Luck and the control theory of knowledge

The dissertation accomplishes two aims: 1) to diagnose what prevents true beliefs from being knowledge; 2) to give an positive account of knowledge. Concerning the first aim, it offers an account of the notion of luck. It defends the view that luck is a form of risk and distinguishes two types of luck. Then, it applies the account to the problem of epistemic luck and distinguishes, accordingly, two types of epistemic luck. It is argued that these two types of epistemic luck explain the whole range of cases of not-known true belief. Concerning the second aim, the dissertation advances an account of knowledge in terms of the notion of cognitive control that deals with the two forms of epistemic luck distinguished.

Using the costs of drug therapy to screen patients for a community pharmacy-based medication review program

Objectives: To measure the positive predictive value (PPV) of the cost of drug therapy (threshold = 2000 Swiss francs [CHF], US$1440, <euro>1360) as a screening criterion for identifying patients who may benefit from medication review (MR). To describe identified drug-related problems (DRPs) and expense problems (EPs), and to estimate potential savings if all recommendations were accepted. Setting Five voluntary Swiss community pharmacies. Methods: Of 12,680 patients, 592 (4.7%) had drug therapy costs exceeding 2000 CHF over a six-month period from July 1 to December 31, 2002. This threshold limit was set to identify high-risk patients for DRPs and EPs. Three pharmacists consecutively conducted a medication review based on the pharmaceutical charts of 125 sampled patients who met the inclusion criterion. Main outcome measure: The PPV of a threshold of 2000 CHF for identifying patients who might benefit from a MR: true positives were patients with at least one DRP, while false positives were patients with no DRP. Results: The selection based on this criterion had a PPV of 86% for detecting patients with at least one DRP and 95% if EPs were also considered. There was a mean of 2.64 (SD = 2.20) DRPs per patient and a mean of 2.14 (SD = 1.39) EPs per patient. Of these patients, 90% were over 65 years old or were treated with at least five chronic medications, two common criteria for identifying patients at risk of DRPs. The main types of DRPs were drug-drug interactions, compliance problems and duplicate drugs. Mean daily drug cost per patient was CHF 14.87 (US$10.70, <euro>10.10). A potential savings of CHF 1.67 (US$1.20, <euro>1.14) per day (11%) was estimated if all recommendations to solve DRPs and EPs suggested herein were implemented. Conclusion: Further studies should investigate whether the potential benefit of medication reviews in preventing DRPs and containing costs in this patient group can be confirmed in a real practice environment. [Authors]

Adhésion thérapeutique du patient chronique: des concepts a la prise en charge ambulatoire [Medication adherence in chronic patients: from its concepts to its management in primary care].

Medication nonadherence is common and its determinants are diverse. Adherence is influenced by many parameters, such as patient's self-efficacy, knowledge of health risk, outcome expectations, benefits of change, and barriers and facilitators. The sociocognitive theory helps professionals to structure their approach and to support patients in managing their treatment. Professionals need skills and time, and benefit from coordination in care, in particular between physicians and pharmacists. This article presents the key elements of a medication adherence program as well as tools and some useful questions.

Positive deviance study to inform a Chagas disease control program in southern Ecuador

Chagas disease is caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, which is mainly transmitted by the faeces of triatomine insects that find favourable environments in poorly constructed houses. Previous studies have documented persistent triatomine infestation in houses in the province of Loja in southern Ecuador despite repeated insecticide and educational interventions. We aim to develop a sustainable strategy for the interruption of Chagas disease transmission by promoting living environments that are designed to prevent colonisation of rural houses by triatomines. This study used positive deviance to inform the design of an anti-triatomine prototype house by identifying knowledge, attitudes and practices used by families that have remained triatomine-free (2010-2012). Positive deviants reported practices that included maintenance of structural elements of the house, fumigation of dwellings and animal shelters, sweeping with "insect repellent" plants and relocation of domestic animals away from the house, among others. Participants favoured construction materials that do not drastically differ from those currently used (adobe walls and tile roofs). They also expressed their belief in a clear connection between a clean house and health. The family's economic dynamics affect space use and must be considered in the prototype's design. Overall, the results indicate a positive climate for the introduction of housing improvements as a protective measure against Chagas disease in this region.

Prevalence of overweight and obesity in children and adolescents in Seychelles : results of the School Screening Program in 2013

Results related to overweight and obesity in 2013: Participation to the school screening program was satisfactory in 2013, but a bit less than in previous years (4220 children seen out of a total of approximately 6000 eligible ones). Less than maximal participation to the screening program can relate to different factors, e.g.; a trend for obese children to decline participation; lack of time of school nurses to complete the screening program due to competing duties at health centre level. Good organization by the school nurses and adequate facilities for screening are also important factors for a good conduct of the screening program.

Cost-effectiveness of an exercise intervention program in perimenopausal women: the Fitness League Against MENopause COst (FLAMENCO) randomized controlled trial.

BACKGROUND The high prevalence of women that do not reach the recommended level of physical activity is worrisome. A sedentary lifestyle has negative consequences on health status and increases health care costs. The main objective of this project is to assess the cost-effectiveness of a primary care-based exercise intervention in perimenopausal women. METHODS/DESIGN The present study is a Randomized Controlled Trial. A total of 150 eligible women will be recruited and randomly assigned to either a 16-week exercise intervention (3 sessions/week), or to usual care (control) group. The primary outcome measure is the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio. The secondary outcome measures are: i) socio-demographic and clinical information; ii) body composition; iii) dietary patterns; iv) glycaemic and lipid profile; v) physical fitness; vi) physical activity and sedentary behaviour; vii) sleep quality; viii) quality of life, mental health and positive health; ix) menopause symptoms. All outcomes will be assessed at baseline and post intervention. The data will be analysed on an intention-to-treat basis and per protocol. In addition, we will conduct a cost effectiveness analysis from a health system perspective. DISCUSSION The intervention designed is feasible and if it proves to be clinically and cost effective, it can be easily transferred to other similar contexts. Consequently, the findings of this project might help the Health Systems to identify strategies for primary prevention and health promotion as well as to reduce health care requirements and costs. TRIAL REGISTRATION ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02358109 . Date of registration: 05/02/2015.

A fast-track program reduces complications and length of hospital stay after open colonic surgery.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: A fast-track program is a multimodal approach for patients undergoing colonic surgery that combines stringent regimens of perioperative care (fluid restriction, optimized analgesia, forced mobilization, and early oral feeding) to reduce perioperative morbidity, hospital stay, and cost. We investigated the impact of a fast-track protocol on postoperative morbidity in patients after open colonic surgery. METHODS: A randomized trial of patients in 4 teaching hospitals in Switzerland included 156 patients undergoing elective open colonic surgery who were assigned to either a fast-track program or standard care. The primary end point was the 30-day complication rate. Secondary end points were severity of complications, hospital stay, and compliance with the fast-track protocol. RESULTS: The fast-track protocol significantly decreased the number of complications (16 of 76 in the fast-track group vs 37 of 75 in the standard care group; P = .0014), resulting in shorter hospital stays (median, 5 days; range, 2-30 vs 9 days, respectively; range, 6-30; P < .0001). There was a trend toward less severe complications in the fast-track group. A multiple logistic regression analysis revealed fluid administration greater than the restriction limits (odds ratio, 4.198; 95% confidence interval, 1.7-10.366; P = .002) and a nonfunctioning epidural analgesia (odds ratio, 3.365; 95% confidence interval, 1.367-8.283; P = .008) as independent predictors of postoperative complications. CONCLUSIONS: The fast-track program reduces the rate of postoperative complications and length of hospital stay and should be considered as standard care. Fluid restriction and an effective epidural analgesia are the key factors that determine outcome of the fast-track program.

Monitoring procedures in environmental geochemistry and compositional data analysis theory

First discussion on compositional data analysis is attributable to Karl Pearson, in 1897. However, notwithstanding the recent developments on algebraic structure of the simplex, more than twenty years after Aitchison’s idea of log-transformations of closed data, scientific literature is again full of statistical treatments of this type of data by using traditional methodologies. This is particularly true in environmental geochemistry where besides the problem of the closure, the spatial structure (dependence) of the data have to be considered. In this work we propose the use of log-contrast values, obtained by asimplicial principal component analysis, as LQGLFDWRUV of given environmental conditions. The investigation of the log-constrast frequency distributions allows pointing out the statistical laws able togenerate the values and to govern their variability. The changes, if compared, for example, with the mean values of the random variables assumed as models, or other reference parameters, allow definingmonitors to be used to assess the extent of possible environmental contamination. Case study on running and ground waters from Chiavenna Valley (Northern Italy) by using Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, HCO3-, SO4 2- and Cl- concentrations will be illustrated

Advances in Sequence Analysis: Theory, Methods, Applications

This book gives a general view of sequence analysis, the statistical study of successions of states or events. It includes innovative contributions on life course studies, transitions into and out of employment, contemporaneous and historical careers, and political trajectories. The approach presented in this book is now central to the life-course perspective and the study of social processes more generally. This volume promotes the dialogue between approaches to sequence analysis that developed separately, within traditions contrasted in space and disciplines. It includes the latest developments in sequential concepts, coding, atypical datasets and time patterns, optimal matching and alternative algorithms, survey optimization, and visualization. Field studies include original sequential material related to parenting in 19th-century Belgium, higher education and work in Finland and Italy, family formation before and after German reunification, French Jews persecuted in occupied France, long-term trends in electoral participation, and regime democratization. Overall the book reassesses the classical uses of sequences and it promotes new ways of collecting, formatting, representing and processing them. The introduction provides basic sequential concepts and tools, as well as a history of the method. Chapters are presented in a way that is both accessible to the beginner and informative to the expert.

The effect of recalled previous work environment on return to work after a rehabilitation program including vocational aspects for trauma patients.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of the present study was to assess the association between remembered previous work place environment and return to work (RTW) after hospitalisation in a rehabilitation hospital. METHODS: A cohort of 291 orthopedic trauma patients discharged from hospital between 15 December 2004 and 31 December 2005 was included in a study addressing quality of life and work-related questions. Remembered previous work environment was measured by Karasek's 31-item Job Content Questionnaire (JCQ), given to the patients during hospitalisation. Post-hospitalisation work status was assessed 3 months, 1, and 2 years after discharge, using a questionnaire sent to the ex-patients. Logistic regression models were used to test the role of four JCQ variables on RTW at each time point while controlling for relevant confounders. RESULTS: Subjects perceiving a higher physical demand were less likely to return to work 1 year after hospital discharge. Social support at work was positively associated with RTW at all time points. A high job strain appeared to be positively associated with RTW 1 year after rehabilitation, with limitations due to large confidence intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Perceptions of previous work environment may influence the probability of RTW. In a rehabilitation setting, efforts should be made to assess those perceptions and, if needed, interventions to modify them should be applied.

War Signals: A Theory of Trade, Trust and Conflict

We construct a dynamic theory of civil conflict hinging on inter-ethnic trust and trade. The model economy is inhabitated by two ethnic groups. Inter-ethnic trade requires imperfectly observed bilateral investments and one group has to form beliefs on the average propensity to trade of the other group. Since conflict disrupts trade, the onset of a conflict signals that the aggressor has a low propensity to trade. Agents observe the history of conflicts and update their beliefs over time, transmitting them to the next generation. The theory bears a set of testable predictions. First, war is a stochastic process whose frequency depends on the state of endogenous beliefs. Second, the probability of future conflicts increases after each conflict episode. Third, "accidental" conflicts that do not reflect economic fundamentals can lead to a permanent breakdown of trust, plunging a society into a vicious cycle of recurrent conflicts (a war trap). The incidence of conflict can be reduced by policies abating cultural barriers, fostering inter-ethnic trade and human capital, and shifting beliefs. Coercive peace policies such as peacekeeping forces or externally imposed regime changes have instead no persistent effects.

Fitness, inclusive fitness, and optimization

Individual-as-maximizing agent analogies result in a simple understanding of the functioning of the biological world. Identifying the conditions under which individuals can be regarded as fitness maximizing agents is thus of considerable interest to biologists. Here, we compare different concepts of fitness maximization, and discuss within a single framework the relationship between Hamilton's (J Theor Biol 7: 1-16, 1964) model of social interactions, Grafen's (J Evol Biol 20: 1243-1254, 2007a) formal Darwinism project, and the idea of evolutionary stable strategies. We distinguish cases where phenotypic effects are additive separable or not, the latter not being covered by Grafen's analysis. In both cases it is possible to define a maximand, in the form of an objective function phi(z), whose argument is the phenotype of an individual and whose derivative is proportional to Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. However, this maximand can be identified with the expression for fecundity or fitness only in the case of additive separable phenotypic effects, making individual-as-maximizing agent analogies unattractive (although formally correct) under general situations of social interactions. We also feel that there is an inconsistency in Grafen's characterization of the solution of his maximization program by use of inclusive fitness arguments. His results are in conflict with those on evolutionary stable strategies obtained by applying inclusive fitness theory, and can be repaired only by changing the definition of the problem.