Analytical approach to quantile estimation in regional frequency analysis based on fuzzy framework

Regional frequency analysis is widely used for estimating quantiles of hydrological extreme events at sparsely gauged/ungauged target sites in river basins. It involves identification of a region (group of watersheds) resembling watershed of the target site, and use of information pooled from the region to estimate quantile for the target site. In the analysis, watershed of the target site is assumed to completely resemble watersheds in the identified region in terms of mechanism underlying generation of extreme event. In reality, it is rare to find watersheds that completely resemble each other. Fuzzy clustering approach can account for partial resemblance of watersheds and yield region(s) for the target site. Formation of regions and quantile estimation requires discerning information from fuzzy-membership matrix obtained based on the approach. Practitioners often defuzzify the matrix to form disjoint clusters (regions) and use them as the basis for quantile estimation. The defuzzification approach (DFA) results in loss of information discerned on partial resemblance of watersheds. The lost information cannot be utilized in quantile estimation, owing to which the estimates could have significant error. To avert the loss of information, a threshold strategy (TS) was considered in some prior studies. In this study, it is analytically shown that the strategy results in under-prediction of quantiles. To address this, a mathematical approach is proposed in this study and its effectiveness in estimating flood quantiles relative to DFA and TS is demonstrated through Monte-Carlo simulation experiments and case study on Mid-Atlantic water resources region, USA. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Maximum magnitude estimation considering the regional rupture character

The main objective of the paper is to develop a new method to estimate the maximum magnitude (M (max)) considering the regional rupture character. The proposed method has been explained in detail and examined for both intraplate and active regions. Seismotectonic data has been collected for both the regions, and seismic study area (SSA) map was generated for radii of 150, 300, and 500 km. The regional rupture character was established by considering percentage fault rupture (PFR), which is the ratio of subsurface rupture length (RLD) to total fault length (TFL). PFR is used to arrive RLD and is further used for the estimation of maximum magnitude for each seismic source. Maximum magnitude for both the regions was estimated and compared with the existing methods for determining M (max) values. The proposed method gives similar M (max) value irrespective of SSA radius and seismicity. Further seismicity parameters such as magnitude of completeness (M (c) ), ``a'' and ``aEuro parts per thousand b `` parameters and maximum observed magnitude (M (max) (obs) ) were determined for each SSA and used to estimate M (max) by considering all the existing methods. It is observed from the study that existing deterministic and probabilistic M (max) estimation methods are sensitive to SSA radius, M (c) , a and b parameters and M (max) (obs) values. However, M (max) determined from the proposed method is a function of rupture character instead of the seismicity parameters. It was also observed that intraplate region has less PFR when compared to active seismic region.

Perceptions of priority issues in the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems in India

We report on the results of a country-wide survey of people's perceptions of issues relating to the conservation of biodiversity and ecosystems in India. Our survey, mainly conducted online, yielded 572 respondents, mostly among educated, urban and sub-urban citizens interested in ecological and environmental issues. 3160 ``raw'' questions generated by the survey were iteratively processed by a group of ecologists, environmental and conservation scientists to produce the primary result of this study: a summarized list of 152 priority questions for the conservation of India's biodiversity and ecosystems, which range across 17 broad thematic classes. Of these, three thematic classes-''Policy and Governance'', ``Biodiversity and Endangered Species'' and ``Protection and Conservation''-accounted for the largest number of questions. A comparative analysis of the results of this study with those from similar studies in other regions brought out interesting regional differences in the thematic classes of questions that were emphasized and suggest that local context plays a large role in determining emergent themes. We believe that the ready list of priority issues generated by this study can be a useful guiding framework for conservation practitioners, researchers, citizens, policy makers and funders to focus their resources and efforts in India's conservation research, action and funding landscape. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional hydrological impacts of climate change: implications for water management in India

Climate change is most likely to introduce an additional stress to already stressed water systems in developing countries. Climate change is inherently linked with the hydrological cycle and is expected to cause significant alterations in regional water resources systems necessitating measures for adaptation and mitigation. Increasing temperatures, for example, are likely to change precipitation patterns resulting in alterations of regional water availability, evapotranspirative water demand of crops and vegetation, extremes of floods and droughts, and water quality. A comprehensive assessment of regional hydrological impacts of climate change is thus necessary. Global climate model simulations provide future projections of the climate system taking into consideration changes in external forcings, such as atmospheric carbon-dioxide and aerosols, especially those resulting from anthropogenic emissions. However, such simulations are typically run at a coarse scale, and are not equipped to reproduce regional hydrological processes. This paper summarizes recent research on the assessment of climate change impacts on regional hydrology, addressing the scale and physical processes mismatch issues. Particular attention is given to changes in water availability, irrigation demands and water quality. This paper also includes description of the methodologies developed to address uncertainties in the projections resulting from incomplete knowledge about future evolution of the human-induced emissions and from using multiple climate models. Approaches for investigating possible causes of historically observed changes in regional hydrological variables are also discussed. Illustrations of all the above-mentioned methods are provided for Indian regions with a view to specifically aiding water management in India.

Hydrological importance of sacred forest fragments in Central Western Ghats of India

Sacred groves are patches of forests of special spiritual significance to humans, offering also a diverse range of ecological and environmental services. We have attempted here to understand the local hydrological dynamics of a sacred forest, in terms of the benefits the village community derive, in central Western Ghats region of India. A comparative assessment has been made between two small watersheds in terms of their landscape structure (woody species composition) with soil water properties and availability of water in the respective downstream villages. The result shows that, sacred site with more primeval vegetation has close association with soil moisture in comparison to non-sacred site during dry spell of the year. The higher soil moisture ensures year long availability of water in the downstream village of the sacred site which facilitates farming of commercial crops with higher economic returns to the farmers, unlike the farmers in the other village where they face water crisis during the lean season. The study emphasizes the need for conservation endeavour on sacred groves highlighting its potential for water conservation at local and regional levels.

HYDROMAGNETICS OF ADVECTIVE ACCRETION FLOWS AROUND BLACK HOLES: REMOVAL OF ANGULAR MOMENTUM BY LARGE-SCALE MAGNETIC STRESSES

We show that the removal of angular momentum is possible in the presence of large-scale magnetic stresses in geometrically thick, advective, sub-Keplerian accretion flows around black holes in steady state, in the complete absence of alpha-viscosity. The efficiency of such an angular momentum transfer could be equivalent to that of alpha-viscosity with alpha = 0.01-0.08. Nevertheless, the required field is well below its equipartition value, leading to a magnetically stable disk flow. This is essentially important in order to describe the hard spectral state of the sources when the flow is non/sub-Keplerian. We show in our simpler 1.5 dimensional, vertically averaged disk model that the larger the vertical-gradient of the azimuthal component of the magnetic field is, the stronger the rate of angular momentum transfer becomes, which in turn may lead to a faster rate of outflowing matter. Finding efficient angular momentum transfer in black hole disks via magnetic stresses alone, is very interesting when the generic origin of alpha-viscosity is still being explored.

Recent freshwater Ostracoda and Bivalvia from Indo-Nepal border (Tethys Himalaya): Ecological implications

We report for the first time Recent ostracods and bivalves from Central Tethys Himalaya, collected from Changru village, which is situated in the Tinker valley of northwestern Nepal near the Indo-Nepal border. The specimens were collected from the surface sediments of a small pond, shaped by a small tributary of the glacier fed Tinker River. The ostracod species belonging to the families Ilyocyprididae, Cyprididae and Candonidae and one bivalve (Pisidium sp., Family Pisidiidae) have been identified. Psychrodromus olivaccus and Potamocypris villosa are being reported for the first time from India and Nepal. Several broken and unidentifiable gyrogonites of charophyta were also recovered. The ostracod sample, as a whole, points to a shallow freshwater lake environment influenced by slowly running carbonate rich waters under cool temperatures, low mineralization and sparse vegetation. This is in accordance with the occurrence of Pisidium, which is commonly associated with ostracods in the freshwater lakes and streams. The ostracod fauna shows affinity with the fossil and extant forms recovered from the Higher and Tethys Himalaya of NW India. This opens a new opportunity for studying ostracods in the Indian Central Himalaya - a region which otherwise has been ignored until now.

Modelling the influence of land-use changes on biophysical and biochemical interactions at regional and global scales

Land-use changes since the start of the industrial era account for nearly one-third of the cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions. In addition to the greenhouse effect of CO2 emissions, changes in land use also affect climate via changes in surface physical properties such as albedo, evapotranspiration and roughness length. Recent modelling studies suggest that these biophysical components may be comparable with biochemical effects. In regard to climate change, the effects of these two distinct processes may counterbalance one another both regionally and, possibly, globally. In this article, through hypothetical large-scale deforestation simulations using a global climate model, we contrast the implications of afforestation on ameliorating or enhancing anthropogenic contributions from previously converted (agricultural) land surfaces. Based on our review of past studies on this subject, we conclude that the sum of both biophysical and biochemical effects should be assessed when large-scale afforestation is used for countering global warming, and the net effect on global mean temperature change depends on the location of deforestation/afforestation. Further, although biochemical effects trigger global climate change, biophysical effects often cause strong local and regional climate change. The implication of the biophysical effects for adaptation and mitigation of climate change in agriculture and agroforestry sectors is discussed. center dot Land-use changes affect global and regional climates through both biochemical and biophysical process. center dot Climate effect from biophysical process depends on the location of land-use change. center dot Climate mitigation strategies such as afforestation/reforestation should consider the net effect of biochemical and biophysical processes for effective mitigation. center dot Climate-smart agriculture could use bio-geoengineering techniques that consider plant biophysical characteristics such as reflectivity and water use efficiency.

Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas

Despite high vulnerability, the impact of climate change on Himalayan ecosystem has not been properly investigated, primarily due to the inadequacy of observed data and the complex topography. In this study, we mapped the current vegetation distribution in Kashmir Himalayas from NOAA AVHRR and projected it under A1B SRES, RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 climate scenarios using the vegetation dynamics model-IBIS at a spatial resolution of 0.5A degrees. The distribution of vegetation under the changing climate was simulated for the 21st century. Climate change projections from the PRECIS experiment using the HADRM3 model, for the Kashmir region, were validated using the observed climate data from two observatories. Both the observed as well as the projected climate data showed statistically significant trends. IBIS was validated for Kashmir Himalayas by comparing the simulated vegetation distribution with the observed distribution. The baseline simulated scenario of vegetation (1960-1990), showed 87.15 % agreement with the observed vegetation distribution, thereby increasing the credibility of the projected vegetation distribution under the changing climate over the region. According to the model projections, grasslands and tropical deciduous forests in the region would be severely affected while as savannah, shrubland, temperate evergreen broadleaf forest, boreal evergreen forest and mixed forest types would colonize the area currently under the cold desert/rock/ice land cover types. The model predicted that a substantial area of land, presently under the permanent snow and ice cover, would disappear by the end of the century which might severely impact stream flows, agriculture productivity and biodiversity in the region.

Primates, Provisioning and Plants: Impacts of Human Cultural Behaviours on Primate Ecological Functions

Human provisioning of wildlife with food is a widespread global practice that occurs in multiple socio-cultural circumstances. Provisioning may indirectly alter ecosystem functioning through changes in the eco-ethology of animals, but few studies have quantified this aspect. Provisioning of primates by humans is known to impact their activity budgets, diets and ranging patterns. Primates are also keystone species in tropical forests through their role as seed dispersers; yet there is no information on how provisioning might affect primate ecological functions. The rhesus macaque is a major human-commensal species but is also an important seed disperser in the wild. In this study, we investigated the potential impacts of provisioning on the role of rhesus macaques as seed dispersers in the Buxa Tiger Reserve, India. We studied a troop of macaques which were provisioned for a part of the year and were dependent on natural resources for the rest. We observed feeding behaviour, seed handling techniques and ranging patterns of the macaques and monitored availability of wild fruits. Irrespective of fruit availability, frugivory and seed dispersal activities decreased when the macaques were provisioned. Provisioned macaques also had shortened daily ranges implying shorter dispersal distances. Finally, during provisioning periods, seeds were deposited on tarmac roads that were unconducive for germination. Provisioning promotes human-primate conflict, as commensal primates are often involved in aggressive encounters with humans over resources, leading to negative consequences for both parties involved. Preventing or curbing provisioning is not an easy task as feeding wild animals is a socio-cultural tradition across much of South and South-East Asia, including India. We recommend the initiation of literacy programmes that educate lay citizens about the ill-effects of provisioning and strongly caution them against the practice.

Evaluation of the Index-Flood Approach Related Regional Frequency Analysis Procedures

Index-flood related regional frequency analysis (RFA) procedures are in use by hydrologists to estimate design quantiles of hydrological extreme events at data sparse/ungauged locations in river basins. There is a dearth of attempts to establish which among those procedures is better for RFA in the L-moment framework. This paper evaluates the performance of the conventional index flood (CIF), the logarithmic index flood (LIF), and two variants of the population index flood (PIF) procedures in estimating flood quantiles for ungauged locations by Monte Carlo simulation experiments and a case study on watersheds in Indiana in the U.S. To evaluate the PIF procedure, L-moment formulations are developed for implementing the procedure in situations where the regional frequency distribution (RFD) is the generalized logistic (GLO), generalized Pareto (GPA), generalized normal (GNO) or Pearson type III (PE3), as those formulations are unavailable. Results indicate that one of the variants of the PIF procedure, which utilizes the regional information on the first two L-moments is more effective than the CIF and LIF procedures. The improvement in quantile estimation using the variant of PIF procedure as compared with the CIF procedure is significant when the RFD is a generalized extreme value, GLO, GNO, or PE3, and marginal when it is GPA. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Fingerprinting environmental conditions and related stress using stable isotopic composition of rice (Oryza sativa L.) grain organic matter

Sea level rise (SLR) is a primary factor responsible for inundation of low-lying coastal regions across the world, which in turn governs the agricultural productivity. In this study, rice (Oryza sativa L.) cultivated seasonally in the Kuttanad Wetland, a SLR prone region on the southwest coast of India, were analysed for oxygen, hydrogen and carbon isotopic ratios (delta O-18, delta H-2 and delta C-13) to distinguish the seasonal environmental conditions prevalent during rice cultivation. The region receives high rainfall during the wet season which promotes large supply of fresh water to the local water bodies via the rivers. In contrast, during the dry season reduced river discharge favours sea water incursion which adversely affects the rice cultivation. The water for rice cultivation is derived from regional water bodies that are characterised by seasonal salinity variation which co-varies with the delta O-18 and delta H-2 values. Rice cultivated during the wet and the dry season bears the isotopic imprints of this water. We explored the utility of a mechanistic model to quantify the contribution of two prominent factors, namely relative humidity and source water composition in governing the seasonal variation in oxygen isotopic composition of rice grain OM. delta C-13 values of rice grain OM were used to deduce the stress level by estimating the intrinsic water use efficiency (WUEi) of the crop during the two seasons. 1.3 times higher WUE, was exhibited by the same genotype during the dry season. The approach can be extended to other low lying coastal agro-ecosystems to infer the growth conditions of cultivated crops and can further be utilised for retrieving paleo-environmental information from well preserved archaeological plant remains. (c) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Regional research priorities in brain and nervous system disorders

The characteristics of neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders in low-and middle-income countries are unique and the burden that they have will be different from country to country. Many of the differences are explained by the wide variation in population demographics and size, poverty, conflict, culture, land area and quality, and genetics. Neurological, psychiatric, developmental and substance-use disorders that result from, or are worsened by, a lack of adequate nutrition and infectious disease still afflict much of sub-Saharan Africa, although disorders related to increasing longevity, such as stroke, are on the rise. In the Middle East and North Africa, major depressive disorders and post-traumatic stress disorder are a primary concern because of the conflict-ridden environment. Consanguinity is a serious concern that leads to the high prevalence of recessive disorders in the Middle East and North Africa and possibly other regions. The burden of these disorders in Latin American and Asian countries largely surrounds stroke and vascular disease, dementia and lifestyle factors that are influenced by genetics. Although much knowledge has been gained over the past 10 years, the epidemiology of the conditions in low-and middle-income countries still needs more research. Prevention and treatments could be better informed with more longitudinal studies of risk factors. Challenges and opportunities for ameliorating nervous-system disorders can benefit from both local and regional research collaborations. The lack of resources and infrastructure for health-care and related research, both in terms of personnel and equipment, along with the stigma associated with the physical or behavioural manifestations of some disorders have hampered progress in understanding the disease burden and improving brain health. Individual countries, and regions within countries, have specific needs in terms of research priorities.

Numerical study of driven flows of shear thinning viscoelastic fluids in rectangular cavities

In this work, we present a numerical study of flow of shear thinning viscoelastic fluids in rectangular lid driven cavities for a wide range of aspect ratios (depth to width ratio) varying from 1/16 to 4. In particular, the effect of elasticity, inertia, model parameters and polymer concentration on flow features in rectangular driven cavity has been studied for two shear thinning viscoelastic fluids, namely, Giesekus and linear PTT. We perform numerical simulations using the symmetric square root representation of the conformation tensor to stabilize the numerical scheme against the high Weissenberg number problem. The variation in flow structures associated with merging and splitting of elongated vortices in shallow cavities and coalescence of corner eddies to yield a second primary vortex in deep cavities with respect to the variation in flow parameters is discussed. We discuss the effect of the dominant eigenvalues and the corresponding eigenvectors on the location of the primary eddy in the cavity. We also demonstrate, by performing numerical simulations for shallow and deep cavities, that where the Deborah number (based on convective time scale) characterizes the elastic behaviour of the fluid in deep cavities, Weissenberg number (based on shear rate) should be used for shallow cavities. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Repeat-Associated Fission Yeast-Like Regional Centromeres in the Ascomycetous Budding Yeast Candida tropicalis

The centromere, on which kinetochore proteins assemble, ensures precise chromosome segregation. Centromeres are largely specified by the histone H3 variant CENP-A (also known as Cse4 in yeasts). Structurally, centromere DNA sequences are highly diverse in nature. However, the evolutionary consequence of these structural diversities on de novo CENP-A chromatin formation remains elusive. Here, we report the identification of centromeres, as the binding sites of four evolutionarily conserved kinetochore proteins, in the human pathogenic budding yeast Candida tropicalis. Each of the seven centromeres comprises a 2 to 5 kb non-repetitive mid core flanked by 2 to 5 kb inverted repeats. The repeat-associated centromeres of C. tropicalis all share a high degree of sequence conservation with each other and are strikingly diverged from the unique and mostly non-repetitive centromeres of related Candida species-Candida albicans, Candida dubliniensis, and Candida lusitaniae. Using a plasmid-based assay, we further demonstrate that pericentric inverted repeats and the underlying DNA sequence provide a structural determinant in CENP-A recruitment in C. tropicalis, as opposed to epigenetically regulated CENP-A loading at centromeres in C. albicans. Thus, the centromere structure and its influence on de novo CENP-A recruitment has been significantly rewired in closely related Candida species. Strikingly, the centromere structural properties along with role of pericentric repeats in de novo CENP-A loading in C. tropicalis are more reminiscent to those of the distantly related fission yeast Schizosaccharomyces pombe. Taken together, we demonstrate, for the first time, fission yeast-like repeat-associated centromeres in an ascomycetous budding yeast.