Modelos Mixtos-Aditivos Generalizados para el Estudio de Fenómenos Biológicos y Sociales Descriptos por Datos Agregados y/o Longitudinales. Generalized Mixed Additive Models for the Study of Biological and Social Phenomenons from Longitudinal and/or Aggregated Data.

Este proyecto propone extender y generalizar los procesos de estimación e inferencia de modelos aditivos generalizados multivariados para variables aleatorias no gaussianas, que describen comportamientos de fenómenos biológicos y sociales y cuyas representaciones originan series longitudinales y datos agregados (clusters). Se genera teniendo como objeto para las aplicaciones inmediatas, el desarrollo de metodología de modelación para la comprensión de procesos biológicos, ambientales y sociales de las áreas de Salud y las Ciencias Sociales, la condicionan la presencia de fenómenos específicos, como el de las enfermedades.Es así que el plan que se propone intenta estrechar la relación entre la Matemática Aplicada, desde un enfoque bajo incertidumbre y las Ciencias Biológicas y Sociales, en general, generando nuevas herramientas para poder analizar y explicar muchos problemas sobre los cuales tienen cada vez mas información experimental y/o observacional.Se propone, en forma secuencial, comenzando por variables aleatorias discretas (Yi, con función de varianza menor que una potencia par del valor esperado E(Y)) generar una clase unificada de modelos aditivos (paramétricos y no paramétricos) generalizados, la cual contenga como casos particulares a los modelos lineales generalizados, no lineales generalizados, los aditivos generalizados, los de media marginales generalizados (enfoques GEE1 -Liang y Zeger, 1986- y GEE2 -Zhao y Prentice, 1990; Zeger y Qaqish, 1992; Yan y Fine, 2004), iniciando una conexión con los modelos lineales mixtos generalizados para variables latentes (GLLAMM, Skrondal y Rabe-Hesketh, 2004), partiendo de estructuras de datos correlacionados. Esto permitirá definir distribuciones condicionales de las respuestas, dadas las covariables y las variables latentes y estimar ecuaciones estructurales para las VL, incluyendo regresiones de VL sobre las covariables y regresiones de VL sobre otras VL y modelos específicos para considerar jerarquías de variación ya reconocidas. Cómo definir modelos que consideren estructuras espaciales o temporales, de manera tal que permitan la presencia de factores jerárquicos, fijos o aleatorios, medidos con error como es el caso de las situaciones que se presentan en las Ciencias Sociales y en Epidemiología, es un desafío a nivel estadístico. Se proyecta esa forma secuencial para la construcción de metodología tanto de estimación como de inferencia, comenzando con variables aleatorias Poisson y Bernoulli, incluyendo los existentes MLG, hasta los actuales modelos generalizados jerárquicos, conextando con los GLLAMM, partiendo de estructuras de datos correlacionados. Esta familia de modelos se generará para estructuras de variables/vectores, covariables y componentes aleatorios jerárquicos que describan fenómenos de las Ciencias Sociales y la Epidemiología.

A comparative study of the physical, chemical and microbiological status of soils, as influenced by conventional and reduced tillage

Historically, shifts to reduced and no-tillage management for production of crops were fostered by needs to decrease soil erosion and loss of organic matter, reduce fuel and labour costs and conserve soil water, as compared with conventional fallow tillage management. Recent interest in maintaining soil quality has been stimulated by a renewed awareness of the importance of soil condition to both the sustainability of agricultural production systems and environmental quality (Doran and Parkin, 1996). The aim of this project was to determine the impact on the physical, chemical and microbiological status of the soil of conventional and reduced tillage. It has been suggested that the reduced soil disturbance associated with the tine cultivator improves soil structure, increases nutrient content in the top 10cm of soil, increases microbial activity and improves physical characteristics. From this study it was determined that the environmental benefits linked to reduced tillage in literature, did not develop in the first two years of this programmes implementation. The results of this study determined that soil nutrients did not increase in concentration in the top 10 cm of soil under reduced cultivation. The only exception was exchangeable potassium. As potassium is not a mobile nutrient its movement is dependent on soil disturbance, therefore under reduced cultivation its concentration was allowed to accumulate in the upper horizon of the soil profile. Microbial activity was greater in the conventionally tilled treatments, as determined by total aerobic bacterial numbers. This could be due to the increased rates of soil aeration in this treatment. Numbers of aerobic bacteria were greater in the conventional tillage treatments at both incubation temperatures of 22 and 32° C. The physical characteristics of the soil determined, indicate that below the depth of soil cultivation, cone penetration resistance increases. Therefore the reduced cultivation treatments would be more prone to soil compaction, higher in the soil profile.

Data mining with graphical models

Data Mining, Learning from data, graphical models, possibility theory

Data-driven system identification via evolutionary retrieval of Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy models

Systemidentification, evolutionary automatic, data-driven model, fuzzy Takagi-Sugeno grammar, genotype interpretability, toxicity-prediction

Models and methods for supporting lot sizing decisions in product recovery systems

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Wirtschaftswiss., Diss., 2011

Approximations of the Fisher information for the construction of efficient experimental designs in nonlinear mixed effects models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2012

Experimental design for mixed models with application to population pharmacokinetic studies

experimental design, mixed model, random coefficient regression model, population pharmacokinetics, approximate design

Reduced Progression of Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy with Routine Use of Induction Therapy with Basiliximab

AbstractIntroduction:Cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV) is a major limitation for long-term survival of patients undergoing heart transplantation (HT). Some immunosuppressants can reduce the risk of CAV.Objectives:The primary objective was to evaluate the variation in the volumetric growth of the intimal layer measured by intracoronary ultrasound (IVUS) after 1 year in patients who received basiliximab compared with that in a control group.Methods:Thirteen patients treated at a single center between 2007 and 2009 were analyzed retrospectively. Evaluations were performed with IVUS, measuring the volume of a coronary segment within the first 30 days and 1 year after HT. Vasculopathy was characterized by the volume of the intima of the vessel.Results:Thirteen patients included (7 in the basiliximab group and 6 in the control group). On IVUS assessment, the control group was found to have greater vessel volume (120–185.43 mm3 vs. 127.77–131.32 mm3; p = 0.051). Intimal layer growth (i.e., CAV) was also higher in the control group (27.30–49.15 mm3 [∆80%] vs. 20.23–26.69 mm3[∆33%]; p = 0.015). Univariate regression analysis revealed that plaque volume and prior atherosclerosis of the donor were not related to intima growth (r = 0.15, p = 0.96), whereas positive remodeling was directly proportional to the volumetric growth of the intima (r = 0.85, p < 0.001).Conclusion:Routine induction therapy with basiliximab was associated with reduced growth of the intima of the vessel during the first year after HT.

Development and Validation of Predictive Models of Cardiac Mortality and Transplantation in Resynchronization Therapy

AbstractBackground:30-40% of cardiac resynchronization therapy cases do not achieve favorable outcomes.Objective:This study aimed to develop predictive models for the combined endpoint of cardiac death and transplantation (Tx) at different stages of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT).Methods:Prospective observational study of 116 patients aged 64.8 ± 11.1 years, 68.1% of whom had functional class (FC) III and 31.9% had ambulatory class IV. Clinical, electrocardiographic and echocardiographic variables were assessed by using Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.Results:The cardiac mortality/Tx rate was 16.3% during the follow-up period of 34.0 ± 17.9 months. Prior to implantation, right ventricular dysfunction (RVD), ejection fraction < 25% and use of high doses of diuretics (HDD) increased the risk of cardiac death and Tx by 3.9-, 4.8-, and 5.9-fold, respectively. In the first year after CRT, RVD, HDD and hospitalization due to congestive heart failure increased the risk of death at hazard ratios of 3.5, 5.3, and 12.5, respectively. In the second year after CRT, RVD and FC III/IV were significant risk factors of mortality in the multivariate Cox model. The accuracy rates of the models were 84.6% at preimplantation, 93% in the first year after CRT, and 90.5% in the second year after CRT. The models were validated by bootstrapping.Conclusion:We developed predictive models of cardiac death and Tx at different stages of CRT based on the analysis of simple and easily obtainable clinical and echocardiographic variables. The models showed good accuracy and adjustment, were validated internally, and are useful in the selection, monitoring and counseling of patients indicated for CRT.

Optimal designs for mixed effects poisson regression models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2010

Reduced model for flow simulation in the burner region of lime shaft kilns

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Verfahrens- und Systemtechnik, Diss., 2010

Conversive Hidden non-Markovian models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Informatik, Diss., 2012

Analysis and numerical investigation of dynamic models for liquid chromatography

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2013

Optimal designs for multivariate linear models

Magdeburg, Univ., Fak. für Mathematik, Diss., 2013