917 resultados para Population and sample
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This article introduces a new general method for genealogical inference that samples independent genealogical histories using importance sampling (IS) and then samples other parameters with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). It is then possible to more easily utilize the advantages of importance sampling in a fully Bayesian framework. The method is applied to the problem of estimating recent changes in effective population size from temporally spaced gene frequency data. The method gives the posterior distribution of effective population size at the time of the oldest sample and at the time of the most recent sample, assuming a model of exponential growth or decline during the interval. The effect of changes in number of alleles, number of loci, and sample size on the accuracy of the method is described using test simulations, and it is concluded that these have an approximately equivalent effect. The method is used on three example data sets and problems in interpreting the posterior densities are highlighted and discussed.
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The interplay between coevolutionary and population or community dynamics is currently the focus of much empirical and theoretical consideration. Here, we develop a simulation model to study the coevolutionary and population dynamics of a hypothetical host-parasitoid interaction. In the model, host resistance and parasitoid virulence are allowed to coevolve. We investigate how trade-offs associated with these traits modify the system's coevolutionary and population dynamics. The most important influence on these dynamics comes from the incorporation of density-dependent costs of resistance ability. We find three main outcomes. First, if the costs of resistance are high, then one or both of the players go extinct. Second, when the costs of resistance are intermediate to low, cycling population and coevolutionary dynamics are found, with slower evolutionary changes observed when the costs of virulence are also low. Third, when the costs associated with resistance and virulence are both high, the hosts trade-off resistance against fecundity and invest little in resistance. However, the parasitoids continue to invest in virulence, leading to stable host and parasitoid population sizes. These results support the hypothesis that costs associated with resistance and virulence will maintain the heritable variation in these traits found in natural populations and that the nature of these trade-offs will greatly influence the population dynamics of the interacting species.
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Sampling strategies for monitoring the status and trends in wildlife populations are often determined before the first survey is undertaken. However, there may be little information about the distribution of the population and so the sample design may be inefficient. Through time, as data are collected, more information about the distribution of animals in the survey region is obtained but it can be difficult to incorporate this information in the survey design. This paper introduces a framework for monitoring motile wildlife populations within which the design of future surveys can be adapted using data from past surveys whilst ensuring consistency in design-based estimates of status and trends through time. In each survey, part of the sample is selected from the previous survey sample using simple random sampling. The rest is selected with inclusion probability proportional to predicted abundance. Abundance is predicted using a model constructed from previous survey data and covariates for the whole survey region. Unbiased design-based estimators of status and trends and their variances are derived from two-phase sampling theory. Simulations over the short and long-term indicate that in general more precise estimates of status and trends are obtained using this mixed strategy than a strategy in which all of the sample is retained or all selected with probability proportional to predicted abundance. Furthermore the mixed strategy is robust to poor predictions of abundance. Estimates of status are more precise than those obtained from a rotating panel design.
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Dispersal is a key process in population and evolutionary ecology. Individual decisions are affected by fitness consequences of dispersal, but these are difficult to measure in wild populations. A long-term dataset on a geographically closed bird population, the Mauritius kestrel, offers a rare opportunity to explore fitness consequences. Females dispersed further when the availability of local breeding sites was limited, whereas male dispersal correlated with phenotypic traits. Female but not male fitness was lower when they dispersed longer distances compared to settling close to home. These results suggest a cost of dispersal in females. We found evidence of both short- and long-term fitness consequences of natal dispersal in females, including reduced fecundity in early life and more rapid aging in later life. Taken together, our results indicate that dispersal in early life might shape life history strategies in wild populations.
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Background: High levels of parental anxiety are associated with poor treatment outcomes for children with anxiety disorders. Associated parental cognitions and behaviours have been implicated as impediments to successful treatment. We examined the association between parental responsibility beliefs, maternal anxiety and parenting behaviours in the context of childhood anxiety disorders. Methods: Anxious and non-anxious mothers of 7-12 year old children with a current anxiety disorder reported their parental responsibility beliefs using a questionnaire measure. Parental behaviours towards their child during a stressor task were measured. Results: Parents with a current anxiety disorder reported a greater sense of responsibility for their child’s actions and wellbeing than parents who scored within the normal range for anxiety. Furthermore, higher parental responsibility was associated with more intrusive and less warm behaviours in parent-child interactions and there was an indirect effect between maternal anxiety and maternal intrusive behaviours via parental responsibility beliefs. Limitations: The sample was limited to a treatment-seeking, relatively high socio-economic population and only mothers were included so replication with more diverse groups is needed. The use of a range of stressor tasks may have allowed for a more comprehensive assessment of parental behaviours. Conclusions: The findings suggest that parental anxiety disorder is associated with an elevated sense of parental responsibility and may promote parental behaviours likely to inhibit optimum child treatment outcomes. Parental responsibility beliefs may therefore be important to target in child anxiety treatments in the context of parental anxiety disorders.
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The variability of populations over time is positively associated with their risk of local extinction. Previous work has shown that populations at the high-latitude boundary of species’ ranges show higher inter-annual variability, consistent with increased sensitivity and exposure to adverse climatic conditions. However, patterns of population variability at both high- and low-latitude species range boundaries have not yet been concurrently examined. Here, we assess the inter-annual population variability of 28 butterfly species between 1994 and 2009 at 351 and 18 sites in the United Kingdom and Catalonia, Spain, respectively. Local population variability is examined with respect to the position of the species’ bioclimatic envelopes (i.e. whether the population falls within areas of the ‘core’ climatic suitability or is a climatically ‘marginal’ population), and in relation to local landscape heterogeneity, which may influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. We found that butterfly species consistently show latitudinal gradients in population variability, with increased variability in the more northerly UK. This pattern is even more marked for southerly distributed species with ‘marginal’ climatic suitability in the UK but ‘core’ climatic suitability in Catalonia. In addition, local landscape heterogeneity did influence these range location – population dynamic relationships. Habitat heterogeneity was associated with dampened population dynamics, especially for populations in the UK. Our results suggest that promoting habitat heterogeneity may promote the persistence of populations at high-latitude range boundaries, which may potentially aid northwards expansion under climate warming. We did not find evidence that population variability increases towards southern range boundaries. Sample sizes for this region were low, but there was tentative evidence, in line with previous ecological theory, that local landscape heterogeneity may promote persistence in these retracting low-latitude range boundary populations.
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Objective: To estimate the prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake among adolescents and the association between socio-economic variables and nutritional status. Design: Cross-sectional study with a population-based sample. Settings: The usual nutrient intake distribution was estimated using the Iowa State University method. The Estimated Average Requirement cut-off point method was used to determine the proportion of adolescents with inadequate intake for each nutrient, according to sex, income, parental educational level and nutritional status. Subjects: Twenty-four-hour dietary recalls were applied in 525 male and female Brazilian adolescents aged 14-18 years. Results: The highest prevalence of inadequate nutrient intake was observed for vitamin E (99% in both sexes). For male and female adolescents, the prevalence of inadequate intake was: Mg, 89% and 84%; vitamin A, 78% and 71 %; vitamin C, 79% and 53%; and vitamin B(6), 21% and 33%, respectively. The prevalence of inadequate intake for niacin, thiamin, riboflavin, Se, Cu and vitamin B(12) was <15 %. Individuals in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata had the highest risk of having inadequate intake for P, riboflavin and vitamins A, B(6) and B(12). Compared with non-overweight individuals, overweight individuals had a higher risk of inadequate intake for Mg, vitamin A, P, thiamin and riboflavin. Conclusions: The present study found a high prevalence of inadequate intake of nutrients that are recognised as being protective against chronic diseases. Adolescents in the lower income and lower parental educational level strata were less likely to have their nutrient intake requirements met.
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The Hyacinth Macaw (Anodorhynchus hyacinthinus) is one of 14 endangered species in the family Psittacidae occurring in Brazil, with an estimated total population of 6,500 specimens. We used nuclear molecular markers (single locus minisatellites and microsatellites) and 472 bp of the mitochondrial DNA control region to characterize levels of genetic variability in this species and to assess the degree of gene flow among three nesting sites in Brazil (Pantanal do Abobral, Pantanal de Miranda and Piaui). The origin of five apprehended specimens was also investigated. The results suggest that, in comparison to other species of parrots, Hyacinth Macaws possess relatively lower genetic variation and that individuals from two different localities within the Pantanal (Abobral and Miranda) belong to a unique interbreeding population and are genetically distinct at nuclear level from birds from the state of Piaui. The analyses of the five apprehended birds suggest that the Pantanal is not the source of birds for illegal trade, but their precise origin could not be assigned. The low genetic variability detected in the Hyacinth Macaw does not seem to pose a threat to the survival of this species. Nevertheless, habitat destruction and nest poaching are the most important factors negatively affecting their populations in the wild. The observed genetic structure emphasizes the need of protection of Hyacinth Macaws from different regions in order to maintain the genetic diversity of this species.
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Olfactory information modulates innate and social behaviors in rodents and other species. Studies have shown that the medial nucleus of the amygdala (MEA) and the ventral premammillary, nucleus (PMV) are recruited by conspecific odor stimulation. However, the chemical identity of these neurons is not determined. We exposed sexually inexperienced male rats to female or male odors and assessed Fos immunoreactivity (Fos-ir) in neurons expressing NADPH diaphorase activity (NADPHd, a nitric oxide synthase), neuropeptide Urocortin 3, or glutamic acid decarboxylase rnRNA (GAD-67, a GABA-synthesizing enzyme) in the MEA and PMV. Male and female odors elicited Fos-ir in the MEA and PMV neurons, but the number of Fos-immunoreactive neurons was higher following female odor exposure, in both nuclei. We found no difference in odor induced Fos-ir ill the MEA and PMV comparing fed and fasted animals. Ill the MEA, NADPHd neurons colocalized Fos-ir only in response to female odors. In addition, Urocortin 3 neurons comprise a distinct population and they do not express Fos-ir after conspecific odor stimulation. We found that 80% of neurons activated by male odors coexpressed GAD-67 mRNA. Following female odor, 50% of Fos neurons coexpressed GAD-67 rnRNA. The PMV expresses very little GAD-67, and virtually no colocalization with Fos was observed. We found intense NADPHd activity in PMV neurons, some of which coexpressed Fos-ir after exposure to both odors. The majority of the PMV neurons expressing NADPHd colocalized cocaine-and amphetamine-regulated transcript (CART). Our findings suggest that female and male odors engage distinct neuronal populations in the MEA, thereby inducing contextualized behavioral responses according to olfactory cues. In the PMV, NADPHd/CART neurons respond to male and female odors, suggesting a role in neuroendocrine regulation in response to olfactory cues. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
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Objective: Turnover of the extracellular matrix in all solid organs is governed mainly by a balance between the degrading matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) and their tissue inhibitors (TIMPs). An altered extracellular matrix metabolism has been implicated in a variety of diseases. We investigated relations of serum levels of MMP-9 and TIMP-1 to mortality risk from an etiological perspective. Design: The prospective Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) cohort, followed from 1991–1995 for up to 18.1 years. A random population-based sample of 1,082 71-year-old men, no loss to follow-up. Endpoints were all-cause (n = 628), cardiovascular (n = 230), non-cardiovascular (n = 398) and cancer mortality (n = 178), and fatal or non-fatal myocardial infarction (n = 138) or stroke (n = 163). Results: Serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were associated with risk of all-cause mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR] per standard deviation 1.10, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–1.19; and 1.11, 1.02–1.20; respectively). TIMP-1 levels were mainly related to risks of cardiovascular mortality and stroke (HR per standard deviation 1.22, 95% CI 1.09–1.37; and 1.18, 1.04–1.35; respectively). All relations except those of TIMP-1 to stroke risk were attenuated by adjustment for cardiovascular disease risk factors. Relations in a subsample without cardiovascular disease or cancer were similar to those in the total sample. Conclusion: In this community-based cohort of elderly men, serum MMP-9 and TIMP-1 levels were related to mortality risk. An altered extracellular matrix metabolism may be involved in several detrimental pathways, and circulating MMP-9 or TIMP-1 levels may be relevant markers thereof.
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Pollinator visitation rates over the life of a flower are determined by pollinator abundance and floral longevity. If flowers are not visited frequently enough, pollen limitation may occur, favoring the evolution of self-compatibility (SC). In plant species with varying SC levels, central populations often are self-incompatible (SI) and peripheral populations are SC. Witheringia solanacea (Solanaceae) is a species that follows this trend with the exception of one population in the Monteverde Cloud Forest Reserve, which is peripheral yet SI. I investigated this population using multiple techniques including floral bagging, pollinator observations, microsatellite analysis, and floral longevity manipulations. My results confirmed the self-incompatibility of the Monteverde population and indicated low but perhaps adequate rates of pollinator visitation per flower per hour. I found reduced genetic diversity at Monteverde and gene flow occurring unidirectionally from San Luis (a central population) to Monteverde. In the greenhouse, there was more of an effect of male than female function on floral longevity, but the largest differences were environmental. Flowers stayed open substantially longer when cool, cloudy weather was simulated and shorter when conditions were hot and sunny. The results indicate that the Monteverde population of W. solanacea is SI because 1) it is unable to maximize its fitness due to gene flow from San Luis and its relatively recent colonization of the area and 2) pollen limitation may not be severe because of supplemental pollinator availability from other Witheringia species in the area and increased floral longevities due to cool and cloudy conditions.
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Background and Aims: There is little information about the epidemiology and risk factors of periodontal diseases in Latin America in general, and Brazil in particular. The principal aims of this study were to: 1) describe the prevalence and severity of periodontal attachment loss and gingival recession, and to assess the contribution of demographic, behavioral, and environmental exposures to the occurrence of periodontal disease outcomes in a sample representative of the urban population in the state of Rio Grande do Sul in south Brazil; and 2) report the epidemiology and risk indicators of aggressive periodontitis in this population. Methods: A representative sample consisting of 1,586 subjects 14-103 years of age (mean 38 y) and comprising 45.3% males and 54.7% females was selected using a multi-stage, probability, cluster sampling strategy. The subjects were interviewed using a structured questionnaire and underwent a full-mouth, six sites per tooth clinical examination in a mobile examination center. Results: Moderate and severe clinical attachment loss and gingival recession were widespread among adults in this population. The prevalence and extent of attachment loss ³5 and ³7 mm were 79% and 52% subjects, and 36% and 16% teeth; and for gingival recession ³3 mm and ³5 mm were 52% and 22% subjects, and 17% and 6% teeth, respectively. Aggressive periodontitis was diagnosed in 5.5% of subjects, which is significantly higher than the reported prevalence in most other populations. Among the main risk indicators for chronic as well as aggressive destructive periodontal diseases were: older age, low socioeconomic status, dental calculus, and smoking. Cigarette smoking accounted for an important part of periodontal disease burden, particularly in adults, and should be considered an important target in any prevention strategy aimed at reducing the burden of periodontal diseases. Partial recording methods consistently underestimated the prevalence of attachment loss in the population, and the extent of underestimation was dependent on the type of system used and the threshold of attachment loss. Conclusions: Destructive periodontal diseases are prevalent in this Brazilian population. Suitable disease prevention and health promotion programs should be established to improve the periodontal health in this population.
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)
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Aims: To estimate the prevalence of symptoms of temporomandibular disorders (TMD) as a function of age and gender, in a representative urban sample from the Brazilian population. Methods: A total of 1,230 inhabitants (51.5% women) aged 15 to 65 years were interviewed by a validated phone survey. Sample size had been previously calculated. TMD symptoms were assessed through five questions, as recommended by the American Academy of Orofacial Pain, in an attempt to identify possible TMD. Data were derived by age and gender. Prevalence of each TMD symptom, and of combination of symptoms, was calculated. Results: At least one TMD symptom was reported by 39.2% of the individuals. Pain related to TMD was noted by 25.6% of the population. Temporomandibular joint (TMJ) sound was the most common symptom of TMD, followed by TMJ pain and masticatory muscle pain. All symptoms were more prevalent in women than in men. With men used as the reference, a relative risk (RR) of at least one TMD symptom in women was 1.31 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.14 to 1.52). When at least two symptoms were present, the RR was 1.93 (95% CI = 1.49 to 2.51). For three or more TMD symptoms, the RR was 2.49 (95% CI = 1.67 to 3.71). Women were also more likely than men to have TMD pain (RR = 1.78; 9% CI = 1.45 to 2.18). Conclusion: Individual symptoms, as well as a combination of TMD symptoms, are prevalent in the Brazilian urban population and are more frequent in women than in men. Additional studies should focus on risk factors for and relevance of TMD for the sufferers. J OROFAC PAIN 2010;24:270-278
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Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)