Az összekapcsoltság hatása a rendszerkockázatra homogén bankrendszerben

A pénzügyi rendszerkockázat legfontosabb formája a modern pénzügyi hálózatokban bekövetkező fertőzések veszélye. A cikkben egy olyan bankrendszert vizsgálunk, ahol homogének a bankok (mérlegfőösszegük és preferenciájuk azonos) és egymás eszközeit tulajdonolják. Ezen egyszerűsítő feltevéseket felhasználva egy analitikusan kiszámítható mérőszámot adunk a rendszerkockázatból adódó veszteségre, amely a bankok várható veszteségét adja meg egy rendszerbeli intézmény csődje esetén. E mérőszám tulajdonságait vizsgálva azt találjuk, hogy a banki eszközök volatilitásának növekedése, illetve a saját tőke arányának csökkenése emeli a lehetséges rendszerkockázati veszteséget, továbbá, hogy a bankrendszer felépítésének (a banki eszközök kereszttulajdonlásának) hatása kettős. Egyrészt az összekapcsoltság növelése erősíti a diverzifikációs hatást, mivel az adott bank más bankok eszközeivel fedezheti veszteségeit. Másrészt ha már eleve szorosan együttműködnek a bankok, akkor az összekapcsoltság további erősítése a fertőzés megnövekedett esélye következtében növeli a rendszerkockázatból fakadó potenciális veszteséget.

A „Nők-Férfiak 40” nyugdíjkoncepció pénzügyi következményeinek szemléltetése a felosztó-kirovó nyugdíjrendszerben

A tanulmányban öt modell segítségével elemezzük a nyugdíjrendszereket és a címben említett nyugdíjkorhatár-csökkentő koncepció közvetlen pénzügyi hatásait. Az első részben pénzügyileg változatlan környezetet tételeztünk fel, amikor a kereset állandó, nincs kamat, és mindenki előre meghatározott ideig él (determinisztikus modellek). A tényleges halandósági adatokkal (sztochasztikus modell) a jelenlegi felosztó-kirovó nyugdíjrendszer idealizált, de a ténylegestől nem nagyon eltérő leírását adjuk meg. A halandóság figyelembe vételének legfontosabb következményeaz életbiztosítási hatás, amelyet a nyugdíjkorhatárig elhunytak befizetései eredményeznek a nyugdíjat megélők számára: minden befizetett forintjuk 1,5-2-szer annyit ér. A második részben a keresetek növekedhetnek, és van kamat. Itt rámutatunk a tőkefedezeti nyugdíjrendszereknek arra az előnyére, hogy azonos mértékű nyugdíjhoz a felosztó-kirovó nyugdíjrendszerben szükséges nyugdíjjárulék harmada-fele elegendő, mert a nyugdíjakat fedező tőke fele-kétharmada a befizetések hozamából származik. Ennek a ténynek az értelmezése rávilágít annak a rejtett államadósságnak a létezésére, amely minden felosztó-kirovó nyugdíjrendszerben benne van, és minden egyes aktív munkavállaló havonta fizeti a kamatait, amikor két-háromszor annyi járulékot fizet, mint lehetne. A harmadik részben megmutatjuk, hogy amennyiben mind a nők, mind a férfiak akik 40 éves munkaviszony után nyugdíjba mehetnének, az külön-külön a jelenlegi nyugdíjak 9-12%-os, együttesen pedig 19%-os általános körű csökkentését tenné szükségessé ahhoz, hogy a járulékbefizetések és a nyugdíjkifizetések egyensúlya fennmaradjon.

A vállalatok nemzetköziesedésének vizsgálata Kelet-Közép-Európában makrogazdasági módszerekkel

Jelen tanulmányukban a szerzők elemzik a beérkező külföldi közvetlentőke-befektetések (FDI) és a nemzetgazdasági beruházások kapcsolatát, valamint annak gazdasági fejlettséggel (GNI) való viszonyát a kelet- közép-európai régió példáján. A vonatkozó nemzetközi irodalom áttekintésével arra is keresik a választ, hogy segíti-e a magyar és a kelet-közép-európai vállalatok nemzetköziesedését a beáramló FDI, illetve megfigyelhető-e a beáramló (IFDI) és a kiáramló (OFDI) közötti összefüggés. Ezt követően visszatérnek arra, hogy a beáramló (IFDI) és a kiáramló (OFDI) adatok elemzése alapján az irodalom áttekintésében exponált kérdésre milyen válasz adható.

Törpékből óriások? – Kelet-közép-európai elektronikai multik

A közép- és kelet-európai régióból viszonylag későn, a kilencvenes évek vége felé kezdtek a helyi tulajdonban levő vállalatok külföldön befektetni, ennek ellenére már vannak viszonylag jelentős helyi multinacionális vállalatok. A cikk a kelet-közép-európai, helyi tulajdonban levő elektronikai multinacionális vállalatokat vizsgálja. A téma érdekességét az adja, hogy a vizsgált iparágban kiemelkedően erős a verseny, magas a tőke- és K+F-intenzitás, így ennek megfelelően kevéssé várjuk, hogy a régiós vállalatok számottevő külföldi közvetlentőke-befektetéseket valósítsanak meg. A cikk az egyik első elemzés a közép- és kelet-európai régió helyi tulajdonban levő elektronikai multinacionális vállalatainak vizsgálatában. A tanulmány a kifelé irányuló elektronikai közvetlentőke-befektetések makro- és vállalati adatain, és más, az "Emerging Markets Global Players" projekt adatbázisából származó információkon alapul. A cikk felépítése a következő: a rövid elméleti hátteret és a vonatkozó irodalmat bemutató részeket a cikkben használt módszertant ismertető fejezet követi. Ezután következik a makroadatok elemzése, majd ennek alapján a régió elektronikai multinacionális vállalataira vonatkozó mikroszintű adatok bemutatása és vizsgálata. Az utolsó rész tartalmazza a legfontosabb következtetéseket és a lehetséges további kutatási irányok rövid ismertetését.

Modelos de condutividade térmica em rochas silicáticas, com ênfase em rochas da província Borborema, NE do Brasil

A practical approach to estimate rock thermal conductivities is to use rock models based just on the observed or expected rock mineral content. In this study, we evaluate the performances of the Krischer and Esdorn (KE), Hashin and Shtrikman (HS), classic Maxwell (CM), Maxwell-Wiener (MW), and geometric mean (GM) models in reproducing the measures of thermal conductivity of crystalline rocks.We used 1,105 samples of igneous and metamorphic rocks collected in outcroppings of the Borborema Province, Northeastern Brazil. Both thermal conductivity and petrographic modal analysis (percent volumes of quartz, K-feldspar, plagioclase, and sum of mafic minerals) were done. We divided the rocks into two groups: (a) igneous and ortho-derived (or meta-igneous) rocks and (b) metasedimentary rocks. The group of igneous and ortho-derived rocks (939 samples) covers most the lithologies de_ned in the Streckeisen diagram, with higher concentrations in the fields of granite, granodiorite, and tonalite. In the group of metasedimentary rocks (166 samples), it were sampled representative lithologies, usually of low to medium metamorphic grade. We treat the problem of reproducing the measured values of rock conductivity as an inverse problem where, besides the conductivity measurements, the volume fractions of the constituent minerals are known and the effective conductivities of the constituent minerals and model parameters are unknown. The key idea was to identify the model (and its associated estimates of effective mineral conductivities and parameters) that better reproduces the measures of rock conductivity. We evaluate the model performances by the quantity  that is equal to the percentage of number of rock samples which estimated conductivities honor the measured conductivities within the tolerance of 15%. In general, for all models, the performances were quite inferior for the metasedimentary rocks (34% <  < 65%) as compared with the igneous and ortho-derived rocks (51% <  < 70%). For igneous and ortho-derived rocks, all model performances were very similar ( = 70%), except the GM-model that presented a poor performance (51% <  < 65%); the KE and HS-models ( = 70%) were slightly superior than the CM and MW-models ( = 67%). The quartz content is the dominant factor in explaining the rock conductivity for igneous and ortho-derived rocks; in particular, using the MW-model the solution is in practice vi UFRN/CCET– Dissertação de mestrado the series association of the quartz content. On the other hand, for metasedimentary rocks, model performances were different and the performance of the KEmodel ( = 65%) was quite superior than the HS ( = 53%), CM (34% <  < 42%), MW ( = 40%), and GM (35% <  < 42%). The estimated effective mineral conductivities are stable for perturbations both in the rock conductivity measures and in the quartz volume fraction. The fact that the metasedimentary rocks are richer in platy-minerals explains partially the poor model performances, because both the high thermal anisotropy of biotite (one of the most common platy-mineral) and the difficulty in obtaining polished surfaces for measurement coupling when platyminerals are present. Independently of the rock type, both very low and very high values of rock conductivities are hardly explained by rock models based just on rock mineral content.

Síntese e caracterizações estrutural e magnética das ferritas de cobalto-manganês (Co1-xMnxFe2O4 E Co1,2Fe1,8-xMnxO4)

The cobalt-manganese ferrites (Co1¡xMnxFe2O4 and Co1,2Fe1,8¡xMnxO4) has a mixed structure of spinel type and it has been regarded as one of candidates for petitive wide variety of applications in devices from ultrasonic generation and detection, sensors, transformers, as well as in medical industry. Ferrites cobalt-manganese nanostructured were produced via mechanical alloying with subsequent heat treatment and were characterized by X-ray diffraction, X-ray fluorescence, scanning electron microscopy and magnetization. Samples of Co1¡xMnxFe2O4 and Co1,2Fe1,8¡xMnxO4 were obtained from the precursor powders Fe3O4, Co3O4 and Mn3O4 which were stoichiometrically mixed and ground by 10h and heat treated at 900°C for 2h. The diffraction confirmed the formation of the pure nanocrystalline phases to series Co1,2Fe1,8¡xMnxO4 with an average diameter of about 94nm. It was found that the lattice parameter increases with the substitution of Fe3Å by Mn3Å. The x-ray fluorescence revealed that the portions of metals in samples were close to the nominal stoichiometric compositions. The microstructural features observed in micrographs showed that the particles formed show very different morphology and particle size. The magnetic hysteresis measurements performed at low temperature showed that the saturation magnetization and remanence increased as the concentration of manganese, while the coercive field decreased. The anisotropy constant (Ke f ), was estimated from the data adjustments the law of approaching saturation. It was found that the anisotropy decreases substantially with the substitution of Fe by Mn.

Macrophage migration inhibitory factor (MIF) family in arthropods : cloning and expression analysis of two MIF and one D-dopachrome tautomerase (DDT) homologues in Mud crabs, Scylla paramamosain

5. Acknowledgements This research was supported by grants from the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 31172438 and U1205123), the Natural Science Foundation of Fujian Province (No. 2012J06008 and 201311180002) and the projects-sponsored by SRF. TW received funding from the MASTS pooling initiative (The Marine Alliance for Science and Technology for Scotland) funded by the Scottish Funding Council (grant reference HR09011) and contributing institutions.

Limits to sustained energy intake XXV : milk energy output and thermogenesis in Swiss mice lactating at thermoneutrality

Acknowledgements We are grateful to Ke-Xin Chen, Song Tan and Jing Cao (Wenzhou University) for care of the animals. We thank Dr. Teresa G. Valencak (Research Institute of Wildlife Ecology, University of Veterinary Medicine Vienna, Austria) for her assistance with the body temperature measurements using the thermo-sensitive passive transponders. We thank Peter Thomson (University of Aberdeen) for his technical assistance with the isotope analysis for the DLW measurements. This work was supported by grant (no. 31270458) from the National Natural Science Foundation of China, grant (pd2013374) from Zhejiang province, and grants (no. 14SK51A, 14SK52A) from Wenzhou University.

Loss of p38δ mitogen-activated protein kinase expression promotes oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma proliferation, migration and anchorage-independent growth.

Oesophageal cancer is an aggressive tumour which responds poorly to both chemotherapy and radiation therapy and has a poor prognosis. Thus, a greater understanding of the biology of oesophageal cancer is needed in order to identify novel therapeutic targets. Among these targets p38 MAPK isoforms are becoming increasingly important for a variety of cellular functions. The physiological functions of p38α and -β are now well documented in contrast to -γ and -δ which are comparatively under-studied and ill-defined. A major obstacle to deciphering the role(s) of the latter two p38 isoforms is the lack of specific chemical activators and inhibitors. In this study, we analysed p38 MAPK isoform expression in oesophageal cancer cell lines as well as human normal and tumour tissue. We observed specifically differential p38δ expression. The role(s) of p38δ and active (phosphorylated) p38δ (p-p38δ) in oesophageal squamous cell carcinoma (OESCC) was delineated using wild-type p38δ as well as active p-p38δ, generated by fusing p38δ to its upstream activator MKK6b(E) via a decapeptide (Gly-Glu)5 linker. OESCC cell lines which are p38δ-negative (KE-3 and -8) grew more quickly than cell lines (KE-6 and -10) which express endogenous p38δ. Re-introduction of p38δ resulted in a time-dependent decrease in OESCC cell proliferation which was exacerbated with p-p38δ. In addition, we observed that p38δ and p-p38δ negatively regulated OESCC cell migration in vitro. Finally both p38δ and p-p38δ altered OESCC anchorage-independent growth. Our results suggest that p38δ and p-p38δ have a role in the suppression of OESCC. Our research may provide a new potential target for the treatment of oesophageal cancer.

Association of HIV-1 Envelope-Specific Breast Milk IgA Responses with Reduced Risk of Postnatal Mother-to-Child Transmission of HIV-1.

UNLABELLED: Infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers in resource-limited areas where replacement feeding is unsafe and impractical are repeatedly exposed to HIV-1 throughout breastfeeding. Despite this, the majority of infants do not contract HIV-1 postnatally, even in the absence of maternal antiretroviral therapy. This suggests that immune factors in breast milk of HIV-1-infected mothers help to limit vertical transmission. We compared the HIV-1 envelope-specific breast milk and plasma antibody responses of clade C HIV-1-infected postnatally transmitting and nontransmitting mothers in the control arm of the Malawi-based Breastfeeding Antiretrovirals and Nutrition Study using multivariable logistic regression modeling. We found no association between milk or plasma neutralization activity, antibody-dependent cell-mediated cytotoxicity, or HIV-1 envelope-specific IgG responses and postnatal transmission risk. While the envelope-specific breast milk and plasma IgA responses also did not reach significance in predicting postnatal transmission risk in the primary model after correction for multiple comparisons, subsequent exploratory analysis using two distinct assay methodologies demonstrated that the magnitudes of breast milk total and secretory IgA responses against a consensus HIV-1 envelope gp140 (B.con env03) were associated with reduced postnatal transmission risk. These results suggest a protective role for mucosal HIV-1 envelope-specific IgA responses in the context of postnatal virus transmission. This finding supports further investigations into the mechanisms by which mucosal IgA reduces risk of HIV-1 transmission via breast milk and into immune interventions aimed at enhancing this response. IMPORTANCE: Infants born to HIV-1-infected mothers are repeatedly exposed to the virus in breast milk. Remarkably, the transmission rate is low, suggesting that immune factors in the breast milk of HIV-1-infected mothers help to limit transmission. We compared the antibody responses in plasma and breast milk of HIV-1-transmitting and -nontransmitting mothers to identify responses that correlated with reduced risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission. We found that neither plasma nor breast milk IgG antibody responses were associated with risk of HIV-1 transmission. In contrast, the magnitudes of the breast milk IgA and secretory IgA responses against HIV-1 envelope proteins were associated with reduced risk of postnatal HIV-1 transmission. The results of this study support further investigations of the mechanisms by which mucosal IgA may reduce the risk of HIV-1 transmission via breastfeeding and the development of strategies to enhance milk envelope-specific IgA responses to reduce mother-to-child HIV transmission and promote an HIV-free generation.

A pilot study of orthopaedic resident self-assessment using a milestones' survey just prior to milestones implementation.

OBJECTIVE: To pilot test if Orthopaedic Surgery residents could self-assess their performance using newly created milestones, as defined by the Accreditation Council on Graduate Medical Education. METHODS: In June 2012, an email was sent to Program Directors and administrative coordinators of the 154 accredited Orthopaedic Surgery Programs, asking them to send their residents a link to an online survey. The survey was adapted from the Orthopaedic Surgery Milestone Project. Completed surveys were aggregated in an anonymous, confidential database. SAS 9.3 was used to perform the analyses. RESULTS: Responses from 71 residents were analyzed. First and second year residents indicated through self-assessment that they had substantially achieved Level 1 and Level 2 milestones. Third year residents reported they had substantially achieved 30/41, and fourth year residents, all Level 3 milestones. Fifth year, graduating residents, reported they had substantially achieved 17 Level 4 milestones, and were extremely close on another 15. No milestone was rated at Level 5, the maximum possible. Earlier in training, Patient Care and Medical Knowledge milestones were rated lower than the milestones reflecting the other four competencies of Practice Based Learning and Improvement, Systems Based Practice, Professionalism, and Interpersonal Communication. The gap was closed by the fourth year. CONCLUSIONS: Residents were able to successfully self-assess using the 41 Orthopaedic Surgery milestones. Respondents' rate improved proficiency over time. Graduating residents report they have substantially, or close to substantially, achieved all Level 4 milestones. Milestone self-assessment may be a useful tool as one component of a program's overall performance assessment strategy.

Barriers to reporting child maltreatment: do emergency medical services professionals fully understand their role as mandatory reporters?

BACKGROUND: Child maltreatment is underreported in the United States and in North Carolina. In North Carolina and other states, mandatory reporting laws require various professionals to make reports, thereby helping to reduce underreporting of child maltreatment. This study aims to understand why emergency medical services (EMS) professionals may fail to report suspicions of maltreatment despite mandatory reporting policies. METHODS: A web-based, anonymous, voluntary survey of EMS professionals in North Carolina was used to assess knowledge of their agency's written protocols and potential reasons for underreporting suspicion of maltreatment (n=444). Results were based on descriptive statistics. Responses of line staff and leadership personnel were compared using chi-square analysis. RESULTS: Thirty-eight percent of respondents were unaware of their agency's written protocols regarding reporting of child maltreatment. Additionally, 25% of EMS professionals who knew of their agency's protocol incorrectly believed that the report should be filed by someone other than the person with firsthand knowledge of the suspected maltreatment. Leadership personnel generally understood reporting requirements better than did line staff. Respondents indicated that peers may fail to report maltreatment for several reasons: they believe another authority would file the report, including the hospital (52.3%) or law enforcement (27.7%); they are uncertain whether they had witnessed abuse (47.7%); and they are uncertain about what should be reported (41.4%). LIMITATIONS: This survey may not generalize to all EMS professionals in North Carolina. CONCLUSIONS: Training opportunities for EMS professionals that address proper identification and reporting of child maltreatment, as well as cross-agency information sharing, are warranted.

Potential Cost-effectiveness of Early Identification of Hospital-acquired Infection in Critically Ill Patients.

RATIONALE: Limitations in methods for the rapid diagnosis of hospital-acquired infections often delay initiation of effective antimicrobial therapy. New diagnostic approaches offer potential clinical and cost-related improvements in the management of these infections. OBJECTIVES: We developed a decision modeling framework to assess the potential cost-effectiveness of a rapid biomarker assay to identify hospital-acquired infection in high-risk patients earlier than standard diagnostic testing. METHODS: The framework includes parameters representing rates of infection, rates of delayed appropriate therapy, and impact of delayed therapy on mortality, along with assumptions about diagnostic test characteristics and their impact on delayed therapy and length of stay. Parameter estimates were based on contemporary, published studies and supplemented with data from a four-site, observational, clinical study. Extensive sensitivity analyses were performed. The base-case analysis assumed 17.6% of ventilated patients and 11.2% of nonventilated patients develop hospital-acquired infection and that 28.7% of patients with hospital-acquired infection experience delays in appropriate antibiotic therapy with standard care. We assumed this percentage decreased by 50% (to 14.4%) among patients with true-positive results and increased by 50% (to 43.1%) among patients with false-negative results using a hypothetical biomarker assay. Cost of testing was set at $110/d. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: In the base-case analysis, among ventilated patients, daily diagnostic testing starting on admission reduced inpatient mortality from 12.3 to 11.9% and increased mean costs by $1,640 per patient, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21,389 per life-year saved. Among nonventilated patients, inpatient mortality decreased from 7.3 to 7.1% and costs increased by $1,381 with diagnostic testing. The resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was $42,325 per life-year saved. Threshold analyses revealed the probabilities of developing hospital-acquired infection in ventilated and nonventilated patients could be as low as 8.4 and 9.8%, respectively, to maintain incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $50,000 per life-year saved. CONCLUSIONS: Development and use of serial diagnostic testing that reduces the proportion of patients with delays in appropriate antibiotic therapy for hospital-acquired infections could reduce inpatient mortality. The model presented here offers a cost-effectiveness framework for future test development.

Criminally Involved Parents Who Misuse Substances and Children’s Odds of Being Arrested as a Young Adult: Do Drug Treatment Courts Mitigate the Risk?

© 2016, Springer Science+Business Media New York.This paper examined (1) the association between parents who are convicted of a substance-related offense and their children’s probability of being arrested as a young adult and (2) whether or not parental participation in an adult drug treatment court program mitigated this risk. The analysis relied on state administrative data from North Carolina courts (2005–2013) and from birth records (1988–2003). The dependent variable was the probability that a child was arrested as a young adult (16–21). Logistic regression was used to compare groups and models accounted for the clustering of multiple children with the same mother. Findings revealed that children whose parents were convicted on either a substance-related charge on a non-substance-related charge had twice the odds of being arrested as young adult, relative to children whose parents had not been observed having a conviction. While a quarter of children whose parents participated in a drug treatment court program were arrested as young adults, parental completion this program did not reduce this risk. In conclusion, children whose parents were convicted had an increased risk of being arrested as young adults, irrespective of whether or not the conviction was on a substance-related charge. However, drug treatment courts did not reduce this risk. Reducing intergenerational links in the probability of arrest remains a societal challenge.

Parental Criminal Justice Involvement and Children's Involvement With Child Protective Services: Do Adult Drug Treatment Courts Prevent Child Maltreatment?

BACKGROUND: In light of evidence showing reduced criminal recidivism and cost savings, adult drug treatment courts have grown in popularity. However, the potential spillover benefits to family members are understudied. OBJECTIVES: To examine: (1) the overlap between parents who were convicted of a substance-related offense and their children's involvement with child protective services (CPS); and (2) whether parental participation in an adult drug treatment court program reduces children's risk for CPS involvement. METHODS: Administrative data from North Carolina courts, birth records, and social services were linked at the child level. First, children of parents convicted of a substance-related offense were matched to (a) children of parents convicted of a nonsubstance-related offense and (b) those not convicted of any offense. Second, we compared children of parents who completed a DTC program with children of parents who were referred but did not enroll, who enrolled for <90 days but did not complete, and who enrolled for 90+ days but did not complete. Multivariate logistic regression was used to model group differences in the odds of being reported to CPS in the 1 to 3 years following parental criminal conviction or, alternatively, being referred to a DTC program. RESULTS: Children of parents convicted of a substance-related offense were at greater risk of CPS involvement than children whose parents were not convicted of any charge, but DTC participation did not mitigate this risk. Conclusion/Importance: The role of specialty courts as a strategy for reducing children's risk of maltreatment should be further explored.