Microstructure Order Flow: Statistical and Economic Evaluation of Nonlinear Forecasts

In this paper we propose a novel empirical extension of the standard market microstructure order flow model. The main idea is that heterogeneity of beliefs in the foreign exchange market can cause model instability and such instability has not been fully accounted for in the existing empirical literature. We investigate this issue using two di¤erent data sets and focusing on out- of-sample forecasts. Forecasting power is measured using standard statistical tests and, additionally, using an alternative approach based on measuring the economic value of forecasts after building a portfolio of assets. We nd there is a substantial economic value on conditioning on the proposed models.

A control flow prototype for a dose recommending device for chronic myeloid leukemia patients

In this paper we present a prototype of a control flow for an a posteriori drug dose adaptation for Chronic Myelogenous Leukemia (CML) patients. The control flow is modeled using Timed Automata extended with Tasks (TAT) model. The feedback loop of the control flow includes the decision-making process for drug dose adaptation. This is based on the outputs of the body response model represented by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm for drug concentration prediction. The decision is further checked for conformity with the dose level rules of a medical guideline. We also have developed an automatic code synthesizer for the icycom platform as an extension of the TIMES tool.

Allergic asthma to thaumatin : case report

Background: Thaumatin is a protein originally isolated from an African fruit (the "katemfe"), but various thaumatin-like proteins have been found in apples, grapes, kiwis and olives, etc. Thaumatin has natural sweetening properties and is about 2000 to 3000 times more potent than sucrose. It is therefore used in the food industry, particularly in the processing of low-calories sweeteners. Recently, thaumatin-like proteins have been described as a new family of allergens. Methods: We report the case of a 44-year-old woman occupationally exposed to thaumatin, who developed an allergy to it. The first symptom was an urticaria, which she presented two years after the factory she was working in (a sweeteners manufacturer), started to use thaumatin. Later on, she perceived an acute episode of a sensation of lump in the throat, persisting mild dyspnea, dysphonia and cough. Despite normal peak flow values and a normal chest examination, her general practitioner treated her with local corticoids and systemic antihistaminic drugs, which improved the symptoms. As occupational physicians, we were asked about the likelihood of an occupational disease. We visited her working place, and assessed the exposure to thaumatin. We concluded that the probability for a delayed asthma related to a thaumatin exposure was high, despite the lack of an exposure test. Results: The case was submitted to the insurance company as an occupational disease, and was accepted as such. It was therefore decided not to perform the exposure test, given the absence of true benefit for the patient, who was advised to switch job, and to avoid any exposure to thaumatin in the future. A few months later, the symptoms had completely disappeared. Conclusion: Some molecules only used in specific industry sectors, can cause health problems, such as allergy, but also toxic impairments, etc. The occupational physician, trained to find out which products and identify which molecules are involved, can contribute to the diagnosis, and help make possible a safe return to work for the patient.

Positive solutions of nonlinear problems involving the square root of the Laplacian

We consider nonlinear elliptic problems involving a nonlocal operator: the square root of the Laplacian in a bounded domain with zero Dirichlet boundary conditions. For positive solutions to problems with power nonlinearities, we establish existence and regularity results, as well as a priori estimates of Gidas-Spruck type. In addition, among other results, we prove a symmetry theorem of Gidas-Ni-Nirenberg type.

Problèmes d'échantillonnage lors d'une enquête sur la plombémie d'enfants citadin [Sampling problems in a survey of blood lead levels in city children].

A study on lead pollution was carried out on a sample of ca. 300 city children. This paper presents the errors producing bias in the sample. It is emphasized that, in Switzerland, the difference between the Swiss and the migrant population (the latter being mainly Italian and Spanish) must be taken into account.

The Commons and anti-commons problems in the tourism economy

Countries specialised in tourism tend to face two problems with contradictory effects: the commons and the anti-commons, which lead to tourism over- and under-production, respectively. This paper develops a two-period model to analyse the joint effects of both problems on a small and remote tourism economy. Congestion and the complementariness between foreign transport and local tourism services are key features in this type of markets. As a result, direct selling and the presence of foreign tour-operators emerge as possible market arrangements with different implications in terms of welfare and public intervention. Four main results are obtained. First, in the direct selling situation the optimal policy depends on the relative importance of the problems. Second, the existence of tour-operators always leads to tourism over-production. Third, the presence of a single tour-operator does not solve the congestion problem. Lastly, the switch from several tour-operators to a single one is welfare reducing.

Some variational problems from image processing

"Vegeu el resum a l'inici del document del fitxer adjunt."

Is intra-operative blood flow predictive for early failure of radiocephalic arteriovenous fistula?

BACKGROUND: For over 50 years, radiocephalic wrist arteriovenous fistulae (RCAVF) have been the primary and best vascular access for haemodialysis. Nevertheless, early failure due to thrombosis or non-maturation is a major complication resulting in their abandonment. This prospective study was designed to investigate the predictive value of intra-operative blood flow on early failure of primary RCAVF before the first effective dialysis. METHODS: We enrolled patients undergoing creation of primary RCAVF for haemodialysis based on the pre-operative ultrasound vascular mapping discussed in a multidisciplinary approach. Intra-operative blood flow measurement was systematically performed once the anastomosis had been completed using a transit-time ultrasonic flowmeter. During the follow-up, blood flow was estimated by colour flow ultrasound at various intervals. Any events related to the RCAVF were recorded. RESULTS: Autogenous RCAVFs (n = 58) in 58 patients were constructed and followed up for an average of 30 days. Thrombosis and non-maturation occurred in eight (14%) and four (7%) patients, respectively. The intra-operative blood flow in functioning RCAVFs was significantly higher compared to non-functioning RCAVFs (230 vs 98 mL/min; P = 0.007), as well as 1 week (753 vs 228 mL/min; P = 0.0008) and 4 weeks (915 vs 245 mL/min, P < 0.0001) later. Blood flow volume measurements with a cut-off value of 120 mL/min had a sensitivity of 67%, specificity of 75% and positive predictive value of 91%. CONCLUSIONS: Blood flow <120 mL has a good predictive value for early failure in RCAVF. During the procedure, this cut-off value may be used to select appropriately which RCAVF should be investigated in the operation theatre in order to correct in real time any abnormality.

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale

Debris flow susceptibility mapping at a regional scale has been the subject of various studies. The complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of process-based models for a first assessment. GISbased approaches associating an automatic detection of the source areas and a simple assessment of the debris flow spreading may provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at the regional scale. The use of a digital elevation model, with a 10 m resolution, for the Canton de Vaud territory (Switzerland), a lithological map and a land use map, has allowed automatic identification of the potential source areas. The spreading estimates are based on basic probabilistic and energy calculations that allow to define the maximal runout distance of a debris flow.

Lamella formation and emigration from the water by a laboratory colony of Biomphalaria glabrata (SAY) in flow-through system

Lamella formation and emigration from the water were investigated in juvenile Biomphalaria glabrata reared at two temperatures in aquaria with a constant water flow. Most snails (97.4%) reared at the lower temperature (21- C) formed lamella at the shell aperture and emigrated from the water, whereas only 10.1% did so at 25- C. Eighty percent of emigrations at 21- C occurred within a period of 15 days, 70-85 days after hatching. A comparison of the studies done so far indicates that the phenomenon may be affected by the ageing of snail colonies kept in the laboratory and their geographic origin, rather than the rearing conditions. This hypothesis, however, requires experimental confirmation.

A rapid, reliable method of evaluating growth and viability of intraerythrocytic protozoan hemoparasites using fluorescence flow cytometry

Fluorescence flow cytometry was employed to assess the potential of a vital dye, hydroethiedine, for use in the detection and monitoring of the viability of hemoparasites in infected erythrocytes, using Babesia bovis as a model parasite. The studies demonstrated that hydroethidine is taken up by B. bovis and metabolically converted to the DNA binding fluorochrone, ethidium. Following uptake of the dye, erythrocytes contamine viable parasites were readily distinguished and quantitated. Timed studies with the parasiticidal drug, Ganaseg, showed that it is possible to use the fluorochrome assay to monitor the effects of the drug on the rate of replication and viability of B. bovis in culture. The assay provides a rapid method for evaluation of the in vitro effect of drugs on hemoparasites and for analysis of the effect of various components of the immune response, such as lymphokines, monocyte products, antibodies, and effector cells (T, NK, LAK, ADCC) on the growth and viability of intraerythrocytic parasites.