Filter for Car Tracking Based on Acceleration and Steering Angle

The motion of a car is described using a stochastic model in which the driving processes are the steering angle and the tangential acceleration. The model incorporates exactly the kinematic constraint that the wheels do not slip sideways. Two filters based on this model have been implemented, namely the standard EKF, and a new filter (the CUF) in which the expectation and the covariance of the system state are propagated accurately. Experiments show that i) the CUF is better than the EKF at predicting future positions of the car; and ii) the filter outputs can be used to control the measurement process, leading to improved ability to recover from errors in predictive tracking.

Wind generation's contribution to supporting peak electricity demand: meteorological insights

Wind generation’s contribution to meeting extreme peaks in electricity demand is a key concern for the integration of wind power. In Great Britain (GB), robustly assessing this contribution directly from power system data (i.e. metered wind-supply and electricity demand) is difficult as extreme peaks occur infrequently (by definition) and measurement records are both short and inhomogeneous. Atmospheric circulation-typing combined with meteorological reanalysis data is proposed as a means to address some of these difficulties, motivated by a case study of the extreme peak demand events in January 2010. A preliminary investigation of the physical and statistical properties of these circulation types suggests that they can be used to identify the conditions that are most likely to be associated with extreme peak demand events. Three broad cases are highlighted as requiring further investigation. The high-over-Britain anticyclone is found to be generally associated with very low winds but relatively moderate temperatures (and therefore moderate peak demands, somewhat in contrast to the classic low-wind cold snap that is sometimes apparent in the literature). In contrast, both longitudinally extended blocking over Scotland/Scandinavia and latitudinally extended troughs over western Europe appear to be more closely linked to the very cold GB temperatures (usually associated with extreme peak demands). In both of these latter situations, wind resource averaged across GB appears to be more moderate.

Can microgrids make a major contribution to UK energy supply?

Almost all the electricity currently produced in the UK is generated as part of a centralised power system designed around large fossil fuel or nuclear power stations. This power system is robust and reliable but the efficiency of power generation is low, resulting in large quantities of waste heat. The principal aim of this paper is to investigate an alternative concept: the energy production by small scale generators in close proximity to the energy users, integrated into microgrids. Microgrids—de-centralised electricity generation combined with on-site production of heat—bear the promise of substantial environmental benefits, brought about by a higher energy efficiency and by facilitating the integration of renewable sources such as photovoltaic arrays or wind turbines. By virtue of good match between generation and load, microgrids have a low impact on the electricity network, despite a potentially significant level of generation by intermittent energy sources. The paper discusses the technical and economic issues associated with this novel concept, giving an overview of the generator technologies, the current regulatory framework in the UK, and the barriers that have to be overcome if microgrids are to make a major contribution to the UK energy supply. The focus of this study is a microgrid of domestic users powered by small Combined Heat and Power generators and photovoltaics. Focusing on the energy balance between the generation and load, it is found that the optimum combination of the generators in the microgrid- consisting of around 1.4 kWp PV array per household and 45% household ownership of micro-CHP generators- will maintain energy balance on a yearly basis if supplemented by energy storage of 2.7 kWh per household. We find that there is no fundamental technological reason why microgrids cannot contribute an appreciable part of the UK energy demand. Indeed, an estimate of cost indicates that the microgrids considered in this study would supply electricity at a cost comparable with the present electricity supply if the current support mechanisms for photovoltaics were maintained. Combining photovoltaics and micro-CHP and a small battery requirement gives a microgrid that is independent of the national electricity network. In the short term, this has particular benefits for remote communities but more wide-ranging possibilities open up in the medium to long term. Microgrids could meet the need to replace current generation nuclear and coal fired power stations, greatly reducing the demand on the transmission and distribution network.

Privatisation and cross-border electricity trade: from internal market to European Supergrid?

he perspective European Supergrid would consist of an integrated power system network, where electricity demands from one country could be met by generation from another country. This paper makes use of a bi-linear fixed-effects model to analyse the determinants for trading electricity across borders among 34 countries connected by the European Supergrid. The key question that this paper aims to address is the extent to which the privatisation of European electricity markets has brought about higher cross-border trade of electricity. The analysis makes use of distance, price ratios, gate closure times, size of peaks and aggregate demand as standard determinants. Controlling for other standard determinants, it is concluded that privatisation in most cases led to higher power exchange and that the benefits are more significant where privatisation measures have been in place for a longer period.

Conditioning of the weak-constraint variational data assimilation problem for numerical weather prediction

4-Dimensional Variational Data Assimilation (4DVAR) assimilates observations through the minimisation of a least-squares objective function, which is constrained by the model flow. We refer to 4DVAR as strong-constraint 4DVAR (sc4DVAR) in this thesis as it assumes the model is perfect. Relaxing this assumption gives rise to weak-constraint 4DVAR (wc4DVAR), leading to a different minimisation problem with more degrees of freedom. We consider two wc4DVAR formulations in this thesis, the model error formulation and state estimation formulation. The 4DVAR objective function is traditionally solved using gradient-based iterative methods. The principle method used in Numerical Weather Prediction today is the Gauss-Newton approach. This method introduces a linearised `inner-loop' objective function, which upon convergence, updates the solution of the non-linear `outer-loop' objective function. This requires many evaluations of the objective function and its gradient, which emphasises the importance of the Hessian. The eigenvalues and eigenvectors of the Hessian provide insight into the degree of convexity of the objective function, while also indicating the difficulty one may encounter while iterative solving 4DVAR. The condition number of the Hessian is an appropriate measure for the sensitivity of the problem to input data. The condition number can also indicate the rate of convergence and solution accuracy of the minimisation algorithm. This thesis investigates the sensitivity of the solution process minimising both wc4DVAR objective functions to the internal assimilation parameters composing the problem. We gain insight into these sensitivities by bounding the condition number of the Hessians of both objective functions. We also precondition the model error objective function and show improved convergence. We show that both formulations' sensitivities are related to error variance balance, assimilation window length and correlation length-scales using the bounds. We further demonstrate this through numerical experiments on the condition number and data assimilation experiments using linear and non-linear chaotic toy models.

Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses

Accurate knowledge of the location and magnitude of ocean heat content (OHC) variability and change is essential for understanding the processes that govern decadal variations in surface temperature, quantifying changes in the planetary energy budget, and developing constraints on the transient climate response to external forcings. We present an overview of the temporal and spatial characteristics of OHC variability and change as represented by an ensemble of dynamical and statistical ocean reanalyses (ORAs). Spatial maps of the 0–300 m layer show large regions of the Pacific and Indian Oceans where the interannual variability of the ensemble mean exceeds ensemble spread, indicating that OHC variations are well-constrained by the available observations over the period 1993–2009. At deeper levels, the ORAs are less well-constrained by observations with the largest differences across the ensemble mostly associated with areas of high eddy kinetic energy, such as the Southern Ocean and boundary current regions. Spatial patterns of OHC change for the period 1997–2009 show good agreement in the upper 300 m and are characterized by a strong dipole pattern in the Pacific Ocean. There is less agreement in the patterns of change at deeper levels, potentially linked to differences in the representation of ocean dynamics, such as water mass formation processes. However, the Atlantic and Southern Oceans are regions in which many ORAs show widespread warming below 700 m over the period 1997–2009. Annual time series of global and hemispheric OHC change for 0–700 m show the largest spread for the data sparse Southern Hemisphere and a number of ORAs seem to be subject to large initialization ‘shock’ over the first few years. In agreement with previous studies, a number of ORAs exhibit enhanced ocean heat uptake below 300 and 700 m during the mid-1990s or early 2000s. The ORA ensemble mean (±1 standard deviation) of rolling 5-year trends in full-depth OHC shows a relatively steady heat uptake of approximately 0.9 ± 0.8 W m−2 (expressed relative to Earth’s surface area) between 1995 and 2002, which reduces to about 0.2 ± 0.6 W m−2 between 2004 and 2006, in qualitative agreement with recent analysis of Earth’s energy imbalance. There is a marked reduction in the ensemble spread of OHC trends below 300 m as the Argo profiling float observations become available in the early 2000s. In general, we suggest that ORAs should be treated with caution when employed to understand past ocean warming trends—especially when considering the deeper ocean where there is little in the way of observational constraints. The current work emphasizes the need to better observe the deep ocean, both for providing observational constraints for future ocean state estimation efforts and also to develop improved models and data assimilation methods.

A process-based evaluation of dust-emitting winds in the CMIP5 simulation of HadGEM2-ES

Despite the importance of dust aerosol in the Earth system, state-of-the-art models show a large variety for North African dust emission. This study presents a systematic evaluation of dust emitting-winds in 30 years of the historical model simulation with the UK Met Office Earth-system model HadGEM2-ES for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5. Isolating the effect of winds on dust emission and using an automated detection for nocturnal low-level jets (NLLJs) allow an in-depth evaluation of the model performance for dust emission from a meteorological perspective. The findings highlight that NLLJs are a key driver for dust emission in HadGEM2-ES in terms of occurrence frequency and strength. The annually and spatially averaged occurrence frequency of NLLJs is similar in HadGEM2-ES and ERA-Interim from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. Compared to ERA-Interim, a stronger pressure ridge over northern Africa in winter and the southward displaced heat low in summer result in differences in location and strength of NLLJs. Particularly the larger geostrophic winds associated with the stronger ridge have a strengthening effect on NLLJs over parts of West Africa in winter. Stronger NLLJs in summer may rather result from an artificially increased mixing coefficient under stable stratification that is weaker in HadGEM2-ES. NLLJs in the Bodélé Depression are affected by stronger synoptic-scale pressure gradients in HadGEM2-ES. Wintertime geostrophic winds can even be so strong that the associated vertical wind shear prevents the formation of NLLJs. These results call for further model improvements in the synoptic-scale dynamics and the physical parametrization of the nocturnal stable boundary layer to better represent dust-emitting processes in the atmospheric model. The new approach could be used for identifying systematic behavior in other models with respect to meteorological processes for dust emission. This would help to improve dust emission simulations and contribute to decreasing the currently large uncertainty in climate change projections with respect to dust aerosol.

Cross layer based protocols for energy aware and critical data delivery related applications using wireless sensor networks

Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) have been an exciting topic in recent years. The services offered by a WSN can be classified into three major categories: monitoring, alerting, and information on demand. WSNs have been used for a variety of applications related to the environment (agriculture, water and forest fire detection), the military, buildings, health (elderly people and home monitoring), disaster relief, and area or industrial monitoring. In most WSNs tasks like processing the sensed data, making decisions and generating emergency messages are carried out by a remote server, hence the need for efficient means of transferring data across the network. Because of the range of applications and types of WSN there is a need for different kinds of MAC and routing protocols in order to guarantee delivery of data from the source nodes to the server (or sink). In order to minimize energy consumption and increase performance in areas such as reliability of data delivery, extensive research has been conducted and documented in the literature on designing energy efficient protocols for each individual layer. The most common way to conserve energy in WSNs involves using the MAC layer to put the transceiver and the processor of the sensor node into a low power, sleep state when they are not being used. Hence the energy wasted due to collisions, overhearing and idle listening is reduced. As a result of this strategy for saving energy, the routing protocols need new solutions that take into account the sleep state of some nodes, and which also enable the lifetime of the entire network to be increased by distributing energy usage between nodes over time. This could mean that a combined MAC and routing protocol could significantly improve WSNs because the interaction between the MAC and network layers lets nodes be active at the same time in order to deal with data transmission. In the research presented in this thesis, a cross-layer protocol based on MAC and routing protocols was designed in order to improve the capability of WSNs for a range of different applications. Simulation results, based on a range of realistic scenarios, show that these new protocols improve WSNs by reducing their energy consumption as well as enabling them to support mobile nodes, where necessary. A number of conference and journal papers have been published to disseminate these results for a range of applications.

Two-level network design with intermediate facilities: An application to electrical distribution systems

We consider the two-level network design problem with intermediate facilities. This problem consists of designing a minimum cost network respecting some requirements, usually described in terms of the network topology or in terms of a desired flow of commodities between source and destination vertices. Each selected link must receive one of two types of edge facilities and the connection of different edge facilities requires a costly and capacitated vertex facility. We propose a hybrid decomposition approach which heuristically obtains tentative solutions for the vertex facilities number and location and use these solutions to limit the computational burden of a branch-and-cut algorithm. We test our method on instances of the power system secondary distribution network design problem. The results show that the method is efficient both in terms of solution quality and computational times. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Preparation and structural characterization of rare-earth doped lead lanthanum zirconate titanate ceramics

A new preparation route towards rare-earth (RE) doped polycrystalline lead lanthanum zirconate titanate (PLZT) ceramics (RE = Y(3+), Nd(3+), Yb(3+)), based on the use of doped lanthanum oxide or zirconia, is reported. Structural characterization by X-ray powder diffraction reveals that secondary phase formation can be substantially diminished in comparison to conventional preparation methods. The distribution of the rare-earth dopants was investigated as a function of concentration by static (207)Pb spin echo NMR spectra, using Fourier Transformation of Carr-Purcell-Meiboom-Gill spin echo trains. For the Nd- and Yb-doped materials, the interaction of the (207)Pb nuclei with the unpaired electron spin density results in significant broadening and shifting of the NMR signal, whereas these effects are absent in the diamagnetic Y(3+) doped materials. Based on different concentration dependences of the NMR lineshape parameters, we conclude that the structural role of the Nd(3+) dopants differs significantly from that of Yb(3+). While the Nd(3+) ions appear to be statistically distributed in the PLZT lattice, incorporation of Yb(3+) into PLZT appears to be limited by the appearance of doped cubic zirconia as a secondary phase. (C) 2009 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Fluoride in the groundwater of the Tubarao and Crystaline aquifers, Salto-Indaiatuba region (SP)

Anomalous concentrations of fluoride in groundwater were identified in 19 drilling wells in the Salto-Indaiatuba region, Sao Paulo State, with an average concentration of 3.03 mg dm(-3) and a maximum of 6.95 mg dm(-3), which constitute a restriction for the water`s usage in terms of human consumption. The wells exploit water from the Tubarao Aquifer (sedimentary, granular) and Crystalline Aquifer (granitic, fractured), used for sanitary or industrial purposes. These groundwaters are typically HCO(3) and HCO(3)-SO(4) types, with high concentrations of HCO(3) -and Na(+) and high pH-values between 7.5 and 10.0. The highest concentrations of F-are associated to the Tubarao and Tubarao/Crystalline aquifer drilling wells. The presence of F-in groundwater is controlled by these high pH-values, alkalinity, and fluorine availability. The source of fluoride in the Tubarao and Crystalline Aquifers can be related to the percolation of hydrothermal fluids associated with Mesozoic lava flow, emplaced due to the opening of Atlantic Ocean and/or hydrolysis of fluorine-rich minerals and clay minerals.

Travel Report from the first field trip within the SIDA supported project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility : Including visits to Ihushi Development Center, Tweyambe Secondary School and Mavuno Project in Tanzania. Conducted in April 2011

This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.This report describes the outcome of the first visit to Tanzania, within the project "Mini-grids supplied by renewable energy - improving technical and social feasibility". The trip included visits to three different organizations; Ihushi Development Center (IDC) near Mwanza, TIDESO near Bukoba, and Mavuno Project in Karagwe. At IDC, a brief evaluation of the current power system was done and measuring equipment for long term measurements were installed. At all three locations investigations regarding the current and future electricity demand were conducted and connections to people relevant to the study were established. The report is including as well some technical specifications as some observations regarding organization and management of the technical systems. The trip was including only short visits and therefore only brief introductions to the different organizations, based on observations done by the author. The report is hence describing the author’s understanding of the technical system and social structures after only short visits to each of the organizations, and may differ from observations done at another point in time, over a different time period, or by some other person.

Projetos de controladores para sistemas de potência utilizando LMI'S

A presente dissertação tem como objetivo estudar e aprimorar métodos de projetos de controladores para sistemas de potência, sendo que esse trabalho trata da estabilidade dinâmica de sistemas de potência e, portanto, do projeto de controladores amortecedores de oscilações eletromecânicas para esses sistemas. A escolha dos métodos aqui estudados foi orientada pelos requisitos que um estabilizador de sistemas de potência (ESP) deve ter, que são robustez, descentralização e coordenação. Sendo que alguns deles tiveram suas características aprimoradas para atender a esses requisitos. A abordagem dos métodos estudados foi restringida à análise no domínio tempo, pois a abordagem temporal facilita a modelagem das incertezas paramétricas, para atender ao requisito da robustez, e também permite a formulação do controle descentralizado de maneira simples. Além disso, a abordagem temporal permite a formulação do problema de projeto utilizando desigualdades matriciais lineares (LMI’s), as quais possuem como vantagem o fato do conjunto solução ser sempre convexo e a existência de algoritmos eficientes para o cálculo de sua solução. De fato, existem diversos pacotes computacionais desenvolvidos no mercado para o cálculo da solução de um problema de inequações matriciais lineares. Por esse motivo, os métodos de projeto para controladores de saída buscam sempre colocar o problema na forma de LMI’s, tendo em vista que ela garante a obtenção de solução, caso essa solução exista.

Teoria de carteiras e a alocação de parques eólicos offshore

The consumption of energy on the planet is currently based on fossil fuels. They are responsible for adverse effects on the environment. Renewables propose solutions for this scenario, but must face issues related to the capacity of the power supply. Wind energy offshore emerging as a promising alternative. The speed and stability are greater winds over oceans, but the variability of these may cause inconvenience to the generation of electric power fluctuations. To reduce this, a combination of wind farms geographically distributed was proposed. The greater the distance between them, the lower the correlation between the wind velocity, increasing the likelihood that together achieve more stable power system with less fluctuations in power generation. The efficient use of production capacity of the wind park however, depends on their distribution in marine environments. The objective of this research was to analyze the optimal allocation of wind farms offshore on the east coast of the U.S. by Modern Portfolio Theory. The Modern Portfolio Theory was used so that the process of building portfolios of wind energy offshore contemplate the particularity of intermittency of wind, through calculations of return and risk of the production of wind farms. The research was conducted with 25.934 observations of energy produced by wind farms 11 hypothetical offshore, from the installation of 01 simulated ocean turbine with a capacity of 5 MW. The data show hourly time resolution and covers the period between January 1, 1998 until December 31, 2002. Through the Matlab R software, six were calculated minimum variance portfolios, each for a period of time distinct. Given the inequality of the variability of wind over time, set up four strategies rebalancing to evaluate the performance of the related portfolios, which enabled us to identify the most beneficial to the stability of the wind energy production offshore. The results showed that the production of wind energy for 1998, 1999, 2000 and 2001 should be considered by the portfolio weights calculated for the same periods, respectively. Energy data for 2002 should use the weights derived from the portfolio calculated in the previous time period. Finally, the production of wind energy in the period 1998-2002 should also be weighted by 1/11. It follows therefore that the portfolios found failed to show reduced levels of variability when compared to the individual production of wind farms hypothetical offshore