Genetic variation and phylogeographic history of Picea likiangensis revealed by RAPD markers

Repeated cycles of retreat and recolonization during the Quaternary ice ages are thought to have greatly influenced current species distributions and their genetic diversity. It remains unclear how this climatic oscillation has affected the distribution of genetic diversity between populations of wind-pollinated conifers in the Qinghai-Tibetan region. In this study, we investigated the within-species genetic diversity and phylogenetic relationships of Picea likiangensis, a dominant forest species in this region using polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers. Our results suggest that this species has high overall genetic diversity, with 85.42% of loci being polymorphic and an average expected heterozygosity (H (E)) of 0.239. However, there were relatively low levels of polymorphism at population levels and the differences between populations were not significant, with percentages of polymorphic bands (PPB) ranging from 46.88 to 69.76%, Nei's gene diversity (H (E)) from 0.179 to 0.289 and Shannon's indices (Hpop) from 0.267 to 0.421. In accordance with our proposed hypothesis, a high level of genetic differentiation among populations was detected based on Nei's genetic diversity (G (ST) = 0.256) and AMOVA analysis (Phi (st) = 0.236). Gene flow between populations was found to be limited (Nm = 1.4532) and far lower than reported for other conifer species with wide distribution ranges from other regions. No clusters corresponding to three morphological varieties found in the south, north and west, respectively, were detected in either UPGMA or PCO analyses. Our results suggest that this species may have had different refugia during the glacial stages in the southern region and that the northern variety may have multiple origins from these different refugia.

准噶尔盆地热历史与油气

Based on the temperature data from 196 wells and thermal conductivity measurements of 90 rock samples, altogether 35 heat flow data are obtained. The results show that the Junggar basin is a relatively "cold basin" at present. The thermal gradients vary between 11.6 and 26.5 ℃/km, and the thermal conductivity change from 0.17 to 3.6 W/mK. Heat flow ranges from 23.4 to 53.7 mW/m~2 with a mean of 42.3 ± 7.7 mW/m~2. The heat flow pattern shows that heat flow is higher on the uplifts and lower on the depressions. The overall low present-day heat flow in the Junggar Basin reflects its stable cratonic basement and Cenozoic tectonothermal evolution characterized by lithospheric thickening, thrust and fault at shallow crust as well as consequently quick subsidence during the Late Cenozoic. The study of the basin thermal history, which is one of the important content of the basin analysis, reveals not only the process of the basin's tectonothermal evolution, but also the thermal evolution of the source rocks based on the hydrocarbon generation models. The latter is very helpful for petroleum exploration. The thermal history of the Junggar basin has been reconstructed through the heat flow based method using the VR and Fission track data. The thermal evolutions of main source rocks (Permian and Jurassic) and the formations of the Permian and the Jurassic petroleum systems as well as the influences of thermal fields to petroleum system also have been discussed in this paper. Thermal history reconstruction derived from vitrinite reflectance data indicates that the Paleozoic formations experienced their maximum paleotemperature during Permian to Triassic with the higher paleoheat flow of around 70-85 mW/m~2 and the basin cooled down to the present low heat flow. The thermal evolution put a quite important effect on the formation and evolution of the petroleum system. The Jurassic petroleum system in the Junggar basin is quite limited in space and the source rocks of Middle-Lower Jurassic entered oli-window only along the foreland region of the North Tianshan belt, where the Jurassic is buried to the depth of 5-7 km. By contrast, the Middle-Lower Permian source rocks have initiated oil and gas generation in latter Permian to Triassic, and the major petroleum systems, like Mahu-West Pen 1 Well, was formed prior to Triassic when later Paleozoic formation reached the maximum paleotemperature.

断陷湖盆缓坡带成藏模式研究

Halfgraben-like depressions have multiple layers of subtle traps, multiple coverings of oil-bearing series and multiple types of reservoirs. But these reservoirs have features of strong concealment and are difficult to explore. For this reason, many scholars contribute efforts to study the pool-forming mechanism for this kind of basins, and establish the basis for reservoir exploration and development. However, further study is needed. This paper takes HuiMin depression as an example to study the pool-forming model for the gentle slope belts of fault-depression lake basins. Applying multi-discipline theory, methods and technologies including sedimentary geology, structural geology, log geology, seismic geology, rock mechanics and fluid mechanics, and furthermore applying the dynamo-static data of oil reservoir and computer means in maximum limitation, this paper, qualitatively and quantitatively studies the depositional system, structural framework, structural evolution, structural lithofacies and tectonic stress field, as well as fluid potential field, sealing and opening properties of controlling-oil faults and reservoir prediction, finally presents a pool-forming model, and develops a series of methods and technologies suited to the reservoir prediction of the gentle slope belt. The results obtained in this paper richen the pool-forming theory of a complex oil-gas accumulative area in the gentle slope belt of a continental fault-depression basin. The research work begins with the study of geometric shape of fracture system, then the structural form, activity stages and time-space juxtaposition of faults with different level and different quality are investigated. On the basis of study of the burial history, subsidence history and structural evolution history, this paper synthesizes the studied results of deposition system, analyses the structural lithofacies of the gentle slope belt in the HuiMing Depression and its controlling roles to oil reservoir in the different structural lithofacies belts in time-space, and presents their evolution patterns. The study of structural stress field and fluid potential field indicates that the stress field has a great change from the Dong Ying stages to nowadays. One marked point among them is that the Dong Ying double peak- shaped nose structures usually were the favorable directional area for oil and gas migration, while the QuDi horst became favorable directional area since the GuanTao stage. Based on the active regular of fractures and the information of crude oil saturation pressure, this paper firstly demonstrates that the pool-forming stages of the LingNan field were prior to the stages of the QuDi field, whici provides new eyereach and thinking for hydrocarbon exploration in the gentle slope belt. The BeiQiao-RenFeng buried hill belt is a high value area with the maximum stress values from beginning to end, thus it is a favorable directional area for oil and gas migration. The opening and sealing properties of fractures are studied. The results obtained demonstrate their difference in the hydrocarbon pool formation. The seal abilities relate not only with the quality, direction and scale of normal stress, with the interface between the rocks of two sides of a fault and with the shale smear factor (SSF), but they relate also with the juxtaposition of fault motion stage and hydrocarbon migration. In the HuiMin gentle slope belt, the fault seal has difference both in different stages, and in different location and depth in the same stage. The seal extent also displays much difference. Therefore, the fault seal has time-space difference. On the basis of study of fault seal history, together with the obtained achievement of structural stress field and fluid potential field, it is discovered that for the pool-forming process of oil and gas in the studied area the fault seal of nowadays is better than that of the Ed and Ng stages, it plays an important role to determine the oil column height and hydrocarbon preservation. However, the fault seal of the Ed and Ng stages has an important influence for the distribution state of oil and gas. Because the influential parameters are complicated and undefined, we adopt SSF in the research work. It well reflects synthetic effect of each parameter which influences fault seal. On the basis of the above studies, three systems of hydrocarbon migration and accumulation, as well as a pool-forming model are established for the gentle slope belt of the HuiMin depression, which can be applied for the prediction of regular patterns of oil-gas migration. Under guidance of the pool-forming geological model for the HuiMin slope belt, and taking seismic facies technology, log constraint evolution technology, pattern recognition of multiple parameter reservoir and discrimination technology of oil-bearing ability, this paper develops a set of methods and technologies suited to oil reservoir prediction of the gentle slope belt. Good economic benefit has been obtained.

东营凹陷辛镇复杂断块油藏形成机制和剩余油分布规律研究

In this paper, the complex faulted-block oil reservoir of Xinzhen area in Dongying depression is systematically studied from basic conditions forming faulted-block oil and gas reservoir integrating geology, seismic, logging and reservoir engineering information and computer; guided by petroleum geology, geomechanics, structural geology and geophysics and other theories. Based on analysis of background condition such as regional strata, structure and petroleum geology, structural research on geometry, kinemaitcs and dynamics, oil-controlling fault research on the seal features, sealing mechanism and sealing pattern, and research on enrichment rules and controlling factors of complex faulted-block oil reservoir are carried out to give out the formation mechanics of oil reservoir of Xinzhen complex faulted-block oil reservoir. As a result, the reservoir formation pattern is established. At the same time, through dissecting the characteristics and hydrocarbon enrichment law of complex faulted-block oil reservoir, and studying its distribution law of remaining oil after entering extra high water-cut period, a set of technologies are formed to predict complex faulted-block oil reservoir and its remaining oil distribution and to enhance oil recovery (EOR). Based on the time relationship between migration of hydrocarbon and trap formation, accumulating period of Xinzhen oil reservoir is determined. The formation of Xinzhen anticlinal trap was prior to the primary migration. This is favorable to formation of Xinzhen anticlinal hydrocarbon reservoir. Meanwhile, because anticline top caving isn't at the sane time as that of moving or faulted-trap forming inner anticline, oil and gas migrated many times and Xinzhen complex faulted-block oil reservoir formed from ES_3~(upper) to EG. Accumulating law and controlling factors of complex faulted-block reservoir are analyzed from many aspects such as regional structure background controlling hydrocarbon accumulating, plastic arch-open structure controlling oil-bearing series and reservoir types, sealing-opening of fault controlling hydrocarbon distribution and structure pattern controlling enriched trap types. Also, we established the structure pattern in Xinzhen a'ea: the arch-open of underlying strata cause expanding fracture. The main block groups developed here are shovel-like normal fault block group in the north area of Xinzhen and its associated graben block group. Block groups dominate the formation and distribution of reservoirs. We studied qualitatively and quantitatively the sealing characteristics, sealing history and sealing mechanism of faults, too. And, the sealing characteristics are evaluated and the distribution pattern of hydrocarbon controlled by faults is researched. Due to movement intensity of big faults, deep falling of downthrown block, high degree of repture and development of fracture, shallow layers close to the downthrown block of secondary faults are unfavorable to hydrocarbon accumulation. This is confirmed by the exploration practice in Xinzhen anticline. In terms of the downthrown blocks of sencondary contemporaneous faults lied in the south and north area of Xinzhen, hydrocarbon is poor close to fracture belt, while it is relatively abundant in tertiary companion faults. Because of long-term movement of faults that control hydrocarbon, fi'om ES3 to EG, six set of oil-bearing series formed. And their opening causes the inhomogeneity in hydrocarbon abundance among each block--in two flanks of anticline reservoirs are abundant while in the axial area, oil and gas are sporadic. There the sealing characteristics control oil-bearing area of oil/gas accumulation and the height of oil reservoir. Longitudinally, oil and gas are enriched in dip-flat areas in mid-plane of faults. It is established that there are four types of accumulating patterns in complex faulted-block oil reservoirs in Xinzhen. The first is accumulating pattern of lithologic oil reservoirs in E~S_3~(mid-lowwer), that is, self-generating-self-reserving-self-covering lithologic trap pattern. The second is drag-anticline accumulating pattern in Xinzhen. The structure traps are drag anticlines formed by the contemporaneous faults of the second basement in the north of Xinzhen, and the multiple source rocks involve Ek_2, Es_4, Es_3 and Es_1 members. The reservoirs are fluvial-delta sandstones of the upper member of Shahejie formation and Guantao formation, covered by regional thick mudstone of the upper member of Guantao formation and MingHuazhen formation. The third is the accumulating pattern of reverse listric fault, the third-degree fault of Xinzhen anticline limb and the reservoirs form reservoir screened by reverse listric faults. The forth is accumulating pattern of crossing faults which form closing or semi-closing faulted-blocks that accumulate hydrocarbon. The technologies of predicting remaining oil in complex faulted-block reservoir during the mid and late development stage is formed. Remaining oil in simple large faulted-blocks enriches in structural high, structural middle, structural low of thick bottom water reservoirs, points near bent edge-fault oftertiary faults and part the fourth ones with big falling displacement, microstructure high place of oil-sandbodies and areas where local well pattern isn't perfect. While that in small complex faulted-blocks enriches near small nose, small high point, angle of small faults, small oil-bearing faulted-blocks without well and areas with non-perfect well pattern. The technologies of enhancing recovery factor in complex faulted-block reservoir during the mid and late development stage is formed as follows: fine reservoir description, drilling adjust wells, designing directional wells, sub-dividing layer series of development, improving flooding pattern, changing water-injection direction and enhancing swept volume, cyclic waterflooding and gas-injection, etc. Here, directional wells include directional deflecting wells, lateral-drilling wells, lateral-drilling horizontal wells and horizontal wells. The results of this paper have been used in exploration and development of Shengli oilfield, and have achieved great social and economic profit, especially in predicting distribution of complex faulted-block reservoir, remaining oil distribution during middle and late stage of development, and in EOR. Applying the achievement of fault-closure research, new hydrocarbon-bearing blocks are discovered in flanks of Dongying central uplift and in complex blocks with proved reserves 15 million tons. With the study of remaining oil distribution law in complex faulted-block reservoirs, recovery factors are increased greatly in Dongxin, Xianhe and Linpan complex faulted-block reservoirs and accumulated oil production increment is 3 million tons.

基于MRF模型的油气储层属性随机建模方法研究

Stochastic reservoir modeling is a technique used in reservoir describing. Through this technique, multiple data sources with different scales can be integrated into the reservoir model and its uncertainty can be conveyed to researchers and supervisors. Stochastic reservoir modeling, for its digital models, its changeable scales, its honoring known information and data and its conveying uncertainty in models, provides a mathematical framework or platform for researchers to integrate multiple data sources and information with different scales into their prediction models. As a fresher method, stochastic reservoir modeling is on the upswing. Based on related works, this paper, starting with Markov property in reservoir, illustrates how to constitute spatial models for catalogued variables and continuum variables by use of Markov random fields. In order to explore reservoir properties, researchers should study the properties of rocks embedded in reservoirs. Apart from methods used in laboratories, geophysical means and subsequent interpretations may be the main sources for information and data used in petroleum exploration and exploitation. How to build a model for flow simulations based on incomplete information is to predict the spatial distributions of different reservoir variables. Considering data source, digital extent and methods, reservoir modeling can be catalogued into four sorts: reservoir sedimentology based method, reservoir seismic prediction, kriging and stochastic reservoir modeling. The application of Markov chain models in the analogue of sedimentary strata is introduced in the third of the paper. The concept of Markov chain model, N-step transition probability matrix, stationary distribution, the estimation of transition probability matrix, the testing of Markov property, 2 means for organizing sections-method based on equal intervals and based on rock facies, embedded Markov matrix, semi-Markov chain model, hidden Markov chain model, etc, are presented in this part. Based on 1-D Markov chain model, conditional 1-D Markov chain model is discussed in the fourth part. By extending 1-D Markov chain model to 2-D, 3-D situations, conditional 2-D, 3-D Markov chain models are presented. This part also discusses the estimation of vertical transition probability, lateral transition probability and the initialization of the top boundary. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify related discussions. The fifth part, based on the fourth part and the application of MRF in image analysis, discusses MRF based method to simulate the spatial distribution of catalogued reservoir variables. In the part, the probability of a special catalogued variable mass, the definition of energy function for catalogued variable mass as a Markov random field, Strauss model, estimation of components in energy function are presented. Corresponding digital models are used to specify, or testify, related discussions. As for the simulation of the spatial distribution of continuum reservoir variables, the sixth part mainly explores 2 methods. The first is pure GMRF based method. Related contents include GMRF model and its neighborhood, parameters estimation, and MCMC iteration method. A digital example illustrates the corresponding method. The second is two-stage models method. Based on the results of catalogued variables distribution simulation, this method, taking GMRF as the prior distribution for continuum variables, taking the relationship between catalogued variables such as rock facies, continuum variables such as porosity, permeability, fluid saturation, can bring a series of stochastic images for the spatial distribution of continuum variables. Integrating multiple data sources into the reservoir model is one of the merits of stochastic reservoir modeling. After discussing how to model spatial distributions of catalogued reservoir variables, continuum reservoir variables, the paper explores how to combine conceptual depositional models, well logs, cores, seismic attributes production history.

中学生抑郁和素质、压力、环境因素的关系及其整合模型研究

As a kind of mood, depression is one of the emotions which people experienced usually. Depressive disorder is one of the common mental diseases. There are about 100 million people in the world be disturbed by depression every year. So it is long history that depression is investigated widely in medicine, psychology, and sociology. There are many theorial problems remain to be solved. Viewed from latest vocuments, the development of depression theory is tending to become more complicated. Most of the prior depression theory focused on relation between one factor and depression. Because depressed individuls have various characteristics and factors that cause depression are different, and each factor can explain only part of depression variance, these prior depression theories are defected. As the knowledge about depression accumulated, the view that depression be caused by multifactor is clearer. There is tendency to integrate these cooperational factor into a model while developing a depression theory. In the present study, depression status of 1625 middle school students from junior 1 to senior 3 are measured using Depression Scale of Middle-school Student which is developed by ourselves. From approach of depressive mood, the present study explored depressive diathesis including attributional style, personality, coping style, and self. The relation among depressive diathesis, stress and depression is analysed. The relation between depression and school life adaptation, depression and cohesion, adaptation in family are also analysed from environmental view. At last, relation among environment, stress, depressive diathesis is examined by using covariance structure modelling. Synthesizing the results from the present study, the following conclusions were drawn: (1) There is grade-characteristics in development of depression in middle school students. Depression degree increased with grade. The main reason may be that the stress middle-school students experience increase and self-acceptance decrease with grade; (2) High depressive diathesis is different from low depressive diathesis. the features of high depressive diathesis are that attributing failure to ability or background, low capacity for status, low sociability, low independence, low self-blame, more illusion. The features of low depressive diathesis are that not attributing failure to ability or background, high capacity for status, high sociability, high independence, high self-acceptance, while facing difficulties, using problem-resolving coping strategy, less self-blame, less illusion. Individuals who have high depressive diathesis showed serious depression, and individuals who have low depressive diathesis showed light depression; (3) Depressive diathesis had accumulative effect on depression. More low depressive diathesis, more light is depression. More high depressive diathesis, more serious is depression; (4) Depressive diathesis can predict present depression and future depression. Predicting present depression is more effective than predicting future depression; (5) Individual who has different depressive diathesis experiences different level of stress. Higher the depressive diathesis individual has, higher stress he will experience. Lower the depressive diathesis individual has, lower stress will he experience; (6) There is correlation between life event pressure and depression. Life event pressure can predict a part of variance of depression. Life event pressure has accumulative effect on depression. More life event and higher life event pressure, more serious depression individual will experience; (7) There exits high correlation between depression and school life adaptation which can predict depression; (8) There is high correlative relation between depression and cohesion, adaptation in family which can predict depression; and (9) Environment have more effect on diathesis than on stress. Diathesis has more effect on depression than stress does. The past depression can predict future depression. This study had enlarged the domain of depressive diathesis such as attributional style, personality, coping style, and self, which are analysed wholly. This study had also enriched the connotation of diathesis=stress theory. Above two aspects are theoretical significance of the study. This study provide a framework of mental health educational curriculum in high school and provide the guideline for prevention and cure of depression. It is the practical significance of this study.

On the Dirichlet Prior and Bayesian Regularization

A common objective in learning a model from data is to recover its network structure, while the model parameters are of minor interest. For example, we may wish to recover regulatory networks from high-throughput data sources. In this paper we examine how Bayesian regularization using a Dirichlet prior over the model parameters affects the learned model structure in a domain with discrete variables. Surprisingly, a weak prior in the sense of smaller equivalent sample size leads to a strong regularization of the model structure (sparse graph) given a sufficiently large data set. In particular, the empty graph is obtained in the limit of a vanishing strength of prior belief. This is diametrically opposite to what one may expect in this limit, namely the complete graph from an (unregularized) maximum likelihood estimate. Since the prior affects the parameters as expected, the prior strength balances a "trade-off" between regularizing the parameters or the structure of the model. We demonstrate the benefits of optimizing this trade-off in the sense of predictive accuracy.

A multidisciplinary approach for puzzling over fish connectivity in the Mediterranean Sea: The role of early life history stages of red mullet (Mullus barbatus)

Integrating connectivity patterns into marine ecosystem management is a fundamental step, specially for stock subjected to the combined impacts of human activities (overfishing, habitat degradation, etc.) and climate changes. Thus, management of marine resources must incorporates the spatial scales over which the populations are connected. Notwithstanding, studying these dynamics remains a crucial and hard task and the predictions of the temporal and spatial patterns of these mechanisms are still particularly challenging. This thesis aims to puzzle over the red mullet Mullus barbatus population connectivity in the Western Mediterranean Sea, by implementing a multidisciplinary approach. Otolith sclerochronology, larval dispersal modelling and genetic techniques were gathered in this study. More particularly, this research project focused on early life history stages of red mullet and their role in the characterization of connectivity dynamics. The results show that M. barbatus larval dispersal distances can reach a range of 200 km. The differences in early life traits (i.e. PLD, spawning and settlement dates) observed between various areas of the Western Mediterranean Sea suggest a certain level of larval patchiness, likely due to the occurrence of different spawning pulses during the reproductive period. The dispersal of individuals across distant areas, even not significant in demographic terms, is accountable for the maintenance of the genetic flow among different demes. Fluctuations in the level of exchange among different areas, due to the variability of the source-sink dynamics, could have major implications in the population connectivity patterns. These findings highlight the reliability of combining several approaches and represent a benchmark for the definition of a proper resource management, with considerable engagements in effectively assuring the beneficial effects of the existent and future conservation strategies.

Aspects of Armageddon: An exploration of the role of volcanic eruptions in human history and civilization

Grattan, J.P. (2006) Aspects of Armageddon: An exploration of the role of volcanic eruptions in human history and civilization, Quaternary International 151, 10-18.

Criminal Profiling : A Continuing History

Chapter 1 RAE2008

Effects of prior heavy exercise on V(over dot)O-2 kinetics during heavy exercise are related to changes in muscle activity

Burnley, M., Doust, J.H., Ball, D. and Jones, A.M. (2002) Effects of prior heavy exercise on VO2 kinetics during heavy exercise are related to changes in muscle activity. Journal of Applied Physiology 93, 167-174. RAE2008

Effects of prior warm-up regime on severe-intensity cycling performance

Burnley, M, Doust, J and Jones, A (2005) Effects of Prior Warm-up Regime on Severe-Intensity Cycling Performance. Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise, 37 (5). pp. 838-845. ISSN 1530-0315 RAE2008

Time required for the restoration of normal heavy exercise Vo(2) kinetics following prior heavy exercise

Burnley, M., Doust, J. and Jones, A. (2006). Time required for the restoration of normal heavy exercise Vo(2) kinetics following prior heavy exercise. Journal of Applied Physiology. 101(5), pp.1320-1327 RAE2008

Are There Any Lessons of History?: The English School and the Activity of Being an Historian

Bain, William, 'Are There Any Lessons of History?: The English School and the Activity of Being an Historian', International Politics (2007) 44(5) pp.513-530 RAE2008