Framingham risk score and alternatives for prediction of coronary heart disease in older adults

Background Guidelines for the prevention of coronary heart disease (CHD) recommend use of Framingham-based risk scores that were developed in white middle-aged populations. It remains unclear whether and how CHD risk prediction might be improved among older adults. We aimed to compare the prognostic performance of the Framingham risk score (FRS), directly and after recalibration, with refit functions derived from the present cohort, as well as to assess the utility of adding other routinely available risk parameters to FRS. Methods Among 2193 black and white older adults (mean age, 73.5 years) without pre-existing cardiovascular disease from the Health ABC cohort, we examined adjudicated CHD events, defined as incident myocardial infarction, CHD death, and hospitalization for angina or coronary revascularization. Results During 8-year follow-up, 351 participants experienced CHD events. The FRS poorly discriminated between persons who experienced CHD events vs. not (C-index: 0.577 in women; 0.583 in men) and underestimated absolute risk prediction by 51% in women and 8% in men. Recalibration of the FRS improved absolute risk prediction, particulary for women. For both genders, refitting these functions substantially improved absolute risk prediction, with similar discrimination to the FRS. Results did not differ between whites and blacks. The addition of lifestyle variables, waist circumference and creatinine did not improve risk prediction beyond risk factors of the FRS. Conclusions The FRS underestimates CHD risk in older adults, particularly in women, although traditional risk factors remain the best predictors of CHD. Re-estimated risk functions using these factors improve accurate estimation of absolute risk.

Evaluation and quantification of spectral information in tissue by confocal microscopy

A confocal imaging and image processing scheme is introduced to visualize and evaluate the spatial distribution of spectral information in tissue. The image data are recorded using a confocal laser-scanning microscope equipped with a detection unit that provides high spectral resolution. The processing scheme is based on spectral data, is less error-prone than intensity-based visualization and evaluation methods, and provides quantitative information on the composition of the sample. The method is tested and validated in the context of the development of dermal drug delivery systems, introducing a quantitative uptake indicator to compare the performances of different delivery systems is introduced. A drug penetration study was performed in vitro. The results show that the method is able to detect, visualize and measure spectral information in tissue. In the penetration study, uptake efficiencies of different experiment setups could be discriminated and quantitatively described. The developed uptake indicator is a step towards a quantitative assessment and, in a more general view apart from pharmaceutical research, provides valuable information on tissue composition. It can potentially be used for clinical in vitro and in vivo applications.

Association between conventional risk factors and different ultrasound-based markers of atherosclerosis at carotid and femoral levels in a middle-aged population

Ultrasound detection of sub-clinical atherosclerosis (ATS) may help identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Most studies evaluated intima-media thickness (IMT) at carotid level. We compared the relationships between main cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and five indicators of ATS (IMT, mean and maximal plaque thickness, mean and maximal plaque area) at both carotid and femoral levels. Ultrasound was performed on 496 participants aged 45-64 years randomly selected from the general population of the Republic of Seychelles. 73.4 % participants had ≥ 1 plaque (IMT thickening ≥ 1.2 mm) at carotid level and 67.5 % at femoral level. Variance (adjusted R2) contributed by age, sex and CVRF (smoking, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, blood pressure, diabetes) in predicting any of the ATS markers was larger at femoral than carotid level. At both carotid and femoral levels, the association between CVRF and ATS was stronger based on plaque-based markers than IMT. Our findings show that the associations between CVRF and ATS markers were stronger at femoral than carotid level, and with plaque-based markers rather than IMT. Pending comparison of these markers using harder cardiovascular endpoints, our findings suggest that markers based on plaque morphology assessed at femoral artery level might be useful cardiovascular risk predictors.