The population dynamics of disease on short and long time-scales

Observational evidence is scarce concerning the distribution of plant pathogen population sizes or densities as a function of time-scale or spatial scale. For wild pathosystems we can only get indirect evidence from evolutionary patterns and the consequences of biological invasions.We have little or no evidence bearing on extermination of hosts by pathogens, or successful escape of a host from a pathogen. Evidence over the last couple of centuries from crops suggest that the abundance of particular pathogens in the spectrum affecting a given host can vary hugely on decadal timescales. However, this may be an artefact of domestication and intensive cultivation. Host-pathogen dynamics can be formulated mathematically fairly easily–for example as SIR-type differential equation or difference equation models, and this has been the (successful) focus of recent work in crops. “Long-term” is then discussed in terms of the time taken to relax from a perturbation to the asymptotic state. However, both host and pathogen dynamics are driven by environmental factors as well as their mutual interactions, and both host and pathogen co-evolve, and evolve in response to external factors. We have virtually no information about the importance and natural role of higher trophic levels (hyperpathogens) and competitors, but they could also induce long-scale fluctuations in the abundance of pathogens on particular hosts. In wild pathosystems the host distribution cannot be modelled as either a uniform density or even a uniform distribution of fields (which could then be treated as individuals). Patterns of short term density-dependence and the detail of host distribution are therefore critical to long-term dynamics. Host density distributions are not usually scale-free, but are rarely uniform or clearly structured on a single scale. In a (multiply structured) metapopulation with coevolution and external disturbances it could well be the case that the time required to attain equilibrium (if it exists) based on conditions stable over a specified time-scale is longer than that time-scale. Alternatively, local equilibria may be reached fairly rapidly following perturbations but the meta-population equilibrium be attained very slowly. In either case, meta-stability on various time-scales is a more relevant than equilibrium concepts in explaining observed patterns.

Changes in the distribution of red foxes (Vulpes vulpes) in urban areas in Great Britain: findings and limitations of a media-driven nationwide survey

Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km-2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain.

An aggregated wind power generation model based on MERRA reanalysis data: MATLAB model and example data for the April 2014 wind farm distribution of Great Britain.

The MATLAB model is contained within the compressed folders (versions are available as .zip and .tgz). This model uses MERRA reanalysis data (>34 years available) to estimate the hourly aggregated wind power generation for a predefined (fixed) distribution of wind farms. A ready made example is included for the wind farm distribution of Great Britain, April 2014 ("CF.dat"). This consists of an hourly time series of GB-total capacity factor spanning the period 1980-2013 inclusive. Given the global nature of reanalysis data, the model can be applied to any specified distribution of wind farms in any region of the world. Users are, however, strongly advised to bear in mind the limitations of reanalysis data when using this model/data. This is discussed in our paper: Cannon, Brayshaw, Methven, Coker, Lenaghan. "Using reanalysis data to quantify extreme wind power generation statistics: a 33 year case study in Great Britain". Submitted to Renewable Energy in March, 2014. Additional information about the model is contained in the model code itself, in the accompanying ReadMe file, and on our website: http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~energymet/data/Cannon2014/

Re-fitting Etton: space, time and material culture within a causewayed enclosure in Cambridgeshire

This paper considers the dynamics of deposition around and across the causewayed enclosure at Etton, Cambridgeshire. As a result of detailed re-analysis (particularly refitting) of the pottery and flint assemblages from the site, it proved possible to shed new light both on the temporality of occupation and the character of deposition there. Certain aspects of our work challenge previous interpretations of the site, and of causewayed enclosures in general; but, just as importantly, others confirm materially what has previously been suggested. The quantities of material deposited at Etton reveal that the enclosure was occupied only very intermittently and certainly less regularly than other contemporary sites in the region. The spatial distribution of material suggests that the enclosure ditch lay open for the entirety of the monument's life, but that acts of deposition generally focused on a specific part of the monument at any one time. As well as enhancing our knowledge of one particular causewayed enclosure, it is hoped that this paper – in combination with our earlier analysis of the pit site at Kilverstone – makes clear the potential that detailed material analysis has to offer in relation to our understanding of the temporality of occupation on prehistoric sites in general.

A numerical model of the ionospheric signatures of time-varying magneticreconnection: I. ionospheric convection

This paper presents a numerical model for predicting the evolution of the pattern of ionospheric convection in response to general time-dependent magnetic reconnection at the dayside magnetopause and in the cross-tail current sheet of the geomagnetic tail. The model quantifies the concepts of ionospheric flow excitation by Cowley and Lockwood (1992), assuming a uniform spatial distribution of ionospheric conductivity. The model is demonstrated using an example in which travelling reconnection pulses commence near noon and then move across the dayside magnetopause towards both dawn and dusk. Two such pulses, 8 min apart, are used and each causes the reconnection to be active for 1 min at every MLT that they pass over. This example demonstrates how the convection response to a given change in the interplanetary magnetic field (via the reconnection rate) depends on the previous reconnection history. The causes of this effect are explained. The inherent assumptions and the potential applications of the model are discussed.

Modelling the high-latitude ionosphere for time-varying plasma convection

The paper discusses how variations in the pattern of convective plasma flows should beincluded in self-consistent time-dependent models of the coupled ionosphere-thermosphere system. The author shows how these variations depend upon the mechanism by which the solar wind flow excites the convection. The modelling of these effects is not just of relevance to the polar ionosphere. This is because the influence of convection is not confined to high latitudes: the resultant heating and composition changes in the thermosphere are communicated to lower latitudes by the winds which are also greatly modified by the plasma convection. These thermospheric changes alter the global distribution of plasma by modulatingthe rates of the chemical reactions which areresponsible for the loss of plasma. Hence the modelling of these high-latitude processes is of relevanceto the design and operation of HF communication, radar and navigation systems worldwide.

Unrestricted Skyrme-tensor time-dependent Hartree-Fock model and its application to the nuclear response from spherical to triaxial nuclei

The nuclear time-dependent Hartree-Fock model formulated in three-dimensional space, based on the full standard Skyrme energy density functional complemented with the tensor force, is presented. Full self-consistency is achieved by the model. The application to the isovector giant dipole resonance is discussed in the linear limit, ranging from spherical nuclei (16O and 120Sn) to systems displaying axial or triaxial deformation (24Mg, 28Si, 178Os, 190W and 238U). Particular attention is paid to the spin-dependent terms from the central sector of the functional, recently included together with the tensor. They turn out to be capable of producing a qualitative change on the strength distribution in this channel. The effect on the deformation properties is also discussed. The quantitative effects on the linear response are small and, overall, the giant dipole energy remains unaffected. Calculations are compared to predictions from the (quasi)-particle random-phase approximation and experimental data where available, finding good agreement

Distribution analysis of the putative cancer marker S100A4 across invasive squamous cell carcinoma penile tissue

MS-based proteomic methods were utilised for the first time in the discovery of novel penile cancer biomarkers. MALDI MS imaging was used to obtain the in situ biomolecular MS profile of squamous cell carcinoma of the penis which was then compared to benign epithelial MS profiles. Spectra from cancerous and benign tissue areas were examined to identify MS peaks that best distinguished normal epithelial cells from invasive squamous epithelial cells, providing crucial evidence to suggest S100A4 to be differentially expressed. Verification by immunohistochemistry resulted in positive staining for S100A4 in a sub-population of invasive but not benign epithelial cells.

Intake, water consumption, ruminal fermentation, and stress response of beef heifers fed after different lengths of delays in the daily feed delivery time

Four rumen-fistulated Holstein heifers (134 +/- 1 kg initial BW) were used in a 4 x 4 Latin square design to determine the effects of delaying daily feed delivery time on intake, ruminal fermentation, behavior, and stress response. Each 3-wk experimental period was preceded by 1 wk in which all animals were fed at 0800 h. Feed bunks were cleaned at 0745 h and feed offered at 0800 h (T0, no delay), 0900 (T1), 1000 (T2), and 1100 (T3) from d1 to 21 with measurements taken during wk 1 and 3. Heifers were able to see each other at all times. Concentrate and barley straw were offered in separate compartments of the feed bunks, once daily and for ad libitum intake. Ruminal pH and saliva cortisol concentrations were measured at 0, 4, 8, and 12 h postfeeding on d 3 and 17 of each experimental period. Fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were measured on d 17. Increasing length of delay in daily feed delivery time resulted in a quadratic response in concentrate DMI (low in T1 and T2; P = 0.002), whereas straw DMI was greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.03). Treatments affected the distribution of DMI within the day with a linear decrease observed between 0800 and 1200 h but a linear increase during nighttimes (2000 to 0800 h), whereas T1 and T2 had reduced DMI between 1200 and 1600 h (quadratic P = 0.04). Water consumption (L/d) was not affected but decreased linearly when expressed as liters per kilogram of DMI (P = 0.01). Meal length was greatest and eating rate slowest in T1 and T2 (quadratic P <= 0.001). Size of the first meal after feed delivery was reduced in T1 on d 1 (cubic P = 0.05) and decreased linearly on d 2 (P = 0.01) after change. Concentrate eating and drinking time (shortest in T1) and straw eating time (longest in T1) followed a cubic trend (P = 0.02). Time spent lying down was shortest and ruminating in standing position longest in T1 and T2. Delay of feeding time resulted in greater daily maximum salivary cortisol concentration (quadratic P = 0.04), which was greatest at 0 h in T1 and at 12 h after feeding in T2 (P < 0.05). Daily mean fecal glucocorticoid metabolites were greatest in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.04). Ruminal pH showed a treatment effect at wk 1 because of increased values in T1 and T3 (cubic P = 0.01). Delaying feed delivery time was not detrimental for rumen function because a stress response was triggered, which led to reduced concentrate intake, eating rate, and size of first meal, and increased straw intake. Increased salivary cortisol suggests that animal welfare is compromised.

Changes of a mutualistic network over time: reanalysis over a 10-year period

We analyzed the structure of a multispecific network or interacting ants and plants bearing extrafloral nectaries recorded in 1990 and again in 2000 in La Mancha, Veracruz, Mexico. We assessed the replicability of the number of interactions found among species and also whether there had been changes in the network structure associated with appearance of new ant and plant species during. that 10-year period. Our results show that the nested topology of the network was similar between sampling dates, group dissimilarity increased, mean number of interactions for ant species increased, the frequency distribution of standardized degrees reached higher values for plant species, more ant species and fewer plant species constituted the core of the more recent network, and the presence of new ant and plant species increased while their contribution to nestedness remained the same. Generalist species (i.e., those with the most links or interactions) appeared to maintain the stability of the network because the new species incorporated into the communities were linked to this core of generalists. Camponotus planatus was the most extreme generalist ant species (the one with the most links) in both networks, followed by four other ant species; but other species changed either their position along the continuum of generalists relative to specialists or their presence or absence within the network. Even though new species moved into the area during the decade between the surveys, the overall network structure remained unmodified.

The invasive hydromedusae Blackfordia virginica Mayer, 1910 (Cnidaria: Blackfordiidae) in southern Brazil, with comments on taxonomy and distribution of the genus Blackfordia

The invasive brackish-water hydrozoan Blackfordia virginica is reported from estuaries and harbours in southeastern and southern Brazil. Medusae of the species were collected for the first time in Cananeia, Guaratuba Bay, and Babitonga Bay. They were also found in Paranagua Bay where they were previously known to occur. Based on material examined here, a comparative redescription is given of B. virginica, and its distribution worldwide is reviewed. The three nominal species of Blackfordia are assessed.

Time-lag in biological responses to landscape changes in a highly dynamic Atlantic forest region

Time-lagged responses of biological variables to landscape modifications are widely recognized, but rarely considered in ecological studies. In order to test for the existence of time-lags in the response of trees, small mammals, birds and frogs to changes in fragment area and connectivity, we studied a fragmented and highly dynamic landscape in the Atlantic forest region. We also investigated the biological correlates associated with differential responses among taxonomic groups. Species richness and abundance for four taxonomic groups were measured in 21 secondary forest fragments during the same period (2000-2002), following a standardized protocol. Data analyses were based on power regressions and model selection procedures. The model inputs included present (2000) and past (1962, 1981) fragment areas and connectivity, as well as observed changes in these parameters. Although past landscape structure was particularly relevant for trees, all taxonomic groups (except small mammals) were affected by landscape dynamics, exhibiting a time-lagged response. Furthermore, fragment area was more important for species groups with lower dispersal capacity, while species with higher dispersal ability had stronger responses to connectivity measures. Although these secondary forest fragments still maintain a large fraction of their original biodiversity, the delay in biological response combined with high rates of deforestation and fast forest regeneration imply in a reduction in the average age of the forest. This also indicates that future species losses are likely, especially those that are more strictly-forest dwellers. Conservation actions should be implemented to reduce species extinction, to maintain old-growth forests and to favour the regeneration process. Our results demonstrate that landscape history can strongly affect the present distribution pattern of species in fragmented landscapes, and should be considered in conservation planning. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

The spider genus Chrysometa (Araneae, Tetragnathidae) from the Pico da Neblina and Serra do Tapirapeco mountains (Amazonas, Brazil): new species, new records, diversity and distribution along two altitudinal gradients

Eight new species of the spider genus Chrysometa Simon, 1894 (Araneae, Tetragnathidae) are described and illustrated. Chrysometa nubigena n. sp., C. waikoxi n. sp., C. petrasierwaldae n. sp., C. santosi n. sp., C. yanomami n. sp., C. candianii n. sp., C. lomanhungae n. sp., and C. saci n. sp. Those species were collected in a study on the diversity of spider communities along altitudinal gradients in Brazilian Amazonia. C. saci was captured at the Serra do Tapirapeco (Barcelos), while all the other species are from the Pico da Neblina (Sao Gabriel da Cachoeira), the highest mountain in Brazil. We provide new records for C. boraceia, C. flava, C. guttata, C. minuta and C. opulenta, and we describe the male of C. minuta for the first time. We also present the first results on the diversity and altitudinal distribution of the species of Chrysometa at the Pico da Neblina and Serra do Tapirapeco. We sampled the first locality at six different elevations, and obtained 336 specimens distributed in 12 species. Richness and abundance, as well as relative importance peaked at the highest sites sampled (2,000 and 2,400 m). The three most abundant species showed a segregated distribution, being dominant or exclusively distributed in different altitudes. At the Serra do Tapirapeco, sampling at four different elevations up to 1200 m, we only obtained 40 individuals divided in four species, and there was no clear relation to altitude. Most of the new species were found at mid and high altitude sites, while species from lower altitude sites represented widespread species. The comparison with other neotropical spiders inventories highlights the high diversity recorded at Pico da Neblina, which could be assigned to the large environmental variation covered in this work and to the sampling of high-altitude environments. Inventories in the Andean region and other information in the literature also seem to support the association of Chrysometa with high altitude environments.

Expression Profile and Distribution of Efhc1 Gene Transcript During Rodent Brain Development

One of the putative causative genes for juvenile myoclonic epilepsy (JME) is EFHC1. We report here the expression profile and distribution of Efhc1 messenger RNA (mRNA) during mouse and rat brain development. Real-time polymerase chain reaction revealed that there is no difference in the expression of Efhc1 mRNA between right and left hemispheres in both species. In addition, the highest levels of Efhc1 mRNA were found at intra-uterine stages in mouse and in adulthood in rat. In common, there was a progressive decrease in Efhc1 expression from 1-day-old neonates to 14-day-old animals in both species. In situ hybridization studies showed that rat and mouse Efhc1 mRNAs are expressed in ependymal cells of ventricle walls. Our findings suggest that Efhc1 expression is more important during initial phases of brain development and that at this stage it could be involved in key developmental mechanisms underlying JME.

Human toxocariasis in rural Brazilian Amazonia: Seroprevalence, risk factors, and spatial distribution

This population-based cross-sectional study of 403 rural settlers in Brazilian Amazonia revealed an overall rate of IgG seropositivity to Toxocara canis excretory-secretory larval antigen of 26.8% (95% confidence interval [CI], 22.5-31.4%). Multilevel logistic regression analysis identified current infection with hookworm (odds ratio [OR], 2.32; 95% CI, 1.11-4.86) and residence in the most recently occupied sectors of the settlement (OR, 1.81.; 95%CI, 1.3-2.52) as significant risk factors for Toxocara seropositivity; age > 14 years (OR, 0.46; 95% CI, 0.28-0.73) and the presence of cats in the household (OR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.32-1.02) appeared to be protective. Two significant high-prevalence clusters were detected in the area, together comprising 38.9% of the seropositive subjects; households in the clusters had slightly lower socioeconomic status and were less likely to have cats as pets. The obstacles for controlling human toxocariasis in this and other tropical rural settings are discussed.