Efficient Unit Root Tests of real Exchange Rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

We apply the efficient unit-roots tests of Elliott, Rothenberg, and Stock (1996), and Elliott (1998) to twenty-one real exchange rates using monthly data of the G-7 countries from the post-Bretton Woods floating exchange rate period. Our results indicate that, for eighteen out of the twenty-one real exchange rates, the null hypothesis of a unit root can be rejected at the 10% significance level or better using the Elliot et al (1996) DF-GLS test. The unit-root null hypothesis is also rejected for one additional real exchange rate when we allow for one endogenously determined break in the time series of the real exchange rate as in Perron (1997). In all, we find favorable evidence to support long-run purchasing power parity in nineteen out of twenty-one real exchange rates. Second, we find no strong evidence to suggest that the use of non-U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates tend to produce more favorable result for long-run PPP than the use of U.S. dollar-based real exchange rates as Lothian (1998) has concluded.

Non-Parametric Tests of Real Exchange rates in the Post-Bretton Woods Era

This paper examines the mean-reverting property of real exchange rates. Earlier studies have generally not been able to reject the null hypothesis of a unit-root in real exchange rates, especially for the post-Bretton Woods floating period. The results imply that long-run purchasing power parity does not hold. More recent studies, especially those using panel unit-root tests, have found more favorable results, however. But, Karlsson and Löthgren (2000) and others have recently pointed out several potential pitfalls of panel unit-root tests. Thus, the panel unit-root test results are suggestive, but they are far from conclusive. Moreover, consistent individual country time series evidence that supports long-run purchasing power parity continues to be scarce. In this paper, we test for long memory using Lo's (1991) modified rescaled range test, and the rescaled variance test of Giraitis, Kokoszka, Leipus, and Teyssière (2003). Our testing procedure provides a non-parametric alternative to the parametric tests commonly used in this literature. Our data set consists of monthly observations from April 1973 to April 2001 of the G-7 countries in the OECD. Our two tests find conflicting results when we use U.S. dollar real exchange rates. However, when non-U.S. dollar real exchange rates are used, we find only two cases out of fifteen where the null hypothesis of an unit-root with short-term dependence can be rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis of long-term dependence using the modified rescaled range test, and only one case when using the rescaled variance test. Our results therefore provide a contrast to the recent favorable panel unit-root test results.

Demographics of having a gun in the home in Columbia, SC as reported by women primary care patients

Objectives. To determine demographic correlates of having one or more guns in the household of women primary care patients in the southern USA. ^ Methods. All participants in this cross-sectional study were women aged 18-65 who were insured by either Medicaid or a managed care provider and had ever had an intimate sexual relationship with a male partner that lasted at least three months. Prevalence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated using stratified analyses for having a gun in the home and the following demographic factors: age, race, educational attainment, marital status, employment status, and alcohol/drug use. ^ Results. Twenty six percent of households had at least one gun and 6.5% had 3 or more guns. The following demographic characteristics of women were associated with having a gun in the household: age (>40) (prevalence rate ratio [PRR] = 1.4; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.1–1.8); White race (PRR = 1.89; 95% CI = 1.61–2.27); currently being employed (PRR = 1.72; 95% CI = 1.22–2.44); higher education; and being insured by an HMO (PRR = 1.92; 95% CI = 1.47–2.50). Neither the partner's unemployment nor his substance use was associated with having a gun. While White households were more likely to have a gun, the same correlates of gun ownership held for both White and African-American households; being married or living as married and higher socio-economic status (i.e. HMO insurance and being employed) were strongly correlated with gun in the household. The following were correlated with having multiple guns in the household: White race (p < 0.0001); increased age (p = 0.005); being currently married or living as married (p < 0.0001); and HMO insured status (p < 0.0001). Among those households with at least one gun, White race and married or currently living as married were associated with having 2 or more guns relative to one gun in the household. ^ Conclusions. Currently living with a man and being of higher socio-economic status were strong correlates of household gun ownership among both Whites and African-Americans. Substance use was not associated with household gun ownership. ^

Validation of real time dispersion of Tritium clouds over the Western Mediterranean Basin in different assesments

Real time Tritium concentrations in air coming from an ITER-like reactor as source were coupled the European Centre Medium Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) numerical model with the lagrangian atmospheric dispersion model FLEXPART. This tool ECMWF/FLEXPART was analyzed in normal operating conditions in the Western Mediterranean Basin during 45 days at summer 2010. From comparison with NORMTRI plumes over Western Mediterranean Basin the real time results have demonstrated an overestimation of the corresponding climatologically sequence Tritium concentrations in air outputs, at several distances from the reactor. For these purpose two clouds development patterns were established. The first one was following a cyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean Sea and the second one was based in the cloud delivered over the Interior of the Iberian Peninsula by another stabilized circulation corresponding to a High. One of the important remaining activities defined then, was the tool qualification. The aim of this paper is to present the ECMWF/FLEXPART products confronted with Tritium concentration in air data. For this purpose a database to develop and validate ECMWF/FLEXPART tritium in both assessments has been selected from a NORMTRI run. Similarities and differences, underestimation and overestimation with NORMTRI will allowfor refinement in some features of ECMWF/FLEXPART

A new generation of real-time systems in the JET tokamak

Recently a new recipe for developing and deploying real-time systems has become increasingly adopted in the JET tokamak. Powered by the advent of x86 multi-core technology and the reliability of the JET’s well established Real-Time Data Network (RTDN) to handle all real-time I/O, an official Linux vanilla kernel has been demonstrated to be able to provide realtime performance to user-space applications that are required to meet stringent timing constraints. In particular, a careful rearrangement of the Interrupt ReQuests’ (IRQs) affinities together with the kernel’s CPU isolation mechanism allows to obtain either soft or hard real-time behavior depending on the synchronization mechanism adopted. Finally, the Multithreaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) framework is used for building applications particularly optimised for exploring multicore architectures. In the past year, four new systems based on this philosophy have been installed and are now part of the JET’s routine operation. The focus of the present work is on the configuration and interconnection of the ingredients that enable these new systems’ real-time capability and on the impact that JET’s distributed real-time architecture has on system engineering requirements, such as algorithm testing and plant commissioning. Details are given about the common real-time configuration and development path of these systems, followed by a brief description of each system together with results regarding their real-time performance. A cycle time jitter analysis of a user-space MARTe based application synchronising over a network is also presented. The goal is to compare its deterministic performance while running on a vanilla and on a Messaging Real time Grid (MRG) Linux kernel.

Implementation of the disruption predictor APODIS in JET Real Time Network using the MARTe framework

Disruptions in tokamaks devices are unavoidable, and they can have a significant impact on machine integrity. So it is very important have mechanisms to predict this phenomenon. Disruption prediction is a very complex task, not only because it is a multi-dimensional problem, but also because in order to be effective, it has to detect well in advance the actual disruptive event, in order to be able to use successful mitigation strategies. With these constraints in mind a real-time disruption predictor has been developed to be used in JET tokamak. The predictor has been designed to run in the Multithreaded Application Real-Time executor (MARTe) framework. The predictor ?Advanced Predictor Of DISruptions? (APODIS) is based on Support Vector Machine (SVM).

Modeling the Real-Time Use of Reserves in the Joint Energy and Reserve Hourly Scheduling of a Pumped Storage Plant

This paper studies the impact that different approaches of modeling the real-time use of the secondary regulation reserves have in the joint energy and reserve hourly scheduling of a price-taker pumped-storage hydropower plant. The unexpected imbalance costs due to the error between the forecasted real-time use of the reserves and the actual value are also studied and evaluated for the different approaches. The proposed methodology is applied to a daily-cycle and closed-loop pumped-storage hydropower plant. Preliminary results show that the deviations in the water volume at the end of the day are important when the percentage of the real-time use of reserves is unknown in advance, and also that the total income in all approaches after correcting these deviations is significantly lower than the maximum theoretical income.

Real-Time Imaging of the Axonal Transport of Granules Containing a Tissue Plasminogen Activator/Green Fluorescent Protein Hybrid

A hybrid protein, tPA/GFP, consisting of rat tissue plasminogen activator (tPA) and green fluorescent protein (GFP) was expressed in PC12 cells and used to study the distribution, secretory behavior, and dynamics of secretory granules containing tPA in living cells with a neuronal phenotype. High-resolution images demonstrate that tPA/GFP has a growth cone-biased distribution in differentiated cells and that tPA/GFP is transported in granules of the regulated secretory pathway that colocalize with granules containing secretogranin II. Time-lapse images of secretion reveal that secretagogues induce substantial loss of cellular tPA/GFP fluorescence, most importantly from growth cones. Time-lapse images of the axonal transport of granules containing tPA/GFP reveal a surprising complexity to granule dynamics. Some granules undergo canonical fast axonal transport; others move somewhat more slowly, especially in highly fluorescent neurites. Most strikingly, granules traffic bidirectionally along neurites to an extent that depends on granule accumulation, and individual granules can reverse their direction of motion. The retrograde component of this bidirectional transport may help to maintain cellular homeostasis by transporting excess tPA/GFP back toward the cell body. The results presented here provide a novel view of the axonal transport of secretory granules. In addition, the results suggest that tPA is targeted for regulated secretion from growth cones of differentiated cells, strategically positioning tPA to degrade extracellular barriers or to activate other barrier-degrading proteases during axonal elongation.

Real-time detection of the surface delivery of newly synthesized membrane proteins.

Newly synthesized membrane proteins travel from the Golgi complex to the cell surface in transport vesicles. We have exploited the ion channel properties of the nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (AChR) to observe in real time the constitutive delivery of newly synthesized AChR proteins to the plasma membrane in cultured muscle cells. Whole-cell voltage clamp was employed to monitor the current fluctuations induced by carbamylcholine upon the insertion into the plasma membrane of newly synthesized AChRs, following release from a 20 degrees C temperature block. We find that the transit of vesicles to the cell surface occurs within a few minutes after release of the block. The time course of electrical signals is consistent with many of the fusion events being instantaneous, although some appear to reveal the flickering of a fusion pore. AChR-containing vesicles can fuse individually or as conglomerates. Intracellular application of guanosine 5'-[gamma-thio]triphosphate inhibits the constitutive traffic of AChRs in most cells. Individual exocytotic vesicles carry between 10 and 300 AChR molecules, suggesting that AChRs may be packed extremely densely.

The social evil in Chicago: a study of existing conditions with recommendations by the Vice Commission of Chicago, a municipal body appointed by the Mayor and the City Council of the City of Chicago, and submitted as its report to the Mayor and City Council of Chicago

Preface -- Outline of study -- Resolution of appreciation -- Introduction and summary -- Proposed ordinance -- Recommendations -- Existing conditions in Chicago -- The social evil and the saloon -- The social evil and the police -- Sources of supply -- Child protection and education -- Rescue and reform -- The social evil and its medical aspects -- Appendices: Text of revised statutes of Illinois and ordinances of the City of Chicago ; Tables ; Exhibits.

Report of the Commission on the cost of living: May, 1910

Robert Luce, chairman.

Vote of the Corporation, 1799 June 10

Two octavo-sized leaves containing a handwritten copy of the vote of the Harvard Corporation during the June 10, 1799 meeting authorizing Judge John Lowell and Judge Oliver Wendell to be a committee to attend to business with the state legislature related to the pending bill before the General Court regarding the College's real estate tax exemptions. The vote also authorized Professor Pearson to work with the Committee as needed. The document is addressed to Professor Pearson and signed by President Willard.