Probabilistic wind power forecasts with an inverse power curve transformation and censored regression

Forecasting wind power is an important part of a successful integration of wind power into the power grid. Forecasts with lead times longer than 6 h are generally made by using statistical methods to post-process forecasts from numerical weather prediction systems. Two major problems that complicate this approach are the non-linear relationship between wind speed and power production and the limited range of power production between zero and nominal power of the turbine. In practice, these problems are often tackled by using non-linear non-parametric regression models. However, such an approach ignores valuable and readily available information: the power curve of the turbine's manufacturer. Much of the non-linearity can be directly accounted for by transforming the observed power production into wind speed via the inverse power curve so that simpler linear regression models can be used. Furthermore, the fact that the transformed power production has a limited range can be taken care of by employing censored regression models. In this study, we evaluate quantile forecasts from a range of methods: (i) using parametric and non-parametric models, (ii) with and without the proposed inverse power curve transformation and (iii) with and without censoring. The results show that with our inverse (power-to-wind) transformation, simpler linear regression models with censoring perform equally or better than non-linear models with or without the frequently used wind-to-power transformation.

Data Assimilation and Inverse Methods in Terms of a Probabilistic Formulation

The weak-constraint inverse for nonlinear dynamical models is discussed and derived in terms of a probabilistic formulation. The well-known result that for Gaussian error statistics the minimum of the weak-constraint inverse is equal to the maximum-likelihood estimate is rederived. Then several methods based on ensemble statistics that can be used to find the smoother (as opposed to the filter) solution are introduced and compared to traditional methods. A strong point of the new methods is that they avoid the integration of adjoint equations, which is a complex task for real oceanographic or atmospheric applications. they also avoid iterative searches in a Hilbert space, and error estimates can be obtained without much additional computational effort. the feasibility of the new methods is illustrated in a two-layer quasigeostrophic model.

The exponentiated generalized inverse Gaussian distribution

The modeling and analysis of lifetime data is an important aspect of statistical work in a wide variety of scientific and technological fields. Good (1953) introduced a probability distribution which is commonly used in the analysis of lifetime data. For the first time, based on this distribution, we propose the so-called exponentiated generalized inverse Gaussian distribution, which extends the exponentiated standard gamma distribution (Nadarajah and Kotz, 2006). Various structural properties of the new distribution are derived, including expansions for its moments, moment generating function, moments of the order statistics, and so forth. We discuss maximum likelihood estimation of the model parameters. The usefulness of the new model is illustrated by means of a real data set. (c) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Leakage Detection And Localization Method Based On A Hybrid Inverse/Direct Modelling Approach Suitable For Handling Multiple-Leak Scenarios

When an accurate hydraulic network model is available, direct modeling techniques are very straightforward and reliable for on-line leakage detection and localization applied to large class of water distribution networks. In general, this type of techniques based on analytical models can be seen as an application of the well-known fault detection and isolation theory for complex industrial systems. Nonetheless, the assumption of single leak scenarios is usually made considering a certain leak size pattern which may not hold in real applications. Upgrading a leak detection and localization method based on a direct modeling approach to handle multiple-leak scenarios can be, on one hand, quite straightforward but, on the other hand, highly computational demanding for large class of water distribution networks given the huge number of potential water loss hotspots. This paper presents a leakage detection and localization method suitable for multiple-leak scenarios and large class of water distribution networks. This method can be seen as an upgrade of the above mentioned method based on a direct modeling approach in which a global search method based on genetic algorithms has been integrated in order to estimate those network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks. This is an inverse / direct modeling method which tries to take benefit from both approaches: on one hand, the exploration capability of genetic algorithms to estimate network water loss hotspots and the size of the leaks and on the other hand, the straightforwardness and reliability offered by the availability of an accurate hydraulic model to assess those close network areas around the estimated hotspots. The application of the resulting method in a DMA of the Barcelona water distribution network is provided and discussed. The obtained results show that leakage detection and localization under multiple-leak scenarios may be performed efficiently following an easy procedure.

Can unobserved heterogeneity in farmer ability explain the inverse relationship between farm size and productivity?

The well-known inverse relationship between farm-size and productivity is usually explained in terms of diminishing returns with respect to land and other inputs coupled with various types of market frictions that prevent the efficient allocation of land across farms. We show that even if in the absence of diminishing returns one can provide an alternative explanation for this phenomenon using endogenous occupational choice and heterogeneity with respect to farming skills.

Material processing by plasma shock wave generated in an inverse Z-pinch plasma expander

The applicability of plasma shock wave for material processing was investigated using modified inverse Z-pinch device. Shock wave expanding speed and plasma spectral analysis were studied using an internal magnetic,probe and spatially collimated light spectroscopy. The material processing capability of the device was shown by many different surface analysis techniques such as AES, IRS, EPM and SEM. The interactions between a plasma shock wave of similar to4x10(6) cm/s speed with a Si substrate surface shows some ion implantation capability using a nitrogen plasma and thin film formation using a methane plasma.

Inverse scattering approach for massive Thirring models with integrable type-II defects

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Suggestion of an inverse relationship between perception of occupational risks and work-related injuries

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Laserlike emission from silica inverse opals infiltrated with rhodamine 6G

Monodisperse latex spheres were obtained by a surfactant free styrene polymerization method and used to obtain colloidal crystals by controlled centrifugation settling. Silica inverse opals were then prepared by using the colloidal crystals as templates and TEOS/ethanol solution. The inverse opals were infiltrated with Rhodamine 6G and laserlike emission was observed at 590 nm under 532 nm pump wavelength. The data show line narrowing of the dye fluorescence and a laser threshold of similar to 0.1 mJ/pulse. Local-field effects and light scattering due to structural defects are the main mechanisms contributing to generation of the laser-action observed. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Rare earth doped synthetic opals and inverse opals

Monodisperse spheres of silica and latex were obtained by a surfactant free styrene polimerization and the Stober method respectively. Controlling settling either by centrifugation or by dip-coating colloidal crystals could be obtained. Silica inverse opals were prepared by using the latex colloidal crystals as templates and TEOS/ethanol solution. Eu3+ containing silica spheres were obtained dispersing silica spheres in Eu(NO3)(3) isopropanol solutions. Emission spectra suggest the formation of an amorphous Eu3+ containing phase well adhered at the spheres surface. The utilization of solutions of trifluoroacetates salts of Pb2+ and Eu3+ was observed to destroy the silica spherical pattern when samples are treated at 1000degreesC. In that case nanocrystals of PbF2 and amorphous silica were obtained after heat treatment.