Unemployment: natural rate epicycles or hysteresis?

This paper argues that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, in which equilibrium unemployment is determined by “structural” variables alone, is wrong: it is both implausible and inconsistent with the evidence. Instead, equilibrium unemployment is haunted by hysteresis. The curious history of the natural rate hypothesis is considered, curious because the authors of the hypothesis thought hysteresis to be relevant. The various methods that have been used to model hysteresis in economic systems are outlined, including the Preisach model with its selective, erasable memory properties. The evidence regarding hysteresis effects on output and unemployment is then reviewed. The implications for macroeconomic policy, and for the macroeconomics profession, are discussed.

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Scanning electron microscopy of the dorsal vessel of Panstrongylus megistus (Burmeister, 1835) (Hemiptera: Reduviidae)

In this study we analyzed the microanatomy of the dorsal vessel of the triatomine Panstrongylus megistus. The organ is a tuble anatomically divided into an anterior aorta anad a posterior heart, connected to the body wall through 8 pairs of alary muscles. The heart is divided in 3 chambers by means of 2 pairs of cardiac valves. a pair of ostia can be observed in the lateral wall of each chamber. A bundle of nerve fibers was found outside the organ, running dorsally along its major axis. A group of longitudinal muscular fibers was found in the ventral portion of the vessel. The vessel was found to be lined both internally and externally by pericardial cells covered by a thin laminar membrane. Inseide the vessel the pericardial cells were disposed in layers and on the outside they formed clusters or rows.

Skeletal Muscle Mitochondrial and Lipid Droplet Volume Density: Validity of Electron Microscopy Point-counting Measurements

Mitochondrial (M) and lipid droplet (L) volume density (vd) are often used in exercise research. Vd is the volume of muscle occupied by M and L. The means of calculating these percents are accomplished by applying a grid to a 2D image taken with transmission electron microscopy; however, it is not known which grid best predicts these values. PURPOSE: To determine the grid with the least variability of Mvd and Lvd in human skeletal muscle. METHODS: Muscle biopsies were taken from vastus lateralis of 10 healthy adults, trained (N=6) and untrained (N=4). Samples of 5-10mg were fixed in 2.5% glutaraldehyde and embedded in EPON. Longitudinal sections of 60 nm were cut and 20 images were taken at random at 33,000x magnification. Vd was calculated as the number of times M or L touched two intersecting grid lines (called a point) divided by the total number of points using 3 different sizes of grids with squares of 1000x1000nm sides (corresponding to 1µm2), 500x500nm (0.25µm2) and 250x250nm (0.0625µm2). Statistics included coefficient of variation (CV), 1 way-BS ANOVA and spearman correlations. RESULTS: Mean age was 67 ± 4 yo, mean VO2peak 2.29 ± 0.70 L/min and mean BMI 25.1 ± 3.7 kg/m2. Mean Mvd was 6.39% ± 0.71 for the 1000nm squares, 6.01% ± 0.70 for the 500nm and 6.37% ± 0.80 for the 250nm. Lvd was 1.28% ± 0.03 for the 1000nm, 1.41% ± 0.02 for the 500nm and 1.38% ± 0.02 for the 250nm. The mean CV of the three grids was 6.65% ±1.15 for Mvd with no significant differences between grids (P>0.05). Mean CV for Lvd was 13.83% ± 3.51, with a significant difference between the 1000nm squares and the two other grids (P<0.05). The 500nm squares grid showed the least variability between subjects. Mvd showed a positive correlation with VO2peak (r = 0.89, p < 0.05) but not with weight, height, or age. No correlations were found with Lvd. CONCLUSION: Different size grids have different variability in assessing skeletal muscle Mvd and Lvd. The grid size of 500x500nm (240 points) was more reliable than 1000x1000nm (56 points). 250x250nm (1023 points) did not show better reliability compared with the 500x500nm, but was more time consuming. Thus, choosing a grid with square size of 500x500nm seems the best option. This is particularly relevant as most grids used in the literature are either 100 points or 400 points without clear information on their square size.

Imaging liver and brain glycogen metabolism at the nanometer scale.

In mammals, glycogen synthesis and degradation are dynamic processes regulating blood and cerebral glucose-levels within a well-defined physiological range. Despite the essential role of glycogen in hepatic and cerebral metabolism, its spatiotemporal distribution at the molecular and cellular level is unclear. By correlating electron microscopy and ultra-high resolution ion microprobe (NanoSIMS) imaging of tissue from fasted mice injected with (13)C-labeled glucose, we demonstrate that liver glycogenesis initiates in the hepatocyte perinuclear region before spreading toward the cell membrane. In the mouse brain, we observe that (13)C is inhomogeneously incorporated into astrocytic glycogen at a rate ~25 times slower than in the liver, in agreement with prior bulk studies. This experiment, using temporally resolved, nanometer-scale imaging of glycogen synthesis and degradation, provides greater insight into glucose metabolism in mammalian organs and shows how this technique can be used to explore biochemical pathways in healthy and diseased states. FROM THE CLINICAL EDITOR: By correlating electron microscopy and ultra-high resolution ion microprobe imaging of tissue from fasting mice injected with (13)C-labeled glucose, the authors demonstrate a method to image glycogen metabolism at the nanometer scale.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Reduction of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion rate by statins.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of statins on the annual expansion rate (ER) of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients under regular surveillance for small AAA between January 2000 and September 2007, in the Department of Angiology, Lausanne University Hospital, were included. Inclusion criteria were baseline abdominal aortic diameter between 25 and 55 mm, at least two measurements of AAA diameter and a minimum follow up of 6 months. Patients with Marfan disease, infectious or inflammatory AAA, and patients with prior AAA repair were excluded. The influence of statin use and other factors on ER were examined by bivariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 589 patients who underwent an abdominal aorta evaluation, 94 patients (89 % men, mean age 69.1 years) were finally included in the analysis. Baseline AAA size was 39.9 ± 7.7 mm (mean±SE) and 48.7 ± 8.4 mm at end of follow-up. Patients had a regular aneurysm size assessment during 38.5 ± 27.7 months. Mean ER was 3.59 mm/y (± 2.81). The 50 patients who were treated with statin during the study period had a lower ER compared to the 44 controls (2.91 vs 4.37 mm/year, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the considerable individual variations in the AAA expansion rate, and emphasizes the need for regular aortic diameter assessments. In this study, patients treated with statin demonstrate a significant decrease in the ER compared to controls. This finding need to be evaluated in prospective interventional studies powered to demonstrate the potential benefit of statin treatment.

Delayed phagocytosis and bacterial killing in Chediak-Higashi syndrome neutrophils detected by a fluorochrome assay: ultrastructural aspects

The few studies already published about phagocyte functions in Chediak-Higashi syndrome (CHS) has stated that neutrophils present slow rate of bacterial killing but normally ingest microorganisms. In the present study, both phagocytosis and killing of Staphylococcus aureus were verified to be in neutrophils from two patients with CHS when these functions were simultaneously evaluated by a fluorochrome phagocytosis assay. Electron microscopic examination showed morphologic differences among neutophils from CHS patients and normal neutrophils regarding the cytoplasmic structures and the aspects of the phagolysosomes. It was noteworthy the presence of giant phagolysosomes enclosing bacteria in active proliferation commonly observed in CHS neutrophils after 45 min of phagocytosis, wich corresponded with the impaired bactericidal activity of these leukocytes. The present results suggest that phagocytosis may also be defective in CHS, and point out to the sensitivity of the fluorochrome phagocytosis assay and its application in clinical laboratories.

Description of Trichuris travassosi n. sp. (Nematoda:Trichurinae) from a brasilian rodent, by light and scanning electron microscopy

A new species of a trichurid nematode Trichuris travassosi n. sp., recovered from a wild rodent in the State of Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, is described and compared to T. myocastoris (Enigk, 1933) and their differentiation was on the basis of detailed morphometrical study. Oryzomys nigripes (Olfers, 1818) is a new host record for the genus. The denomination spicular prepuce is proposed to designate the structure previously named spicular sheath and, conversely, spicular sheath to indicate the cuticle that convers the spicule.

Report of Balanorchis anastrophus in Pará state with surface topography by scanning electron microscopy

Balanorchis anastrophus Fischoeder, 1901 from the reticulum from Bos taurus is reported for the first time in State of Pará, Brazil. The surface topography as revealed by scanning electron microscopy is presented.