The 30-year TAMSAT African rainfall climatology and time-series (TARCAT) dataset

African societies are dependent on rainfall for agricultural and other water-dependent activities, yet rainfall is extremely variable in both space and time and reoccurring water shocks, such as drought, can have considerable social and economic impacts. To help improve our knowledge of the rainfall climate, we have constructed a 30-year (1983–2012), temporally consistent rainfall dataset for Africa known as TARCAT (TAMSAT African Rainfall Climatology And Time-series) using archived Meteosat thermal infra-red (TIR) imagery, calibrated against rain gauge records collated from numerous African agencies. TARCAT has been produced at 10-day (dekad) scale at a spatial resolution of 0.0375°. An intercomparison of TARCAT from 1983 to 2010 with six long-term precipitation datasets indicates that TARCAT replicates the spatial and seasonal rainfall patterns and interannual variability well, with correlation coefficients of 0.85 and 0.70 with the Climate Research Unit (CRU) and Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) gridded-gauge analyses respectively in the interannual variability of the Africa-wide mean monthly rainfall. The design of the algorithm for drought monitoring leads to TARCAT underestimating the Africa-wide mean annual rainfall on average by −0.37 mm day−1 (21%) compared to other datasets. As the TARCAT rainfall estimates are historically calibrated across large climatically homogeneous regions, the data can provide users with robust estimates of climate related risk, even in regions where gauge records are inconsistent in time.

Are we there yet? Exploring empowerment at the microscale in the South African wine industry

Empowerment is a standard but ambiguous element of development rhetoric and so, through the socially complex and contested terrain of South Africa, this paper explores its potential to contribute to inclusive development. Investigating micro-level engagements with the national strategy of Broad-Based Black Economic Empowerment (B-BBEE) in the South African wine industry highlights the limitations, but also potential, of this single domain approach. However, latent paternalism, entrenched interests and a ‘dislocated blackness’ maintain a complex racial politics that shapes both power relations and the opportunities for transformation within the industry. Nonetheless, while B-BBEE may not, in reality, be broad-based its manifestations are contributing to challenging racist structures and normalising changing attitudes. This paper concludes that, to be transformative, empowerment needs to be re-embedded within South Africa as a multi-scalar, multi-dimensional dialogue and, despite the continuation of structural constraints, positions the local as a critical scale at which to initiate broader social change.

Sources, sinks, and transatlantic transport of North African dust aerosol: a multimodel analysis and comparison with remote sensing data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

Potential vorticity in warm conveyor belt outflow

Warm conveyor belts (WCBs) are the main ascending air masses within extratropical cyclones. They often exhibit strong condensation and precipitation, associated with ascent on large scales or embedded convection. Most of the air outflows into the upper troposphere as part of a ridge. Such ridges are an integral part of Rossby waves propagating along the tropopause and are identified with a negative potential vorticity (PV) anomaly and associated anticyclonic circulation. It has been argued that diabatic modification of PV in WCBs has an important influence on the extent of the ridge, propagation of Rossby waves and weather impacts downstream. Following the coherent ensemble of trajectories defining a WCB, PV is expected to increase with time while below the level of maximum latent heating and then decrease as trajectories ascend above the heating maximum. In models, it is found that the net change is approximately zero, so that the average PV of the WCB outflow is almost equal to the PV of its inflow. Here, the conditions necessary for this evolution are explored analytically using constraints arising from the conservation of circulation. It is argued that the net PV change is insensitive to the details of diabatic processes and the PV maximum midway along a WCB depends primarily on the net diabatic transport of mass from the inflow to the outflow layer. The main effect of diabatic processes within a WCB is to raise the isentropic level of the outflow, rather than to modify PV.

Vegetation and soils feedbacks on the response of the African monsoon response to orbital forcing in early to middle Holocene

Fossil pollen, ancient lake sediments and archaeological evidence from Africa indicate that the Sahel and Sahara regions were considerably wetter than today during the early to middle Holocene period, about 12,000 to 5,000 years ago1–4. Vegetation associated with the modern Sahara/Sahel boundary was about 5° farther north, and there were more and larger lakes between 15 and 30° N. Simulations with climate models have shown that these wetter conditions were probably caused by changes in Earth's orbital parameters that increased the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of solar radiation in the Northern Hemisphere, enhanced the land-ocean temperature contrast, and thereby strengthened the African summer monsoon5–7. However, these simulations underestimated the consequent monsoon enhancement as inferred from palaeorecords4. Here we use a climate model to show that changes in vegetation and soil may have increased the climate response to orbital forcing. We find that replacing today's orbital forcing with that of the mid-Holocene increases summer precipitation by 12% between 15 and 22° N. Replacing desert with grassland, and desert soil with more loamy soil, further enhances the summer precipitation (by 6 and 10% respectively), giving a total precipitation increase of 28%. When the simulated climate changes are applied to a biome model, vegetation becomes established north of the current Sahara/Sahel boundary, thereby shrinking the area of the Sahara by 11% owing to orbital forcing alone, and by 20% owing to the combined influence of orbital forcing and the prescribed vegetation and soil changes. The inclusion of the vegetation and soil feedbacks thus brings the model simulations and palaeovegetation observations into closer agreement.

The representation of the West-African Monsoon vertical cloud structure in the Met Office Unified Model: an evaluation with CloudSat

Weather and climate model simulations of the West African Monsoon (WAM) have generally poor representation of the rainfall distribution and monsoon circulation because key processes, such as clouds and convection, are poorly characterized. The vertical distribution of cloud and precipitation during the WAM are evaluated in Met Office Unified Model simulations against CloudSat observations. Simulations were run at 40-km and 12-km horizontal grid length using a convection parameterization scheme and at 12-km, 4-km, and 1.5-km grid length with the convection scheme effectively switched off, to study the impact of model resolution and convection parameterization scheme on the organisation of tropical convection. Radar reflectivity is forward-modelled from the model cloud fields using the CloudSat simulator to present a like-with-like comparison with the CloudSat radar observations. The representation of cloud and precipitation at 12-km horizontal grid length improves dramatically when the convection parameterization is switched off, primarily because of a reduction in daytime (moist) convection. Further improvement is obtained when reducing model grid length to 4 km or 1.5 km, especially in the representation of thin anvil and mid-level cloud, but three issues remain in all model configurations. Firstly, all simulations underestimate the fraction of anvils with cloud top height above 12 km, which can be attributed to too low ice water contents in the model compared to satellite retrievals. Secondly, the model consistently detrains mid-level cloud too close to the freezing level, compared to higher altitudes in CloudSat observations. Finally, there is too much low-level cloud cover in all simulations and this bias was not improved when adjusting the rainfall parameters in the microphysics scheme. To improve model simulations of the WAM, more detailed and in-situ observations of the dynamics and microphysics targeting these non-precipitating cloud types are required.

Washington's growth and opportunity act or Beijing's 'Overarching Brilliance': will African governments choose neither?

Growing criticism of Chinese engagement in Africa centres on the risk to African development posed by China's aggressive export policies and the threat to the Washington Consensus and African governance posed by China's 'non-interference' approach to engagement. This article challenges both these assumptions. The growth of Chinese trade has a wide range of impacts, depending on the sector in question, and the current terms of trade Washington extends to Africa under the auspices of the AGOA do not result in uniformly beneficial effects. With regard to African governance, it is argued that the 'Washington Consensus' has been based on competing and often muddled perceptions of US national interest. This fact tempers the regret felt at Washington's loss of influence over the good governance agenda. Evidence is provided to show that China can work within properly regulated countries and industries, if the African governments in question can provide fair, efficient and transparent environments in which to operate.

Interhemispheric dynamics of the African rainbelt during the late Quaternary

The spatial pattern of precipitation variability in tropical and subtropical Africa over the late Quaternary has long been debated. Prevailing hypotheses variously infer (1) insolation-controlled asymmetry of wet phases between hemispheres, (2) symmetric contraction and expansion of the tropical rainbelt, and (3) independent control on moisture available in Southern Africa via sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean. In this study we use climate-model simulations covering the last glacial cycle (120 kyr) with HadCM3 and the multi-model ensembles from PMIP3 (the Palaeoclimate Model Intercomparison Project) to investigate the long-term behaviour of the African rainbelt, and test these simulations against existing empirical palaeohydrological records. Through regional model-data comparisons we find evidence for the validity of several hypotheses, with various proposed processes occurring concurrently but with different regional emphasis (e.g. asymmetric shifts at the seasonal extremes and symmetric expansions/ contractions towards West equatorial regions). Crucially, variations in rainfall are associated with multiple forcing mechanisms that vary in their dominance both spatially and temporally over the glacial cycle; an important consideration when interpreting and extrapolating from often relatively short palaeoenvironmental records.

'The African Presence in Caribbean Literature' revisited: recovering the politics of imagined co-belonging 1930–2005

Working outward from Edward Kamau Brathwaite’s landmark 1974 essay, “The African Presence in Caribbean Literature,” this article explores the fuller history of the idea of Africa in anglophone Caribbean critical and literary works from the 1930s to the 2000s. It demonstrates that earlier, now forgotten Caribbean critics drew on imperfect and incomplete Caribbean literary imaginings of Africa to frame a counter-colonial politics of identity. The essay also brings back into view writings by Una Marson, Victor Stafford Reid, and Derek Walcott that expressed a different politics of solidarity based on the shared experience of colonial violence. Readings of recent literary works by Charlotte Williams and Nalo Hopkinson reveal the contemporary crafting of this relation around a heightened awareness of both presence and loss, history and imagination. Importantly, this gathering of sources and perspectives allows for an appreciation of the role that a reach toward Africa has played in articulations of Caribbeanness and its complex patterning of cultural co-belonging.

Dynamic picture of the inner asteroid belt: implications for the density, size and taxonomic distributions of real objects

In this paper, we construct a dynamic portrait of the inner asteroidal belt. We use information about the distribution of test particles, which were initially placed on a perfectly rectangular grid of initial conditions, after 4.2 Myr of gravitational interactions with the Sun and five planets, from Mars to Neptune. Using the spectral analysis method introduced by Michtchenko et al., the asteroidal behaviour is illustrated in detail on the dynamical, averaged and frequency maps. On the averaged and frequency maps, we superpose information on the proper elements and proper frequencies of real objects, extracted from the data base, AstDyS, constructed by Milani and Knezevic. A comparison of the maps with the distribution of real objects allows us to detect possible dynamical mechanisms acting in the domain under study; these mechanisms are related to mean-motion and secular resonances. We note that the two- and three-body mean-motion resonances and the secular resonances (strong linear and weaker non-linear) have an important role in the diffusive transportation of the objects. Their long-lasting action, overlaid with the Yarkovsky effect, may explain many observed features of the density, size and taxonomic distributions of the asteroids.

A late Neoproterozoic paleomagnetic pole for the Congo craton: Tectonic setting, paleomagnetism and geochronology of the Nola dike swarm (Central African Republic)

New structural, geochronological and paleomagnetic data were obtained on dolerite dikes of the Nola region (Central African Republic) at the northern border of the Congo craton. In this region metavolcanic, successions were thrust southward onto the craton during the Panafrican orogenic events. Our structural data reveal at least two structural klippes south of the present-day limits of the Panafrican nappe suggesting that it has once covered the whole Nola region, promoting the pervasive hydrothermal green-schist metamorphism observed in the underlying cratonic basement and also in the intrusive dolerite dikes. Paleomagnetic measurements revealed a stable dual-polarity low-inclination magnetization component in nine dikes (47 samples), carried by pyrrhotite and magnetite. This component corresponds to a paleopole at 304.8 degrees E and 61.8 degrees S (dp = 5.4, dm = 10.7) graded at 2 = 6. Both metamorphism and magnetic resetting were dated by the Ar-40/Ar-39 method on amphibole grains separated from the dikes at 571 +/- 6 Ma. The Nola pole is the first well-dated paleomagnetic pole for the Congo craton between 580 and 550 Ma. It marks a sudden change in direction of the Congo craton apparent polar wander path at the waning stages of the Panafrican orogenic events. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Decomposition in tropical forests: a pan-tropical study of the effects of litter type, litter placement and mesofaunal exclusion across a precipitation gradient

1. Litter decomposition recycles nutrients and causes large fluxes of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere. It is typically assumed that climate, litter quality and decomposer communities determine litter decay rates, yet few comparative studies have examined their relative contributions in tropical forests. 2. We used a short-term litterbag experiment to quantify the effects of litter quality, placement and mesofaunal exclusion on decomposition in 23 tropical forests in 14 countries. Annual precipitation varied among sites (760-5797 mm). At each site, two standard substrates (Raphia farinifera and Laurus nobilis) were decomposed in fine- and coarse-mesh litterbags both above and below ground for approximately 1 year. 3. Decomposition was rapid, with >95% mass loss within a year at most sites. Litter quality, placement and mesofaunal exclusion all independently affected decomposition, but the magnitude depended upon site. Both the average decomposition rate at each site and the ratio of above- to below-ground decay increased linearly with annual precipitation, explaining 60-65% of among-site variation. Excluding mesofauna had the largest impact on decomposition, reducing decomposition rates by half on average, but the magnitude of decrease was largely independent of climate. This suggests that the decomposer community might play an important role in explaining patterns of decomposition among sites. Which litter type decomposed fastest varied by site, but was not related to climate. 4. Synthesis. A key goal of ecology is to identify general patterns across ecological communities, as well as relevant site-specific details to understand local dynamics. Our pan-tropical study shows that certain aspects of decomposition, including average decomposition rates and the ratio of above- to below-ground decomposition are highly correlated with a simple climatic index: mean annual precipitation. However, we found no relationship between precipitation and effects of mesofaunal exclusion or litter type, suggesting that site-specific details may also be required to understand how these factors affect decomposition at local scales.