Novel sequential methods in dose-finding designs : extensions of the continual reassessment method

Dose-finding trials are a form of clinical data collection process in which the primary objective is to estimate an optimum dose of an investigational new drug when given to a patient. This thesis develops and explores three novel dose-finding design methodologies. All design methodologies presented in this thesis are pragmatic. They use statistical models, incorporate clinicians' prior knowledge efficiently, and prematurely stop a trial for safety or futility reasons. Designing actual dose-finding trials using these methodologies will minimize practical difficulties, improve efficiency of dose estimation, be flexible to stop early and reduce possible patient discomfort or harm.

A survey of control allocation methods for underwater vehicles

A control allocation system implements a function that maps the desired control forces generated by the vehicle motion controller into the commands of the different actuators. In this article, a survey of control allocation methods for over-actuated underwater vehicles is presented. The methods are applicable for both surface vessels and underwater vehicles. The paper presents a survey of control allocation methods with focus on mathematical representation and solvability of thruster allocation problems. The paper is useful for university students and engineers who want to get an overview of state-of-the art control allocation methods as well as advance methods to solve more complex problems.

Reply to the comments on “A study of the phosphate mineral kapundaite NaCa(Fe3+)4(PO4)4(OH)3·5(H2O) using SEM/EDX and vibrational spectroscopic methods” by Frost et al. (2014)

"The authors agree with the statements made by Mills and Christy on the study of kapundaite [1]. These authors are correct and have removed any confusion about the origin of the sample kapundaite. The authors (Frost et al.) confirm the sample of kapundaite studied in this work is from the Tom‘s quarry, Australia and can be considered a type material. The authors do not accept the statements by Mills and Christy on “type minerals”. The sample of kapundaite from the Australian source is from the collection of the Geology Department of the Federal University of Ouro Preto, Minas Gerais, Brazil with sample code SAC-111. At least if our mineral sample is not a co-type mineral, our sample is from the same origin as the type mineral. Samples..."--publisher website.

Higher uptake of long-acting reversible and permanent methods of contraception by Australian women living in rural and remote areas

Objectives: To examine factors associated with the uptake of i) long-acting reversible, ii) permanent and iii) traditional contraceptive methods among Australian women. Methods: Participants in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health born in 1973–78 reported on their contraceptive use at three surveys: 2003, 2006 and 2009. The participants were 5,849 women aged 25–30 in 2003 randomly sampled from Medicare. The main outcome measure was current contraceptive method at age 28–33 years categorised as long-acting reversible methods (implant, IUD, injection), permanent (tubal ligation, vasectomy), and traditional methods (oral contraceptive pills, condoms, withdrawal, safe period). Results: Compared to women living in major cities, women in inner regional areas were more likely to use long-acting (OR=1.26, 95%CI 1.03–1.55) or permanent methods (OR=1.43, 95%CI 1.17–1.76). Women living in outer regional/remote areas were more likely than women living in cities to use long-acting (OR=1.65, 95%CI 1.31–2.08) or permanent methods (OR=1.69, 95%CI 1.43–2.14). Conclusions: Location of residence is an important factor in women's choices about long-acting and permanent contraception in addition to the number and age of their children. Implications: Further research is needed to understand the role of geographical location in women's access to contraceptive options in Australia.

Efficiency comparison of Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) to standard Monte Carlo Simulation (sMC) for extreme event scenarios

Standard Monte Carlo (sMC) simulation models have been widely used in AEC industry research to address system uncertainties. Although the benefits of probabilistic simulation analyses over deterministic methods are well documented, the sMC simulation technique is quite sensitive to the probability distributions of the input variables. This phenomenon becomes highly pronounced when the region of interest within the joint probability distribution (a function of the input variables) is small. In such cases, the standard Monte Carlo approach is often impractical from a computational standpoint. In this paper, a comparative analysis of standard Monte Carlo simulation to Markov Chain Monte Carlo with subset simulation (MCMC/ss) is presented. The MCMC/ss technique constitutes a more complex simulation method (relative to sMC), wherein a structured sampling algorithm is employed in place of completely randomized sampling. Consequently, gains in computational efficiency can be made. The two simulation methods are compared via theoretical case studies.

Anthropogenic-based regional-scale factors most consistently explain plot-level exotic diversity in grasslands

Aim Evidence linking the accumulation of exotic species to the suppression of native diversity is equivocal, often relying on data from studies that have used different methods. Plot-level studies often attribute inverse relationships between native and exotic diversity to competition, but regional abiotic filters, including anthropogenic influences, can produce similar patterns.We seek to test these alternatives using identical scale-dependent sampling protocols in multiple grasslands on two continents. Location Thirty-two grassland sites in North America and Australia. Methods We use multiscale observational data, collected identically in grain and extent at each site, to test the association of local and regional factors with the plot-level richness and abundance of native and exotic plants. Sites captured environmental and anthropogenic gradients including land-use intensity, human population density, light and soil resources, climate and elevation. Site selection occurred independently of exotic diversity, meaning that the numbers of exotic species varied randomly thereby reducing potential biases if only highly invaded sites were chosen. Results Regional factors associated directly or indirectly with human activity had the strongest associations with plot-level diversity. These regional drivers had divergent effects: urban-based economic activity was associated with high exotic : native diversity ratios; climate- and landscape-based indicators of lower human population density were associated with low exotic : native ratios. Negative correlations between plot-level native and exotic diversity, a potential signature of competitive interactions, were not prevalent; this result did not change along gradients of productivity or heterogeneity. Main conclusion We show that plot-level diversity of native and exotic plants are more consistently associatedwith regional-scale factors relating to urbanization and climate suitability than measures indicative of competition. These findings clarify the long-standing difficulty in resolving drivers of exotic diversity using single-factor mechanisms, suggesting that multiple interacting anthropogenic-based processes best explain the accumulation of exotic diversity in modern landscapes.

Quantitative fit analysis of orthopedic bone plates : methods, criteria and approach

Studies on quantitative fit analysis of precontoured fracture fixation plates emerged within the last few years and therefore, there is a wide research gap in this area. Quantitative fit assessment facilitates the measure of the gap between a fracture fixation plate and the underlying bone, and specifies the required plate fit criteria. For clinically meaningful fit assessment outcome, it is necessary to establish the appropriate criteria and parameter. The present paper studies this subject and recommends using multiple fit criteria and the maximum distance between the plate and underlying bone as fit parameter for clinically relevant outcome. We also propose the development of a software tool for automatic plate positioning and fit assessment for the purpose of implant design validation and optimization in an effort to provide better fitting implant that can assist proper fracture healing. The fundamental specifications of the software are discussed.

Stimulating organizational ingenuity with design methods

Organizations invest in ways to stimulate new ideas for new products and services for the benefit of the organization, engaging in tournaments and competitions to generate new ideas or to combine existing ideas in new ways for new products and services (Terweisch and Uhlrich, 2009). Specifically, some large companies have developed platforms for posting intractable problems to tap into the ideas and problem solving abilities of a broader range of people (Huston and Sakkab, 2006; Morgan and Wang, 2010), and to develop new and elegant solutions often in an open innovation approach (Chesbrough, 2003). The notion of ingenuity is often applied to individuals who create innovative solutions in situations of constraint, where ingenuity in the form of elegant solutions can be understood as one form of resourcefulness (Young, 2011). However, the notion of organizational ingenuity locates ingenuity more centrally to an organization's strategic decision making and implementation, embedding ingenuity into the company's culture. Studies of organizations displaying ingenuity indicate a range of possibilities from extreme ingenuity (Baker and Nelson, 2005) to less dramatic but substantial changes (Thomke, 2003), sometimes in an experimental phase or as part of a move towards a new and distinct identity for ongoing innovation.

Socio-demographic characteristics, modifiable lifestyle factors, and health as predictors of mental health in midlife and older Australian women: a multilevel investigation

Background Poor mental health is a significant cause of morbidity and mortality, yet debate continues about factors most likely to predict poor mental health outcomes. Objective This cohort study examines the influence of modifiable lifestyle factors, menopausal symptoms, and physical health on the mental health of midlife and older Australian women. Methods: Random sampling was used to recruit women aged 40-55, from rural and urban areas of Queensland, Australia. Overall, 340 women completed mailed surveys on socio-demographic characteristics, midlife symptoms (Greene Climacteric Scale©), modifiable lifestyle factors, and mental health (SF-12©) in 2001, 2004 and 2011. Hierarchical repeated-measure models were used to explore the correlates of poor mental health over time. Results The mean age [SD] at baseline was 55 [2.7] years, most were married (73%, n=248) and 18% were pre-menopausal. The model suggested that variance in mental health widened and showed a non-linear increase with age. Decrements in mental health were associated with an increase in midlife symptoms (Greene psychological scale, P <0.01; Greene somatic scale, P <0.05), time (P <0.01), poor physical health (P <0.01) and individual variance (P <0.01). Socio-demographics and lifestyle factors had little influence on mental health over time. Conclusion Findings suggest that while women’s mental health may decline during midlife, the effect is temporary; in older women, physical health and individual factors seem to be increasingly significant. This research highlights the importance of active health promotion as a means of enhancing both physical and mental health in midlife women.

Direct detection of additives and degradation products from polymers by liquid extraction surface analysis employing chip-based nanospray mass spectrometry

RATIONALE: Polymer-based surface coatings in outdoor applications experience accelerated degradation due to exposure to solar radiation, oxygen and atmospheric pollutants. These deleterious agents cause undesirable changes to the aesthetic and mechanical properties of the polymer, reducing its lifetime. The use of antioxidants such as hindered amine light stabilisers (HALS) retards these degradative processes; however, mechanisms for HALS action and polymer degradation are poorly understood. METHODS: Detection of the HALS TINUVINW123 (bis(1-octyloxy-2,2,6,6-tetramethyl-4-piperidyl) sebacate) and the polymer degradation products directly from a polyester-based coil coating was achieved by liquid extraction surface analysis (LESA) coupled to a triple quadrupole QTRAPW 5500 mass spectrometer. The detection of TINUVINW123 and melamine was confirmed by the characteristic fragmentation pattern observed in LESA-MS/MS spectra that was identical to that reported for authentic samples. RESULTS: Analysis of an unstabilised coil coating by LESA-MS after exposure to 4 years of outdoor field testing revealed the presence of melamine (1,3,5-triazine-2,4,6-triamine) as a polymer degradation product at elevated levels. Changes to the physical appearance of the coil coating, including powder-like deposits on the coating's surface, were observed to coincide with melamine deposits and are indicative of the phenomenon known as polymer ' blooming'. CONCLUSIONS: For the first time, in situ detection of analytes from a thermoset polymer coating was accomplished without any sample preparation, providing advantages over traditional extraction-analysis approaches and some contemporary ambient MS methods. Detection of HALS and polymer degradation products such as melamine provides insight into the mechanisms by which degradation occurs and suggests LESA-MS is a powerful new tool for polymer analysis. Copyright (C) 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Part 1 MOO methods for multidisciplinary design using parallel evolutionary algorithms, game theory and hierarchical topology. (Part 1.) Theoretical aspects

Two lecture notes describe recent developments of evolutionary multi objective optimization (MO) techniques in detail and their advantages and drawbacks compared to traditional deterministic optimisers. The role of Game Strategies (GS), such as Pareto, Nash or Stackelberg games as companions or pre-conditioners of Multi objective Optimizers is presented and discussed on simple mathematical functions in Part I , as well as their implementations on simple aeronautical model optimisation problems on the computer using a friendly design framework in Part II. Real life (robust) design applications dealing with UAVs systems or Civil Aircraft and using the EAs and Game Strategies combined material of Part I & Part II are solved and discussed in Part III providing the designer new compromised solutions useful to digital aircraft design and manufacturing. Many details related to Lectures notes Part I, Part II and Part III can be found by the reader in [68].

Methods for isolation and cultivation of filamentous fungi

Filamentous fungi are important organisms for basic discovery, industry, and human health. Their natural growth environments are extremely variable, a fact reflected by the numerous methods developed for their isolation and cultivation. Fungal culture in the laboratory is usually carried out on agar plates, shake flasks, and bench top fermenters starting with an inoculum that typically features fungal spores. Here we discuss the most popular methods for the isolation and cultivation of filamentous fungi for various purposes with the emphasis on enzyme production and molecular microbiology.

Physical inactivity remains the greatest public health problem of the 21st century : evidence, improved methods and solutions using the '7 investments that work' as a framework

In 2009, BJSM's first editorial argued that ‘Physical inactivity is the greatest public health problem of the 21st century’.1 The data supporting that claim have not yet been challenged. Now, 5 years after BJSM published its first dedicated ‘Physical Activity is Medicine’ theme issue (http://bjsm.bmj.com/content/43/1.toc) we are pleased to highlight 23 new contributions from six countries. This issue contains an analysis of the cost of physical inactivity from the US Centre for Diseases Control.2 We also report the cost-effectiveness of one particular physical activity intervention for adults.3

Image-guided sampling reveals increased stroma and lower glandular complexity in mammographically dense breast tissue

Mammographic density (MD) adjusted for age and body mass index (BMI) is a strong heritable breast cancer risk factor; however, its biological basis remains elusive. Previous studies assessed MD-associated histology using random sampling approaches, despite evidence that high and low MD areas exist within a breast and are negatively correlated with respect to one another. We have used an image-guided approach to sample high and low MD tissues from within individual breasts to examine the relationship between histology and degree of MD. Image-guided sampling was performed using two different methodologies on mastectomy tissues (n = 12): (1) sampling of high and low MD regions within a slice guided by bright (high MD) and dark (low MD) areas in a slice X-ray film; (2) sampling of high and low MD regions within a whole breast using a stereotactically guided vacuum-assisted core biopsy technique. Pairwise analysis accounting for potential confounders (i.e. age, BMI, menopausal status, etc.) provides appropriate power for analysis despite the small sample size. High MD tissues had higher stromal (P = 0.002) and lower fat (P = 0.002) compositions, but no evidence of difference in glandular areas (P = 0.084) compared to low MD tissues from the same breast. High MD regions had higher relative gland counts (P = 0.023), and a preponderance of Type I lobules in high MD compared to low MD regions was observed in 58% of subjects (n = 7), but did not achieve significance. These findings clarify the histologic nature of high MD tissue and support hypotheses regarding the biophysical impact of dense connective tissue on mammary malignancy. They also provide important terms of reference for ongoing analyses of the underlying genetics of MD.

Simulation-based fully Bayesian experimental design for mixed effects models

In this paper, we present fully Bayesian experimental designs for nonlinear mixed effects models, in which we develop simulation-based optimal design methods to search over both continuous and discrete design spaces. Although Bayesian inference has commonly been performed on nonlinear mixed effects models, there is a lack of research into performing Bayesian optimal design for nonlinear mixed effects models that require searches to be performed over several design variables. This is likely due to the fact that it is much more computationally intensive to perform optimal experimental design for nonlinear mixed effects models than it is to perform inference in the Bayesian framework. In this paper, the design problem is to determine the optimal number of subjects and samples per subject, as well as the (near) optimal urine sampling times for a population pharmacokinetic study in horses, so that the population pharmacokinetic parameters can be precisely estimated, subject to cost constraints. The optimal sampling strategies, in terms of the number of subjects and the number of samples per subject, were found to be substantially different between the examples considered in this work, which highlights the fact that the designs are rather problem-dependent and require optimisation using the methods presented in this paper.