824 resultados para Probabilistic decision process model
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The aim of this study was to model the process of development for an Online Learning Resource (OLR) by Health Care Professionals (HCPs) to meet lymphoedema-related educational needs, within an asset-based management context. Previous research has shown that HCPs have unmet educational needs in relation to lymphoedema but details on their specific nature or context were lacking. Against this background, the study was conducted in two distinct but complementary phases. In Phase 1, a national survey was conducted of HCPs predominantly in community, oncology and palliative care services, followed by focus group discussions with a sample of respondents. In Phase 2, lymphoedema specialists (LSs) used an action research approach to design and implement an OLR to meet the needs identified in Phase 1. Study findings were analysed using descriptive statistics (Phase 1), and framework, thematic and dialectic analysis to explore their potential to inform future service development and education theory. Unmet educational need was found to be specific to health care setting and professional group. These resulted in HCPs feeling poorly-equipped to diagnose and manage lymphoedema. Of concern, when identified, lymphoedema was sometimes buried for fear of overwhelming stretched services. An OLR was identified as a means of addressing the unmet educational needs. This was successfully developed and implemented with minimal additional resources. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. This doctoral research makes a timely contribution to leadership theory since the resource constraints underpinning much of the contribution has salience to current public services. The process model created has the potential to inform contemporary leadership theory in asset-based management contexts. Further study of a leadership style which incorporates cognisance of Cognitive Load Theory and Self-Determination Theory is suggested. In addition, the detailed reporting of process and how this facilitated learning for participants contributes to workplace education theory
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O presente projeto de Mestrado assenta no estudo dos principais fatores motivacionais na compra de livros de ficção, aprofundando a dicotomia uso próprio versus oferta, englobando duas perspetivas complementares: a sustentação bibliográfica e uma pesquisa quantitativa que foi concretizada através da distribuição de um inquérito por questionário, em formato digital, que permitiu obter 487 respostas válidas e completas. Os dados obtidos foram tratados no SPSS (Statistical Package for the Social Sciences), utilizando análises descritivas, que foram complementadas com técnicas de inferência estatística. Os resultados permitiram concluir que, apesar de homens e mulheres oferecerem um número idêntico de livros, as mulheres compram e leem mais. Além disso, cerca de um terço dos livros comprados destina-se a oferta. Ficou ainda provado que a interação com os autores nas redes sociais apresenta uma associação positiva com a importância atribuida a esse fator na hora de comprar o(s) livro(s). As mulheres são mais sensíveis às “Políticas de Marketing” (Atendimento Personalizado; Facilidade de Pagamento; Local com Cartão de Fidelização; Preços e Descontos; Elevada quantidade de livros), enquanto critérios de seleção do local de compra. Importa referir que a compra é concretizada de forma menos impulsiva quando o livro é para oferta. Os atributos da capa mais relevantes no processo de decisão de compra são o “Título” e a “Sinopse”. Contudo, os diferentes fatores da capa estudados não apresentam diferenças significativas na compra para uso próprio comparativamente à oferta, no que respeita à sua importância. “Autores com prémios literários” e “Nobel” e “Ser uma novidade” (livro) são outros fatores (não da capa) que apresentam diferenças significativas favoráveis à compra para oferta. Por outro lado, “Recomendação de Amigos e Familiares” e “Presença/Ligação/Interação com o Autor nas redes sociais” são mais favoráveis à compra para uso próprio. As conclusões são relevantes para enquadrar as preferências dos consumidores, possibilitando aos profissionais do marketing algumas referências para definir estratégias que respondam às suas necessidades e ambições. Além disso, ao explorar a dimensão dos submercados (Uso próprio versus Oferta), será possível ir ao encontro das exigências dos compradores, tornando a subjetividade da aquisição/utilização numa ferramenta eficaz da própria idealização e personalização dos livros, permitindo conceber e implementar ideias empreendedoras que visem estimular a compra e, consequentemente, melhorar os hábitos de leitura de todos os portugueses.
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The Atlantic Water (AW) layer in the Arctic Basin is isolated from the atmosphere by the overlaying surface layer, yet observations have revealed that the velocities in this layer exhibit significant variations. Here analysis of a global ocean/sea ice model hindcast, complemented by experiments performed with an idealized process model, is used to investigate what controls the variability of AW circulation, with a focus on the role of wind forcing. The AW circulation carries the imprint of wind variations, both remotely over the Nordic and Barents Seas where they force the AW inflow variability, and locally over the Arctic Basin through the forcing of the wind-driven Beaufort Gyre, which modulates and transfers the wind variability to the AW layer. The strong interplay between the circulation within the surface and AW layers suggests that both layers must be considered to understand variability in either.
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The incredible rapid development to huge volumes of air travel, mainly because of jet airliners that appeared to the sky in the 1950s, created the need for systematic research for aviation safety and collecting data about air traffic. The structured data can be analysed easily using queries from databases and running theseresults through graphic tools. However, in analysing narratives that often give more accurate information about the case, mining tools are needed. The analysis of textual data with computers has not been possible until data mining tools have been developed. Their use, at least among aviation, is still at a moderate level. The research aims at discovering lethal trends in the flight safety reports. The narratives of 1,200 flight safety reports from years 1994 – 1996 in Finnish were processed with three text mining tools. One of them was totally language independent, the other had a specific configuration for Finnish and the third originally created for English, but encouraging results had been achieved with Spanish and that is why a Finnish test was undertaken, too. The global rate of accidents is stabilising and the situation can now be regarded as satisfactory, but because of the growth in air traffic, the absolute number of fatal accidents per year might increase, if the flight safety will not be improved. The collection of data and reporting systems have reached their top level. The focal point in increasing the flight safety is analysis. The air traffic has generally been forecasted to grow 5 – 6 per cent annually over the next two decades. During this period, the global air travel will probably double also with relatively conservative expectations of economic growth. This development makes the airline management confront growing pressure due to increasing competition, signify cant rise in fuel prices and the need to reduce the incident rate due to expected growth in air traffic volumes. All this emphasises the urgent need for new tools and methods. All systems provided encouraging results, as well as proved challenges still to be won. Flight safety can be improved through the development and utilisation of sophisticated analysis tools and methods, like data mining, using its results supporting the decision process of the executives.
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This study examines the complex hotel buyer decision process in front of the tourism distribution channels. Its objective is to describe the influence level of the tourism marketing intermediaries, mainly the travel agents and tour operators, over the hotel decision process by the buyer-tourist. The data collection process was done trough a survey with three hundred brazilian tourists hosted in nineteen hotels of Natal, capital of Rio Grande do Norte, Brazil. The data analysis was done using some multivariate statistic techniques as correlation analysis, multiple regression analysis, factor analysis and multiple discriminant analysis. The research characterizes the hotel services consumers profile and his trip, and identifying the distribution channels used by them. Furthermore, the research verifies the intermediaries influence exercised over hotel buyer decision process, looking for identify causality relations between the influence level and the buyer profile. Verifies that information about hotels available on internet reduces the probability that this influence can be practiced; however it was possible identifying those consumers considers this information complementary and non-substitutes than the information from intermediaries. The characteristics of the data do not allow indentifying the factors that constraint the intermediaries influence neither identifying discriminant functions of the specific distribution channel choice by consumers. The study concludes that consumers don t agree in have been influenced by intermediaries or don t know if they have, still considering important to consult them and internet doesn t substitute their function as information source
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Em plena quarta revolução industrial, todas as industrias se estão a transformar para se ajustar aos novos paradigmas de relação com os clientes, altamente influenciados pelos pioneiros digitais como a Uber, Netflix ou Amazon, porém no setor financeiro há desafios acrescidos, pois os clientes esperam juntar essas expectativas digitais com a manutenção da iteração humana, enquanto, do lados bancos, em simultâneo, necessitam de recuperar da crise da dívida soberana que impôs necessidades de ajustamento dos balanços. O momento de desenvolvimento tecnológico potenciado pelo forte crescimento do acesso à internet em mobilidade traz novos hábitos e expectativas na relação com as entidades, com dispositivos cada vez mais potentes a cada vez menor custo, o que criou a oportunidade perfeita para o surgimento de startups tecnológicas dispostas a transformar os modelos de negócio de intermediação clássica, dando origem, no setor financeiro, às fintechs – empresas de base tecnológica dedicadas à prestação de serviços financeiros - impondo uma disrupção na industria financeira, com destaque para mercados como os EUA e Reino Unido. Olhando aos últimos cinco anos do setor financeiro, será muito difícil antecipar como estará o setor financeiro dentro de cinco anos, mas sabemos que estará seguramente muito diferente do que conhecemos hoje, por esse fato este trabalho é assente essencialmente em referências bibliográficas dos últimos 5 anos, tendo sido feito utilizados estudos de investigação de empresas e documentos académicos para a caracterização do setor neste contexto de inovação permanente e em que medida este processo de “digitalização” do setor financeiro influencia a propensão dos clientes na contratação de mais produtos e serviços, sendo esse um fator central para os bancos em Portugal recuperarem economicamente. É também analisada a dimensão seguida pelas instituições de regulação e supervisão do setor financeiro com vista a potenciar a concorrência e inovação do setor financeiro, enquanto mantém a garantia de segurança, confiança e controlo de risco sistémico. É bastante escassa a literatura disponível para caracterizar a banca em Portugal numa ótica de inovação e transformação, porém este trabalho procura caracterizar o sistema financeiro português face à forma como está a responder aos desafios de transformação tecnológica e digital. Procurou-se estabelecer uma metodologia de investigação que permita caracterizar a perceção de valor acrescentado para os clientes da utilização de serviços digitais e em que medida estes se podem substituir aos balcões e à intervenção humana dos profissionais dos bancos, tendo-se concluído que estes dois elementos são ainda fatores centrais para os clientes.
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Part 7: Cyber-Physical Systems
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Parenting is a robust predictor of developmental outcomes among children with ADHD. Early parenting predicts the persistence and course of ADHD and comorbid problems above and beyond risk associated with shared genetic effects. Yet, on average, mothers of children with ADHD are less positive and more negative in their parent-child interactions compared to mothers of non-disordered children. Little is known about psychobiological markers which may be associated with individual variations in maternal parenting in families of children with ADHD. Neurobiological models of parenting suggest that maternal cortisol levels following a stressor may be positively associated with hostile and intrusive parenting; however, to date no studies have examined maternal cortisol reactivity and parenting in school-age, or clinical samples of, children. Mothers’ regulation of physiological stress responses may be particularly important for families of children with ADHD, as parenting a child with chronically challenging behaviors represents a persistent environmental stressor. The current study sought to extend the existing literature by providing an empirical examination of the relationship between maternal cortisol reactivity following two laboratory stressors and parenting among mothers of children with and without ADHD. It was hypothesized that child ADHD group would moderate the relationship between cortisol reactivity and self-reported and observed parenting. Greater total cortisol output and greater increase in cortisol during the TSST were associated with decreased positive parenting and increased negative and directive parenting, with the exception of parental involvement, which was associated with increased cortisol output during the TSST. Conversely, cortisol output during the PCI was associated with increased positive parenting, increased parental involvement, and decreased negative parenting. In contrast to the TSST, a greater decrease in cortisol during the PCI indicated more positive parenting and parental involvement. These associations were specific to mothers of children with ADHD, with the exception of maternal directiveness, which was specific to comparison mothers. Findings add to our understanding of physiological processes associated with maternal parenting and contribute to an integrative biological, psychological, and cognitive process model of parenting in families of children with ADHD.
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Dissertação de Mestrado, Gestão Empresarial, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Algarve, 2015
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Dissertação (mestrado)—Universidade de Brasília, Centro de Desenvolvimento Sustentável, 2014.
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Background: Rotavirus diarrhea is one of the most important causes of death among under-five children. Anti-rotavirus vaccination of these children may have a reducing effect on the disease. Objectives: this study is intended to contribute to health policy-makers of the country about the optimal decision and policy development in this area, by performing cost-effectiveness and cost-utility analysis on anti-rotavirus vaccination for under-5 children. Patients and Methods: A cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using a decision tree model to analyze rotavirus vaccination, which was compared with no vaccination with Iran’s ministry of health perspective in a 5-year time horizon. Epidemiological data were collected from published and unpublished sources. Four different assumptions were considered to the extent of the disease episode. To analyze costs, the costs of implementing the vaccination program were calculated with 98% coverage and the cost of USD 7 per dose. Medical and social costs of the disease were evaluated by sampling patients with rotavirus diarrhea, and sensitivity analysis was also performed for different episode rates and vaccine price per dose. Results: For the most optimistic assumption for the episode of illness (10.2 per year), the cost per DALY averted is 12,760 and 7,404 for RotaTeq and Rotarix vaccines, respectively, while assuming the episode of illness is 300%, they will be equal to 2,395 and 354, respectively, which will be highly cost-effective. Number of life-years gained is equal to 3,533 years. Conclusions: Assuming that the illness episodes are 100% and 300% for Rotarix and 300% for Rota Teq, the ratio of cost per DALY averted is highly cost-effective, based on the threshold of the world health organization (< 1 GDP per capita = 4526 USD). The implementation of a national rotavirus vaccination program is suggested.
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To stay competitive, many employers are looking for creative and innovative employees to add value to their organization. However, current models of job performance overlook creative performance as an important criterion to measure in the workplace. The purpose of this dissertation is to conduct two separate but related studies on creative performance that aim to provide support that creative performance should be included in models of job performance, and ultimately included in performance evaluations in organizations. Study 1 is a meta-analysis on the relationship between creative performance and task performance, and the relationship between creative performance and organizational citizenship behavior (OCB). Overall, I found support for a medium to large corrected correlation for both the creative performance-task performance (ρ = .51) and creative performance-OCB (ρ = .49) relationships. Further, I also found that both rating-source and study location were significant moderators. Study 2 is a process model that includes creative performance alongside task performance and OCB as the outcome variables. I test a model in which both individual differences (specifically: conscientiousness, extraversion, proactive personality, and self-efficacy) and job characteristics (autonomy, feedback, and supervisor support) predict creative performance, task performance, and OCB through engagement as a mediator. In a sample of 299 employed individuals, I found that all the individual differences and job characteristics were positively correlated with all three performance criteria. I also looked at these relationships in a multiple regression framework and most of the individual differences and job characteristics still predicted the performance criteria. In the mediation analyses, I found support for engagement as a significant mediator of the individual differences-performance and job characteristics-performance relationships. Taken together, Study 1 and Study 2 support the notion that creative performance should be included in models of job performance. Implications for both researchers and practitioners alike are discussed.^
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Perceived accessibility has been acknowledged as an important aspect of transport policy since the 70s. Nevertheless, very few empirical studies have been conducted in this field. When aiming to improve social inclusion, by making sus-tainable transport modes accessible to all, it is important to understand the factors driving perceived accessibility. Un-like conventional accessibility measures, perceived accessibility focuses on the perceived possibilities and ease of en-gaging in preferred activities using different transport modes. We define perceived accessibility in terms of how easy it is to live a satisfactory life with the help of the transport system, which is not necessarily the same thing as the objec-tive standard of the system. According to previous research, perceived accessibility varies with the subjectively-rated quality of the mode of transport. Thus, improvements in quality (e.g. trip planning, comfort, or safety) increase the per-ceived accessibility and make life easier to live using the chosen mode of transport. This study (n=750) focuses on the perceived accessibility of public transport, captured using the Perceived Accessibility Scale PAC (Lättman, Olsson, & Fri-man, 2015). More specifically, this study aims to determine how level of quality affects the perceived accessibility in public transport. A Conditional Process Model shows that, in addition to quality, feeling safe and frequency of travel are important predictors of perceived accessibility. Furthermore, elderly and those in their thirties report a lower level of perceived accessibility to their day-to-day activities using public transport. The basic premise of this study is that sub-jective experiences may be as important as objective indicators when planning and designing for socially inclusive transport systems.
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Résumé : Contexte: Les maladies cardiovasculaires (MCV) sont un enjeu contemporain de santé publique. Or, des recherches cliniques démontrent que certaines interventions sont efficaces dans leur traitement et prévention. Il s’agit d’interventions nutritionnelles éducatives priorisant des aliments végétaux minimalement transformés (VMT). Ces interventions promeuvent l’adoption de postures alimentaires se caractérisant par la consommation à volonté d’une grande variété d’aliments d’origine végétale (e.g. légumineuses, céréales entières, fruits, légumes) et par une diminution de la consommation d’aliments d’origine animale (e.g. viandes, œufs et produits laitiers) et ultra-transformés (e.g. riches en sucres, sel ou gras, et faibles en fibres). Objectifs: À l’aide d’un devis mixte concomitant imbriqué, nous avons évalué les effets d’un programme d’interventions éducatives visant à augmenter la consommation de VMT chez des adultes à risque de MCV et exploré les déterminants des modifications comportementales observées. Méthodologie : Divers paramètres physiologiques et anthropométriques ont été mesurés pré-post programme (n = 72) puis analysés avec un test t pour échantillons appariés ou un test signé des rangs de Wilcoxon. D’autre part, 10 entretiens semi-dirigés ont été réalisés post-programme et soutenus par un guide d’entretien basé sur le Food Choice Process Model. Les verbatims intégraux ont été codés selon la méthode d’analyse thématique. Résultats : Après 12 semaines, le poids (-10,5 lb, IC 95 %: 9,0-12,0), le tour de taille (-7,4 cm, IC 95 %:6,5-8,4), la tension artérielle diastolique (-3,2 mmHg, IC 95 %: 0,1-6,3), le cholestérol total (-0,87 mmol/ L, IC 95 %:0,57-1,17), le cholestérol LDL (-0,84 mmol/ L, IC 95 %: 0,55-1,13) et l’hémoglobine glyquée (-1,32 %, IC 95 %:-0,17-2,80) se sont significativement améliorés. L’analyse thématique des données qualitatives révèle que le programme, par la stimulation de valeurs de santé, d’éthique et d’intégrité, favorise la transformation des choix alimentaires vers une posture davantage axée sur les VMT durant une période clé du parcours de vie (i.e. pré-retraite). D’autres déterminants pouvant favoriser l’adoption d’une alimentation VMT ont été identifiés, dont les bénéfices importants observables à court terme, l’absence de restriction à l’égard de la quantité d’aliments VMT et le développement de compétences de planification dans l’acquisition et la préparation des aliments. Conclusion : Une intervention priorisant les VMT permet d’améliorer le profil cardiométabolique d’individus pré-retraités en raison de ses caractéristiques intrinsèques, mais aussi parce qu’elle modifie les valeurs impliquées dans les choix alimentaires.