Performance Availability and Anticipatory Change Planning of Intralogistics Systems: A Simulation-Based Approach

In recent years, the ability to respond to real time changes in operations and reconfigurability in equipment are likely to become essential characteristics for next generation intralogistics systems as well as the level of automation, cost effectiveness and maximum throughput. In order to cope with turbulences and the increasing level of dynamic conditions, future intralogistics systems have to feature short reaction times, high flexibility in processes and the ability to adapt to frequent changes. The increasing autonomy and complexity in processes of today’s intralogistics systems requires new and innovative management approaches, which allow a fast response to (un)anticipated events and adaptation to changing environment in order to reduce the negative consequences of these events. The ability of a system to respond effectively a disruption depends more on the decisions taken before the event than those taken during or after. In this context, anticipatory change planning can be a usable approach for managers to make contingency plans for intralogistics systems to deal with the rapidly changing marketplace. This paper proposes a simulation-based decision making framework for the anticipatory change planning of intralogistics systems. This approach includes the quantitative assessments based on the simulation in defined scenarios as well as the analysis of performance availability that combines the flexibility corridors of different performance dimensions. The implementation of the approach is illustrated on a new intralogistics technology called the Cellular Transport System.

Development of a novel material flow simulation model for the integration of spatial and process relevant information

Simulation techniques are almost indispensable in the analysis of complex systems. Materials- and related information flow processes in logistics often possess such complexity. Further problem arise as the processes change over time and pose a Big Data problem as well. To cope with these issues adaptive simulations are more and more frequently used. This paper presents a few relevant advanced simulation models and intro-duces a novel model structure, which unifies modelling of geometrical relations and time processes. This way the process structure and their geometric relations can be handled in a well understandable and transparent way. Capabilities and applicability of the model is also presented via a demonstrational example.

Forcing of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics during the Dalton Minimum

The response of atmospheric chemistry and dynamics to volcanic eruptions and to a decrease in solar activity during the Dalton Minimum is investigated with the fully coupled atmosphere–ocean chemistry general circulation model SOCOL-MPIOM (modeling tools for studies of SOlar Climate Ozone Links-Max Planck Institute Ocean Model) covering the time period 1780 to 1840 AD. We carried out several sensitivity ensemble experiments to separate the effects of (i) reduced solar ultra-violet (UV) irradiance, (ii) reduced solar visible and near infrared irradiance, (iii) enhanced galactic cosmic ray intensity as well as less intensive solar energetic proton events and auroral electron precipitation, and (iv) volcanic aerosols. The introduced changes of UV irradiance and volcanic aerosols significantly influence stratospheric dynamics in the early 19th century, whereas changes in the visible part of the spectrum and energetic particles have smaller effects. A reduction of UV irradiance by 15%, which represents the presently discussed highest estimate of UV irradiance change caused by solar activity changes, causes global ozone decrease below the stratopause reaching as much as 8% in the midlatitudes at 5 hPa and a significant stratospheric cooling of up to 2 °C in the mid-stratosphere and to 6 °C in the lower mesosphere. Changes in energetic particle precipitation lead only to minor changes in the yearly averaged temperature fields in the stratosphere. Volcanic aerosols heat the tropical lower stratosphere, allowing more water vapour to enter the tropical stratosphere, which, via HOx reactions, decreases upper stratospheric and mesospheric ozone by roughly 4%. Conversely, heterogeneous chemistry on aerosols reduces stratospheric NOx, leading to a 12% ozone increase in the tropics, whereas a decrease in ozone of up to 5% is found over Antarctica in boreal winter. The linear superposition of the different contributions is not equivalent to the response obtained in a simulation when all forcing factors are applied during the Dalton Minimum (DM) – this effect is especially well visible for NOx/NOy. Thus, this study also shows the non-linear behaviour of the coupled chemistry-climate system. Finally, we conclude that especially UV and volcanic eruptions dominate the changes in the ozone, temperature and dynamics while the NOx field is dominated by the energetic particle precipitation. Visible radiation changes have only very minor effects on both stratospheric dynamics and chemistry.

Reanalysis-driven climate simulation over CORDEX North America domain using the Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5: model performance evaluation

The performance of reanalysis-driven Canadian Regional Climate Model, version 5 (CRCM5) in reproducing the present climate over the North American COordinated Regional climate Downscaling EXperiment domain for the 1989–2008 period has been assessed in comparison with several observation-based datasets. The model reproduces satisfactorily the near-surface temperature and precipitation characteristics over most part of North America. Coastal and mountainous zones remain problematic: a cold bias (2–6 °C) prevails over Rocky Mountains in summertime and all year-round over Mexico; winter precipitation in mountainous coastal regions is overestimated. The precipitation patterns related to the North American Monsoon are well reproduced, except on its northern limit. The spatial and temporal structure of the Great Plains Low-Level Jet is well reproduced by the model; however, the night-time precipitation maximum in the jet area is underestimated. The performance of CRCM5 was assessed against earlier CRCM versions and other RCMs. CRCM5 is shown to have been substantially improved compared to CRCM3 and CRCM4 in terms of seasonal mean statistics, and to be comparable to other modern RCMs.

Flow disturbances in stent-related coronary evaginations: a computational fluid-dynamic simulation study

Aims: Angiographic ectasias and aneurysms in stented segments have been associated with late stent thrombosis. Using optical coherence tomography (OCT), some stented segments show coronary evaginations reminiscent of ectasias. The purpose of this study was to explore, using computational fluid-dynamic (CFD) simulations, whether OCT-detected coronary evaginations can induce local changes in blood flow. Methods and results: OCT-detected evaginations are defined as outward bulges in the luminal vessel contour between struts, with the depth of the bulge exceeding the actual strut thickness. Evaginations can be characterised cross ectionally by depth and along the stented segment by total length. Assuming an ellipsoid shape, we modelled 3-D evaginations with different sizes by varying the depth from 0.2-1.0 mm, and the length from 1-9 mm. For the flow simulation we used average flow velocity data from non-diseased coronary arteries. The change in flow with varying evagination sizes was assessed using a particle tracing test where the particle transit time within the segment with evagination was compared with that of a control vessel. The presence of the evagination caused a delayed particle transit time which increased with the evagination size. The change in flow consisted locally of recirculation within the evagination, as well as flow deceleration due to a larger lumen - seen as a deflection of flow towards the evagination. Conclusions: CFD simulation of 3-D evaginations and blood flow suggests that evaginations affect flow locally, with a flow disturbance that increases with increasing evagination size.

Is there good simulation basic training for end-to-side vascular microanastomoses?

BACKGROUND Microvascular anastomosis is the cornerstone of free tissue transfers. Irrespective of the microsurgical technique that one seeks to integrate or improve, the time commitment in the laboratory is significant. After extensive previous training on several animal models, we sought to identify an animal model that circumvents the following issues: ethical rules, cost, time-consuming and expensive anesthesia, and surgical preparation of tissues required to access vessels before performing the microsurgical training, not to mention that laboratories are closed on weekends. METHODS Between January 2012 and April 2012, a total of 91 earthworms were used for 150 microsurgical training exercises to simulate vascular end-to-side microanastomosis. The training sessions were divided into ten periods of 7 days. Each training session included 15 simulations of end-to-side vascular microanastomoses: larger than 1.5 mm (n=5), between 1.0 and 1.5 mm (n=5), and smaller than 1.0 mm (n=5). A linear model with the main variables being the number of weeks (as a numerical covariate) and the size of the animal (as a factor) was used to determine the trend in time of anastomosis over subsequent weeks as well as the differences between the different size groups. RESULTS The linear model shows a significant trend (p<0.001) in time of anastomosis in the course of the training, as well as significant differences (p<0.001) between the groups of animals of different sizes. For microanastomoses larger than 1.5 mm, the mean anastomosis time decreased from 19.3±1.0 to 11.1±0.4 min between the first and last week of training (decrease of 42.5%). For training with smaller diameters, the results showed a decrease in execution time of 43.2% (diameter between 1.0 and 1.5 mm) and 40.9% (diameter<1.0 mm) between the first and last periods. The study demonstrates an improvement in the dexterity and speed of nodes execution. CONCLUSION The earthworm appears to be a reliable experimental model for microsurgical training of end-to-side microanastomoses. Its numerous advantages are discussed here and we predict training on earthworms will significantly grow and develop in the near future. LEVEL OF EVIDENCE III This journal requires that authors assign a level of evidence to each article. For a full description of these Evidence-Based Medicine ratings, please refer to the Table of Contents or the online Instructions to Authors www.springer.com/00266 .

Computer simulation of glioma growth and morphology.

Despite major advances in the study of glioma, the quantitative links between intra-tumor molecular/cellular properties, clinically observable properties such as morphology, and critical tumor behaviors such as growth and invasiveness remain unclear, hampering more effective coupling of tumor physical characteristics with implications for prognosis and therapy. Although molecular biology, histopathology, and radiological imaging are employed in this endeavor, studies are severely challenged by the multitude of different physical scales involved in tumor growth, i.e., from molecular nanoscale to cell microscale and finally to tissue centimeter scale. Consequently, it is often difficult to determine the underlying dynamics across dimensions. New techniques are needed to tackle these issues. Here, we address this multi-scalar problem by employing a novel predictive three-dimensional mathematical and computational model based on first-principle equations (conservation laws of physics) that describe mathematically the diffusion of cell substrates and other processes determining tumor mass growth and invasion. The model uses conserved variables to represent known determinants of glioma behavior, e.g., cell density and oxygen concentration, as well as biological functional relationships and parameters linking phenomena at different scales whose specific forms and values are hypothesized and calculated based on in vitro and in vivo experiments and from histopathology of tissue specimens from human gliomas. This model enables correlation of glioma morphology to tumor growth by quantifying interdependence of tumor mass on the microenvironment (e.g., hypoxia, tissue disruption) and on the cellular phenotypes (e.g., mitosis and apoptosis rates, cell adhesion strength). Once functional relationships between variables and associated parameter values have been informed, e.g., from histopathology or intra-operative analysis, this model can be used for disease diagnosis/prognosis, hypothesis testing, and to guide surgery and therapy. In particular, this tool identifies and quantifies the effects of vascularization and other cell-scale glioma morphological characteristics as predictors of tumor-scale growth and invasion.

Computer simulation of glioma growth and morphology.

Despite major advances in the study of glioma, the quantitative links between intra-tumor molecular/cellular properties, clinically observable properties such as morphology, and critical tumor behaviors such as growth and invasiveness remain unclear, hampering more effective coupling of tumor physical characteristics with implications for prognosis and therapy. Although molecular biology, histopathology, and radiological imaging are employed in this endeavor, studies are severely challenged by the multitude of different physical scales involved in tumor growth, i.e., from molecular nanoscale to cell microscale and finally to tissue centimeter scale. Consequently, it is often difficult to determine the underlying dynamics across dimensions. New techniques are needed to tackle these issues. Here, we address this multi-scalar problem by employing a novel predictive three-dimensional mathematical and computational model based on first-principle equations (conservation laws of physics) that describe mathematically the diffusion of cell substrates and other processes determining tumor mass growth and invasion. The model uses conserved variables to represent known determinants of glioma behavior, e.g., cell density and oxygen concentration, as well as biological functional relationships and parameters linking phenomena at different scales whose specific forms and values are hypothesized and calculated based on in vitro and in vivo experiments and from histopathology of tissue specimens from human gliomas. This model enables correlation of glioma morphology to tumor growth by quantifying interdependence of tumor mass on the microenvironment (e.g., hypoxia, tissue disruption) and on the cellular phenotypes (e.g., mitosis and apoptosis rates, cell adhesion strength). Once functional relationships between variables and associated parameter values have been informed, e.g., from histopathology or intra-operative analysis, this model can be used for disease diagnosis/prognosis, hypothesis testing, and to guide surgery and therapy. In particular, this tool identifies and quantifies the effects of vascularization and other cell-scale glioma morphological characteristics as predictors of tumor-scale growth and invasion.

Cellular dynamic simulator: an event driven molecular simulation environment for cellular physiology.

In this paper, we present the Cellular Dynamic Simulator (CDS) for simulating diffusion and chemical reactions within crowded molecular environments. CDS is based on a novel event driven algorithm specifically designed for precise calculation of the timing of collisions, reactions and other events for each individual molecule in the environment. Generic mesh based compartments allow the creation / importation of very simple or detailed cellular structures that exist in a 3D environment. Multiple levels of compartments and static obstacles can be used to create a dense environment to mimic cellular boundaries and the intracellular space. The CDS algorithm takes into account volume exclusion and molecular crowding that may impact signaling cascades in small sub-cellular compartments such as dendritic spines. With the CDS, we can simulate simple enzyme reactions; aggregation, channel transport, as well as highly complicated chemical reaction networks of both freely diffusing and membrane bound multi-protein complexes. Components of the CDS are generally defined such that the simulator can be applied to a wide range of environments in terms of scale and level of detail. Through an initialization GUI, a simple simulation environment can be created and populated within minutes yet is powerful enough to design complex 3D cellular architecture. The initialization tool allows visual confirmation of the environment construction prior to execution by the simulator. This paper describes the CDS algorithm, design implementation, and provides an overview of the types of features available and the utility of those features are highlighted in demonstrations.

MODELLING β2AR REGULATION

The β2 adrenergic receptor (β2AR) regulates smooth muscle relaxation in the vasculature and airways. Long- and Short-acting β-agonists (LABAs/SABAs) are widely used in treatment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD) and asthma. Despite their widespread clinical use we do not understand well the dominant β2AR regulatory pathways that are stimulated during therapy and bring about tachyphylaxis, which is the loss of drug effects. Thus, an understanding of how the β2AR responds to various β-agonists is crucial to their rational use. Towards that end we have developed deterministic models that explore the mechanism of drug- induced β2AR regulation. These mathematical models can be classified into three classes; (i) Six quantitative models of SABA-induced G protein coupled receptor kinase (GRK)-mediated β2AR regulation; (ii) Three phenomenological models of salmeterol (a LABA)-induced GRK-mediated β2AR regulation; and (iii) One semi-quantitative, unified model of SABA-induced GRK-, protein kinase A (PKA)-, and phosphodiesterase (PDE)-mediated regulation of β2AR signalling. The various models were constrained with all or some of the following experimental data; (i) GRK-mediated β2AR phosphorylation in response to various LABAs/SABAs; (ii) dephosphorylation of the GRK site on the β2AR; (iii) β2AR internalisation; (iv) β2AR recycling; (v) β2AR desensitisation; (vi) β2AR resensitisation; (vii) PKA-mediated β2AR phosphorylation in response to a SABA; and (viii) LABA/SABA induced cAMP profile ± PDE inhibitors. The models of GRK-mediated β2AR regulation show that plasma membrane dephosphorylation and recycling of the phosphorylated β2AR are required to reconcile with the measured dephosphorylation kinetics. We further used a consensus model to predict the consequences of rapid pulsatile agonist stimulation and found that although resensitisation was rapid, the β2AR system retained the memory of prior stimuli and desensitised much more rapidly and strongly in response to subsequent stimuli. This could explain tachyphylaxis of SABAs over repeated use in rescue therapy of asthma patients. The LABA models show that the long action of salmeterol can be explained due to decreased stability of the arrestin/β2AR/salmeterol complex. This could explain long action of β-agonists used in maintenance therapy of asthma patients. Our consensus model of PKA/PDE/GRK-mediated β2AR regulation is being used to identify the dominant β2AR desensitisation pathways under different therapeutic regimens in human airway cells. In summary our models represent a significant advance towards understanding agonist-specific β2AR regulation that will aid in a more rational use of the β2AR agonists in the treatment of asthma.

Air-Sea Interactions During the Passage of a Winter Storm Over the Gulf Stream: A Three-Dimensional Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Model Study

A three-dimensional, regional coupled atmosphere-ocean model with full physics is developed to study air-sea interactions during winter storms off the U. S. east coast. Because of the scarcity of open ocean observations, models such as this offer valuable opportunities to investigate how oceanic forcing drives atmospheric circulation and vice versa. The study presented here considers conditions of strong atmospheric forcing (high wind speeds) and strong oceanic forcing (significant sea surface temperature (SST) gradients). A simulated atmospheric cyclone evolves in a manner consistent with Eta reanalysis, and the simulated air-sea heat and momentum exchanges strongly affect the circulations in both the atmosphere and the ocean. For the simulated cyclone of 19-20 January 1998, maximum ocean-to-atmosphere heat fluxes first appear over the Gulf Stream in the South Atlantic Bight, and this results in rapid deepening of the cyclone off the Carolina coast. As the cyclone moves eastward, the heat flux maximum shifts into the region near Cape Hatteras and later northeast of Hatteras, where it enhances the wind locally. The oceanic response to the atmospheric forcing is closely related to the wind direction. Southerly and southwesterly winds tend to strengthen surface currents in the Gulf Stream, whereas northeasterly winds weaken the surface currents in the Gulf Stream and generate southwestward flows on the shelf. The oceanic feedback to the atmosphere moderates the cyclone strength. Compared with a simulation in which the oceanic model always passes the initial SST to the atmospheric model, the coupled simulation in which the oceanic model passes the evolving SST to the atmospheric model produces higher ocean-to-atmosphere heat flux near Gulf Stream meander troughs. This is due to wind-driven lateral shifts of the stream, which in turn enhance the local northeasterly winds. Away from the Gulf Stream the coupled simulation produces surface winds that are 5 similar to 10% weaker. Differences in the surface ocean currents between these two experiments are significant on the shelf and in the open ocean.

Modeling Responses of Diatom Productivity and Biogenic Silica Export to Iron Enrichment in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean

Using a three-dimensional physical-biogeochemical model, we have investigated the modeled responses of diatom productivity and biogenic silica export to iron enrichment in the equatorial Pacific, and compared the model simulation with in situ (IronEx II) iron fertilization results. In the eastern equatorial Pacific, an area of 540,000 km(2) was enhanced with iron by changing the photosynthetic efficiency and silicate and nitrogen uptake kinetics of phytoplankton in the model for a period of 20 days. The vertically integrated Chl a and primary production increased by about threefold 5 days after the start of the experiment, similar to that observed in the IronEx II experiment. Diatoms contribute to the initial increase of the total phytoplankton biomass, but decrease sharply after 10 days because of mesozooplankton grazing. The modeled surface nutrients (silicate and nitrate) and TCO(2) anomaly fields, obtained from the difference between the "iron addition'' and "ambient'' (without iron) concentrations, also agreed well with the IronEx II observations. The enriched patch is tracked with an inert tracer similar to the SF6 used in the IronEx II. The modeled depth-time distribution of sinking biogenic silica (BSi) indicates that it would take more than 30 days after iron injection to detect any significant BSi export out of the euphotic zone. Sensitivity studies were performed to establish the importance of fertilized patch size, duration of fertilization, and the role of mesozooplankton grazing. A larger size of the iron patch tends to produce a broader extent and longer-lasting phytoplankton blooms. Longer duration prolongs phytoplankton growth, but higher zooplankton grazing pressure prevents significant phytoplankton biomass accumulation. With the same treatment of iron fertilization in the model, lowering mesozooplankton grazing rate generates much stronger diatom bloom, but it is terminated by Si(OH)(4) limitation after the initial rapid increase. Increasing mesozooplankton grazing rate, the diatom increase due to iron addition stays at minimum level, but small phytoplankton tend to increase. The numerical model experiments demonstrate the value of ecosystem modeling for evaluating the detailed interaction between biogeochemical cycle and iron fertilization in the equatorial Pacific.

Dynamic high-resolution computer simulation of isotachophoretic enantiomer separation and zone stability

The development of electrophoretic computer models and their use for simulation of electrophoretic processes has increased significantly during the last few years. Recently, GENTRANS and SIMUL5 were extended with algorithms that describe chemical equilibria between solutes and a buffer additive in a fast 1:1 interaction process, an approach that enables simulation of the electrophoretic separation of enantiomers. For acidic cationic systems with sodium and H3 0(+) as leading and terminating components, respectively, acetic acid as counter component, charged weak bases as samples, and a neutral CD as chiral selector, the new codes were used to investigate the dynamics of isotachophoretic adjustment of enantiomers, enantiomer separation, boundaries between enantiomers and between an enantiomer and a buffer constituent of like charge, and zone stability. The impact of leader pH, selector concentration, free mobility of the weak base, mobilities of the formed complexes and complexation constants could thereby be elucidated. For selected examples with methadone enantiomers as analytes and (2-hydroxypropyl)-β-CD as selector, simulated zone patterns were found to compare well with those monitored experimentally in capillary setups with two conductivity detectors or an absorbance and a conductivity detector. Simulation represents an elegant way to provide insight into the formation of isotachophoretic boundaries and zone stability in presence of complexation equilibria in a hitherto inaccessible way.

The coupled atmosphere–chemistry–ocean model SOCOL-MPIOM

The newly developed atmosphere–ocean-chemistry-climate model SOCOL-MPIOM is presented by demonstrating the influence of the interactive chemistry module on the climate state and the variability. Therefore, we compare pre-industrial control simulations with (CHEM) and without (NOCHEM) interactive chemistry. In general, the influence of the chemistry on the mean state and the variability is small and mainly restricted to the stratosphere and mesosphere. The largest differences are found for the atmospheric dynamics in the polar regions, with slightly stronger northern and southern winter polar vortices in CHEM. The strengthening of the vortex is related to larger stratospheric temperature gradients, which are attributed to a parametrization of the absorption of ozone and oxygen in the Lyman-alpha, Schumann–Runge, Hartley, and Higgins bands. This effect is parametrized in the version with interactive chemistry only. A second reason for the temperature differences between CHEM and NOCHEM is related to diurnal variations in the ozone concentrations in the higher atmosphere, which are missing in NOCHEM. Furthermore, stratospheric water vapour concentrations differ substantially between the two experiments, but their effect on the temperatures is small. In both setups, the simulated intensity and variability of the northern polar vortex is inside the range of present day observations. Sudden stratospheric warming events are well reproduced in terms of their frequency, but the distribution amongst the winter months is too uniform. Additionally, the performance of SOCOL-MPIOM under changing external forcings is assessed for the period 1600–2000 using an ensemble of simulations driven by a spectral solar forcing reconstruction. The amplitude of the reconstruction is large in comparison to other state-of-the-art reconstructions, providing an upper limit for the importance of the solar signal. In the pre-industrial period (1600–1850) the simulated surface temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with temperature reconstructions, although the multi-decadal variability is more pronounced. This enhanced variability can be attributed to the variability in the solar forcing. The simulated temperature reductions during the Maunder Minimum are in the lowest probability range of the proxy records. During the Dalton Minimum, when also volcanic forcing is an important driver of temperature variations, the agreement is better. In the industrial period from 1850 onward SOCOL-MPIOM overestimates the temperature increase in comparison to observational data sets. Sensitivity simulations show that this overestimation can be attributed to the increasing trend in the solar forcing reconstruction that is used in this study and an additional warming induced by the simulated ozone changes.

Fatal contact shot to the chest caused by the gas jet from a muzzle-loading pistol discharging only black powder and no bullet: case study and experimental simulation of the wounding effect.

In modern medico-legal literature, only a small number of publications deal with fatal injuries from black powder guns. Most of them focus on the morphological features such as intense soot soiling, blast tattooing and burn effects in close-range shots or describe the wound ballistics of spherical lead bullets. Another kind of "unusual" and potentially lethal weapons are handguns destined for firing only blank cartridges such as starter and alarm pistols. The dangerousness of these guns is restricted to very close and contact range shots and results from the gas jet produced by the deflagration of the propellant. The present paper reports on a suicide committed with a muzzle-loading percussion pistol cal. 45. An unusually large stellate entrance wound was located in the precordial region, accompanied by an imprint mark from the ramrod and a faint greenish discoloration (apparently due to the formation of sulfhemoglobin). Autopsy revealed an oversized powder cavity, multiple fractures of the anterior thoracic wall as well as ruptures of the heart, the aorta, the left hepatic lobe and the diaphragm. In total, the zone of mechanical destruction had a diameter of approx. 15 cm. As there was no exit wound and no bullet lodged in the body, the injury was caused exclusively by the inrushing combustion gases of the propellant (black powder) comparable with the gas jet of a blank cartridge gun. In contact shots to ballistic gelatine using the suicide's pistol loaded with black powder but no projectile, the formation of a nearly spherical cavity could be demonstrated by means of a high-speed camera. The extent of the temporary cavity after firing with 5 g of black powder roughly corresponded to the zone of destruction found in the suicide's body.