Mentoring first-year pre-service teachers of primary science

Twenty-nine first-year pre-service teachers' perceptions of mentoring and primary science teaching were collected through a literature-based survey. Frequencies, means, and standard deviations of these responses provided data for analysis on these mentoring practices. Results indicated that even though mentors may provide feedback, the majority of mentors do not provide specific primary science mentoring in the areas of pedagogical knowledge, system requirements, and the modeling of teaching practice. It appears that the mentor's personal attributes may also influence the quality of mentoring. There were tentative conclusions that first-year pre-service teachers may not have strong beliefs about specific primary science mentoring practices, and possibly because of inexperience, may not be critical enough to analyse their mentoring in primary science teaching. Identifying specific mentoring for developing primary science teaching may assist mentors in their practices with pre-service teachers.

Multiple primary cancers associated with Merkel cell carcinoma in Queensland, Australia, 1982-2011

The relatively high incidence of Merkel cell carcinoma (MCC) in Queensland provides a valuable opportunity to examine links with other cancers. A retrospective cohort study was performed using data from the Queensland Cancer Registry. Standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) were used to approximate the relative risk of being diagnosed with another primary cancer either following or prior to MCC. Patients with an eligible first primary MCC (n=787) had more than double the expected number of subsequent primary cancers (SIR=2.19, 95% confidence interval (CI)=1.84–2.60; P<0.001). Conversely, people who were initially diagnosed with cancers other than MCC were about two and a half times more likely to have a subsequent primary MCC (n=244) compared with the general population (SIR=2.69, 95% CI=2.36–3.05; P<0.001). Significantly increased bi-directional relative risks were found for melanoma, lip cancer, head and neck cancer, lung cancer, myelodysplastic diseases, and cancer with unknown primary site. In addition, risks were elevated for female breast cancer and kidney cancer following a first primary MCC, and for subsequent MCCs following first primary colorectal cancer, prostate cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, or lymphoid leukemia. These results suggest that several shared pathways are likely for MCC and other cancers, including immunosuppression, UV radiation, and genetics.

How serious are they? The use of data linkage to explore different definitions of serious road crash injuries

Over recent years, the focus in road safety has shifted towards a greater understanding of road crash serious injuries in addition to fatalities. Police reported crash data are often the primary source of crash information; however, the definition of serious injury within these data is not consistent across jurisdictions and may not be accurately operationalised. This study examined the linkage of police-reported road crash data with hospital data to explore the potential for linked data to enhance the quantification of serious injury. Data from the Queensland Road Crash Database (QRCD), the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection (QHAPDC), Emergency Department Information System (EDIS), and the Queensland Injury Surveillance Unit (QISU) for the year 2009 were linked. Nine different estimates of serious road crash injury were produced. Results showed that there was a large amount of variation in the estimates of the number and profile of serious road crash injuries depending on the definition or measure used. The results also showed that as the definition of serious injury becomes more precise the vulnerable road users become more prominent. These results have major implications in terms of how serious injuries are identified for reporting purposes. Depending on the definitions used, the calculation of cost and understanding of the impact of serious injuries would vary greatly. This study has shown how data linkage can be used to investigate issues of data quality. It has also demonstrated the potential improvements to the understanding of the road safety problem, particularly serious injury, by conducting data linkage.

Denoising neural data with state-space smoothing: Method and application

Neural data are inevitably contaminated by noise. When such noisy data are subjected to statistical analysis, misleading conclusions can be reached. Here we attempt to address this problem by applying a state-space smoothing method, based on the combined use of the Kalman filter theory and the Expectation–Maximization algorithm, to denoise two datasets of local field potentials recorded from monkeys performing a visuomotor task. For the first dataset, it was found that the analysis of the high gamma band (60–90 Hz) neural activity in the prefrontal cortex is highly susceptible to the effect of noise, and denoising leads to markedly improved results that were physiologically interpretable. For the second dataset, Granger causality between primary motor and primary somatosensory cortices was not consistent across two monkeys and the effect of noise was suspected. After denoising, the discrepancy between the two subjects was significantly reduced.

Secondary attribute retrieval using tree data structures

Several techniques are known for searching an ordered collection of data. The techniques and analyses of retrieval methods based on primary attributes are straightforward. Retrieval using secondary attributes depends on several factors. For secondary attribute retrieval, the linear structures—inverted lists, multilists, doubly linked lists—and the recently proposed nonlinear tree structures—multiple attribute tree (MAT), K-d tree (kdT)—have their individual merits. It is shown in this paper that, of the two tree structures, MAT possesses several features of a systematic data structure for external file organisation which make it superior to kdT. Analytic estimates for the complexity of node searchers, in MAT and kdT for several types of queries, are developed and compared.

A new data source for fisheries resource assessment: genetic estimates of the effective number of spawners. Final Report to the Fisheries Research and Development Corporation.

The development of innovative methods of stock assessment is a priority for State and Commonwealth fisheries agencies. It is driven by the need to facilitate sustainable exploitation of naturally occurring fisheries resources for the current and future economic, social and environmental well being of Australia. This project was initiated in this context and took advantage of considerable recent achievements in genomics that are shaping our comprehension of the DNA of humans and animals. The basic idea behind this project was that genetic estimates of effective population size, which can be made from empirical measurements of genetic drift, were equivalent to estimates of the successful number of spawners that is an important parameter in process of fisheries stock assessment. The broad objectives of this study were to 1. Critically evaluate a variety of mathematical methods of calculating effective spawner numbers (Ne) by a. conducting comprehensive computer simulations, and by b. analysis of empirical data collected from the Moreton Bay population of tiger prawns (P. esculentus). 2. Lay the groundwork for the application of the technology in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). 3. Produce software for the calculation of Ne, and to make it widely available. The project pulled together a range of mathematical models for estimating current effective population size from diverse sources. Some of them had been recently implemented with the latest statistical methods (eg. Bayesian framework Berthier, Beaumont et al. 2002), while others had lower profiles (eg. Pudovkin, Zaykin et al. 1996; Rousset and Raymond 1995). Computer code and later software with a user-friendly interface (NeEstimator) was produced to implement the methods. This was used as a basis for simulation experiments to evaluate the performance of the methods with an individual-based model of a prawn population. Following the guidelines suggested by computer simulations, the tiger prawn population in Moreton Bay (south-east Queensland) was sampled for genetic analysis with eight microsatellite loci in three successive spring spawning seasons in 2001, 2002 and 2003. As predicted by the simulations, the estimates had non-infinite upper confidence limits, which is a major achievement for the application of the method to a naturally-occurring, short generation, highly fecund invertebrate species. The genetic estimate of the number of successful spawners was around 1000 individuals in two consecutive years. This contrasts with about 500,000 prawns participating in spawning. It is not possible to distinguish successful from non-successful spawners so we suggest a high level of protection for the entire spawning population. We interpret the difference in numbers between successful and non-successful spawners as a large variation in the number of offspring per family that survive – a large number of families have no surviving offspring, while a few have a large number. We explored various ways in which Ne can be useful in fisheries management. It can be a surrogate for spawning population size, assuming the ratio between Ne and spawning population size has been previously calculated for that species. Alternatively, it can be a surrogate for recruitment, again assuming that the ratio between Ne and recruitment has been previously determined. The number of species that can be analysed in this way, however, is likely to be small because of species-specific life history requirements that need to be satisfied for accuracy. The most universal approach would be to integrate Ne with spawning stock-recruitment models, so that these models are more accurate when applied to fisheries populations. A pathway to achieve this was established in this project, which we predict will significantly improve fisheries sustainability in the future. Regardless of the success of integrating Ne into spawning stock-recruitment models, Ne could be used as a fisheries monitoring tool. Declines in spawning stock size or increases in natural or harvest mortality would be reflected by a decline in Ne. This would be good for data-poor fisheries and provides fishery independent information, however, we suggest a species-by-species approach. Some species may be too numerous or experiencing too much migration for the method to work. During the project two important theoretical studies of the simultaneous estimation of effective population size and migration were published (Vitalis and Couvet 2001b; Wang and Whitlock 2003). These methods, combined with collection of preliminary genetic data from the tiger prawn population in southern Gulf of Carpentaria population and a computer simulation study that evaluated the effect of differing reproductive strategies on genetic estimates, suggest that this technology could make an important contribution to the stock assessment process in the northern prawn fishery (NPF). Advances in the genomics world are rapid and already a cheaper, more reliable substitute for microsatellite loci in this technology is available. Digital data from single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) are likely to super cede ‘analogue’ microsatellite data, making it cheaper and easier to apply the method to species with large population sizes.

School and choice : Anethnography of a primary school with bilingual classes

Based on a one-year ethnographic study of a primary school in Finland with specialised classes in Finnish and English (referred to as bilingual classes by research participants), this research traces patterns of how nationed, raced, classed and gendered differences are produced and gain meaning in school. I examine several aspects of these differences: the ways the teachers and parents make sense of school and of school choice; the repertoires of self put forward by teachers, parents and pupils of the bilingual classes; and the insitutional and classroom practices in Sunny Lane School (pseudonym). My purpose is to examine how the construction of differentness is related to the policy of school choice. I approach this questions from a knowledge problematic, and explore connections and disjunctions between the interpretations of teachers and those of parents, as well as between what teachers and parents expressed or said and the practices they engaged in. My data consists of fieldnotes generated through a one-year period of ethnographic study in Sunny Lane School, and of ethnographic interviews with teachers and parents primarily of the bilingual classes. This data focuses on the initial stages of the bilingual classes, which included the application and testing processes for these classes, and on Grades 1─3. In my analysis, I pursue poststructural feminist theorisations on questions of knowledge, power and subjectivity, which foreground an understanding of the constitutive force of discourse and the performative, partial, and relational nature of knowledge. I begin by situating my ethnographic field in relation to wider developments, namely, the emergence of school choice and the rhetoric of curricular reform and language education in Finland. I move on from there to ask how teachers discuss the introduction of these specialised classes, then trace pupils paths to these classes, their parents goals related to school choice, teachers constructions of the pupils and parents of bilingual classes, and how these shape the ways in which school and classroom practices unfold. School choice, I argue, functioned as a spatial practice, defining who belongs in school and demarcating the position of teachers, parents and pupils in school. Notions of classed and ethnicised differences entered the ways teachers and parents made sense of school choice. Teachers idealised school in terms of social cohesiveness and constructed social cohesion as a task for school to perform. The hopes parents iterated were connected to ensuring their children s futurity, to their perceptions of the advantages of fluency in English, but also to the differences they believed to exist between the social milieus of different schools. Ideals such as openmindedness and cosmopolitanism were also articulated by parents, and these ideals assumed different content for ethnic majority and minority parents. Teachers discussed the introduction of bilingual classes as being a means to ensure the school s future, and emphasised bilingual classes as fitting into the rubric of Finnish comprehensive schooling which, they maintained, is committed to equality. Parents were expected to accommodate their views and adopt the position of the responsible, supportive parent that was suggested to them by teachers. Teachers assumed a posture teachers of appreciating different cultures, while maintaining Finnishness as common ground in school. Discussion on pupils knowledge and experience of other countries took place often in bilingual classes, and various cultural theme events were organized on occasion. In school, pupils are taught to identify themselves in terms of cultural belonging. The rhetoric promoted by teachers was one of inclusiveness, which was also applied to describe the task of qualifying pupils for bilingual classes, qualifying which pupils can belong. Bilingual classes were idealised as taking a neutral, impartial posture toward difference by ethnic majority teachers and parents, and the relationship of school choice to classed advantage, for example, was something teachers, as well as parents, preferred not to discuss. Pupils were addressed by teachers during lessons in ways that assumed self responsibility and diligence, and they assumed the discursive category of being good, competent pupils made available to them. While this allowed them to position themselves favourably in school, their participation in a bilingual class was marked by the pressure to succeed well in school.

Soliciting additional concerns in the primary care consultation and the utility of a brief communication intervention to aid solicitation: A qualitative study

Objective To investigate the perspectives of general practitioners (GPs) on the practice of soliciting additional concerns (ACs) and the acceptability and utility of two brief interventions (prompts) designed to aid the solicitation. Methods Eighteen GPs participating in a feasibility randomised controlled trial were interviewed. Interviews were semi-structured and audio-recorded. Data were analysed using a Framework Approach. Results Participants perceived eliciting ACs as important for: reducing the need for multiple visits, identifying serious illness early, and increasing patient and GP satisfaction. GPs found the prompts easy to use and some continued their use after the study had ended to aid time management. Others noted similarities between the intervention and their usual practice. Nevertheless, soliciting ACs in every consultation was not unanimously supported. Conclusion The prompts were acceptable to GPs within a trial context, but there was disagreement as to whether ACs should be solicited routinely. Some GPs considered the intervention to aid their prioritisation efficiency within consultations. Practice implications Some GPs will find prompts which encourage ACs to be solicited early in the consultation enable them to better organise priorities and manage time-limited consultations more effectively.

Great Barrier Reef Fish Biological Data

Biological measurements on fish sampled during the course of FRDC funded project Growth, Reproduction and Recruitment of Great Barrier Reef Food Fish Stocks (FRDC 90/18). The comma-delimited ascii file comprises the following fields: 1. Cruise number 2. Date (d-m-y) 3, Region (descriptor of part of Queensland coast or Great Barrier Reef system) 4. Reef (name or number) 5. Data source (Res=research, Rec=recreational fisher, Com=commercial fisher) 6. Capture method 7. Trap number (where appropriate) 8. Species name 9. LthStd (standard length, cm) 10. LthFrk (fork length, cm) 11. LthTot (total length, cm) 12. WtTot (approx total weight, g; weighed at sea) 13. FrameWt (weight of frame [after filleting, with viscera], g; weighed in lab) 14. Sex (macroscopic examination only) 15. GonadWt (g) Data obtained by the Department Employment, Economic Development and Innovation (formerly Primary Industries and Fisheries) between 1988 and 1993, primarily in the southern Great Barrier Reef (Capricorn-Bunker and Swain Groups), with fish traps and handlining.

Raw data for project "Development of a DNA based aging technique for use in fisheries assessments" Fisheries and Development Corporation project 2007/033

The primary aim of this study was to determine the relationship between telomere length and age in a range of marine invertebrates including abalone (Haliotis spp) oysters (Saccostrea glomerata), spiny lobsters (Sagmariasus verreauxi formerly Jasus verreauxi and Jasus edwardsii) and school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi). Additionally, this relationship was studied in a vertebrate organism using the freshwater fish Silver perch (Bidyanus bidyanus). Telomere length differences between tissues were also examined in some species such as Saccostrea glomerata, Sagmariasus verreauxi and Bidyanus bidyanus. In some cases cultured specimens of known age were used and this is quoted in the spreadsheets. For other wild-caught specimens where age was not known, size was used as a proxy for age. This may be a broad size class, or be determined by shell size or carapace length depending on the organism. Each spreadsheet contains raw data of telomere length estimates from Terminal Restriction Fragment Assays (TRF) for various individuals of each species including appropriate details such as age or size and tissue. Telomere length estimates are given in base pairs (bp). In most cases replicate experiments were conducted on groups of samples three times but on a small number of occasions only two replicate experiments were conducted. Further description of the samples can be found in final report of FRDC 2007/033. The arithmetic average for each individual (sample ID) across the two or three replicate experiments is also given. Bidyanus bidyanus (SilverPerch) Two sheets are contained within. a) Comparison of telomere length between different tissues (heart, liver and muscle) within the three year old age class - two replicate experiments were conducted. b) Comparison of telomere length between fish of different but known ages (0.25, 1, 2, and 3 years old) in each of three tissues, heart, liver and muscle – three replicate experiments were conducted per tissue. Haliotis spp (Abalone species) Three species were tested. H. asinina Telomere length was compared in two age classes-11 month and 18 month old abalone using muscle tissue from the foot. Within gel-variation was also estimated using a single sample run three times on one gel (replicate experiment). H. laevigata x H. rubra hybrids Telomere length was compared in three known age classes – two, three and four years old using muscle tissue from the foot. H. rubra Telomere length was compared in a range of different sized abalone using muscle tissue from the foot. Shell size is also given for each abalone Saccostrea glomerata Three sheets are contained within the file. a) Samples came from Moreton Bay Queensland in 2007. Telomere length was compared in two tissues (gill and mantle) of oysters in three age groups (1, 3 and 4 years) b) Samples came from Moreton Bay Queensland in 2009. Telomere length was compared in three age classes using DNA from gill tissue only c) Samples came from Wallis Lake, New South Wales. Telomere length was estimated from whole body minus the shell from 1 year old oysters, gill tissue of 3 age classes (1.5 years, 3 and 4 years), mantle tissue of two age classes (3 and 4 years). Sagmariasus verreauxi (formerly Jasus verreauxi) Telomere length was estimated from abdomen tissue of puerulus, gill and muscle tissue of 3 year old, large and very large size classes of lobsters. Jasus edwardsii Telomere length was measured in two size classes of lobsters- adults of varying sizes using muscle tissue and puerulus using tissues from the abdomen minus the exoskeleton. Metapenaeus macleayi Telomere length was measured in three size classes of school prawns adults. Muscle tissue was used, minus the exoskeleton.

Genetic influences on handedness: data from 25,732 Australian and Dutch twin families

Handedness refers to a consistent asymmetry in skill or preferential use between the hands and is related to lateralization within the brain of other functions such as language. Previous twin studies of handedness have yielded inconsistent results resulting from a general lack of statistical power to find significant effects. Here we present analyses from a large international collaborative study of handedness (assessed by writing/drawing or self report) in Australian and Dutch twins and their siblings (54,270 individuals from 25,732 families). Maximum likelihood analyses incorporating the effects of known covariates (sex, year of birth and birth weight) revealed no evidence of hormonal transfer, mirror imaging or twin specific effects. There were also no differences in prevalence between zygosity groups or between twins and their singleton siblings. Consistent with previous meta-analyses, additive genetic effects accounted for about a quarter (23.64%) of the variance (95%CI 20.17, 27.09%) with the remainder accounted for by non-shared environmental influences. The implications of these findings for handedness both as a primary phenotype and as a covariate in linkage and association analyses are discussed.

Effect of exercise referral schemes in primary care on physical activity and improving health outcomes: Systematic review and meta-analysis

Objective To assess the impact of exercise referral schemes on physical activity and health outcomes. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cochrane Library, ISI Web of Science, SPORTDiscus, and ongoing trial registries up to October 2009. We also checked study references. Study selection - Design: randomised controlled trials or non-randomised controlled (cluster or individual) studies published in peer review journals. - Population: sedentary individuals with or without medical diagnosis. - Exercise referral schemes defined as: clear referrals by primary care professionals to third party service providers to increase physical activity or exercise, physical activity or exercise programmes tailored to individuals, and initial assessment and monitoring throughout programmes. - Comparators: usual care, no intervention, or alternative exercise referral schemes. Results Eight randomised controlled trials met the inclusion criteria, comparing exercise referral schemes with usual care (six trials), alternative physical activity intervention (two), and an exercise referral scheme plus a self determination theory intervention (one). Compared with usual care, follow-up data for exercise referral schemes showed an increased number of participants who achieved 90-150 minutes of physical activity of at least moderate intensity per week (pooled relative risk 1.16, 95% confidence intervals 1.03 to 1.30) and a reduced level of depression (pooled standardised mean difference −0.82, −1.28 to −0.35). Evidence of a between group difference in physical activity of moderate or vigorous intensity or in other health outcomes was inconsistent at follow-up. We did not find any difference in outcomes between exercise referral schemes and the other two comparator groups. None of the included trials separately reported outcomes in individuals with specific medical diagnoses. Substantial heterogeneity in the quality and nature of the exercise referral schemes across studies might have contributed to the inconsistency in outcome findings. Conclusions Considerable uncertainty remains as to the effectiveness of exercise referral schemes for increasing physical activity, fitness, or health indicators, or whether they are an efficient use of resources for sedentary people with or without a medical diagnosis.

Preparation of Industrially Important Hydroxy Acids and Diacids from 2,2-Disubstituted Propane-1,3-Diols and Linear Primary Diols by Green Chemistry Methods

Environmentally benign and economical methods for the preparation of industrially important hydroxy acids and diacids were developed. The carboxylic acids, used in polyesters, alkyd resins, and polyamides, were obtained by the oxidation of the corresponding alcohols with hydrogen peroxide or air catalyzed by sodium tungstate or supported noble metals. These oxidations were carried out using water as a solvent. The alcohols are also a useful alternative to the conventional reactants, hydroxyaldehydes and cycloalkanes. The oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols with hydrogen peroxide catalyzed by sodium tungstate afforded 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanoic acids and 1,1-disubstituted ethane-1,2-diols as products. A computational study of the Baeyer-Villiger rearrangement of the intermediate 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanals gave in-depth data of the mechanism of the reaction. Linear primary diols having chain length of at least six carbons were easily oxidized with hydrogen peroxide to linear dicarboxylic acids catalyzed by sodium tungstate. The Pt/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols and linear primary diols afforded the highest yield of the corresponding hydroxy acids, while the Pt, Bi/C catalyzed oxidation of the diols afforded the highest yield of the corresponding diacids. The mechanism of the promoted oxidation was best described by the ensemble effect, and by the formation of a complex of the hydroxy and the carboxy groups of the hydroxy acids with bismuth atoms. The Pt, Bi/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2-substituted 2-hydroxymethylpropane-1,3-diols gave 2-substituted malonic acids by the decarboxylation of the corresponding triacids. Activated carbon was the best support and bismuth the most efficient promoter in the air oxidation of 2,2-dialkylpropane-1,3-diols to diacids. In oxidations carried out in organic solvents barium sulfate could be a valuable alternative to activated carbon as a non-flammable support. In the Pt/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-disubstituted propane-1,3-diols to 2,2-disubstituted 3-hydroxypropanoic acids the small size of the 2-substituents enhanced the rate of the oxidation. When the potential of platinum of the catalyst was not controlled, the highest yield of the diacids in the Pt, Bi/C catalyzed air oxidation of 2,2-dialkylpropane-1,3-diols was obtained in the regime of mass transfer. The most favorable pH of the reaction mixture of the promoted oxidation was 10. The reaction temperature of 40°C prevented the decarboxylation of the diacids.

Geospatial environmental data modelling applications using remote sensing, GIS and spatial statistics

This thesis presents novel modelling applications for environmental geospatial data using remote sensing, GIS and statistical modelling techniques. The studied themes can be classified into four main themes: (i) to develop advanced geospatial databases. Paper (I) demonstrates the creation of a geospatial database for the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Åland Islands, south-western Finland; (ii) to analyse species diversity and distribution using GIS techniques. Paper (II) presents a diversity and geographical distribution analysis for Scopulini moths at a world-wide scale; (iii) to study spatiotemporal forest cover change. Paper (III) presents a study of exotic and indigenous tree cover change detection in Taita Hills Kenya using airborne imagery and GIS analysis techniques; (iv) to explore predictive modelling techniques using geospatial data. In Paper (IV) human population occurrence and abundance in the Taita Hills highlands was predicted using the generalized additive modelling (GAM) technique. Paper (V) presents techniques to enhance fire prediction and burned area estimation at a regional scale in East Caprivi Namibia. Paper (VI) compares eight state-of-the-art predictive modelling methods to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping in East Caprivi Namibia. The results in Paper (I) showed that geospatial data can be managed effectively using advanced relational database management systems. Metapopulation data for Melitaea cinxia butterfly was successfully combined with GPS-delimited habitat patch information and climatic data. Using the geospatial database, spatial analyses were successfully conducted at habitat patch level or at more coarse analysis scales. Moreover, this study showed it appears evident that at a large-scale spatially correlated weather conditions are one of the primary causes of spatially correlated changes in Melitaea cinxia population sizes. In Paper (II) spatiotemporal characteristics of Socupulini moths description, diversity and distribution were analysed at a world-wide scale and for the first time GIS techniques were used for Scopulini moth geographical distribution analysis. This study revealed that Scopulini moths have a cosmopolitan distribution. The majority of the species have been described from the low latitudes, sub-Saharan Africa being the hot spot of species diversity. However, the taxonomical effort has been uneven among biogeographical regions. Paper III showed that forest cover change can be analysed in great detail using modern airborne imagery techniques and historical aerial photographs. However, when spatiotemporal forest cover change is studied care has to be taken in co-registration and image interpretation when historical black and white aerial photography is used. In Paper (IV) human population distribution and abundance could be modelled with fairly good results using geospatial predictors and non-Gaussian predictive modelling techniques. Moreover, land cover layer is not necessary needed as a predictor because first and second-order image texture measurements derived from satellite imagery had more power to explain the variation in dwelling unit occurrence and abundance. Paper V showed that generalized linear model (GLM) is a suitable technique for fire occurrence prediction and for burned area estimation. GLM based burned area estimations were found to be more superior than the existing MODIS burned area product (MCD45A1). However, spatial autocorrelation of fires has to be taken into account when using the GLM technique for fire occurrence prediction. Paper VI showed that novel statistical predictive modelling techniques can be used to improve fire prediction, burned area estimation and fire risk mapping at a regional scale. However, some noticeable variation between different predictive modelling techniques for fire occurrence prediction and burned area estimation existed.

A Probabilistic Approach to the Primary Visual Cortex

What can the statistical structure of natural images teach us about the human brain? Even though the visual cortex is one of the most studied parts of the brain, surprisingly little is known about how exactly images are processed to leave us with a coherent percept of the world around us, so we can recognize a friend or drive on a crowded street without any effort. By constructing probabilistic models of natural images, the goal of this thesis is to understand the structure of the stimulus that is the raison d etre for the visual system. Following the hypothesis that the optimal processing has to be matched to the structure of that stimulus, we attempt to derive computational principles, features that the visual system should compute, and properties that cells in the visual system should have. Starting from machine learning techniques such as principal component analysis and independent component analysis we construct a variety of sta- tistical models to discover structure in natural images that can be linked to receptive field properties of neurons in primary visual cortex such as simple and complex cells. We show that by representing images with phase invariant, complex cell-like units, a better statistical description of the vi- sual environment is obtained than with linear simple cell units, and that complex cell pooling can be learned by estimating both layers of a two-layer model of natural images. We investigate how a simplified model of the processing in the retina, where adaptation and contrast normalization take place, is connected to the nat- ural stimulus statistics. Analyzing the effect that retinal gain control has on later cortical processing, we propose a novel method to perform gain control in a data-driven way. Finally we show how models like those pre- sented here can be extended to capture whole visual scenes rather than just small image patches. By using a Markov random field approach we can model images of arbitrary size, while still being able to estimate the model parameters from the data.