Forecasts of relative performance in tournaments: Evidence from the field

This paper uses a field experiment to investigate the quality of individuals’ forecasts of relative performance in tournaments. We ask players in luck-based (poker) and skill-based (chess) tournaments to make point forecasts of rank. The main finding of the paper is that players’ forecasts in both types of tournaments are biased towards overestimation of relative performance. However, the size of the biases found is not as large as the ones often reported in the psychology literature. We also find support for the “unskilled and unaware hypothesis” in chess: high skilled chess players make better forecasts than low skilled chess players. Finally, we find that chess players’ forecasts of relative performance are not efficient.

Machine learning Gaussian short rate

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Estatística e Gestão do Risco

Life cycle and reproductive patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria (Blanchard, 1843) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) under constant and fluctuating conditions of temperature and humidity

The aim of this study was to evaluate the temperature and relative humidity influence in the life cycle, mortality and fecundity patterns of Triatoma rubrovaria. Four cohorts with 60 recently laid eggs each were conformed. The cohorts were divided into two groups. In the controlled conditions group insects were maintained in a dark climatic chamber under constant temperature and humidity, whereas triatomines of the ambiental temperature group were maintained at room temperature. Average incubation time was 15.6 days in the controlled conditions group and 19.1 days in the ambiental temperature. In group controlled conditions the time from egg to adult development lasted 10 months while group ambiental temperature took four months longer. Egg eclosion rate was 99.1% and 98.3% in controlled conditions and ambiental temperature, respectively. Total nymphal mortality in controlled conditions was 52.6% whereas in ambiental temperature was 51.8%. Mean number of eggs/female was 817.6 controlled conditions and 837.1 ambiental temperature. Fluctuating temperature and humidity promoted changes in the life cycle duration and in the reproductive performance of this species, although not in the species mortality.

Métodos estatísticos aplicados à modelação de dados oncológicos

RESUMO: A estrutura demográfica portuguesa é marcada por baixas taxas de natalidade e mortalidade, onde a população idosa representa uma fatia cada vez mais representativa, fruto de uma maior longevidade. A incidência do cancro, na sua generalidade, é maior precisamente nessa classe etária. A par de outras doenças igualmente lesivas (e.g. cardiovasculares, degenerativas) cuja incidência aumenta com a idade, o cancro merece relevo. Estudos epidemiológicos apresentam o cancro como líder mundial na mortalidade. Em países desenvolvidos, o seu peso representa 25% do número total de óbitos, percentagem essa que mais que duplica noutros países. A obesidade, a baixa ingestão de frutas e vegetais, o sedentarismo, o consumo de tabaco e a ingestão de álcool, configuram-se como cinco dos fatores de risco presentes em 30% das mortes diagnosticadas por cancro. A nível mundial e, em particular no Sul de Portugal, os cancros do estômago, recto e cólon apresentam elevadas taxas de incidência e de mortalidade. Do ponto de vista estritamente económico, o cancro é a doença que mais recursos consome enquanto que do ponto de vista físico e psicológico é uma doença que não limita o seu raio de ação ao doente. O cancro é, portanto, uma doença sempre atual e cada vez mais presente, pois reflete os hábitos e o ambiente de uma sociedade, não obstante as características intrínsecas a cada indivíduo. A adoção de metodologia estatística aplicada à modelação de dados oncológicos é, sobretudo, valiosa e pertinente quando a informação é oriunda de Registos de Cancro de Base Populacional (RCBP). A pertinência é justificada pelo fato destes registos permitirem aferir numa população específica, o risco desta sofrer e/ou vir a sofrer de uma dada neoplasia. O peso que as neoplasias do estômago, cólon e recto assumem foi um dos elementos que motivou o presente estudo que tem por objetivo analisar tendências, projeções, sobrevivências relativas e a distribuição espacial destas neoplasias. Foram considerados neste estudo todos os casos diagnosticados no período 1998-2006, pelo RCBP da região sul de Portugal (ROR-Sul). O estudo descritivo inicial das taxas de incidência e da tendência em cada uma das referidas neoplasias teve como base uma única variável temporal - o ano de diagnóstico - também designada por período. Todavia, uma metodologia que contemple apenas uma única variável temporal é limitativa. No cancro, para além do período, a idade à data do diagnóstico e a coorte de nascimento, são variáveis temporais que poderão prestar um contributo adicional na caracterização das taxas de incidência. A relevância assumida por estas variáveis temporais justificou a sua inclusão numaclasse de modelos designada por modelos Idade-Período-Coorte (Age-Period-Cohort models - APC), utilizada na modelação das taxas de incidência para as neoplasias em estudo. Os referidos modelos permitem ultrapassar o problema de relações não lineares e/ou de mudanças súbitas na tendência linear das taxas. Nos modelos APC foram consideradas a abordagem clássica e a abordagem com recurso a funções suavizadoras. A modelação das taxas foi estratificada por sexo. Foram ainda estudados os respectivos submodelos (apenas com uma ou duas variáveis temporais). Conhecido o comportamento das taxas de incidência, uma questão subsequente prende-se com a sua projeção em períodos futuros. Porém, o efeito de mudanças estruturais na população, ao qual Portugal não é alheio, altera substancialmente o número esperado de casos futuros com cancro. Estimativas da incidência de cancro a nível mundial obtidas a partir de projeções demográficas apontam para um aumento de 25% dos casos de cancro nas próximas duas décadas. Embora a projeção da incidência esteja associada a alguma incerteza, as projeções auxiliam no planeamento de políticas de saúde para a afetação de recursos e permitem a avaliação de cenários e de intervenções que tenham como objetivo a redução do impacto do cancro. O desconhecimento de projeções da taxa de incidência destas neoplasias na área abrangida pelo ROR-Sul, levou à utilização de modelos de projeção que diferem entre si quanto à sua estrutura, linearidade (ou não) dos seus coeficientes e comportamento das taxas na série histórica de dados (e.g. crescente, decrescente ou estável). Os referidos modelos pautaram-se por duas abordagens: (i)modelos lineares no que concerne ao tempo e (ii) extrapolação de efeitos temporais identificados pelos modelos APC para períodos futuros. Foi feita a projeção das taxas de incidência para os anos de 2007 a 2010 tendo em conta o género, idade e neoplasia. É ainda apresentada uma estimativa do impacto económico destas neoplasias no período de projeção. Uma questão pertinente e habitual no contexto clínico e a que o presente estudo pretende dar resposta, reside em saber qual a contribuição da neoplasia em si para a sobrevivência do doente. Nesse sentido, a mortalidade por causa específica é habitualmente utilizada para estimar a mortalidade atribuível apenas ao cancro em estudo. Porém, existem muitas situações em que a causa de morte é desconhecida e, mesmo que esta informação esteja disponível através dos certificados de óbito, não é fácil distinguir os casos em que a principal causa de morte é devida ao cancro. A sobrevivência relativa surge como uma medida objetiva que não necessita do conhecimento da causa específica da morte para o seu cálculo e dar-nos-á uma estimativa da probabilidade de sobrevivência caso o cancro em análise, num cenário hipotético, seja a única causa de morte. Desconhecida a principal causa de morte nos casos diagnosticados com cancro no registo ROR-Sul, foi determinada a sobrevivência relativa para cada uma das neoplasias em estudo, para um período de follow-up de 5 anos, tendo em conta o sexo, a idade e cada uma das regiões que constituem o registo. Foi adotada uma análise por período e as abordagens convencional e por modelos. No epílogo deste estudo, é analisada a influência da variabilidade espaço-temporal nas taxas de incidência. O longo período de latência das doenças oncológicas, a dificuldade em identificar mudanças súbitas no comportamento das taxas, populações com dimensão e riscos reduzidos, são alguns dos elementos que dificultam a análise da variação temporal das taxas. Nalguns casos, estas variações podem ser reflexo de flutuações aleatórias. O efeito da componente temporal aferida pelos modelos APC dá-nos um retrato incompleto da incidência do cancro. A etiologia desta doença, quando conhecida, está associada com alguma frequência a fatores de risco tais como condições socioeconómicas, hábitos alimentares e estilo de vida, atividade profissional, localização geográfica e componente genética. O “contributo”, dos fatores de risco é, por vezes, determinante e não deve ser ignorado. Surge, assim, a necessidade em complementar o estudo temporal das taxas com uma abordagem de cariz espacial. Assim, procurar-se-á aferir se as variações nas taxas de incidência observadas entre os concelhos inseridos na área do registo ROR-Sul poderiam ser explicadas quer pela variabilidade temporal e geográfica quer por fatores socioeconómicos ou, ainda, pelos desiguais estilos de vida. Foram utilizados os Modelos Bayesianos Hierárquicos Espaço-Temporais com o objetivo de identificar tendências espaço-temporais nas taxas de incidência bem como quantificar alguns fatores de risco ajustados à influência simultânea da região e do tempo. Os resultados obtidos pela implementação de todas estas metodologias considera-se ser uma mais valia para o conhecimento destas neoplasias em Portugal.------------ABSTRACT: mortality rates, with the elderly being an increasingly representative sector of the population, mainly due to greater longevity. The incidence of cancer, in general, is greater precisely in that age group. Alongside with other equally damaging diseases (e.g. cardiovascular,degenerative), whose incidence rates increases with age, cancer is of special note. In epidemiological studies, cancer is the global leader in mortality. In developed countries its weight represents 25% of the total number of deaths, with this percentage being doubled in other countries. Obesity, a reduce consumption of fruit and vegetables, physical inactivity, smoking and alcohol consumption, are the five risk factors present in 30% of deaths due to cancer. Globally, and in particular in the South of Portugal, the stomach, rectum and colon cancer have high incidence and mortality rates. From a strictly economic perspective, cancer is the disease that consumes more resources, while from a physical and psychological point of view, it is a disease that is not limited to the patient. Cancer is therefore na up to date disease and one of increased importance, since it reflects the habits and the environment of a society, regardless the intrinsic characteristics of each individual. The adoption of statistical methodology applied to cancer data modelling is especially valuable and relevant when the information comes from population-based cancer registries (PBCR). In such cases, these registries allow for the assessment of the risk and the suffering associated to a given neoplasm in a specific population. The weight that stomach, colon and rectum cancers assume in Portugal was one of the motivations of the present study, that focus on analyzing trends, projections, relative survival and spatial distribution of these neoplasms. The data considered in this study, are all cases diagnosed between 1998 and 2006, by the PBCR of Portugal, ROR-Sul.Only year of diagnosis, also called period, was the only time variable considered in the initial descriptive analysis of the incidence rates and trends for each of the three neoplasms considered. However, a methodology that only considers one single time variable will probably fall short on the conclusions that could be drawn from the data under study. In cancer, apart from the variable period, the age at diagnosis and the birth cohort are also temporal variables and may provide an additional contribution to the characterization of the incidence. The relevance assumed by these temporal variables justified its inclusion in a class of models called Age-Period-Cohort models (APC). This class of models was used for the analysis of the incidence rates of the three cancers under study. APC models allow to model nonlinearity and/or sudden changes in linear relationships of rate trends. Two approaches of APC models were considered: the classical and the one using smoothing functions. The models were stratified by gender and, when justified, further studies explored other sub-models where only one or two temporal variables were considered. After the analysis of the incidence rates, a subsequent goal is related to their projections in future periods. Although the effect of structural changes in the population, of which Portugal is not oblivious, may substantially change the expected number of future cancer cases, the results of these projections could help planning health policies with the proper allocation of resources, allowing for the evaluation of scenarios and interventions that aim to reduce the impact of cancer in a population. Worth noting that cancer incidence worldwide obtained from demographic projections point out to an increase of 25% of cancer cases in the next two decades. The lack of projections of incidence rates of the three cancers under study in the area covered by ROR-Sul, led us to use a variety of forecasting models that differ in the nature and structure. For example, linearity or nonlinearity in their coefficients and the trend of the incidence rates in historical data series (e.g. increasing, decreasing or stable).The models followed two approaches: (i) linear models regarding time and (ii) extrapolation of temporal effects identified by the APC models for future periods. The study provide incidence rates projections and the numbers of newly diagnosed cases for the year, 2007 to 2010, taking into account gender, age and the type of cancer. In addition, an estimate of the economic impact of these neoplasms is presented for the projection period considered. This research also try to address a relevant and common clinical question in these type of studies, regarding the contribution of the type of cancer to the patient survival. In such studies, the primary cause of death is commonly used to estimate the mortality specifically due to the cancer. However, there are many situations in which the cause of death is unknown, or, even if this information is available through the death certificates, it is not easy to distinguish the cases where the primary cause of death is the cancer. With this in mind, the relative survival is an alternative measure that does not need the knowledge of the specific cause of death to be calculated. This estimate will represent the survival probability in the hypothetical scenario of a certain cancer be the only cause of death. For the patients with unknown cause of death that were diagnosed with cancer in the ROR-Sul, the relative survival was calculated for each of the cancers under study, for a follow-up period of 5 years, considering gender, age and each one of the regions that are part the registry. A period analysis was undertaken, considering both the conventional and the model approaches. In final part of this study, we analyzed the influence of space-time variability in the incidence rates. The long latency period of oncologic diseases, the difficulty in identifying subtle changes in the rates behavior, populations of reduced size and low risk are some of the elements that can be a challenge in the analysis of temporal variations in rates, that, in some cases, can reflect simple random fluctuations. The effect of the temporal component measured by the APC models gives an incomplete picture of the cancer incidence. The etiology of this disease, when known, is frequently associated to risk factors such as socioeconomic conditions, eating habits and lifestyle, occupation, geographic location and genetic component. The "contribution"of such risk factors is sometimes decisive in the evolution of the disease and should not be ignored. Therefore, there was the need to consider an additional approach in this study, one of spatial nature, addressing the fact that changes in incidence rates observed in the ROR-Sul area, could be explained either by temporal and geographical variability or by unequal socio-economic or lifestyle factors. Thus, Bayesian hierarchical space-time models were used with the purpose of identifying space-time trends in incidence rates together with the the analysis of the effect of the risk factors considered in the study. The results obtained and the implementation of all these methodologies are considered to be an added value to the knowledge of these neoplasms in Portugal.

Structured products in the current low interest rate environment

Directed Research Internship

An analysis of the spatiotemporal distribution of American cutaneous leishmaniasis in counties located along road and railway corridors in the State of Maranhao, Brazil

Introduction The incidence of American cutaneous leishmaniasis (ACL) is increasing in Latin America, especially in Brazil, where 256,587 cases were confirmed in the last decade. Methods This study used a Bayesian model to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of ACL cases between 2000 and 2009 in 61 counties of State of Maranhão located along the three main road and railway corridors. Results During the study period, 13,818 cases of ACL were recorded. There was a significant decrease in the incidence of ACL in the ten study years. The recorded incidence rate ranged from 7.36 to 241.45 per 100,000 inhabitants. The relative risk increased in 77% of the counties, decreased in 18% and was maintained in only five counties. Conclusions Although there was a decreased incidence of the disease, ACL was present in all of the examined municipalities, thus maintaining the risk of contracting this illness.

High visceral leishmaniasis mortality rate in Barra Mansa, a new area of visceral leishmaniasis transmission in the State of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

Introduction Nine cases of visceral leishmaniasis occurred recently in Barra Mansa, State of Rio de Janeiro, with a high mortality rate. Methods We reviewed the medical records of the patients. Results Eight were male; 7 were adults. Patients who died progressed to death quickly and presented with aggravating factors: systemic steroid therapy before diagnosis, bleeding, severe liver involvement, infection, and/or refusal to receive transfusion. Conclusions We warn clinicians to be aware of the emergence of visceral leishmaniasis in new areas and to keep in mind the possibility of atypical clinical pictures and aggravating factors, so timely diagnosis can be made and prompt and adequate treatment can be initiated.

Poor response to azithromycin in cutaneous leishmaniasis leading to a premature interruption of a multicentric phase III clinical trial in Brazil

Introduction Parenteral antimony-based compounds are still the standard of care for cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) treatment in many countries, despite their high toxicity. Previous studies showed that oral azithromycin could be an option for CL treatment. The aim of this study was to evaluate efficacy and safety of oral azithromycin (AZ) for CL treatment compared with injectable meglumine antimoniate (MA). Methods This was a randomized, open-label, 2-arm, non-inferiority clinical trial. Treatment-naïve patients with localized CL were treated with MA (15mg/kg/day up to 1,215mg) or AZ (500mg/day) during 20 consecutive days. The primary efficacy end point was a CL cure 90 days after treatment completion. The analysis was performed with intention-to-treat (ITT) and per protocol (PP) analyses. After an anticipated interim analysis, the study was interrupted due to the high failure rate in the azithromycin group. Results Twenty-four volunteers were included in each group. The MA group had a higher cure rate than the AZ group with the ITT and PP analyses, which were 54.2% versus 20.8% [relative risk (RR) 1.97; 95% confidence intervals (95%CI) 1.13-3.42] and 72.2% versus 23.8% (RR 3.03; 95%CI 1.34-6.87), respectively. No unexpected adverse events were observed. Conclusions Azithromycin is ineffective for CL treatment and does not seem to have a role in the therapeutic arsenal for CL.

Pulmonary tuberculosis in São Luis, State of Maranhão, Brazil: space and space-time risk clusters for death (2008-2012)

INTRODUCTION: The objective was to identify space and space-time risk clusters for the occurrence of deaths in a priority city for the control of tuberculosis (TB) in the Brazilian Northeast. METHODS: Ecological research was undertaken in the City of São Luis/Maranhão. Cases were considered that resulted in deaths in the population living in the urban region of the city with pulmonary TB as the basic cause, between 2008 and 2012. To detect space and space-time clusters of deaths due to pulmonary TB in the census sectors, the spatial analysis scan technique was used. RESULTS: In total, 221 deaths by TB occurred, 193 of which were due to pulmonary TB. Approximately 95% of the cases (n=183) were geocoded. Two significant spatial clusters were identified, the first of which showed a mortality rate of 5.8 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk of 3.87. The second spatial cluster showed a mortality rate of 0.4 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a low relative risk of 0.10. A significant cluster was observed in the space-time analysis between 11/01/2008 and 04/30/2011, with a mortality rate of 8.10 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants per year and a high relative risk (3.0). CONCLUSIONS: The knowledge of priority sites for the occurrence of deaths can support public management to reduce inequities in the access to health services and permit an optimization of the resources and teams in the control of pulmonary TB, providing support for specific strategies focused on the most vulnerable populations.

Essays on bounded rationality: Individual decision and strategic interaction

Economics is a social science which, therefore, focuses on people and on the decisions they make, be it in an individual context, or in group situations. It studies human choices, in face of needs to be fulfilled, and a limited amount of resources to fulfill them. For a long time, there was a convergence between the normative and positive views of human behavior, in that the ideal and predicted decisions of agents in economic models were entangled in one single concept. That is, it was assumed that the best that could be done in each situation was exactly the choice that would prevail. Or, at least, that the facts that economics needed to explain could be understood in the light of models in which individual agents act as if they are able to make ideal decisions. However, in the last decades, the complexity of the environment in which economic decisions are made and the limits on the ability of agents to deal with it have been recognized, and incorporated into models of decision making in what came to be known as the bounded rationality paradigm. This was triggered by the incapacity of the unboundedly rationality paradigm to explain observed phenomena and behavior. This thesis contributes to the literature in three different ways. Chapter 1 is a survey on bounded rationality, which gathers and organizes the contributions to the field since Simon (1955) first recognized the necessity to account for the limits on human rationality. The focus of the survey is on theoretical work rather than the experimental literature which presents evidence of actual behavior that differs from what classic rationality predicts. The general framework is as follows. Given a set of exogenous variables, the economic agent needs to choose an element from the choice set that is avail- able to him, in order to optimize the expected value of an objective function (assuming his preferences are representable by such a function). If this problem is too complex for the agent to deal with, one or more of its elements is simplified. Each bounded rationality theory is categorized according to the most relevant element it simplifes. Chapter 2 proposes a novel theory of bounded rationality. Much in the same fashion as Conlisk (1980) and Gabaix (2014), we assume that thinking is costly in the sense that agents have to pay a cost for performing mental operations. In our model, if they choose not to think, such cost is avoided, but they are left with a single alternative, labeled the default choice. We exemplify the idea with a very simple model of consumer choice and identify the concept of isofin curves, i.e., sets of default choices which generate the same utility net of thinking cost. Then, we apply the idea to a linear symmetric Cournot duopoly, in which the default choice can be interpreted as the most natural quantity to be produced in the market. We find that, as the thinking cost increases, the number of firms thinking in equilibrium decreases. More interestingly, for intermediate levels of thinking cost, an equilibrium in which one of the firms chooses the default quantity and the other best responds to it exists, generating asymmetric choices in a symmetric model. Our model is able to explain well-known regularities identified in the Cournot experimental literature, such as the adoption of different strategies by players (Huck et al. , 1999), the inter temporal rigidity of choices (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003) and the dispersion of quantities in the context of di cult decision making (Bosch-Dom enech & Vriend, 2003). Chapter 3 applies a model of bounded rationality in a game-theoretic set- ting to the well-known turnout paradox in large elections, pivotal probabilities vanish very quickly and no one should vote, in sharp contrast with the ob- served high levels of turnout. Inspired by the concept of rhizomatic thinking, introduced by Bravo-Furtado & Côrte-Real (2009a), we assume that each per- son is self-delusional in the sense that, when making a decision, she believes that a fraction of the people who support the same party decides alike, even if no communication is established between them. This kind of belief simplifies the decision of the agent, as it reduces the number of players he believes to be playing against { it is thus a bounded rationality approach. Studying a two-party first-past-the-post election with a continuum of self-delusional agents, we show that the turnout rate is positive in all the possible equilibria, and that it can be as high as 100%. The game displays multiple equilibria, at least one of which entails a victory of the bigger party. The smaller one may also win, provided its relative size is not too small; more self-delusional voters in the minority party decreases this threshold size. Our model is able to explain some empirical facts, such as the possibility that a close election leads to low turnout (Geys, 2006), a lower margin of victory when turnout is higher (Geys, 2006) and high turnout rates favoring the minority (Bernhagen & Marsh, 1997).

Intraventricular hemorrhage in very low birth weight infants: associated risk factors and outcome in the neonatal period

Intraventricular hemorrhage (IVH) is a severe complication in very low birth weight (VLBW) newborns (NB). With the purpose of studying the incidence of IVH, the associated risk factors, and the outcomes for these neonates, we studied all the VLBW infants born in our neonatal unit. Birth weight, gestational age, presence of perinatal asphyxia, mechanical ventilation, length of hospitalization, apnea crisis, hydrocephalus, and periventricular leukomalacia were analyzed. The diagnosis of IVH was based on ultrasound scan studies (Papile's classification) performed until the tenth day of life and repeated weekly in the presence of abnormalities. Sixty-seven/101 neonates were studied. The mortality rate was 30.6% (31/101) and the incidence of IVH was 29.8% (20/67) : 70% grade I, 20% grade III and 10% grade IV. The incidence of IVH in NB <1,000 g was 53.8% (p = 0.035) and for gestational age <30 weeks was 47.3% (p = 0.04), both considered risk factors for IVH. The length of hospitalization (p = 0.00015) and mechanical ventilation (p = 0.038) were longer in IHV NB. The IVH NB had a relative risk of 2.3 of developing apnea (p = 0.02), 3.7 of hydrocephalus (p = 0.0007), and 7.7 of periventricular leukomalacia (p < 0.00001). The authors emphasize the importance of knowing the risk factors related to IVH so as to introduce prevention schemes to reduce IVH and to improve outcomes of affected newborns.

Desigualdades na diabetes mellitus e hipertensão arterial: um estudo ao nível de freguesia

RESUMO - Introdução: A diabetes mellitus e a hipertensão arterial são problemas de saúde de elevada prevalência em Portugal. A sua distribuição geográfica e social é pouco conhecida, comprometendo o desenho e implementação de políticas de saúde. Assim, este estudo teve como objetivo avaliar a existência das desigualdades socioeconómicas na prevalência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 e de hipertensão arterial, na população residente na região Norte de Portugal, no ano de 2013. Métodos: Foi realizado um estudo ecológico que analisou as 2028 freguesias da região Norte. Os dados foram obtidos através do Sistema de Informação das Administrações Regionais de Saúde e do Censos 2011. A associação entre os indicadores socioeconómicos e a prevalência destas doenças foi medida através da diferença de prevalências, do risco atribuível populacional, do índice relativo de desigualdades e pelo coeficiente de regressão. Resultados: A prevalência de diabetes mellitus tipo 2 e hipertensão arterial foi de 6,16% e 19,35%, respetivamente, e apresentou uma distribuição heterogénea entre freguesias (variando entre 0%-23,7% para a diabetes e 2,8%-66,7% para a hipertensão). A prevalência de ambas as doenças estava significativamente associada com o baixo nível educacional, baixa atividade em sector terciário, desemprego e baixo rendimento (com diferença de prevalências entre decis opostos de até 1,3% na diabetes e até 5,3% na hipertensão). Os determinantes socioeconómicos foram responsáveis até 20% da prevalência destas doenças na população. Conclusão: Estes resultados demonstram a existência de uma distribuição socioeconómica e geográfica heterogéneas e a necessidade de criação de políticas de saúde que atuem nas freguesias menos favorecidas.

Coupling organic substrate removal to methane production in a fully biological microbial electrolysis cell

Microbial electrolysis cells (MECs) are an innovative and emerging technique based on the use of solid-state electrodes to stimulate microbial metabolism for wastewater treatment and simultaneous production of value-added compounds (such as methane). This research studied the performance of a two-chamber MEC in terms of organic matter oxidation (at the anode) and methane production (at the cathode). MEC‟s anode had been previously inoculated with an activated sludge, whereas the cathode chamber inoculum was an anaerobic sludge (containing methanogenic microorganisms). During the experimentation, the bioanode was continuously fed with synthetic solutions in anaerobic basal medium, at an organic load rate (OLR) of around 1 g L-1 d-1, referred to the chemical oxygen demand (COD). At the beginning (Run I), the feeding solution contained acetate and subsequently (Run II) it was replaced with a more complex solution containing soluble organic compounds other than acetate. For both conditions, the anode potential was controlled at -0.1 V vs. standard hydrogen electrode, by means of a potentiostat. During Run I, over 80% of the influent acetate was anaerobically oxidized at the anode, and the resulting electric current was recovered as methane at the cathode (with a cathode capture efficiency, CCE, accounting around 115 %). The average energy efficiency of the system (i.e., the energy captured into methane relative to the electrical energy input) under these conditions was over 170%. However, reactor‟s performance decreased over time during this run. Throughout Run II, a substrate oxidation over 60% (on COD basis) was observed. The electric current produced (57% of coulombic efficiency) was also recovered as methane, with a CCE of 90%. For this run the MEC‟s average energy efficiency accounted for almost 170 %. During all the experimentation, a very low biomass growth was observed at the anode whereas ammonium was transferred through the cationic membrane and concentrated at the cathode. Tracer experiments and scanning electron microscopy analyses were also carried out to gain a deeper insight into the reactor performance and also to investigate the possible reasons for partial loss of performance. In conclusion, this research suggests the great potential of MEC to successfully treat low-strength wastewaters, with high energy efficiency and very low sludge production.

Exchange rate pressure in Angola

The objective of this work is to develop an operational tool to analyze exchange rate pressure in the context of Angola. The Angolan economy exhibits a number of relevant characteristics: a closed financial account, a partially controlled current account, a highly dollarized economy and exports (oil) price determined in World markets. These features have a direct effect on the demand of foreign currency and motivate their inclusion in the specification of a model for Angola. The model provides the rational for a measure of an exchange market rate pressure (EMP) index that contains exports changes, imports changes, the foreign interest rate and inflation and the change in foreign reserves corrected for a measure dollarization. The empirical performance new measure is comparable (slightly better) to the performance of the EMP indexes obtained in Eichengreen Rose and Wyplosz (1994) and Klassen and Jager (2011).

Polyethylene glycol 8000+ citrate salts aqueous two-phase systems: Relative hydrophobicity of the equilibrium phases

The Gibbs free energy of transfer of a methylene group, G*(CH2), is reported as a measure of the relative hydrophobicity of the equilibrium phases. Furthermore, G*(CH2) is a characteristic parameter of each tie-line, and for that reason can be used for comparing different tie-lines of a given aqueous two-phase system (ATPS) or even to establish comparisons among different ATPSs. In this work, the partition coefficients of a series of four dinitrophenylated-amino acids were experimentally determined, at 23 °C, in five different tie-lines of PEG8000(sodium or potassium) citrate ATPSs. G*(CH2) values were calculated from the partition coefficients and used to evaluate the relative hydrophobicity of the equilibrium phases. PEG8000potassium citrate ATPSs presented larger relative hydrophobicity than PEG8000sodium citrate ATPSs. Furthermore, the results obtained indicated that the PEG-rich phase (top phase) has higher affinity to participate in hydrophobic hydration interactions than the salt-rich phase (bottom phase).