The long-run properties of a dynamic Mirrlees' model with aggregate shocks

Nós abordamos a existência de distribuições estacionárias de promessas de utilidade em um modelo Mirrlees dinâmico quando o governo tem record keeping imperfeito e a economia é sujeita a choques agregados. Quando esses choques são iid, provamos a existência de um estado estacionário não degenerado e caracterizamos parcialmente as alocações estacionárias. Mostramos que a proporção do consumo agregado é invariante ao estado agregado. Quando os choques agregados apresentam persistência, porém, alocações eficientes apresentam dependência da história de choques e, em geral, uma distribuição invariante não existe.

Forecasting Brazilian inflation by its aggregate and disaggregated data: a test of predictive power by forecast horizon

This work aims to compare the forecast efficiency of different types of methodologies applied to Brazilian Consumer inflation (IPCA). We will compare forecasting models using disaggregated and aggregated data over twelve months ahead. The disaggregated models were estimated by SARIMA and will have different levels of disaggregation. Aggregated models will be estimated by time series techniques such as SARIMA, state-space structural models and Markov-switching. The forecasting accuracy comparison will be made by the selection model procedure known as Model Confidence Set and by Diebold-Mariano procedure. We were able to find evidence of forecast accuracy gains in models using more disaggregated data

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

The objective of this paper is to test for optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level (representative consumer) taking into account popular deviations from the canonical CRRA utility model rule of thumb and habit. First, we show that rule-of-thumb behavior in consumption is observational equivalent to behavior obtained by the optimizing model of King, Plosser and Rebelo (Journal of Monetary Economics, 1988), casting doubt on how reliable standard rule-of-thumb tests are. Second, although Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) have criticized the linearization and testing of euler equations for consumption, we provide a deeper critique directly applicable to current rule-of-thumb tests. Third, we show that there is no reason why return aggregation cannot be performed in the nonlinear setting of the Asset-Pricing Equation, since the latter is a linear function of individual returns. Fourth, aggregation of the nonlinear euler equation forms the basis of a novel test of deviations from the canonical CRRA model of consumption in the presence of rule-of-thumb and habit behavior. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM, with encouraging results vis-a-vis the optimality of consumption decisions. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Empirical-test results show that we can still rely on the canonical CRRA model so prevalent in macroeconomics: out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically signi cant at the 5% level only twice, and the habit ƴ parameter to be statistically signi cant on four occasions. The main message of this paper is that proper return aggregation is critical to study intertemporal substitution in a representative-agent framework. In this case, we fi nd little evidence of lack of optimality in consumption decisions, and deviations of the CRRA utility model along the lines of rule-of-thumb behavior and habit in preferences represent the exception, not the rule.

Collateral, Intermediated Lending, and Aggregate Productivity

Neste trabalho busca-se compreender como que restrições a diferentes tipos de crédito - doméstico e internacional - afetam a dinâmica de uma economia, especialmente com relação a sua Produtividade Total dos Fatores (PTF). Para ajudar no entendimento dessa questão e assuntos relacionados, propomos um simples modelo de economia aberta. Nesse contexto, empreendedores domésticos possuem produtividades heterogêneas, o que implica que a distribuição de riqueza entre indivíduos é essencial para a determinação da produtividade agregada da economia. Além disso, o ambiente de comprometimento limitado obriga os tomadores de empréstimo a dispor de colateral para contrair dívidas. Por hipótese, dívida doméstica e externa requerem diferentes quantidades de colateral. O modelo gera uma dinâmica macroeconômica rica após mudanças na taxa de juros internacional e restrições a crédito. Mais especificamente, um alívio na restrição doméstica causa um aumento da PTF, enquanto a mesma variação na restrição internacional tem o efeito contrário.

Testing consumption optimality using aggregate data

This paper tests the optimality of consumption decisions at the aggregate level taking into account popular deviations from the canonical constant-relative-risk-aversion (CRRA) utility function model-rule of thumb and habit. First, based on the critique in Carroll (2001) and Weber (2002) of the linearization and testing strategies using euler equations for consumption, we provide extensive empirical evidence of their inappropriateness - a drawback for standard rule- of-thumb tests. Second, we propose a novel approach to test for consumption optimality in this context: nonlinear estimation coupled with return aggregation, where rule-of-thumb behavior and habit are special cases of an all encompassing model. We estimated 48 euler equations using GMM. At the 5% level, we only rejected optimality twice out of 48 times. Moreover, out of 24 regressions, we found the rule-of-thumb parameter to be statistically significant only twice. Hence, lack of optimality in consumption decisions represent the exception, not the rule. Finally, we found the habit parameter to be statistically significant on four occasions out of 24.

Aggregate vs disaggregate data analysis: a paradox in the estimation of money demand function of Japan under the low interest rate policy

We investigate the issue of whether there was a stable money demand function for Japan in 1990's using both aggregate and disaggregate time series data. The aggregate data appears to support the contention that there was no stable money demand function. The disaggregate data shows that there was a stable money demand function. Neither was there any indication of the presence of liquidity trapo Possible sources of discrepancy are explored and the diametrically opposite results between the aggregate and disaggregate analysis are attributed to the neglected heterogeneity among micro units. We also conduct simulation analysis to show that when heterogeneity among micro units is present. The prediction of aggregate outcomes, using aggregate data is less accurate than the prediction based on micro equations. Moreover. policy evaluation based on aggregate data can be grossly misleading.

Estudo de revestimentos inorgânicos com inibidor de corrosão aplicado na superfície do concreto

The corrosive phenomenon on reinforced concrete structures is one of the most founded pathologies on the coastal area. With the objective to prevent the process development, or even, retard its beginning, it was studied the application of inorganic covering over concrete surfaces, after its cure, as well as, evaluate the efficiency of the covering applied on the concrete in reducing its porosity of concrete preventing the entrance of aggressive agents to preserve the integrity of the existing armor inside it, comparing the result obtained with the body-of-proof reference, that didn´t receive covering protection. On the concrete production it was used Portland Cement CP II 32, coarse aggregate, fine aggregate and water from the local distributive. Two types of covering were used, one resin based of silicon and solvent and other white cement based, selected sands and acrylic resin. The concrete mixture adopted was 1:1,5:2,5 (cement, fine aggregate, coarse aggregate) and 0.50 water/cement ratio. With the concrete on fresh state was made the experiment test to determinate the workability. On the hardened state was made the concrete resistance experiment, absorption of water and electrochemical experiments, through polarization curves. Also was held optical microscopy and Scanning Electron Microscopy experiments to analyze the layer of the covering applied to the concrete surface and the interface between the concrete and the layer. The obtained results shows that the covering applied to the concrete surface didn´t affect the resistance towards compression. On the absorption of water occurred a diminution of the percentage absorbed, improving the concrete development by making it more impermeable towards the entrance of aggressive agents. The electrochemical experiment results confirmed the water absorption results; the body-of-proof covered presented larger protection towards the development of corrosives process and retarded the evolution of the corrosive phenomenon

Concreto celular polimérico: influência na adição de resíduo de poliéster insaturado termofixo

This work addresses the production of lightweight concrete building elements, such as plates, prefabricated slabs for pre-molded and panels of fencing, presenting a singular concrete: the Lightweight Concrete, with special properties such low density and good strength, by means of the joint use of industrial waste of thermosetting unsaturated polyesters and biodegradable foaming agent, named Polymeric Lightweight Concrete. This study covered various features of the materials used in the composition of the Polymeric Lightweight Concrete, using a planning of factorial design 23, aiming at studying of the strength, production, dosage processes, characterization of mechanical properties and microstructural analysis of the transition zone between the light artificial aggregate and the matrix of cement. The results of the mechanical strength tests were analyzed using a computational statistics tool (Statistica software) to understand the behavior and obtain the ideal quantity of each material used in the formula of the Polymeric Lightweight Concrete. The definition of the ideal formula has the purpose of obtaining a material with the lowest possible dry density and resistance to compression in accordance with NBR 12.646/92 (≥ 2.5 MPa after 28 days). In the microstructural characterization by scanning electron microscopy it was observed an influence of the materials in the process of cement hydration, showing good interaction between the wrinkled face of the residue of unsaturated polyesters thermosetting and putty and, consequently, the final strength. The attaining of an ideal formula, given the Brazilian standards, the experimental results obtained in the characterization and comparison of these results with conventional materials, confirmed that the developed Polymeric Lightweight Concrete is suitable for the production of building elements that are advantageous for construction

O efeito do tratamento da atapulgita no desenvolvimento de compósito com o polietileno reciclado

The study aimed at the treatment of attapulgite for the development and characterization of composite recycled low density polyethylene - PEBD_rec embedded with natural attapulgite - ATP_NAT, sifted - ATP_PN and attapulgite treated with sulfuric acid - ATP_TR in different compositions (1, 3 and 5%) and compared with the PEBD_rec. The atapulgitas, natural, screened and treated, were characterized by X-ray diffraction (XRD), X-ray fluorescence (XRF), particle size analysis, scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy dispersive spectroscopy (EDS) and determining the area specific surface (BET). The composites were characterized by thermogravimetry (TG), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC), Xray diffraction (XRD), torque rheometry, scanning electron microscopy (SEM) and traction. The composite PEBD_rec / ATP (natural, sieved and treated) were produced by mixing in the molten state in a single screw extruder matrix wire with subsequent reprocessing matrix tape. It was found that the screening of attapulgite not reduce the quantity of quartz and the acid treatment completely extracted dolomite aggregate impurities of the channels attapulgite, and increase their surface area. The addition of attapulgite in PEBD_rec acts as a catalyst, reducing the thermal stability of the polymer. The increased concentration of attapulgite, increases resistance and reduces the elongation at break and modulus of elasticity of the composite PEBD_rec / attapulgite

Estudo da substituição de agregados miúdos naturais por pó de pedra em concreto de cimento portland

The sharp consumption of natural resources by the construction industry has motivated numerous studies concerning the application of waste to replace partially or fully, some materials, such as aggregates, thereby reducing the environmental impact caused by the extraction of sand and crushing process. The application of stone dust from crushing process arising as an aggregate for the production of Portland cement concrete is a viable alternative in view of the high cost of natural sands, in addition to the environmental damage which causes its operation to the environment. The stone dust has reduced cost compared to natural sand because it is produced in the beds of their own quarries, which are usually located close to major urban centers. This study examined the feasibility of using stone dust from the crushing of rock gneisses in the state of Bahia, replacing natural quartz sand. In the development of scientific study was conducted to characterize physical and chemical raw materials applied and molded cylindrical specimens , using as reference values Fck 20, Fck 25 and Fck 30 MPa ( resistance characteristic of the concrete after 28 days) in following compositions stone powder: 10%, 30%, 50 %, 100% and 100% with additive. The specimens were cured and subjected to the tests of compressive strength and water absorption, then the samples were subjected to the tests of X-ray diffraction and scanning electron microscopy. The results obtained showed that the composition with 10% stone powder showed the best results regarding the physical and mechanical tests performed, confirming the reduction in compressive strength and increased water uptake increased as the content of the powder stone in the concrete composition

Avaliação do efeito da adição de resíduo de borracha de pneu e brita calcária na formulação de compósitos cimentíceos

Researches have shown that the introduction of rubber in concrete improves the features of its deformability, as well as contributes to environmental disposal of waste generated in the tire retreading process. Furthermore, there is a high availability of limestone within RN and CE country. Ignorance about this stone, does not allow its wide use as aggregate, leaving, this abundant supply idle. A composite of limestone gravel, with proportions of tire rubber waste which could be used as concrete would be an alternative to concrete for low applications. Therefore, this research aims to evaluate the characteristics of concrete containing limestone gravel and proportions of little aggregate replacement (sand) by tire rubber waste. To this goal, the material components of the concrete were characterized, concrete specimens with limestone gravel were made, from the dash 1.0: 2.5: 3.5, varying the water/cement ratio, and inserting a commercial plasticizer, without a proportion of residue, known as reference. From this, concrete with and without the presence of the additive in the same proportions were chosen, as well as these with the use of granite gravel, for being the most used. Selected the references, to these, replacements of little aggregate (sand) were added replaced by rubber waste from the tire retreading process, treated with 1M NaOH in proportions from 5.0 to 20.0 % by mass, cured and exposed to the semiarid environment. The results indicate the possibility of using limestone gravel in the concrete composition with workability correction using plasticizer. There was a decrease in the mechanical properties of the concrete with increments of waste rubber, but there is an improvement in toughness and deformability of the composite, which makes it interesting for the construction of non-structural concrete floors, as well as, the rubber waste delayed the hardening process, continuing to gain resistance after 28 days

Estudo de inibidores de corrosão em concreto armado, visando a melhoria na sua durabilidade

This thesis has as objective presents a methodology to evaluate the behavior of the corrosion inhibitors sodium nitrite, sodium dichromate and sodium molybdate, as well as your mixture, the corrosion process for the built-in steel in the reinforced concrete, through different techniques electrochemical, as well as the mechanical properties of that concrete non conventional. The addition of the inhibitors was studied in the concrete in the proportions from 0.5 to 3.5 % regarding the cement mass, isolated or in the mixture, with concrete mixture proportions of 1.0:1.5:2.5 (cement, fine aggregate and coarse aggregate), superplasticizers 2.0 % and 0.40 water/cement ratio. In the modified concrete resistance rehearsals they were accomplished to the compression, consistence and the absorption of water, while to analyze the built-in steel in the concrete the rehearsals of polarization curves they were made. They were also execute, rehearsals of corrosion potential and polarization resistance with intention of diagnose the beginning of the corrosion of the armors inserted in body-of-proof submitted to an accelerated exhibition in immersion cycle and drying to the air. It was concluded, that among the studied inhibitors sodium nitrite , in the proportion of 2.0 % in relation to the mass of the cement, presented the best capacity of protection of the steel through all the studied techniques and that the methodology and the monitoring techniques used in this work, they were shown appropriate to evaluate the behavior and the efficiency of the inhibitors

Influência da substituição de areia natural por pó de pedra no comportamento mecânico, microestrutural e eletroquímico de concretos

The construction industry is one of the largest consumers of natural raw materials, and concrete is considered today the most used material wide. This accentuated consumption of natural resources has generated concern with the preservation of the environment, and has motivated various studies related to the use of resid ues, which can partially or entirely substitute, with satisfactory performance, some materials such as the aggregate, and in so doing, decrease the impact on the environment caused by the produced residues. Research has been done to better understand and improve the microstructure of concrete, as well as to understand the mechanism of corrosion in reinforced steel. In this context, this work was developed aiming at discovering the influence of the substitution of natural sand by artificial sand, with rega rd to mechanical resistance, microstructure, and durability. To obtain the electrochemical parameters, an adaptation was made to the galvanostatic electrochemical method to study the corrosion in reinforced steel. Concretes of categories 20 MPa and 40 MPa were produced, containing natural sand, and concretes of the same categories were produced with artificial sand substituting the natural sand, and with the addition of sodium nitrate and sodium chloride. Due to the use of rock dust reject (artificial sand), an evaluation was made of its environmental risk. The results indicate that the concretes of category 20 MPa present a better performance than the concrete made with natural sand, thus making it a viable substitute. For the category 40 MPa, the better performance is from the concrete containing natural sand. The adaptation of the galvanostatic electrochemical technique to the study of the corrosion of reinforced steel within concrete proved to be valid for obtaining electrochemical parameters with a high degree of reliability, considering the number of degrees of freedom

Soil CO2 emission as related to incorporation of sugarcane crop residues and aggregate breaking after rotary tiller

O preparo do solo é um dos processos que aceleram a decomposição da matéria orgânica, transferindo carbono para atmosfera, principalmente na forma de CO2. Neste trabalho, investigou-se o efeito do preparo com enxada rotativa sobre as emissões de CO2 do solo durante 02 semanas após o preparo do solo, incluindo-se a presença de resíduos vegetais sobre a superfície. As emissões foram avaliadas por 15 dias após preparo em 3 parcelas: 1) sem preparo e sem palha superficial (SPs); 2) preparo com enxada rotativa sem a presença de palha na superfície (ERs), e 3) preparo com enxada rotativa com a presença de palha superficial (ERc). As emissões provenientes da ERc foram superiores às demais (0,777 g CO2 m-2 h-1), sendo as menores emissões registradas na parcela SPs (0,414 g CO2 m-2 h-1). As emissões totais indicaram que a diferença de C-CO2 emitida à atmosfera corresponde a 3% do total de carbono adicional presente na palha, na parcela ERc, quando comparado à parcela ERs. O aumento da emissão da parcela SPs para ERs foi acompanhado de uma modificação na distribuição do tamanho de agregados, especialmente aqueles com diâmetro médio inferior a 2 mm. O aumento da emissão da parcela ERs para ERc esteve relacionado a uma diminuição da massa de palha na superfície, com fragmentação e incorporação da mesma no interior do solo. Quando se analisa a correlação linear entre emissão de CO2 versus temperatura e umidade do solo, somente a emissão da ERc foi significativamente correlacionada (p<0,05) à umidade do solo.