Predictability of the western North Pacific summer climate demonstrated by the coupled models of ENSEMBLES

The Asian monsoon system, including the western North Pacific (WNP), East Asian, and Indian monsoons, dominates the climate of the Asia-Indian Ocean-Pacific region, and plays a significant role in the global hydrological and energy cycles. The prediction of monsoons and associated climate features is a major challenge in seasonal time scale climate forecast. In this study, a comprehensive assessment of the interannual predictability of the WNP summer climate has been performed using the 1-month lead retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) of five state-of-the-art coupled models from ENSEMBLES for the period of 1960–2005. Spatial distribution of the temporal correlation coefficients shows that the interannual variation of precipitation is well predicted around the Maritime Continent and east of the Philippines. The high skills for the lower-tropospheric circulation and sea surface temperature (SST) spread over almost the whole WNP. These results indicate that the models in general successfully predict the interannual variation of the WNP summer climate. Two typical indices, the WNP summer precipitation index and the WNP lower-tropospheric circulation index (WNPMI), have been used to quantify the forecast skill. The correlation coefficient between five models’ multi-model ensemble (MME) mean prediction and observations for the WNP summer precipitation index reaches 0.66 during 1979–2005 while it is 0.68 for the WNPMI during 1960–2005. The WNPMI-regressed anomalies of lower-tropospheric winds, SSTs and precipitation are similar between observations and MME. Further analysis suggests that prediction reliability of the WNP summer climate mainly arises from the atmosphere–ocean interaction over the tropical Indian and the tropical Pacific Ocean, implying that continuing improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over these regions in CGCMs is a key for long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia. On the other hand, the prediction of the WNP summer climate anomalies exhibits a remarkable spread resulted from uncertainty in initial conditions. The summer anomalies related to the prediction spread, including the lower-tropospheric circulation, SST and precipitation anomalies, show a Pacific-Japan or East Asia-Pacific pattern in the meridional direction over the WNP. Our further investigations suggest that the WNPMI prediction spread arises mainly from the internal dynamics in air–sea interaction over the WNP and Indian Ocean, since the local relationships among the anomalous SST, circulation, and precipitation associated with the spread are similar to those associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in both observations and MME. However, the magnitudes of these anomalies related to the spread are weaker, ranging from one third to a half of those anomalies associated with the interannual variation of the WNPMI in MME over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP. These results further support that the improvement in the representation of the air–sea interaction over the tropical Indian Ocean and subtropical WNP in CGCMs is a key for reducing the prediction spread and for improving the long-lead seasonal forecast over the WNP and East Asia.

Evaluating the likelihood of the adoption of an animal welfare assessment system in European agri-food supply chains

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the likelihood of adoption of a recently designed Welfare Assessment System in agri-food supply chains and the factors affecting the adoption decision. The application is carried out for pig and poultry chains. Design/methodology/approach – This research consisted of two main components: interviews with retailers in pig and poultry supply chains in eight different EU countries to explore their perceptions towards the adoption possibilities of the welfare assessment system; and a conjoint analysis designed to evaluate the perceived adoption likelihood of the assessment system by different Standards Formulating Organisations (SFOs). Findings – Stakeholders were found to be especially concerned about the costs of implementation of the system and how it could, or should, be merged with existing assurance schemes. Another conclusion of the study is that the presence of a strong third independent party supporting the implementation of the welfare assessment system would be the most important influence on the decision whether, or not, to adopt it. Originality/value – This research evaluates the adoption possibilities of a novel Welfare Assessment System and presents the views of different supply chain stakeholders on an adoption of such a system. The main factors affecting the adoption decision are identified and analysed. Contrary to expectations, the costs of adoption of a new welfare assessment system were not considered to be the most important factor affecting the decision of supply chain stakeholders about the adoption of this new welfare system.

Reliability, sufficiency, and the decomposition of proper scores

Scoring rules are an important tool for evaluating the performance of probabilistic forecasting schemes. A scoring rule is called strictly proper if its expectation is optimal if and only if the forecast probability represents the true distribution of the target. In the binary case, strictly proper scoring rules allow for a decomposition into terms related to the resolution and the reliability of a forecast. This fact is particularly well known for the Brier Score. In this article, this result is extended to forecasts for finite-valued targets. Both resolution and reliability are shown to have a positive effect on the score. It is demonstrated that resolution and reliability are directly related to forecast attributes that are desirable on grounds independent of the notion of scores. This finding can be considered an epistemological justification of measuring forecast quality by proper scoring rules. A link is provided to the original work of DeGroot and Fienberg, extending their concepts of sufficiency and refinement. The relation to the conjectured sharpness principle of Gneiting, et al., is elucidated.

Structural role of fluoride in the ion-conducting glass system B(2)O(3)-PbO-LiF studied by single- and double-resonance NMR

The local structure of an ion-conducting glass with nominal composition 50B(2)O(3)-10PbO-40LiF has been investigated by complementary (7)Li, (11)B, (19)F, and (207)Pb single- and double-resonance experiments. The results give insight into the structural role of the lithium fluoride additive in borate glasses: (1) LiF is seen to actively participate in the network transformation process contributing to the conversion of three- into four-coordinate boron units, as shown by (11)B single-resonance as well as by (11)B{(19)F} and (19)F{(11)B} double-resonance experiments. (2) (19)F signal quantification experiments suggest substantial fluoride loss, presumably caused by formation of volatile BF(3). A part of the fluoride remains in the dopant role, possibly in the form of small LiF-like cluster domains, which serve as a mobile ion supply. (3) The extent of lithium-fluorine and lead-fluorine interactions has been characterized by (7)Li{(19)F} and (207)Pb{(19)F} REDOR and SEDOR experiments. On the basis of these results, a quantitative structural description of this system has been developed.

Testing of combined heating systems for small houses: Improved procedures for whole system test methods : Deliverable 2.3

Dynamic system test methods for heating systems were developed and applied by the institutes SERC and SP from Sweden, INES from France and SPF from Switzerland already before the MacSheep project started. These test methods followed the same principle: a complete heating system – including heat generators, storage, control etc., is installed on the test rig; the test rig software and hardware simulates and emulates the heat load for space heating and domestic hot water of a single family house, while the unit under test has to act autonomously to cover the heat demand during a representative test cycle. Within the work package 2 of the MacSheep project these similar – but different – test methods were harmonized and improved. The work undertaken includes:  • Harmonization of the physical boundaries of the unit under test. • Harmonization of the boundary conditions of climate and load. • Definition of an approach to reach identical space heat load in combination with an autonomous control of the space heat distribution by the unit under test. • Derivation and validation of new six day and a twelve day test profiles for direct extrapolation of test results.   The new harmonized test method combines the advantages of the different methods that existed before the MacSheep project. The new method is a benchmark test, which means that the load for space heating and domestic hot water preparation will be identical for all tested systems, and that the result is representative for the performance of the system over a whole year. Thus, no modelling and simulation of the tested system is needed in order to obtain the benchmark results for a yearly cycle. The method is thus also applicable to products for which simulation models are not available yet. Some of the advantages of the new whole system test method and performance rating compared to the testing and energy rating of single components are:  • Interaction between the different components of a heating system, e.g. storage, solar collector circuit, heat pump, control, etc. are included and evaluated in this test. • Dynamic effects are included and influence the result just as they influence the annual performance in the field. • Heat losses are influencing the results in a more realistic way, since they are evaluated under "real installed" and representative part-load conditions rather than under single component steady state conditions.   The described method is also suited for the development process of new systems, where it replaces time-consuming and costly field testing with the advantage of a higher accuracy of the measured data (compared to the typically used measurement equipment in field tests) and identical, thus comparable boundary conditions. Thus, the method can be used for system optimization in the test bench under realistic operative conditions, i.e. under relevant operating environment in the lab.   This report describes the physical boundaries of the tested systems, as well as the test procedures and the requirements for both the unit under test and the test facility. The new six day and twelve day test profiles are also described as are the validation results.

A Gradient-Type Method For Real-Time State Estimation Of Water Distribution Networks

Drinking water distribution networks risk exposure to malicious or accidental contamination. Several levels of responses are conceivable. One of them consists to install a sensor network to monitor the system on real time. Once a contamination has been detected, this is also important to take appropriate counter-measures. In the SMaRT-OnlineWDN project, this relies on modeling to predict both hydraulics and water quality. An online model use makes identification of the contaminant source and simulation of the contaminated area possible. The objective of this paper is to present SMaRT-OnlineWDN experience and research results for hydraulic state estimation with sampling frequency of few minutes. A least squares problem with bound constraints is formulated to adjust demand class coefficient to best fit the observed values at a given time. The criterion is a Huber function to limit the influence of outliers. A Tikhonov regularization is introduced for consideration of prior information on the parameter vector. Then the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm is applied that use derivative information for limiting the number of iterations. Confidence intervals for the state prediction are also given. The results are presented and discussed on real networks in France and Germany.

Newly Automated System For Integrated Assessment Of The Conditions Of Underwater Gas Pipelines

An underwater gas pipeline is the portion of the pipeline that crosses a river beneath its bottom. Underwater gas pipelines are subject to increasing dangers as time goes by. An accident at an underwater gas pipeline can lead to technological and environmental disaster on the scale of an entire region. Therefore, timely troubleshooting of all underwater gas pipelines in order to prevent any potential accidents will remain a pressing task for the industry. The most important aspect of resolving this challenge is the quality of the automated system in question. Now the industry doesn't have any automated system that fully meets the needs of the experts working in the field maintaining underwater gas pipelines. Principle Aim of this Research: This work aims to develop a new system of automated monitoring which would simplify the process of evaluating the technical condition and decision making on planning and preventive maintenance and repair work on the underwater gas pipeline. Objectives: Creation a shared model for a new, automated system via IDEF3; Development of a new database system which would store all information about underwater gas pipelines; Development a new application that works with database servers, and provides an explanation of the results obtained from the server; Calculation of the values MTBF for specified pipelines based on quantitative data obtained from tests of this system. Conclusion: The new, automated system PodvodGazExpert has been developed for timely and qualitative determination of the physical conditions of underwater gas pipeline; The basis of the mathematical analysis of this new, automated system uses principal component analysis method; The process of determining the physical condition of an underwater gas pipeline with this new, automated system increases the MTBF by a factor of 8.18 above the existing system used today in the industry.

Strategic capacitor placement in distribution systems by minimisation of harmonics amplification because of resonance

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Planning and Projects of Secondary Electric Power Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a methodology to achieve integrated planning and projects for secondary distribution circuits. The planning model is formulated as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to resolve this problem, a tabu search (TS) algorithm is used, with a neighborhood structure developed to explore the physical characteristics of specific geographies included in the planning and expansion of secondary networks, thus obtaining effective solutions as well as low operating costs and investments. The project stage of secondary circuits consists of calculating the mechanical efforts to determine the support structures of the primary and secondary distribution systems and determining the types of structures that should be used in the system according to topological and electrical parameters of the network and, therefore, accurately assessing the costs involved in the construction and/or reform of secondary systems. A constructive heuristic based on information of the electrical and topological conditions between the medium voltage and low voltage systems is used to connect the primary systems and secondary circuits. The results obtained from planning and design simulations of a real secondary system of electric energy distribution are presented.

Effect of Passive Fit Absence in the Prosthesis/Implant/Retaining Screw System: A Two-Dimensional Finite Element Analysis

The misfit between prostheses and implants is a clinical reality, but the level that can be accepted without causing mechanical or biologic problem is not well defined. This study investigates the effect of different levels of unilateral angular misfit prostheses in the prosthesis/implant/retaining screw system and in the surrounding bone using finite element analysis. Four models of a two-dimensional finite element were constructed: group I (control), prosthesis that fit the implant; groups 2 to 4, prostheses with unilateral angular misfit of 50, 100, and 200 mu m, respectively. A load of 133 N was applied with a 30-degree angulation and off-axis at 2 mm from the long axis of the implant at the opposite direction of misfit on the models. Taking into account the increase of the angular misfit, the stress maps showed a gradual increase of prosthesis stress and uniform stress in the implant and trabecular bone. Concerning the displacement, an inclination of the system due to loading and misfit was observed. The decrease of the unilateral contact between prosthesis and implant leads to the displacement of the entire system, and distribution and magnitude alterations of the stress also occurred.

Analytical and Monte Carlo approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration

Regulatory authorities in many countries, in order to maintain an acceptable balance between appropriate customer service qualities and costs, are introducing a performance-based regulation. These regulations impose penalties-and, in some cases, rewards-that introduce a component of financial risk to an electric power utility due to the uncertainty associated with preserving a specific level of system reliability. In Brazil, for instance, one of the reliability indices receiving special attention by the utilities is the maximum continuous interruption duration (MCID) per customer.This parameter is responsible for the majority of penalties in many electric distribution utilities. This paper describes analytical and Monte Carlo simulation approaches to evaluate probability distributions of interruption duration indices. More emphasis will be given to the development of an analytical method to assess the probability distribution associated with the parameter MCID and the correspond ng penalties. Case studies on a simple distribution network and on a real Brazilian distribution system are presented and discussed.

Elastic system of the rat ventral prostate and its modifications following orchiectomy

BACKGROUND. The extracellular matrix (ECM) has important roles in prostatic development, and marked stromal changes take place in the rat ventral prostate (VP) after androgen deprivation. However, little knowledge exists about individual ECM components.METHODS. The distribution of elastic fibers (EF) and elastic-related fibers (ERF) in the VP of castrated and control rats was investigated, using histochemistry and transmission electron microscopy (TEM).RESULTS. EF are barely detected in the prostatic stroma, but ERF are relatively abundant. Castration results in a relative increase in the number and thickness of ERF. TEM showed an open network of ECM microfibrils throughout the stroma and thin and short EF, which increase in number and thickness after orchiectomy.CONCLUSIONS. The presence of elastic system components in the rat VP warrants the deformability required for the secretion exclusion under the action of smooth muscle cells, and the castration-induced modification may be related to the contraction of the tissue and maintenance of peculiar arrangements of other ECM components. (C) 1997 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Planning of secondary distribution circuits through evolutionary algorithms

In this work, the planning of secondary distribution circuits is approached as a mixed integer nonlinear programming problem (MINLP). In order to solve this problem, a dedicated evolutionary algorithm (EA) is proposed. This algorithm uses a codification scheme, genetic operators, and control parameters, projected and managed to consider the specific characteristics of the secondary network planning. The codification scheme maps the possible solutions that satisfy the requirements in order to obtain an effective and low-cost projected system-the conductors' adequate dimensioning, load balancing among phases, and the transformer placed at the center of the secondary system loads. An effective algorithm for three-phase power flow is used as an auxiliary methodology of the EA for the calculation of the fitness function proposed for solutions of each topology. Results for two secondary distribution circuits are presented, whereas one presents radial topology and the other a weakly meshed topology. © 2005 IEEE.

Integrated planning of electric power distribution networks

In this work, a heuristic model for integrated planning of primary distribution network and secondary distribution circuits is proposed. A Tabu Search (TS) algorithm is employed to solve the planning of primary distribution networks. Evolutionary Algorithms (EA) are used to solve the planning model of secondary networks. The planning integration of both networks is carried out by means a constructive heuristic taking into account a set of integration alternatives between these networks. These integration alternatives are treated in a hierarchical way. The planning of primary networks and secondary distribution circuits is carried out based on assessment of the effects of the alternative solutions in the expansion costs of both networks simultaneously. In order to evaluate this methodology, tests were performed for a real-life distribution system taking into account the primary and secondary networks.

Optimal allocation of distributed generators providing reactive power support ancillary service

Problems as voltage increase at the end of a feeder, demand supply unbalance in a fault condition, power quality decline, increase of power losses, and reduction of reliability levels may occur if Distributed Generators (DGs) are not properly allocated. For this reason, researchers have been employed several solution techniques to solve the problem of optimal allocation of DGs. This work is focused on the ancillary service of reactive power support provided by DGs. The main objective is to price this service by determining the costs in which a DG incurs when it loses sales opportunity of active power, i.e, by determining the Loss of Opportunity Costs (LOC). The LOC will be determined for different allocation alternatives of DGs as a result of a multi-objective optimization process, aiming the minimization of losses in the lines of the system and costs of active power generation from DGs, and the maximization of the static voltage stability margin of the system. The effectiveness of the proposed methodology in improving the goals outlined was demonstrated using the IEEE 34 bus distribution test feeder with two DGs cosidered to be allocated. © 2011 IEEE.