Techniques to improve forecasting models: applications to energy demand and price

This thesis is a study of three techniques to improve performance of some standard fore-casting models, application to the energy demand and prices. We focus on forecasting demand and price one-day ahead. First, the wavelet transform was used as a pre-processing procedure with two approaches: multicomponent-forecasts and direct-forecasts. We have empirically compared these approaches and found that the former consistently outperformed the latter. Second, adaptive models were introduced to continuously update model parameters in the testing period by combining ?lters with standard forecasting methods. Among these adaptive models, the adaptive LR-GARCH model was proposed for the fi?rst time in the thesis. Third, with regard to noise distributions of the dependent variables in the forecasting models, we used either Gaussian or Student-t distributions. This thesis proposed a novel algorithm to infer parameters of Student-t noise models. The method is an extension of earlier work for models that are linear in parameters to the non-linear multilayer perceptron. Therefore, the proposed method broadens the range of models that can use a Student-t noise distribution. Because these techniques cannot stand alone, they must be combined with prediction models to improve their performance. We combined these techniques with some standard forecasting models: multilayer perceptron, radial basis functions, linear regression, and linear regression with GARCH. These techniques and forecasting models were applied to two datasets from the UK energy markets: daily electricity demand (which is stationary) and gas forward prices (non-stationary). The results showed that these techniques provided good improvement to prediction performance.

Differences in market-oriented behaviour levels across firms' domestic and export marketing operations:a study of antecedents and consequences

Researchers are beginning to recognise that organisations often have different levels of market orientation across different aspects of their operations. Focusing on firms involved in export marketing, this study examines how market-oriented behaviour differs across firms' domestic and export marketing operations. In this respect, the study is the first of its kind since it investigates three main issues: (1) to what extent do differences exist in firms' levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic markets (i.e., their domestic market-oriented behaviour) and in their export markets (i.e., their export market-oriented behaviour), (2) what are the key drivers of such differences, and (3) what are the performance implications for firms of having different levels of domestic and export market-oriented behaviour. To shed light on these research questions, data were collected from 225 British exporting firms using a mail questionnaire. Structural equation modelling techniques were used to develop and purify measures of all construct of interest, and to test the theoretical models developed. The results indicate that many of businesses sampled have very different levels of market orientation in their domestic and exporting operations: typically, firms tend to be more market-oriented in their domestic markets relative to their export markets. Several key factors were identified as drivers of differences in market orientation levels across firms' domestic and export markets. In particular, it was found that differences were more pronounced when: (i) interfunctional interactions between domestic marketing and export marketing are rare, (ii) when domestic and export marketing follow asymmetric business strategies, (iii) when mutual dependence between the functions is low, (iv) when one or other of the functions dominates the firm's sales, and (v) when there are pronounced differences in the degree to which the domestic and the export markets are experiencing environmental turbulence. The consequences of differences in market-oriented behaviour across firms' domestic and export markets were also studied. The results indicate that overall sales performance of firms (as determined by the composite of firms' domestic sales and export sales performance) is positively related to levels of domestic market-oriented behaviour under high levels of environmental turbulence in firms' domestic markets. However, as domestic market turbulence decreases, so to does the strength of this positive relationship. On the other hand, export market-oriented behaviour provides a positive contribution to firms' overall sales success under conditions of relatively low export market turbulence. As the turbulence in export markets increases, this positive relationship becomes weaker. These findings indicate that there are numerous situations in which it is sub-optimal for firms to have identical levels of market-oriented behaviour in their domestic and exporting operations. The theoretical and practical implications of these findings are discussed.

Evaluation and measurement of multiprocessor systems with shared memory

This study is concerned with several proposals concerning multiprocessor systems and with the various possible methods of evaluating such proposals. After a discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of several performance evaluation tools, the author decides that simulation is the only tool powerful enough to develop a model which would be of practical use, in the design, comparison and extension of systems. The main aims of the simulation package developed as part of this study are cost effectiveness, ease of use and generality. The methodology on which the simulation package is based is described in detail. The fundamental principles are that model design should reflect actual systems design, that measuring procedures should be carried out alongside design that models should be well documented and easily adaptable and that models should be dynamic. The simulation package itself is modular, and in this way reflects current design trends. This approach also aids documentation and ensures that the model is easily adaptable. It contains a skeleton structure and a library of segments which can be added to or directly swapped with segments of the skeleton structure, to form a model which fits a user's requirements. The study also contains the results of some experimental work carried out using the model, the first part of which tests• the model's capabilities by simulating a large operating system, the ICL George 3 system; the second part deals with general questions and some of the many proposals concerning multiprocessor systems.

The dynamics and control of a remotely piloted plan-symmetric helicopter

Prior to the development of a production standard control system for ML Aviation's plan-symmetric remotely piloted helicopter system, SPRITE, optimum solutions to technical requirements had yet to be found for some aspects of the work. This thesis describes an industrial project where solutions to real problems have been provided within strict timescale constraints. Use has been made of published material wherever appropriate, new solutions have been contributed where none existed previously. A lack of clearly defined user requirements from potential Remotely Piloted Air Vehicle (RPAV) system users is identified, A simulation package is defined to enable the RPAV designer to progress with air vehicle and control system design, development and evaluation studies and to assist the user to investigate his applications. The theoretical basis of this simulation package is developed including Co-axial Contra-rotating Twin Rotor (CCTR), six degrees of freedom motion, fuselage aerodynamics and sensor and control system models. A compatible system of equations is derived for modelling a miniature plan-symmetric helicopter. Rigorous searches revealed a lack of CCTR models, based on closed form expressions to obviate integration along the rotor blade, for stabilisation and navigation studies through simulation. An economic CCTR simulation model is developed and validated by comparison with published work and practical tests. Confusion in published work between attitude and Euler angles is clarified. The implementation of package is discussed. dynamic adjustment of assessment. the theory into a high integrity software Use is made of a novel technique basing the integration time step size on error Simulation output for control system stability verification, cross coupling of motion between control channels and air vehicle response to demands and horizontal wind gusts studies are presented. Contra-Rotating Twin Rotor Flight Control System Remotely Piloted Plan-Symmetric Helicopter Simulation Six Degrees of Freedom Motion ( i i)

Forecasting the UK/US exchange rate with divisia monetary models and neural networks

This paper compares the UK/US exchange rate forecasting performance of linear and nonlinear models based on monetary fundamentals, to a random walk (RW) model. Structural breaks are identified and taken into account. The exchange rate forecasting framework is also used for assessing the relative merits of the official Simple Sum and the weighted Divisia measures of money. Overall, there are four main findings. First, the majority of the models with fundamentals are able to beat the RW model in forecasting the UK/US exchange rate. Second, the most accurate forecasts of the UK/US exchange rate are obtained with a nonlinear model. Third, taking into account structural breaks reveals that the Divisia aggregate performs better than its Simple Sum counterpart. Finally, Divisia-based models provide more accurate forecasts than Simple Sum-based models provided they are constructed within a nonlinear framework.

Model evaluation and case series data

We discuss aggregation of data from neuropsychological patients and the process of evaluating models using data from a series of patients. We argue that aggregation can be misleading but not aggregating can also result in information loss. The basis for combining data needs to be theoretically defined, and the particular method of aggregation depends on the theoretical question and characteristics of the data. We present examples, often drawn from our own research, to illustrate these points. We also argue that statistical models and formal methods of model selection are a useful way to test theoretical accounts using data from several patients in multiple-case studies or case series. Statistical models can often measure fit in a way that explicitly captures what a theory allows; the parameter values that result from model fitting often measure theoretically important dimensions and can lead to more constrained theories or new predictions; and model selection allows the strength of evidence for models to be quantified without forcing this into the artificial binary choice that characterizes hypothesis testing methods. Methods that aggregate and then formally model patient data, however, are not automatically preferred to other methods. Which method is preferred depends on the question to be addressed, characteristics of the data, and practical issues like availability of suitable patients, but case series, multiple-case studies, single-case studies, statistical models, and process models should be complementary methods when guided by theory development.

New career models in UK professional service firms:from up-or-out to up-and-going-nowhere?

In this paper, we empirically examine how professional service firms are adapting their promotion and career models to new market and institutional pressures, without losing the benefits of the traditional up-or-out tournament. Based on an in-depth qualitative study of 10 large UK based law firms we find that most of these firms do not have a formal up-or-out policy but that the up-or-out rule operates in practice. We also find that most firms have introduced alternative roles and a novel career policy that offers a holistic learning and development deal to associates without any expectation that unsuccessful candidates for promotion to partner should quit the firm. While this policy and the new roles formally contradict the principle of up-or-out by creating permanent non-partner positions, in practice they coexist. We conclude that the motivational power of the up-or-out tournament remains intact, notwithstanding the changes to the internal labour market structure of these professional service firms.

Data envelopment analysis model for the appraisal and relative performance evaluation of nurses at an intensive care unit

The appraisal and relative performance evaluation of nurses are very important and beneficial for both nurses and employers in an era of clinical governance, increased accountability and high standards of health care services. They enhance and consolidate the knowledge and practical skills of nurses by identification of training and career development plans as well as improvement in health care quality services, increase in job satisfaction and use of cost-effective resources. In this paper, a data envelopment analysis (DEA) model is proposed for the appraisal and relative performance evaluation of nurses. The model is validated on thirty-two nurses working at an Intensive Care Unit (ICU) at one of the most recognized hospitals in Lebanon. The DEA was able to classify nurses into efficient and inefficient ones. The set of efficient nurses was used to establish an internal best practice benchmark to project career development plans for improving the performance of other inefficient nurses. The DEA result confirmed the ranking of some nurses and highlighted injustice in other cases that were produced by the currently practiced appraisal system. Further, the DEA model is shown to be an effective talent management and motivational tool as it can provide clear managerial plans related to promoting, training and development activities from the perspective of nurses, hence increasing their satisfaction, motivation and acceptance of appraisal results. Due to such features, the model is currently being considered for implementation at ICU. Finally, the ratio of the number DEA units to the number of input/output measures is revisited with new suggested values on its upper and lower limits depending on the type of DEA models and the desired number of efficient units from a managerial perspective.

The dynamics of global sourcing : perspectives and practices:6th global sourcing workshop 2012, Courchevel, France, March 12-15, 2012, revised selected papers

This edited book is intended for use by students, academics and practitioners who take interest in the outsourcing and offshoring of information technology and business services and processes. The book offers a review of the key topics in outsourcing and offshoring, populated with practical frameworks that serve as a tool kit for practitioners, academics and students. The range of topics covered in this book is wide and diverse, and represents both client and supplier perspectives on sourcing of global services. Various aspects related to the decision making process (e.g., asset transfer), learning mechanisms and organizational practices for managing outsourcing relationships are discussed in great depth. Contemporary sourcing models, including cloud services, are examined. Client dependency on the outsourcing provider, and social aspects, such as identity, are discussed in detail. Furthermore, resistance in outsourcing and failures are investigated to derive lessons as to how to avoid them and improve efficiency in outsourcing. Topics discussed in this book combine theoretical and practical insights regarding challenges that both clients and vendors face. Case studies from client and vendor organizations are used extensively throughout the book. Last but not least, the book examines current and future trends in outsourcing and offshoring, placing particular attention on the centrality of innovation in sourcing arrangements, and how innovation can be realized in outsourcing. The book is based on a vast empirical base brought together through years of extensive research by leading researchers in information systems, strategic management and operations.

Development of a risk-oriented strategic sourcing (ROSS) framework for the construction and electronics manufacturing industries

Strategic sourcing has increased in importance in recent years, and now plays an important role in companies’ planning. The current volatility in supply markets means companies face multiple challenges involving lock-in situations, supplier bankruptcies or supply security issues. In addition, their exposure can increase due to natural disasters, as witnessed recently in the form of bird flu, volcanic ash and tsunamis. Therefore, the primary focus of this study is risk management in the context of strategic sourcing. The study presents a literature review on sourcing based on the 15 years from 1998–2012, and considers 131 academic articles. The literature describes strategic sourcing as a strategic, holistic process in managing supplier relationships, with a long-term focus on adding value to the company and realising competitive advantage. Few studies discovered the real risk impact and status of risk management in strategic sourcing, and evaluation across countries and industries was limited, with the construction sector particularly under-researched. This methodology is founded on a qualitative study of twenty cases across Ger-many and the United Kingdom from the construction sector and electronics manufacturing industries. While considering risk management in the context of strategic sourcing, the thesis takes into account six dimensions that cover trends in strategic sourcing, theoretical and practical sourcing models, risk management, supply and demand management, critical success factors and the strategic supplier evaluation. The study contributes in several ways. First, recent trends are traced and future needs identified across the research dimensions of countries, industries and companies. Second, it evaluates critical success factors in contemporary strategic sourcing. Third, it explores the application of theoretical and practical sourcing models in terms of effectiveness and sustainability. Fourth, based on the case study findings, a risk-oriented strategic sourcing framework and a model for strategic sourcing are developed. These are based on the validation of contemporary requirements and a critical evaluation of the existing situation. It contemplates the empirical findings and leads to a structured process to manage risk in strategic sourcing. The risk-oriented framework considers areas such as trends, corporate and sourcing strategy, critical success factors, strategic supplier selection criteria, risk assessment, reporting, strategy alignment and reporting. The proposed model highlights the essential dimensions in strategic sourcing and guides us to a new definition of strategic sourcing supported by this empirical study.

Degree of vertical integration and its buffering effects on political uncertainty

The focus of this study is on the governance decisions in a concurrent channels context, in the case of uncertainty. The study examines how a firm chooses to deploy its sales force in times of uncertainty, and the subsequent performance outcome of those deployment choices. The theoretical framework is based on multiple theories of governance, including transaction cost analysis (TCA), agency theory, and institutional economics. Three uncertainty variables are investigated in this study. The first two are demand and competitive uncertainty which are considered to be industry-level market uncertainty forms. The third uncertainty, political uncertainty, is chosen as it is an important dimension of institutional environments, capturing non-economic circumstances such as regulations and political systemic issues. The study employs longitudinal secondary data from a Thai hotel chain, comprising monthly observations from January 2007 – December 2012. This hotel chain has its operations in 4 countries, Thailand, the Philippines, United Arab Emirates – Dubai, and Egypt, all of which experienced substantial demand, competitive, and political uncertainty during the study period. This makes them ideal contexts for this study. Two econometric models, both deploying Newey-West estimations, are employed to test 13 hypotheses. The first model considers the relationship between uncertainty and governance. The second model is a version of Newey-West, using an Instrumental Variables (IV) estimator and a Two-Stage Least Squares model (2SLS), to test the direct effect of uncertainty on performance and the moderating effect of governance on the relationship between uncertainty and performance. The observed relationship between uncertainty and governance observed follows a core prediction of TCA; that vertical integration is the preferred choice of governance when uncertainty rises. As for the subsequent performance outcomes, the results corroborate that uncertainty has a negative effect on performance. Importantly, the findings show that becoming more vertically integrated cannot help moderate the effect of demand and competitive uncertainty, but can significantly moderate the effect of political uncertainty. These findings have significant theoretical and practical implications, and extend our knowledge of the impact on uncertainty significantly, as well as bringing an institutional perspective to TCA. Further, they offer managers novel insight into the nature of different types of uncertainty, their impact on performance, and how channel decisions can mitigate these impacts.

Leadership and organisational outcomes in healthcare

This research examined to what extent and how leadership is related to organisational outcomes in healthcare. Based on the Job Demands-Resource model, a set of hypotheses was developed, which predicted that the effect of leadership on healthcare outcomes would be mediated by job design, employee engagement, work pressure, opportunity for involvement, and work-life balance. The research focused on the National Health Service (NHS) in England, and examined the relationships between senior leadership, first line supervisory leadership and outcomes. Three years of data (2008 – 2010) were gathered from four data sources: the NHS National Staff Survey, the NHS Inpatient Survey, the NHS Electronic Record, and the NHS Information Centre. The data were drawn from 390 healthcare organisations and over 285,000 staff annually for each of the three years. Parallel mediation regressions modelled both cross sectional and longitudinal designs. The findings revealed strong relationships between senior leadership and supervisor support respectively and job design, engagement, opportunity for involvement, and work-life balance, while senior leadership was also associated with work pressure. Except for job design, there were significant relationships between the mediating variables and the outcomes of patient satisfaction, employee job satisfaction, absenteeism, and turnover. Relative importance analysis showed that senior leadership accounted for significantly more variance in relationships with outcomes than supervisor support in the majority of models tested. Results are discussed in relation to theoretical and practical contributions. They suggest that leadership plays a significant role in organisational outcomes in healthcare and that previous research may have underestimated how influential senior leaders may be in relation to these outcomes. Moreover, the research suggests that leaders in healthcare may influence outcomes by the way they manage the work pressure, engagement, opportunity for involvement and work-life balance of those they lead.

Discrete time models of the term structure of interest rates and interest rate contingent claims

In this study, discrete time one-factor models of the term structure of interest rates and their application to the pricing of interest rate contingent claims are examined theoretically and empirically. The first chapter provides a discussion of the issues involved in the pricing of interest rate contingent claims and a description of the Ho and Lee (1986), Maloney and Byrne (1989), and Black, Derman, and Toy (1990) discrete time models. In the second chapter, a general discrete time model of the term structure from which the Ho and Lee, Maloney and Byrne, and Black, Derman, and Toy models can all be obtained is presented. The general model also provides for the specification of an additional model, the ExtendedMB model. The third chapter illustrates the application of the discrete time models to the pricing of a variety of interest rate contingent claims. In the final chapter, the performance of the Ho and Lee, Black, Derman, and Toy, and ExtendedMB models in the pricing of Eurodollar futures options is investigated empirically. The results indicate that the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models outperform the Ho and Lee model. Little difference in the performance of the Black, Derman, and Toy and ExtendedMB models is detected. ^

Design and construction of a portable force-reflecting manual controller for teleoperation systems

A man-machine system called teleoperator system has been developed to work in hazardous environments such as nuclear reactor plants. Force reflection is a type of force feedback in which forces experienced by the remote manipulator are fed back to the manual controller. In a force-reflecting teleoperation system, the operator uses the manual controller to direct the remote manipulator and receives visual information from a video image and/or graphical animation on the computer screen. This thesis presents the design of a portable Force-Reflecting Manual Controller (FRMC) for the teleoperation of tasks such as hazardous material handling, waste cleanup, and space-related operations. The work consists of the design and construction of a prototype 1-Degree-of-Freedom (DOF) FRMC, the development of the Graphical User Interface (GUI), and system integration. Two control strategies - PID and fuzzy logic controllers are developed and experimentally tested. The system response of each is analyzed and evaluated. In addition, the concept of a telesensation system is introduced, and a variety of design alternatives of a 3-DOF FRMC are proposed for future development.

Latent Space and Social Psychological Models of Diffusion

The problem of social diffusion has animated sociological thinking on topics ranging from the spread of an idea, an innovation or a disease, to the foundations of collective behavior and political polarization. While network diffusion has been a productive metaphor, the reality of diffusion processes is often muddier. Ideas and innovations diffuse differently from diseases, but, with a few exceptions, the diffusion of ideas and innovations has been modeled under the same assumptions as the diffusion of disease. In this dissertation, I develop two new diffusion models for "socially meaningful" contagions that address two of the most significant problems with current diffusion models: (1) that contagions can only spread along observed ties, and (2) that contagions do not change as they spread between people. I augment insights from these statistical and simulation models with an analysis of an empirical case of diffusion - the use of enterprise collaboration software in a large technology company. I focus the empirical study on when people abandon innovations, a crucial, and understudied aspect of the diffusion of innovations. Using timestamped posts, I analyze when people abandon software to a high degree of detail.

To address the first problem, I suggest a latent space diffusion model. Rather than treating ties as stable conduits for information, the latent space diffusion model treats ties as random draws from an underlying social space, and simulates diffusion over the social space. Theoretically, the social space model integrates both actor ties and attributes simultaneously in a single social plane, while incorporating schemas into diffusion processes gives an explicit form to the reciprocal influences that cognition and social environment have on each other. Practically, the latent space diffusion model produces statistically consistent diffusion estimates where using the network alone does not, and the diffusion with schemas model shows that introducing some cognitive processing into diffusion processes changes the rate and ultimate distribution of the spreading information. To address the second problem, I suggest a diffusion model with schemas. Rather than treating information as though it is spread without changes, the schema diffusion model allows people to modify information they receive to fit an underlying mental model of the information before they pass the information to others. Combining the latent space models with a schema notion for actors improves our models for social diffusion both theoretically and practically.

The empirical case study focuses on how the changing value of an innovation, introduced by the innovations' network externalities, influences when people abandon the innovation. In it, I find that people are least likely to abandon an innovation when other people in their neighborhood currently use the software as well. The effect is particularly pronounced for supervisors' current use and number of supervisory team members who currently use the software. This case study not only points to an important process in the diffusion of innovation, but also suggests a new approach -- computerized collaboration systems -- to collecting and analyzing data on organizational processes.