Carbon dioxide and climate impulse response functions for the computation of greenhouse gas metrics: a multi-model analysis

The responses of carbon dioxide (CO2) and other climate variables to an emission pulse of CO2 into the atmosphere are often used to compute the Global Warming Potential (GWP) and Global Temperature change Potential (GTP), to characterize the response timescales of Earth System models, and to build reduced-form models. In this carbon cycle-climate model intercomparison project, which spans the full model hierarchy, we quantify responses to emission pulses of different magnitudes injected under different conditions. The CO2 response shows the known rapid decline in the first few decades followed by a millennium-scale tail. For a 100 Gt-C emission pulse added to a constant CO2 concentration of 389 ppm, 25 ± 9% is still found in the atmosphere after 1000 yr; the ocean has absorbed 59 ± 12% and the land the remainder (16 ± 14%). The response in global mean surface air temperature is an increase by 0.20 ± 0.12 °C within the first twenty years; thereafter and until year 1000, temperature decreases only slightly, whereas ocean heat content and sea level continue to rise. Our best estimate for the Absolute Global Warming Potential, given by the time-integrated response in CO2 at year 100 multiplied by its radiative efficiency, is 92.5 × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. This value very likely (5 to 95% confidence) lies within the range of (68 to 117) × 10−15 yr W m−2 per kg-CO2. Estimates for time-integrated response in CO2 published in the IPCC First, Second, and Fourth Assessment and our multi-model best estimate all agree within 15% during the first 100 yr. The integrated CO2 response, normalized by the pulse size, is lower for pre-industrial conditions, compared to present day, and lower for smaller pulses than larger pulses. In contrast, the response in temperature, sea level and ocean heat content is less sensitive to these choices. Although, choices in pulse size, background concentration, and model lead to uncertainties, the most important and subjective choice to determine AGWP of CO2 and GWP is the time horizon.

A reconstruction of radiocarbon production and total solar irradiance from the Holocene ¹⁴C and CO₂ records: implications of data and model uncertainties

Radiocarbon production, solar activity, total solar irradiance (TSI) and solar-induced climate change are reconstructed for the Holocene (10 to 0 kyr BP), and TSI is predicted for the next centuries. The IntCal09/SHCal04 radiocarbon and ice core CO2 records, reconstructions of the geomagnetic dipole, and instrumental data of solar activity are applied in the Bern3D-LPJ, a fully featured Earth system model of intermediate complexity including a 3-D dynamic ocean, ocean sediments, and a dynamic vegetation model, and in formulations linking radiocarbon production, the solar modulation potential, and TSI. Uncertainties are assessed using Monte Carlo simulations and bounding scenarios. Transient climate simulations span the past 21 thousand years, thereby considering the time lags and uncertainties associated with the last glacial termination. Our carbon-cycle-based modern estimate of radiocarbon production of 1.7 atoms cm−2 s−1 is lower than previously reported for the cosmogenic nuclide production model by Masarik and Beer (2009) and is more in-line with Kovaltsov et al. (2012). In contrast to earlier studies, periods of high solar activity were quite common not only in recent millennia, but throughout the Holocene. Notable deviations compared to earlier reconstructions are also found on decadal to centennial timescales. We show that earlier Holocene reconstructions, not accounting for the interhemispheric gradients in radiocarbon, are biased low. Solar activity is during 28% of the time higher than the modern average (650 MeV), but the absolute values remain weakly constrained due to uncertainties in the normalisation of the solar modulation to instrumental data. A recently published solar activity–TSI relationship yields small changes in Holocene TSI of the order of 1 W m−2 with a Maunder Minimum irradiance reduction of 0.85 ± 0.16 W m−2. Related solar-induced variations in global mean surface air temperature are simulated to be within 0.1 K. Autoregressive modelling suggests a declining trend of solar activity in the 21st century towards average Holocene conditions.

Multiple greenhouse-gas feedbacks from the land biosphere under future climate change scenarios

Atmospheric concentrations of the three important greenhouse gases (GHGs) CO2, CH4 and N2O are mediated by processes in the terrestrial biosphere that are sensitive to climate and CO2. This leads to feedbacks between climate and land and has contributed to the sharp rise in atmospheric GHG concentrations since pre-industrial times. Here, we apply a process-based model to reproduce the historical atmospheric N2O and CH4 budgets within their uncertainties and apply future scenarios for climate, land-use change and reactive nitrogen (Nr) inputs to investigate future GHG emissions and their feedbacks with climate in a consistent and comprehensive framework1. Results suggest that in a business-as-usual scenario, terrestrial N2O and CH4 emissions increase by 80 and 45%, respectively, and the land becomes a net source of C by AD 2100. N2O and CH4 feedbacks imply an additional warming of 0.4–0.5 °C by AD 2300; on top of 0.8–1.0 °C caused by terrestrial carbon cycle and Albedo feedbacks. The land biosphere represents an increasingly positive feedback to anthropogenic climate change and amplifies equilibrium climate sensitivity by 22–27%. Strong mitigation limits the increase of terrestrial GHG emissions and prevents the land biosphere from acting as an increasingly strong amplifier to anthropogenic climate change.

A Hybrid Model for Multimodal Brain Tumor Segmentation

We present a fully automatic segmentation method for multi-modal brain tumor segmentation. The proposed generative-discriminative hybrid model generates initial tissue probabilities, which are used subsequently for enhancing the classi�cation and spatial regularization. The model has been evaluated on the BRATS2013 training set, which includes multimodal MRI images from patients with high- and low-grade gliomas. Our method is capable of segmenting the image into healthy (GM, WM, CSF) and pathological tissue (necrotic, enhancing and non-enhancing tumor, edema). We achieved state-of-the-art performance (Dice mean values of 0.69 and 0.8 for tumor subcompartments and complete tumor respectively) within a reasonable timeframe (4 to 15 minutes).

Mechanism of surgical stress impairment of murine natural killer cell cytotoxicity

Natural killer cells may provide an important first line of defense against metastatic implantation of solid tumors. This antitumor function occurs during the intravascular and visceral lodgment phase of cancer dissemination, as demonstrated in small animal metastasis models. The role of the NK cell in controlling human tumor dissemination is more difficult to confirm, at least partially because of ethical restraints on experimental design. Nonetheless, a large number of solid tumor patient studies have demonstrated NK cell cytolysis of both autologous and allogeneic tumors.^ Of the major cancer therapeutic modalities, successful surgery in conjunction with other treatments offers the best possibility of cure. However, small animal experiments have demonstrated that surgical stress can lead to increased rates of primary tumor take, and increased incidence, size, and rapidity of metastasis development. Because the physiologic impact of surgical stress can also markedly impair perioperative antitumor immune function in humans, we examined the effect of surgical stress on perioperative NK cell cytolytic function in a murine preclinical model. Our studies demonstrated that hindlimb amputation led to a marked impairment of postoperative NK cell cytotoxicity. The mechanism underlying this process is complex and involves the postsurgical generation of splenic erythroblasts that successfully compete with NK cells for tumor target binding sites; NK cell-directed suppressor cell populations; and a direct impairment of NK cell recycling capacity. The observed postoperative NK cell suppression could be prevented by in vivo administration of pyrimidinone biologic response modifiers or by short term in vitro exposure of effector cells to recombinant Interleukin-2. It is hoped that insights gained from this research may help in the future development of NK cell specific perioperative immunotherapy relevant to the solid tumor patients undergoing cancer resection. ^

Paleoclimate data-model comparison and the role of climate forcings over the past 1500 years

The past 1500 years provide a valuable opportunity to study the response of the climate system to external forcings. However, the integration of paleoclimate proxies with climate modeling is critical to improving the understanding of climate dynamics. In this paper, a climate system model and proxy records are therefore used to study the role of natural and anthropogenic forcings in driving the global climate. The inverse and forward approaches to paleoclimate data–model comparison are applied, and sources of uncertainty are identified and discussed. In the first of two case studies, the climate model simulations are compared with multiproxy temperature reconstructions. Robust solar and volcanic signals are detected in Southern Hemisphere temperatures, with a possible volcanic signal detected in the Northern Hemisphere. The anthropogenic signal dominates during the industrial period. It is also found that seasonal and geographical biases may cause multiproxy reconstructions to overestimate the magnitude of the long-term preindustrial cooling trend. In the second case study, the model simulations are compared with a coral δ18O record from the central Pacific Ocean. It is found that greenhouse gases, solar irradiance, and volcanic eruptions all influence the mean state of the central Pacific, but there is no evidence that natural or anthropogenic forcings have any systematic impact on El Niño–Southern Oscillation. The proxy climate relationship is found to change over time, challenging the assumption of stationarity that underlies the interpretation of paleoclimate proxies. These case studies demonstrate the value of paleoclimate data–model comparison but also highlight the limitations of current techniques and demonstrate the need to develop alternative approaches.

Introduction of two novel devices for investigating the influence of non-mechanical components such as therapeutic qi in acupuncture

OBJECTIVE: Acupuncture is a complex intervention consisting of specific and non-specific components. Acupuncture studies more frequently focus on collecting data from the patients’ perspective and response, but the acupuncturist’s role remains relatively unclear. In order to investigate potential non-mechanical active factors originating from the acupuncturist and transmitted to the patient during treatment, two novel devices for basic research in acupuncture were designed. The Acuplicator allows the researcher to insert needles without touching the needles themselves, while the Veliusator locks the needle in its place so that no mechanical movement can be transferred. METHODS: The Acuplicator was used to insert needles at Neiguan (PC6) on the right forearm of 23 volunteers. The insertion depth was measured using a depth gauge. The transfer of mechanical movements from the handle to the tip was detected with a precision length gauge with a motoric-tactile sensor. RESULTS: The mean insertion depth was (12.3 ± 1.5) mm (range 9.5 to 15.0 mm). Even with intense manipulation of the needle handle, no movements within ± 1 μm could be detected at the tip when the needle was locked. CONCLUSION: With these two devices it will be possible to investigate the influence of non-mechanical components such as therapeutic qi in acupuncture.

Inter-hemispheric temperature variability over the past millennium

The Earth’s climate system is driven by a complex interplay of internal chaotic dynamics and natural and anthropogenic external forcing. Recent instrumental data have shown a remarkable degree of asynchronicity between Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere temperature fluctuations, thereby questioning the relative importance of internal versus external drivers of past as well as future climate variability1, 2, 3. However, large-scale temperature reconstructions for the past millennium have focused on the Northern Hemisphere4, 5, limiting empirical assessments of inter-hemispheric variability on multi-decadal to centennial timescales. Here, we introduce a new millennial ensemble reconstruction of annually resolved temperature variations for the Southern Hemisphere based on an unprecedented network of terrestrial and oceanic palaeoclimate proxy records. In conjunction with an independent Northern Hemisphere temperature reconstruction ensemble5, this record reveals an extended cold period (1594–1677) in both hemispheres but no globally coherent warm phase during the pre-industrial (1000–1850) era. The current (post-1974) warm phase is the only period of the past millennium where both hemispheres are likely to have experienced contemporaneous warm extremes. Our analysis of inter-hemispheric temperature variability in an ensemble of climate model simulations for the past millennium suggests that models tend to overemphasize Northern Hemisphere–Southern Hemisphere synchronicity by underestimating the role of internal ocean–atmosphere dynamics, particularly in the ocean-dominated Southern Hemisphere. Our results imply that climate system predictability on decadal to century timescales may be lower than expected based on assessments of external climate forcing and Northern Hemisphere temperature variations5, 6 alone.

Multi-proxy summer and winter precipitation reconstruction for southern Africa over the last 200 years

This study presents the first consolidation of palaeoclimate proxy records from multiple archives to develop statistical rainfall reconstructions for southern Africa covering the last two centuries. State-of-the-art ensemble reconstructions reveal multi-decadal rainfall variability in the summer and winter rainfall zones. A decrease in precipitation amount over time is identified in the summer rainfall zone. No significant change in precipitation amount occurred in the winter rainfall zone, but rainfall variability has increased over time. Generally synchronous rainfall fluctuations between the two zones are identified on decadal scales, with common wet (dry) periods reconstructed around 1890 (1930). A strong relationship between seasonal rainfall and sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the surrounding oceans is confirmed. Coherence among decadal-scale fluctuations of southern African rainfall, regional SST, SSTs in the Pacific Ocean and rainfall in south-eastern Australia suggest SST-rainfall teleconnections across the southern hemisphere. Temporal breakdowns of the SST-rainfall relationship in the southern African regions and the connection between the two rainfall zones are observed, for example during the 1950s. Our results confirm the complex interplay between large-scale teleconnections, regional SSTs and local effects in modulating multi-decadal southern African rainfall variability over long timescales.

Detection, treatment, and prevention of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae : Recommendations from an International Working Group

The prevalence of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) has increased during the past 10 years. Its detection is frequently difficult, because they do not always show a minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) value for carbapenems in the resistance range. Both broth microdilution and agar dilution methods are more sensitive than disk diffusion method, Etest and automated systems. Studies on antimicrobial treatment are based on a limited number of patients; therefore, the optimal treatment is not well established. Combination therapy with two active drugs appears to be more effective than monotherapy. Combination of a carbapenem with another active agent — preferentially an aminoglycoside or colistin — could lower mortality provided that the MIC is #4 mg/l and probably #8 mg/l, and is administered in a higher-dose/prolonged-infusion regimen. An aggressive infection control and prevention strategy is recommended, including reinforcement of hand hygiene, using contact precautions and early detection of CPE through use of targeted surveillance.

Hepatocellular carcinoma in a non-cirrhotic patient with Wilson's disease

We report the exceptional case of hepatocellular carcinoma in a non-cirrhotic patient, whose Wilson's disease was diagnosed at the unusual age of 58 years. The liver histology revealed macrovesicular steatosis with fibrosis, but no cirrhosis. The disease was treated with D-penicillamine for 3 years until acute discomfort in the right upper quadrant led to detection of multifocal hepatocellular carcinoma, which was successfully resected. The histological examination confirmed the malignant nature of the 4 lesions, which were classified according to Edmondson and Steiner as poorly differentiated hepatocellular carcinoma grade 3. The non-tumoral parenchyma showed 80% steatosis with ballooned cells, lobular inflammation, septal fibrosis but no cirrhosis. Hepatocellular carcinoma is rare in Wilson's disease, especially in the absence of cirrhosis. The literature's 28 published cases are reviewed and the contributory role of copper in the hepatocarcinogenic process is discussed.