Uma abordagem GVAR de previsões de taxas de câmbio

O presente trabalho propõe um modelo de previsão simultânea de taxas de câmbio de vários países utilizando a abordagem GVAR e analisa a qualidade destas previsões. Para isso foram utilizados dados de 10 países ou regiões de taxa de câmbio, taxas de juros e nível de preços com frequência mensal entre 2003 e 2015. As previsões foram feitas utilizando janela móvel de 60 meses e avaliadas através da comparação dos erros quadráticos médios contra o benchmark padrão, o random walk, e dos testes de Pesaran e Timmermann e de Diebold e Mariano. Foram feitas previsões out-of-sample para horizontes de 1, 3, 12 e 18 meses. Os resultados mostram que o modelo proposto não consegue superar sistematicamente o random walk, contudo apresenta algum poder de previsão em alguns casos específicos

Comparação de previsões para a produção industrial brasileira considerando efeitos calendário e modelos agregados e desagregados

O trabalho tem como objetivo verificar a existência e a relevância dos Efeitos Calendário em indicadores industriais. São explorados modelos univariados lineares para o indicador mensal da produção industrial brasileira e alguns de seus componentes. Inicialmente é realizada uma análise dentro da amostra valendo-se de modelos estruturais de espaço-estado e do algoritmo de seleção Autometrics, a qual aponta efeito significante da maioria das variáveis relacionadas ao calendário. Em seguida, através do procedimento de Diebold-Mariano (1995) e do Model Confidence Set, proposto por Hansen, Lunde e Nason (2011), são realizadas comparações de previsões de modelos derivados do Autometrics com um dispositivo simples de Dupla Diferença para um horizonte de até 24 meses à frente. Em geral, os modelos Autometrics que consideram as variáveis de calendário se mostram superiores nas projeções de 1 a 2 meses adiante e superam o modelo simples em todos os horizontes. Quando se agrega os componentes de categoria de uso para formar o índice industrial total, há evidências de ganhos nas projeções de prazo mais curto.

Estratégias de momentum no mercado cambial

Utilizo dados semanais para investigar a lucratividade de estratégias de momentum no mercado de câmbio baseadas em dois diferentes métodos de extração da tendência, possivelmente não linear. Comparo a performance com as tradicionais regras de médias móveis, método linear bastante utilizado pelos profissionais do mercado. Eu encontro que o desempenho de todas as estratégias é extremamente sensível à escolha da moeda, às defasagens utilizadas e ao critério de avaliação escolhido. A despeito disso, as moedas dos países do G10 apresentam resultados médios melhores com a utilização dos métodos não lineares, enquanto as moedas dos países emergentes apresentam resultados mistos. Adoto também uma metodologia para o gerenciamento do risco das estratégias de momentum, visando minimizar as “grandes perdas”. Ela tem êxito em diminuir as perdas máximas semanais, o desvio-padrão, a assimetria e curtose para a maior parte das moedas em ambas as estratégias. Quanto ao desempenho, as operações baseadas no filtro HP com gestão do risco apresentam retornos e índices de Sharpe maiores para cerca de 70% das estratégias, enquanto as baseadas na regressão não paramétrica apresentam resultados melhores para cerca de 60% das estratégias.

Exchange rate misalignments and international trade policy: impacts on tariffs

The debate on “exchange wars and trade wars” is raising the attention of experts on international trade and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on one of the most traditional trade policy instruments – tariffs, as defined by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into three sections: the first one examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and its consequences for the multilateral trade system; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; and the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”

Impactos do câmbio nos instrumentos de comércio internacional: o caso das tarifas

Este artigo tem por objetivo analisar os impactos dos desalinhamentos cambiais nos instrumentos de comércio internacional, como estabelecidos pela OMC – Organização Mundial do Comércio. É composto por três partes: a primeira examina os efeitos das variações cambiais sobre tarifas e suas consequências para o sistema multilateral de comércio; a segunda detalha a metodologia utilizada para determinar desalinhamentos cambiais; e a terceira resume a metodologia para determinar o impacto do cambio sobre o nível de proteção tarifária

The distortion of currencies misalignments on trade Instruments: or why currencies wars are not over

The negotiations of mega agreements between the US and the Pacific countries (TPP) and between the US and the EU (TTIP) are raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. TPP and TTIP are proclaimed to be the designers of the rules for the XXI Century. Old trade instruments such as tariffs are said to be no more important for TTIP because tariffs are negligible among those partners but significant to for TPP. Another relevant agreement in negotiation is between the EU and Mercosul, where tariffs are the most important issue in discussion. The main purpose of this paper is to shows that tariff are important for all these agreements, not because of its nominal value, but because the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs are so significant that all concessions can be distorted by overvalued and by devaluated currencies. The article is divided into several sections: the first gives an introduction to the issue; the second explains the methodologies used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents some results for Brazil, US and China; the third summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication” and examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a basket of currencies (a virtual currency of the World) and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The fifth presents some estimates for the main PTAs. The conclusions are present in the last section

EU-Mercosur trade relations: impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs

The issue of “trade and exchange rate misalignments” is being discussed at the G20, IMF and WTO, following an initiative by Brazil. The main purpose of this paper is to apply the methodology developed by the authors to exam the impacts of misalignment on tariffs in order to analyse the impacts of misalignments on the trade relations between two customs unions – the EU and Mercosur, as well as to explain how tariff barriers are affected. It is divided into several sections: the first summarises the debate on exchange rates at the WTO; the second explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments; the third and fourth summarises the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of ‘misalignment tariffication’; the fifth reviews the effects of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs and its consequences for the trade negotiations between the two areas; and the last concludes and suggests a way to move the debate forward in the context of regional arrangements

Trade rules and exchange rate misalignments : in search for a WTO solution e medidas compensatórias

The debate on the link between trade rules and rules on exchange rates is raising the attention of experts on international trade law and economics. The main purpose of this paper is to analyze the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on tariffs as applied by the WTO – World Trade Organization. It is divided into five sections: the first one explains the methodology used to determine exchange rate misalignments and also presents its results for Brazil, US and China; the second summarizes the methodology applied to calculate the impacts of exchange rate misalignments on the level of tariff protection through an exercise of “misalignment tariffication”; the third examines the effects of exchange rate variations on tariffs and their consequences for the multilateral trading system; the fourth one creates a methodology to estimate exchange rates against a currency of the World and a proposal to deal with persistent and significant misalignments related to trade rules. The conclusions are present in the last section

The art of being together: a social constructionist perspective on dialogic methods in the organizational context

The purpose of this project is to understand, under a social constructionist approach, what are the meanings that external facilitators and organizational members (sponsors) working with dialogic methods place on themselves and their work. Dialogic methods, with the objective of engaging groups in flows of conversations to envisage and co-create their own future, are growing fast within organizations as a means to achieve collective change. Sharing constructionist ideas about the possibility of multiple realities and language as constitutive of such realities, dialogue has turned into a promising way for transformation, especially in a macro context of constant change and increasing complexity, where traditional structures, relationships and forms of work are questioned. Research on the topic has mostly focused on specific methods or applications, with few attempts to study it in a broader sense. Also, despite the fact that dialogic methods work on the assumption that realities are socially constructed, few studies approach the topic from a social constructionist perspective, as a research methodology per se. Thus, while most existing research aims at explaining whether or how particular methods meet particular results, my intention is to explore the meanings sustaining these new forms of organizational practice. Data was collected through semi-structured interviews with 25 people working with dialogic methods: 11 facilitators and 14 sponsors, from 8 different organizations in Brazil. Firstly, the research findings indicate several contextual elements that seem to sustain the choices for dialogic methods. Within this context, there does not seem to be a clear or specific demand for dialogic methods, but a set of different motivations, objectives and focuses, bringing about several contrasts in the way participants name, describe and explain their experiences with such methods, including tensions on power relations, knowledge creation, identity and communication. Secondly, some central ideas or images were identified within such contrasts, pointing at both directions: dialogic methods as opportunities for the creation of new organizational realities (with images of a ‘door’ or a ‘flow’, for instance, which suggest that dialogic methods may open up the access to other perspectives and the creation of new realities); and dialogic methods as new instrumental mechanisms that seem to reproduce the traditional and non-dialogical forms of work and relationship. The individualistic tradition and its tendency for rational schematism - pointed out by social constructionist scholars as strong traditions in our Western Culture - could be observed in some participants’ accounts with the image of dialogic methods as a ‘gym’, for instance, in which dialogical – and idealized –‘abilities’ could be taught and trained, turning dialogue into a tool, rather than a means for transformation. As a conclusion, I discuss what the implications of such taken-for-granted assumptions may be, and offer some insights into dialogue (and dialogic methods) as ‘the art of being together’.

Assessing global economic activity linkages: an empirical exercise based on global autoregressive regression

Economic performance increasingly relies on global economic environment due to the growing importance of trade and nancial links among countries. Literature on growth spillovers shows various gains obtained by this interaction. This work aims at analyzing the possible e ects of a potential economic growth downturn in China, Germany and United States on the growth of other economies. We use global autoregressive regression approach to assess interdependence among countries. Two types of phenomena are simulated. The rst one is a one time shock that hit these economies. Our simulations use a large shock of -2.5 standard deviations, a gure very similar to what we saw back in the 2008 crises. The second experiment simulate the e ect of a hypothetical downturn of the aforementioned economies. Our results suggest that the United States play the role of a global economy a ecting countries across the globe whereas Germany and China play a regional role.

Alocação de riscos e equilíbrio econômico-financeiro em contratos de gestão: o caso da fundação OSESP

As parcerias entre o governo e instituições da sociedade civil têm se mostrado um instrumento fundamental para a consecução das políticas públicas. O “Programa Nacional de Publicização”, focalizando os serviços públicos não-exclusivos, trouxe maior possibilidade de flexibilização da gestão dessas atividades, chamando as organizações do terceiro setor a um papel de protagonismo na oferta de serviços públicos no Brasil. A nova interação entre esses agentes cria a necessidade de melhor entendimento de suas relações jurídicas e de realinhamento de expectativas e incentivos, bem como melhor definição da alocação de riscos entre os parceiros. Este trabalho analisa as parcerias com as Organizações Sociais na área da Cultura no Estado de São Paulo. Mais especificamente, o contrato de gestão da Fundação Osesp no período de 2005 a 2015. A partir desse caso, analisamos as oportunidades e dificuldades encontradas na contratualização dos resultados, os impactos na governança corporativa da instituição, as condições de alocação dos riscos, suas formas de mitigação e as necessidades de reequilíbrio econômico-financeiro.

Os fundos patrimoniais endowment no Brasil

The present study aims to provide a wide panorama of the endowment funds in Brazil, addressing not only the concept of this kind of fund and its role in the development context of the Brazilian third sector, but also the current legal barriers that hinder the full consolidation of the endowment as an important tool for the sustainable management of nonprofit organizations’ assets. The methodology adopted for this purpose relies on a course that goes from a more abstract approach – the gathering and analysis of the (actual and expected) legislation concerning the endowment funds – and ends with a more concrete one – the study of the demands and challenges faced by a few endowments funds based in the state of São Paulo that were interviewed by the author.

Práticas de ensino da música de rabeca no Rio Grande do Norte

MARTINS, Emerson Carpegianne de Souza ; LIMA, Agostinho Jorge de. Práticas de ensino da música de rabeca no Rio Grande do Norte. In: ENCONTRO REGIONAL DA ABEM NORDESTE, 9. Natal, 2010.Anais... Natal: UFRN/ESCOLA DE MUSICA, 2010

Conhecimento, sociabilidade e lazer em jogos online : SubTítulo: uma etnografia na "Lan House do Paulo" em São Gonçalo do Amarante-RN

In a highly dynamic society such as we live, have access to the virtual world is an increasingly common practice, is aiming to study, work or to search leisure through chat rooms, sites and games, being incorporated by the most varied groups that end up appropriating these new possibilities of interaction, shaping them in order to adapt them to their needs / wants. The specific purposes pursued through the use of tools available over the Internet can vary considerably when one takes into account specific user groups, which makes the topic quite relevant to problematization, especially when we take into account access through lan houses. This research seeks to study the networks of knowledge, sociability and leisure formed by young people who frequented the "Lan house do Paulo" in São Gonçalo do Amarante - RN based on the use of the online role-playing-game World of Warcraft, which makes possible the interaction of several users through an avatar resident in a virtual world, theoretically questioning the importance of this type of platform for the development and maintenance of social interactions among its users