993 resultados para Probabilistic methods
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The present research deals with an important public health threat, which is the pollution created by radon gas accumulation inside dwellings. The spatial modeling of indoor radon in Switzerland is particularly complex and challenging because of many influencing factors that should be taken into account. Indoor radon data analysis must be addressed from both a statistical and a spatial point of view. As a multivariate process, it was important at first to define the influence of each factor. In particular, it was important to define the influence of geology as being closely associated to indoor radon. This association was indeed observed for the Swiss data but not probed to be the sole determinant for the spatial modeling. The statistical analysis of data, both at univariate and multivariate level, was followed by an exploratory spatial analysis. Many tools proposed in the literature were tested and adapted, including fractality, declustering and moving windows methods. The use of Quan-tité Morisita Index (QMI) as a procedure to evaluate data clustering in function of the radon level was proposed. The existing methods of declustering were revised and applied in an attempt to approach the global histogram parameters. The exploratory phase comes along with the definition of multiple scales of interest for indoor radon mapping in Switzerland. The analysis was done with a top-to-down resolution approach, from regional to local lev¬els in order to find the appropriate scales for modeling. In this sense, data partition was optimized in order to cope with stationary conditions of geostatistical models. Common methods of spatial modeling such as Κ Nearest Neighbors (KNN), variography and General Regression Neural Networks (GRNN) were proposed as exploratory tools. In the following section, different spatial interpolation methods were applied for a par-ticular dataset. A bottom to top method complexity approach was adopted and the results were analyzed together in order to find common definitions of continuity and neighborhood parameters. Additionally, a data filter based on cross-validation was tested with the purpose of reducing noise at local scale (the CVMF). At the end of the chapter, a series of test for data consistency and methods robustness were performed. This lead to conclude about the importance of data splitting and the limitation of generalization methods for reproducing statistical distributions. The last section was dedicated to modeling methods with probabilistic interpretations. Data transformation and simulations thus allowed the use of multigaussian models and helped take the indoor radon pollution data uncertainty into consideration. The catego-rization transform was presented as a solution for extreme values modeling through clas-sification. Simulation scenarios were proposed, including an alternative proposal for the reproduction of the global histogram based on the sampling domain. The sequential Gaussian simulation (SGS) was presented as the method giving the most complete information, while classification performed in a more robust way. An error measure was defined in relation to the decision function for data classification hardening. Within the classification methods, probabilistic neural networks (PNN) show to be better adapted for modeling of high threshold categorization and for automation. Support vector machines (SVM) on the contrary performed well under balanced category conditions. In general, it was concluded that a particular prediction or estimation method is not better under all conditions of scale and neighborhood definitions. Simulations should be the basis, while other methods can provide complementary information to accomplish an efficient indoor radon decision making.
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The need for upgrading a large number of understrength and obsolete bridges in the United States has been well documented in the literature. Through the performance of several Iowa DOT projects, the concept of strengthening bridges (simple and continuous spans) by post-tensioning has been developed. The purpose of this project was to investigate two additional strengthening alternatives that may be more efficient than post-tensioning in certain situations. The research program for each strengthening scheme included a literature review, laboratory testing of the strengthening scheme, and a finite-element analysis of the scheme. For clarity the two strengthening schemes are presented separately. In Part 1 of this report, the strengthening of existing steel stringers in composite steel beam concrete-deck bridges by providing partial end restraint was shown to be feasible. Part 2 of this report summarizes the research that was undertaken to strengthen the negative moment regions of continuous, composite bridges. Two schemes were investigated: post-compression of stringers and superimposed trusses within the stringers.
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Soil slope instability concerning highway infrastructure is an ongoing problem in Iowa, as slope failures endanger public safety and continue to result in costly repair work. Characterization of slope failures is complicated, because the factors affecting slope stability can be difficult to discern and measure, particularly soil shear strength parameters. While in the past extensive research has been conducted on slope stability investigations and analysis, this research consists of field investigations addressing both the characterization and reinforcement of such slope failures. The current research focuses on applying an infrequently-used testing technique comprised of the Borehole Shear Test (BST). This in-situ test rapidly provides effective (i.e., drained) shear strength parameter values of soil. Using the BST device, fifteen Iowa slopes (fourteen failures and one proposed slope) were investigated and documented. Particular attention was paid to highly weathered shale and glacial till soil deposits, which have both been associated with slope failures in the southern Iowa drift region. Conventional laboratory tests including direct shear tests, triaxial compression tests, and ring shear tests were also performed on undisturbed and reconstituted soil samples to supplement BST results. The shear strength measurements were incorporated into complete evaluations of slope stability using both limit equilibrium and probabilistic analyses. The research methods and findings of these investigations are summarized in Volume 1 of this report. Research details of the independent characterization and reinforcement investigations are provided in Volumes 2 and 3, respectively. Combined, the field investigations offer guidance on identifying the factors that affect slope stability at a particular location and also on designing slope reinforcement using pile elements for cases where remedial measures are necessary. The research findings are expected to benefit civil and geotechnical engineers of government transportation agencies, consultants, and contractors dealing with slope stability, slope remediation, and geotechnical testing in Iowa.
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Soil slope instability concerning highway infrastructure is an ongoing problem in Iowa, as slope failures endanger public safety and continue to result in costly repair work. While in the past extensive research has been conducted on slope stability investigations and analysis, this current research study consists of field investigations addressing both the characterization and reinforcement of such slope failures. While Volume I summarizes the research methods and findings of this study, Volume II provides procedural details for incorporating an infrequently-used testing technique, borehole shear tests, into practice. Fifteen slopes along Iowa highways were investigated, including thirteen slides (failed slopes), one unfailed slope, and one proposed embankment slope (the Sugar Creek Project). The slopes are mainly comprised of either clay shale or glacial till, and are generally gentle and of small scale, with slope angle ranging from 11 deg to 23 deg and height ranging from 6 to 23 m. Extensive field investigations and laboratory tests were performed for each slope. Field investigations included survey of slope geometry, borehole drilling, soil sampling, in-situ Borehole Shear Testing (BST) and ground water table measurement. Laboratory investigations mainly comprised of ring shear tests, soil basic property tests (grain size analysis and Atterberg limits test), mineralogy analyses, soil classifications, and natural water contents and density measurements on the representative soil samples from each slope. Extensive direct shear tests and a few triaxial compression tests and unconfined compression tests were also performed on undisturbed soil samples for the Sugar Creek Project. Based on the results of field and lab investigations, slope stability analysis was performed on each of the slopes to determine the possible factors resulting in the slope failures or to evaluate the potential slope instabilities using limit equilibrium methods. Deterministic slope analyses were performed for all the slopes. Probabilistic slope analysis and sensitivity study were also performed for the slope of the Sugar Creek Project. Results indicate that while the in-situ test rapidly provides effective shear strength parameters of soils, some training may be required for effective and appropriate use of the BST. Also, it is primarily intended to test cohesive soils and can produce erroneous results in gravelly soils. Additionally, the quality of boreholes affects test results, and disturbance to borehole walls should be minimized before test performance. A final limitation of widespread borehole shear testing may be its limited availability, as only about four to six test devices are currently being used in Iowa. Based on the data gathered in the field testing, reinforcement investigations are continued in Volume III.
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As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).
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AASHTO has a standard test method for determining the specific gravity of aggregates. The people in the Aggregate Section of the Central Materials Laboratory perform the AASHTO T-85 test for AMRL inspections and reference samples. Iowa's test method 201B, for specific gravity determinations, requires more time and more care to perform than the AASHTO procedure. The major difference between the two procedures is that T-85 requires the sample to be weighed in water and 201B requires the 2 quart pycnometer jar. Efficiency in the Central Laboratory would be increased if the AASHTO procedure for coarse aggregate specific gravity determinations was adopted. The questions to be answered were: (1) Do the two procedures yield the same test results? (2) Do the two procedures yield the same precision? An experiment was conducted to study the different test methods. From the experimental results, specific gravity determinations by AASHTO T-85 method were found to correlate to those obtained by the Iowa 201B method with an R-squared value of 0.99. The absorption values correlated with an R-squared value of 0.98. The single operator precision was equivalent for the two methods. Hence, this procedure was recommended to be adopted in the Central Laboratory.
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Most states, including Iowa, have a significant number of substandard bridges. This number will increase significantly unless some type of preventative maintenance is employed. Both the Iowa Department of Transportation and Iowa counties have successfully employed numerous maintenance, repair and rehabilitation (MR&R) strategies for correcting various types of deficiencies. However, successfully employed MR&R procedures are often not systematically documented or defined for those involved in bridge maintenance. This study addressed the need for a standard bridge MR&R manual for Iowa with emphasis for secondary road applications. As part of the study, bridge MR&R activities that are relevant to the state of Iowa have been systematically categorized into a manual, in a standardized format. Where pertinent, design guidelines have been presented. Material presented in this manual is divided into two major categories: 1) Repair and Rehabilitation of Bridge Superstructure Components, and 2) Repair and Rehabilitation of Bridge Substructure Components. There are multiple subcategories within both major categories that provide detailed information. Some of the detailed information includes step-by-step procedures for accomplishing MR&R activities, material specifications and detailed drawings where available. The source of information contained in the manual is public domain technical literature and information provided by Iowa County Engineers. A questionnaire was sent to all 99 counties in Iowa to solicit information and the research team personally solicited input from many Iowa counties as a follow-up to the questionnaire.
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This report is formatted to independently present four individual investigations related to similar web gap fatigue problems. Multiple steel girder bridges commonly exhibit fatigue cracking due to out-of-plane displacement of the web near the diaphragm connections. This fatigue-prone web gap area is typically located in negative moment regions of the girders where the diaphragm stiffener is not attached to the top flange. In the past, the Iowa Department of Transportation has attempted to stop fatigue crack propagation in these steel girder bridges by drilling holes at the crack tips. Other nondestructive retrofits have been tried; in a particular case on a two-girder bridge with floor beams, angles were bolted between the stiffener and top flange. The bolted angle retrofit has failed in the past and may not be a viable solution for diaphragm bridges. The drilled hole retrofit is often only a temporary solution, so a more permanent and effective retrofit is required. A new field retrofit has been developed that involves loosening the bolts in the connection between the diaphragm and the girders. Research on the retrofit has been initiated; however, no long-term studies of the effects of bolt loosening have been performed. The intent of this research is to study the short-term effects of the bolt loosening retrofit on I-beam and channel diaphragm bridges. The research also addressed the development of a continuous remote monitoring system to investigate the bolt loosening retrofit on an X-type diaphragm bridge over a number of months, ensuring that the measured strain and displacement reductions are not affected by time and continuous traffic loading on the bridge. The testing for the first three investigations is based on instrumentation of web gaps in a negative moment region on Iowa Department of Transportation bridges with I-beam, channel, and X-type diaphragms. One bridge of each type was instrumented with strain gages and deflection transducers. Field tests, using loaded trucks of known weight and configuration, were conducted on the bridges with the bolts in the tight condition and after implementing the bolt loosening retrofit to measure the effects of loosening the diaphragm bolts. Long-term data were also collected on the X-diaphragm bridge by a data acquisition system that collected the data continuously under ambient truck loading. The collected data were retrievable by an off-site modem connection to the remote data acquisition system. The data collection features and ruggedness of this system for remote bridge monitoring make it viable as a pilot system for future monitoring projects in Iowa. Results indicate that loosening the diaphragm bolts reduces strain and out-of-plane displacement in the web gap, and that the reduction is not affected over time by traffic or environmental loading on the bridge. Reducing the strain in the web gap allows the bridge to support more cycles of loading before experiencing fatigue, thus increase the service life of the bridge. Two-girder floor beam bridges may also exhibit fatigue cracking in girder webs.
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A digitized image method was compared with a standard washing technique for measuring citrus roots in the field. Video pictures of roots were taken in a soil profile. The profile area analyzed was defined by iron rings, which were also used to remove the roots to determine their dry weight. The roots presented in the pictures were quantified using SIARCS software developed by Embrapa. The root length and area determined by digital images provided a good estimate of root quantity present in the profile.
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