lesions in both tumor and stroke patients. Collectively, our results reveal a left intrahemispheric dissociation for various aspects of pantomime, but with an unspecific role for inferior frontal regions.

Polymerase chain reaction with two molecular targets in mucosal leishmaniasis' diagnosis: a validation study

We validated the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) with a composite reference standard in 61 patients clinically suspected of having mucosal leishmaniasis, 36 of which were cases and 25 were non-cases according to this reference standard. Patient classification and test application were carried out independently by two blind observers. One pair of primers was used to amplify a fragment of 120 bp in the conserved region of kDNA and another pair was used to amplify the internal transcript spacers (ITS) rDNA. PCR showed 68.6% (95% CI 59.2-72.6) sensitivity and 92% (95% CI 78.9-97.7) specificity; positive likelihood ratio: 8.6 (95% CI 2.8-31.3) and negative likelihood ratio: 0.3 (95% CI 0.3-0.5), when kDNA molecular target was amplified. The test performed better on sensitivity using this target compared to the ITS rDNA molecular target which showed 40% (95% CI 31.5-42.3) sensitivity and 96% (95% CI 84.1-99.3) specificity; positive likelihood ratio: 10 (95% CI 2.0-58.8) and negative likelihood ratio: 0.6 (95% CI 0.6-0.8). The inter-observer agreement was excellent for both tests. Based upon results obtained and due to low performance of conventional methods for diagnosing mucosal leishmaniasis, we consider PCR with kDNA as molecular target is a useful diagnostic test and the ITS rDNA molecular target is useful when the aim is to identify species.

Large-scale gene-centric analysis identifies novel variants for coronary artery disease.

Coronary artery disease (CAD) has a significant genetic contribution that is incompletely characterized. To complement genome-wide association (GWA) studies, we conducted a large and systematic candidate gene study of CAD susceptibility, including analysis of many uncommon and functional variants. We examined 49,094 genetic variants in ∼2,100 genes of cardiovascular relevance, using a customised gene array in 15,596 CAD cases and 34,992 controls (11,202 cases and 30,733 controls of European descent; 4,394 cases and 4,259 controls of South Asian origin). We attempted to replicate putative novel associations in an additional 17,121 CAD cases and 40,473 controls. Potential mechanisms through which the novel variants could affect CAD risk were explored through association tests with vascular risk factors and gene expression. We confirmed associations of several previously known CAD susceptibility loci (eg, 9p21.3:p<10(-33); LPA:p<10(-19); 1p13.3:p<10(-17)) as well as three recently discovered loci (COL4A1/COL4A2, ZC3HC1, CYP17A1:p<5×10(-7)). However, we found essentially null results for most previously suggested CAD candidate genes. In our replication study of 24 promising common variants, we identified novel associations of variants in or near LIPA, IL5, TRIB1, and ABCG5/ABCG8, with per-allele odds ratios for CAD risk with each of the novel variants ranging from 1.06-1.09. Associations with variants at LIPA, TRIB1, and ABCG5/ABCG8 were supported by gene expression data or effects on lipid levels. Apart from the previously reported variants in LPA, none of the other ∼4,500 low frequency and functional variants showed a strong effect. Associations in South Asians did not differ appreciably from those in Europeans, except for 9p21.3 (per-allele odds ratio: 1.14 versus 1.27 respectively; P for heterogeneity = 0.003). This large-scale gene-centric analysis has identified several novel genes for CAD that relate to diverse biochemical and cellular functions and clarified the literature with regard to many previously suggested genes.

Validation of Logistic Regression Models for Landslide Susceptibility Maps

A wide range of numerical models and tools have been developed over the last decades to support the decision making process in environmental applications, ranging from physical models to a variety of statistically-based methods. In this study, a landslide susceptibility map of a part of Three Gorges Reservoir region of China was produced, employing binary logistic regression analyses. The available information includes the digital elevation model of the region, geological map and different GIS layers including land cover data obtained from satellite imagery. The landslides were observed and documented during the field studies. The validation analysis is exploited to investigate the quality of mapping.

Development and experimental validation of a finite element model of total ankle replacement.

Total ankle replacement remains a less satisfactory solution compared to other joint replacements. The goal of this study was to develop and validate a finite element model of total ankle replacement, for future testing of hypotheses related to clinical issues. To validate the finite element model, an experimental setup was specifically developed and applied on 8 cadaveric tibias. A non-cemented press fit tibial component of a mobile bearing prosthesis was inserted into the tibias. Two extreme anterior and posterior positions of the mobile bearing insert were considered, as well as a centered one. An axial force of 2kN was applied for each insert position. Strains were measured on the bone surface using digital image correlation. Tibias were CT scanned before implantation, after implantation, and after mechanical tests and removal of the prosthesis. The finite element model replicated the experimental setup. The first CT was used to build the geometry and evaluate the mechanical properties of the tibias. The second CT was used to set the implant position. The third CT was used to assess the bone-implant interface conditions. The coefficient of determination (R-squared) between the measured and predicted strains was 0.91. Predicted bone strains were maximal around the implant keel, especially at the anterior and posterior ends. The finite element model presented here is validated for future tests using more physiological loading conditions.