838 resultados para Precision and recall
Resumo:
The measurement of lifetime prevalence of depression in cross-sectional surveys is biased by recall problems. We estimated it indirectly for two countries using modelling, and quantified the underestimation in the empirical estimate for one. A microsimulation model was used to generate population-based epidemiological measures of depression. We fitted the model to 1-and 12-month prevalence data from the Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study (NEMESIS) and the Australian Adult Mental Health and Wellbeing Survey. The lowest proportion of cases ever having an episode in their life is 30% of men and 40% of women, for both countries. This corresponds to a lifetime prevalence of 20 and 30%, respectively, in a cross-sectional setting (aged 15-65). The NEMESIS data were 38% lower than these estimates. We conclude that modelling enabled us to estimate lifetime prevalence of depression indirectly. This method is useful in the absence of direct measurement, but also showed that direct estimates are underestimated by recall bias and by the cross-sectional setting.
Resumo:
Virus-like particles (VLPs) are of interest in vaccination, gene therapy and drug delivery, but their potential has yet to be fully realized. This is because existing laboratory processes, when scaled, do not easily give a compositionally and architecturally consistent product. Research suggests that new process routes might ultimately be based on chemical processing by self-assembly, involving the precision manufacture of precursor capsomeres followed by in vitro VLP self-assembly and scale-up to required levels. A synergistic interaction of biomolecular design and bioprocess engineering (i.e. biomolecular engineering) is required if these alternative process routes and, thus, the promise of new VLP products, are to be realized.
Resumo:
The results of two experiments are reported that examined how performance in a simple interceptive action (hitting a moving target) was influenced by the speed of the target, the size of the intercepting effector and the distance moved to make the interception. In Experiment 1, target speed and the width of the intercepting manipulandum (bat) were varied. The hypothesis that people make briefer movements, when the temporal accuracy and precision demands of the task are high, predicts that bat width and target speed will divisively interact in their effect on movement time (MT) and that shorter MTs will be associated with a smaller temporal variable error (VE). An alternative hypothesis that people initiate movement when the rate of expansion (ROE) of the target's image reaches a specific, fixed criterion value predicts that bat width will have no effect on MT. The results supported the first hypothesis: a statistically reliable interaction of the predicted form was obtained and the temporal VE was smaller for briefer movements. In Experiment 2, distance to move and target speed were varied. MT increased in direct proportion to distance and there was a divisive interaction between distance and speed; as in Experiment 1, temporal VE was smaller for briefer movements. The pattern of results could not be explained by the strategy of initiating movement at a fixed value of the ROE or at a fixed value of any other perceptual variable potentially available for initiating movement. It is argued that the results support pre-programming of MT with movement initiated when the target's time to arrival at the interception location reaches a criterion value that is matched to the pre-programmed MT. The data supported completely open-loop control when MT was less than between 200 and 240 ms with corrective sub-movements increasingly frequent for movements of longer duration.
Resumo:
Accurate dating of lagoon sediments has been a difficult problem, although lagoon profiles, usually with high deposition rates, have a great potential for high-resolution climate reconstruction. We report 26 high-precision TIMS U-series dates (on 25 coral branches) and five AMS C-14 dates (on foraminifera) for a 15.4-m long lagoon core from Yongshu Reef, Nansha area, southern South China Sea. All the dates are in the correct stratigraphical sequence, providing the best chronology so far reported for lagoon deposits. The results reveal a similar to 4000-a continuous depositional history, with sedimentation rates varying from 0.8 to 24.6 mm a(-1), with an average of 3.85 mm a(-1), which corresponds to an average net carbonate accumulation rate of similar to 2700 g CaCO3 m(-2) a(-1), significantly higher than the mean value (800 +/- 400 g CaCO3 m(-2) a(-1)) used for lagoons in general in previous studies of global carbonate budget. Episodes of accelerated depositions within the last 1000 years correlate well with strong storm events identified by U-series dates of storm-transported coral blocks in the area. However, in the longer term, the sedimentation rates during the past 1000 years were much higher than earlier on, probably due to more vigorous wave-reef interaction as a result of relative sea-level fall since 500 AD and expansion of reef flat area, supplying more sediments. The coral TIMS U-series ages and foraminifera AMS 14C dates reveal intriguing apparent radiocarbon reservoir ages (R) from 572 to 1052 years, which are much higher than global mean values of similar to 400 years. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
Increasingly, academic teachers are designing their own web sites to add value to or replace other forms of university teaching. These web sites are tangible and dynamic constructions that represent the teachers thinking and decisions derived from an implicit belief system about teaching and learning. The emphasis of this study is to explore the potential of the research techniques of concept-mapping and stimulated recall to locate the implicit pedagogies of academic teachers and investigate how they are enacted through the learning designs of their web sites. The rationale behind such an investigation is that once these implicit belief systems are made visible, then conversations can commence about how these beliefs are transformed into practice, providing a potent departure point for academic development.
Resumo:
This paper introduces a new technique in the investigation of limited-dependent variable models. This paper illustrates that variable precision rough set theory (VPRS), allied with the use of a modern method of classification, or discretisation of data, can out-perform the more standard approaches that are employed in economics, such as a probit model. These approaches and certain inductive decision tree methods are compared (through a Monte Carlo simulation approach) in the analysis of the decisions reached by the UK Monopolies and Mergers Committee. We show that, particularly in small samples, the VPRS model can improve on more traditional models, both in-sample, and particularly in out-of-sample prediction. A similar improvement in out-of-sample prediction over the decision tree methods is also shown.
Resumo:
Influential models of short-term memory have attributed the fact that short words are recalled better than longer words in serial recall (the length effect) to articulatory rehearsal. Crucial for this link is the finding that the length effect disappears under articulatory suppression. We show, instead, that, under suppression, the length effect is abolished or reversed for real words but remains robust for nonwords. The latter finding is demonstrated in a variety of conditions: with lists of three and four nonwords, with nonwords drawn from closed and open sets, with spoken and written presentation, and with written and spoken output. Our interpretation is that the standard length effect derives from the number of phonological units to be retained. The length effect is abolished or reversed under suppression because this condition encourages reliance on lexical-semantic representations. Using these representations, longer words can more easily be reconstructed from degraded phonology than shorter words. © 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Resumo:
We report statistical time-series analysis tools providing improvements in the rapid, precision extraction of discrete state dynamics from time traces of experimental observations of molecular machines. By building physical knowledge and statistical innovations into analysis tools, we provide techniques for estimating discrete state transitions buried in highly correlated molecular noise. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach on simulated and real examples of steplike rotation of the bacterial flagellar motor and the F1-ATPase enzyme. We show that our method can clearly identify molecular steps, periodicities and cascaded processes that are too weak for existing algorithms to detect, and can do so much faster than existing algorithms. Our techniques represent a step in the direction toward automated analysis of high-sample-rate, molecular-machine dynamics. Modular, open-source software that implements these techniques is provided.
Resumo:
Visual stress is a condition characterised by symptoms of eyestrain, headaches and distortions of visual perception when reading text. The symptoms are frequently alleviated with spectral filters and precision tinted ophthalmic lenses. Visual stress is thought to arise due to cortical hyperexcitability and is associated with a range of neurological conditions. Cortical hyperexcitability is known to occur following stroke. The case presented describes visual stress symptoms resulting from stroke, subsequently managed with spectral filters and precision tinted ophthalmic lenses. The case also highlights that the spectral properties of the tint may need to be modified if the disease course alters.