Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war

We propose an elementary theory of wars fought by fully rational contenders. Two parties play a Markov game that combines stages of bargaining with stages where one side has the ability to impose surrender on the other. Under uncertainty and incomplete information, in the unique equilibrium of the game, long confrontations occur: war arises when reality disappoints initial (rational) optimism, and it persist longer when both agents are optimists but reality proves both wrong. Bargaining proposals that are rejected initially might eventually be accepted after several periods of confrontation. We provide an explicit computation of the equilibrium, evaluating the probability of war, and its expected losses as a function of i) the costs of confrontation, ii) the asymmetry of the split imposed under surrender, and iii) the strengths of contenders at attack and defense. Changes in these parameters display non-monotonic effects.

Marriage as a Rat Race: Noisy Pre-Marital Investments with Assortative Matching

We study the incentive to invest to improve marriage prospects, in a frictionless marriage market with non-transferable utility. Stochastic returns to investment eliminate the multiplicity of equilibria in models with deterministic returns, and a unique equilibrium exists under reasonable conditions. Equilibrium investment is efficient when the sexes are symmetric. However, when there is any asymmetry, including an unbalanced sex ratio, investments are generically excessive. For example, if there is an excess of boys, then there is parental over-investment in boys and under-investment in girls, and total investment will be excessive.

Two Studies on the Interplay between Social Preferences and Individual Biological Features

Biological features and social preferences have been studied separately as factors influencing human strategic behaviour. We run two studies in order to explore the interplay between these two sets of factors. In the first study, we investigate to what extent social preferences may have some biological underpinnings. We use simple one-shot distribution experiments to attribute subjects one out of four types of social preferences: Self-interested (SI), Competitive (C), Inequality averse (IA) and Efficiency-seeking (ES). We then investigate whether these four groups display differences in their levels of facial Fluctuating Asymmetry (FA) and in proxies for exposure to testosterone during phoetal development and puberty. We observe that development-related biological features and social preferences are relatively independent. In the second study, we compare the relative weight of these two set of factors by studying how they affect subjects’ behaviour in the Ultimatum Game (UG). We find differences in offers made and rejection rates across the four social preference groups. The effect of social preferences is stronger than the effect of biological features even though the latter is significant. We also report a novel link between facial masculinity (a proxy for exposure to testosterone during puberty) and rejection rates in the UG. Our results suggest that biological features influence behaviour both directly and through their relation with the type of social preferences that individuals hold.

Who is the fairest of them all? The independent effect of attractive features and self-perceived attractiveness on cooperation among women

The present paper analyzes the extent to which attractiveness-related variables affect cooperative behavior in women. Cooperativeness is evaluated through a Prisoner's Dilemma Game (PDG). We consider several morphometric variables related to attractiveness: Fluctuating Asymmetry (FA), Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR, Body Mass Index (BMI) and Facial Femininity (FF). These variables have been shown to predict human behavior. We also include as a control variable a score for Self-Perceived Attractiveness (SPA). We test differences in these variables according to behavior in the PDG. Our results reveal that low FA women cooperate less frequently in the PDG. We also find that women with lower WHR are more cooperative. This result contradicts the expected relation between WHR and behavior in the PDG. We show that this effect of WHR on cooperation operates through its influence on the expectation that participants hold on the cooperative intent of their counterpart. In addition, we show that the effect of attractive features on cooperation occurs independently of the participants' perception of their own appeal. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of the evolution of cooperative behavior and under the hypothesis that attractiveness is a reliable indicator of phenotypic quality.

How private is private information? The ability to spot deception in an economic game

We provide experimental evidence on the ability to detect deceit in a buyer-seller game with asymmetric information. Sellers have private information about the buyer's valuation of a good and sometimes have incentives to mislead buyers. We examine if buyers can spot deception in face-to-face encounters. We vary (1) whether or not the buyer can interrogate the seller, and (2) the contextual richness of the situation. We find that the buyers' prediction accuracy is above chance levels, and that interrogation and contextual richness are important factors determining the accuracy. These results show that there are circumstances in which part of the information asymmetry is eliminated by people's ability to spot deception.

Electroencephalographic source imaging: a prospective study of 152 operated epileptic patients.

Electroencephalography is mandatory to determine the epilepsy syndrome. However, for the precise localization of the irritative zone in patients with focal epilepsy, costly and sometimes cumbersome imaging techniques are used. Recent small studies using electric source imaging suggest that electroencephalography itself could be used to localize the focus. However, a large prospective validation study is missing. This study presents a cohort of 152 operated patients where electric source imaging was applied as part of the pre-surgical work-up allowing a comparison with the results from other methods. Patients (n = 152) with >1 year postoperative follow-up were studied prospectively. The sensitivity and specificity of each imaging method was defined by comparing the localization of the source maximum with the resected zone and surgical outcome. Electric source imaging had a sensitivity of 84% and a specificity of 88% if the electroencephalogram was recorded with a large number of electrodes (128-256 channels) and the individual magnetic resonance image was used as head model. These values compared favourably with those of structural magnetic resonance imaging (76% sensitivity, 53% specificity), positron emission tomography (69% sensitivity, 44% specificity) and ictal/interictal single-photon emission-computed tomography (58% sensitivity, 47% specificity). The sensitivity and specificity of electric source imaging decreased to 57% and 59%, respectively, with low number of electrodes (<32 channels) and a template head model. This study demonstrated the validity and clinical utility of electric source imaging in a large prospective study. Given the low cost and high flexibility of electroencephalographic systems even with high channel counts, we conclude that electric source imaging is a highly valuable tool in pre-surgical epilepsy evaluation.

Modeling Dependence Structure and Forecasting Market Risk with Dynamic Asymmetric Copula

We investigate the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure between equity portfolios from the US and UK. We demonstrate the statistical significance of dynamic asymmetric copula models in modelling and forecasting market risk. First, we construct “high-minus-low" equity portfolios sorted on beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. We find substantial evidence of dynamic and asymmetric dependence between characteristic-sorted portfolios. Second, we consider a dynamic asymmetric copula model by combining the generalized hyperbolic skewed t copula with the generalized autoregressive score (GAS) model to capture both the multivariate non-normality and the dynamic and asymmetric dependence between equity portfolios. We demonstrate its usefulness by evaluating the forecasting performance of Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall for the high-minus-low portfolios. From back-testing, e find consistent and robust evidence that our dynamic asymmetric copula model provides the most accurate forecasts, indicating the importance of incorporating the dynamic and asymmetric dependence structure in risk management.

Bilateral symmetry of radial pulse in high-level tennis players: implications for the validity of central aortic pulse wave analysis.

BACKGROUND: Reconstruction of the central aortic pressure wave from the noninvasive recording of the radial pulse with applanation tonometry has become a standard tool in the field of hypertension. It is not presently known whether recording the radial pulse on the dominant or the nondominant side has any effect on such reconstruction. METHOD: We carried out radial applanation tonometry on both forearms in young, healthy, male volunteers, who were either sedentary (n = 11) or high-level tennis players (n = 10). The purpose of including tennis players was to investigate individuals with extreme asymmetry between the dominant and nondominant upper limb. RESULTS: In the sedentary individuals, forearm circumference and handgrip strength were slightly larger on the dominant (mean +/- SD respectively 27.9 +/- 1.5 cm and 53.8 +/- 10 kg) than on nondominant side (27.3 +/- 1.6 cm, P < 0.001 vs. dominant, and 52.1 +/- 11 kg, P = NS). In the tennis players, differences between sides were more conspicuous (forearm circumference: dominant 28.0 +/- 1.7 cm nondominant 26.4 +/- 1.5 cm, P < 0.001; handgrip strength 61.4 +/- 10.8 vs. 53.4 +/- 9.7 kg, P < 0.001). We found that in both sedentary individuals and tennis players, the radial pulse had identical shape on both sides and, consequently, the reconstructed central aortic pressure waveforms, as well as derived indices of central pulsatility, were not dependent on the side where applanation tonometry was carried out. CONCLUSION: Evidence from individuals with maximal asymmetry of dominant vs. nondominant upper limb indicates that laterality of measurement is not a methodological issue for central pulse wave analysis carried out with radial applanation tonometry.

Muntatge i caracterització d'una placa DSSC: Buscant potència

Treball de recerca realitzat per alumnes d'ensenyament secundari i guardonat amb un Premi CIRIT per fomentar l'esperit científic del Jovent l'any 2009. Els objectius inicials foren la construcció d una 'Cèl•lula Solar Sensibilitzada mitjançant un Colorant’ (DSSC) amb el tint d una col llombarda i posterior caracterització segons el dossier 'Nanocrystalline Solar Cell Kit: Recreating Photosynthesis’. Les DSSC (Dye Sensitized Solar Cell) són un tipus de cèl•lules que imiten els principis que la fotosíntesis ha fet servir exitosament durant més de 3,5 bilions d anys. S’han construït algunes DSSC i se n’ha provat la seva eficiència. El seu funcionament es basa en l’energia d’un fotó que excita un electró i el fa saltar de nivell energètic fins que es desprèn de l’àtom de colorant, deixant un forat en la molècula. Aquest electró lliure passa a través de la capa de TiO2 fins arribar a la càrrega on es genera el corrent elèctric. Tot seguit, l’electró arriba al contra-elèctrode i és aquí on entra en contacte amb l’electròlit, el mediador iode/triiode. Aquest regenera l’electró, que anteriorment ha saltat del colorant, oxidant-se ell mateix.

Varicocèle de l'enfant et de l'adolescent [Children and adolescent varicocele]

About 15% of adolescent males present with a varicocele. It rarely causes symptoms and is often diagnosed on the routine physical examination. There are evidences of an association between duration of a varicocele and testicular impairment. Surgical treatment is indicated in case of testicular growth arrest, testicular asymmetry, grade II or more, symptoms i.e. pain or swelling, parental or patient's anxiety. Several treatment options include open surgery (with or without micro-anastomosis), laparoscopy, embolization by interventional radiology, antegrade scrotal sclerotherapy. Informations should include a recurrence rate as hight as 15% whatever the technique may be, postoperative hydroceles and some testicular atrophies. Those complications can be delayed.

Positive occipital sharp transients of sleep (POSTS): a reappraisal.

OBJECTIVE: Positive occipital sharp transients of sleep (POSTS) are considered a normal variant seen in non-REM sleep; their asymmetrical presentation and relationship with EEG abnormalities have received scarce attention to date. We analyzed these features in a large prospective EEG recordings' sample. METHODS: In this case-control study, over 6 months we collected consecutive patients showing POSTS on their EEG. They were matched with consecutive control subjects (two for each). Demographical data, asymmetries for POSTS and alpha activity, and lateralized or diffuse occurrence of EEG abnormalities (slowing, epileptiform transients) were compared among these two groups. RESULTS: Out of 1254 EEG studies, 102 (8%) patients showed POSTS. They were younger (p=0.031), and more likely to show EEG abnormalities (p=0.008) - including epileptiform transients (p=0.002) - than controls. However, this relationship was influenced by age and recording length. Thirty nine POSTS recordings (38%) had a consistent amplitude asymmetry, but this was not associated with specific EEG abnormalities or alpha asymmetry. CONCLUSION: POSTS are a normal EEG variant, occurring in less than 10% of unselected EEG recordings, mostly in younger adults, without gender predominance. Amplitude asymmetries are found in over one third of subjects. SIGNIFICANCE: POSTS asymmetry, as opposed to other sleep transients, should be considered as normal.

Mathematical description of bacterial traveling pulses

The Keller-Segel system has been widely proposed as a model for bacterial waves driven by chemotactic processes. Current experiments on E. coli have shown precise structure of traveling pulses. We present here an alternative mathematical description of traveling pulses at a macroscopic scale. This modeling task is complemented with numerical simulations in accordance with the experimental observations. Our model is derived from an accurate kinetic description of the mesoscopic run-and-tumble process performed by bacteria. This model can account for recent experimental observations with E. coli. Qualitative agreements include the asymmetry of the pulse and transition in the collective behaviour (clustered motion versus dispersion). In addition we can capture quantitatively the main characteristics of the pulse such as the speed and the relative size of tails. This work opens several experimental and theoretical perspectives. Coefficients at the macroscopic level are derived from considerations at the cellular scale. For instance the stiffness of the signal integration process turns out to have a strong effect on collective motion. Furthermore the bottom-up scaling allows to perform preliminary mathematical analysis and write efficient numerical schemes. This model is intended as a predictive tool for the investigation of bacterial collective motion.

Imaging of experience-dependent structural plasticity in the mouse neocortex in vivo

The functionality of adult neocortical circuits can be altered by novel experiences or learning. This functional plasticity appears to rely on changes in the strength of neuronal connections that were established during development. Here we will describe some of our studies in which we have addressed whether structural changes, including the remodeling of axons and dendrites with synapse formation and elimination, could underlie experience-dependent plasticity in the adult neocortex. Using 2-photon laser-scanning microscopes and transgenic mice expressing GFP in a subset of pyramidal cells, we have observed that a small subset of dendritic spines continuously appear and disappear on a daily basis, whereas the majority of spines persists for months. Axonal boutons from different neuronal classes displayed similar behavior, although the extent of remodeling varied. Under baseline conditions, new spines in the barrel cortex were mostly transient and rarely survived for more than a week. However, when every other whisker was trimmed, the generation and loss of persistent spines was enhanced. Ultrastructural reconstruction of previously imaged spines and boutons showed that new spines slowly form synapses. New spines persisting for a few days always had synapses, whereas very young spines often lacked synapses. New synapses were predominantly found on large, multi-synapse boutons, suggesting that spine growth is followed by synapse formation, preferentially on existing boutons. Altogether our data indicate that novel sensory experience drives the stabilization of new spines on subclasses of cortical neurons and promotes the formation of new synapses. These synaptic changes likely underlie experience-dependent functional remodeling of specific neocortical circuits.

Split sex ratios in the social Hymenoptera: a meta-analysis

The study of sex allocation in social Hymenoptera (ants, bees, and wasps) provides an excellent opportunity for testing kin-selection theory and studying conflict resolution. A queen-worker conflict over sex allocation is expected because workers are more related to sisters than to brothers, whereas queens are equally related to daughters and sons. If workers fully control sex allocation, split sex ratio theory predicts that colonies with relatively high or low relatedness asymmetry (the relatedness of workers to females divided by the relatedness of workers to males) should specialize in females or males, respectively. We performed a meta-analysis to assess the magnitude of adaptive sex allocation biasing by workers and degree of support for split sex ratio theory in the social Hymenoptera. Overall, variation in relatedness asymmetry (due to mate number or queen replacement) and variation in queen number (which also affects relatedness asymmetry in some conditions) explained 20.9% and 5% of the variance in sex allocation among colonies, respectively. These results show that workers often bias colony sex allocation in their favor as predicted by split sex ratio theory, even if their control is incomplete and a large part of the variation among colonies has other causes. The explanatory power of split sex ratio theory was close to that of local mate competition and local resource competition in the few species of social Hymenoptera where these factors apply. Hence, three of the most successful theories explaining quantitative variation in sex allocation are based on kin selection.

School composition effects in Spain

Drawing on PISA data of 2006, this study examines the impact of socio-economic school composition on science test score achievement for Spanish students in compulsory secondary schools. We define school composition in terms of the average parental human capital of students in the same school. These contextual peer effects are estimated using a semi-parametric methodology, which enables the spillovers to affect all the parameters of the educational production function. We also deal with the potential problem of self-selection of student into schools, using an artificial sorting that we argue to be independent from unobserved student’s abilities. The results indicate that the association between socio-economic school composition and test score results is clearly positive and significantly higher when computed with the semi-parametric approach. However, we find that the endogenous sorting of students into schools plays a fundamental role, given that the spillovers are significantly reduced when this selection process is ruled out from our measure of school composition effects. Specifically, the estimations suggest that the contextual peer effects are moderately positive only in those schools where the socio-economic composition is considerably elevated. In addition, we find some evidence of asymmetry of how the external effects and the sorting process actually operate, which seem affect in a different way males and females as well as high and low performance students.