Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

N170 Asymmetry as an Index of Inferior Occipital Dysfunction in Patients With Symptomatic Occipital Lobe Epilepsy

Objective: Localizing epileptic foci in posterior brain epilepsy remains a difficult exercise in surgery for epilepsy evaluation. Neither clinical manifestations, neurological, EEG nor neuropsychological evaluations provide strong information about the area of onset, and fast spread of paroxysms often produces mixed features of occipital, temporal and parietal symptoms. We investigated the usefulness of the N170 event-related potential to map epileptic activity in these patients. Methods: A group of seven patients with symptomatic posterior cortex epilepsy were submitted to a high-resolution EEG (78 electrodes), with recordings of interictal spikes and face-evoked N170. Generators of spikes and N170 were localized by source analysis. Range of normal N170 asymmetry was determined in 30 healthy volunteers. Results: In 3 out of 7 patients the N170 inter-hemispheric asymmetry was outside control values. Those were the patients whose spike sources were nearest (within 3 cm) to the fusiform gyrus, while foci further away did not affect the N170 ratio. Conclusions: N170 event-related potential provides useful information about focal cortical dysfunction produced by epileptic foci located in the close neighborhood of the fusiform gyrus, but are unaffected by foci further away. Significance: The N170 evoked by faces can improve the epileptic foci localization in posterior brain epilepsy.

Transfusion-transmitted malaria: case report of asymptomatic donor harboring Plasmodium malariae

Malaria in Brazil is endemic in the Amazon region, but autochthonous cases with low parasitaemia occur in the Atlantic Forest area of the country. According to Brazilian legislation no test is mandatory for blood donors from non-endemic areas. However if they have traveled to malaria transmission regions they are deferred for six months before they can donate. This report describes a transfusion-transmitted malaria case in Sao Paulo, Brazil, where one recipient received infected blood and developed the disease. He lived in Sao Paulo and had no previous transfusion or trips to endemic areas, including those of low endemicity, such as Atlantic Forest. Thick blood smears confirmed Plasmodiummalariae. All donors lived in Sao Paulo and one of them (Donor 045-0) showed positive hemoscopy and PCR. This asymptomatic donor had traveled to Juquia, in the Atlantic Forest area of S ao Paulo State, where sporadic cases of autochthonous malaria are described. DNA assay revealed P. malariae in the donor's (Donor 045-0) blood. Serum archives of the recipient and of all blood donors were analyzed by ELISA using both P. vivax and P. falciparum antigens, and IFAT with P. malariae. Donor 045-0's serum was P. malariae IFAT positive and the P. vivax ELISA was reactive. In addition, two out of 44 donors' archive sera were also P. vivax ELISA reactive. All sera were P. falciparum ELISA negative. This case suggests the need of reviewing donor selection criteria and deferral strategies to prevent possible cases of transfusion-transmitted malaria.

Prevalence of pediculosis capitis in children from a rural school in Yucatan, Mexico

We conducted an analytical cross-sectional survey to estimate the prevalence of and factors associated with active head lice infestation. In total 140 children, aged 6 to 16-years, from a public school in rural Yucatan, Mexico, were examined by wet-combing. A structured questionnaire was used to collect information on individuals and the conditions in the surrounding environment. Head lice infestation was found in 19 out of the 140 children tested (13.6%) and this was associated with both lower income (OR 9.9, 95% CI 2.15-45.79, p = 0.003) and a higher frequency of hair washing (OR 8, 95% CI 1.58-50, p = 0.012). Intersectoral control programs that take into account the socioeconomic differences of children should be implemented.

Health problems awareness during travel among faculty members of a large university in Latin America: preliminary report

Health safety during trips is based on previous counseling, vaccination and prevention of infections, previous diseases or specific problems related to the destination. Our aim was to assess two aspects, incidence of health problems related to travel and the traveler's awareness of health safety. To this end we phone-interviewed faculty members of a large public University, randomly selected from humanities, engineering and health schools. Out of 520 attempts, we were able to contact 67 (12.9%) and 46 (68.6%) agreed to participate in the study. There was a large male proportion (37/44, 84.1%), mature adults mostly in their forties and fifties (32/44, 72.7%), all of them with higher education, as you would expect of faculty members. Most described themselves as being sedentary or as taking occasional exercise, with only 15.9% (7/44) taking regular exercise. Preexisting diseases were reported by 15 travelers. Most trips lasted usually one week or less. Duration of the travel was related to the destination, with (12h) or longer trips being taken by 68.2% (30/44) of travelers, and the others taking shorter (3h) domestic trips. Most travelling was made by air (41/44) and only 31.8% (14/44) of the trips were motivated by leisure. Field research trips were not reported. Specific health counseling previous to travel was reported only by two (4.5%). Twenty seven of them (61.4%) reported updated immunization, but 11/30 reported unchecked immunizations. 30% (9/30) reported travel without any health insurance coverage. As a whole group, 6 (13.6%) travelers reported at least one health problem attributed to the trip. All of them were males travelling abroad. Five presented respiratory infections, such as influenza and common cold, one neurological, one orthopedic, one social and one hypertension. There were no gender differences regarding age groups, destination, type of transport, previous health counseling, leisure travel motivation or pre-existing diseases. Interestingly, the two cases of previous health counseling were made by domestic travelers. Our data clearly shows that despite a significant number of travel related health problems, these highly educated faculty members, had a low awareness of those risks, and a significant number of travels are made without prior counseling or health insurance. A counseling program conducted by a tourism and health professional must be implemented for faculty members in order to increase the awareness of travel related health problems.

Evaluation of the ELISA-F29 test as an early marker of therapeutic efficacy in adults with chronic Chagas disease

This work compared the time at which negative seroconversion was detected by conventional serology (CS) and by the ELISA-F29 test on a cohort of chronic chagasic patients treated with nifurtimox or benznidazole. A retrospective study was performed using preserved serum from 66 asymptomatic chagasic adults under clinical supervision, and bi-annual serological examinations over a mean follow-up of 23 years. Twenty nine patients received trypanocide treatment and 37 remained untreated. The ELISA-F29 test used a recombinant antigen which was obtained by expressing the Trypanosoma cruzi flagellar calcium-binding protein gene in Escherichia coli. Among the untreated patients, 36 maintained CS titers. One patient showed a doubtful serology in some check-ups. ELISA-F29 showed constant reactivity in 35 out of 37 patients and was negative for the patient with fluctuating CS. The treated patients were divided into three groups according to the CS titers: in 13 they became negative; in 12 they decreased and in four they remained unchanged. ELISA-F29 was negative for the first two groups. The time at which negativization was detected was significantly lower for the ELISA-F29 test than for CS, 14.5 ± 5.7 and 22 ± 4.9 years respectively. Negative seroconversion was observed in treated patients only. The results obtained confirm that the ELISA-F29 test is useful as an early indicator of negative seroconversion in treated chronic patients.

Intestinal parasites in a quilombola community of the Northern State of Espírito Santo, Brazil

The aim of this study was to determine the occurrence of intestinal parasites in a quilombola community from the northern Espírito Santo, Brazil. Descendants of slaves who arrived in Brazil in the sixteenth century, this population settled in the municipality of São Mateus in 1858. Fresh fecal samples from 82 individuals who agreed to participate in the study were collected between August 2009 and July 2010, and immediately sent to the Clinical Laboratory of the Centro Universitário Norte do Espírito Santo of the Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo for analysis. Out of all the participants, 36 (43.9%) were male and 46 (56.1%) were female, whose ages ranged from six to 85 years. The study of the occurrence of intestinal parasites indicated that 35 individuals (42.7%) were infected with at least one intestinal parasite. Among helminths, the most frequent were hookworms, with a rate of 14.6%. With regard to protozoa, Entamoeba coli, Entamoeba histolytica/Entamoeba dispar and Endolimax nana stood out, with frequencies of 23.2%, 8.5% and 4.9%, respectively. The occurrence of biparasitism was observed in 13 of the 82 subjects, accounting for 15.8%, and no cases of multiple parasitic infections were observed. It was concluded that the reduction of cases of intestinal diseases due to parasites will only be achieved with the improvement of basic sanitation and quality of life of quilombola populations.

EVOLUTION OF PATIENTS WITH AIDS AFTER cART: CLINICAL AND LABORATORY EVOLUTION OF PATIENTS WITH AIDS AFTER 48 WEEKS OF ANTIRETROVIRAL TREATMENT

SUMMARY Combination Antiretroviral Therapy (cART) aims to inhibit viral replication, delay immunodeficiency progression and improve survival in AIDS patients. The objective of this study was to compare two different schemes of cART, based on plasma viral load (VL) and CD4+ T lymphocyte count, during 48 weeks of treatment. For this purpose, 472 medical charts of a Specialized Outpatient Service were reviewed from 1998 to 2005. Out of these, 58 AIDS patients who had received a triple drug scheme as the initial treatment were included in the study and two groups were formed: Group 1 (G1): 47 individuals treated with two nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitors (NRTI) and one non-nucleoside reverse-transcriptase inhibitor; Group 2 (G2): 11 patients treated with two NRTI and one protease inhibitor. In G1 and G2, 53.2% and 81.8% respectively were patients with an AIDS-defining disease. The T CD4+ lymphocyte count increased progressively up until the 24th week of treatment in all patients, while VL became undetectable in 68.1% of G1 and in 63.6% of G2. The study concluded that the evolutions of laboratory tests were similar in the two treatment groups and that both presented a favorable clinical evolution.

SEROLOGICAL SURVEY OF Ehrlichia SPECIES IN DOGS, HORSES AND HUMANS: ZOONOTIC SCENERY IN A RURAL SETTLEMENT FROM SOUTHERN BRAZIL

SUMMARY The aims of this study were to determine the seroprevalence of Ehrlichia spp. and risk factors for exposure in a restricted population of dogs, horses, and humans highly exposed to tick bites in a Brazilian rural settlement using a commercial ELISA rapid test and two indirect immunofluorescent assays (IFA) with E. canis and E. chaffeensis crude antigens. Serum samples from 132 dogs, 16 horses and 100 humans were used. Fifty-six out of 132 (42.4%) dogs were seropositive for E. canis. Dogs > one year were more likely to be seropositive for E. canis than dogs ≤ one year (p = 0.0051). Ten/16 (62.5%) and 8/16 (50%) horses were seropositive by the commercial ELISA and IFA, respectively. Five out of 100 (5%) humans were seropositive for E. canis and E. chaffeensis. Rhipicephalus sanguineus (n = 291, 97.98%) on dogs and Amblyomma cajennense (n = 25, 96.15%) on horses were the most common ticks found. In conclusion, anti-Ehrlichia spp. antibodies were found in horses; however, the lack of a molecular characterization precludes any conclusion regarding the agent involved. Additionally, the higher seroprevalence of E. canis in dogs and the evidence of anti-Ehrlichia spp. antibodies in humans suggest that human cases of ehrlichiosis in Brazil might be caused by E. canis, or other closely related species.

A PRELIMINARY STUDY ON THE OCCURRENCE OF KERATINOPHILIC FUNGI IN SOILS OF JAMAICA

This report represents the first study of keratinophilic fungi present in soils of Jamaica. Out of the 40 soil samples examined from different habitats, 30 (75%) were positive for the presence of keratinophilic fungi, yielding 36 isolates of keratinophilic fungi. Microsporum gypseum complex (represented by 16 isolates of M. gypseum, and four of M. fulvum) was most frequent, being present in 50% of the samples. A very high occurrence of this dermatophyte in Jamaican soil is of public health significance. The remaining isolates of keratinophilic fungi were represented by Chrysosporium spp (mainly C. indicum and C. tropicum) and Sepedonium sp.

PREVALENCE OF PARACOCCIDIOIDOMYCOSIS INFECTION BY INTRADERMAL REACTION IN RURAL AREAS IN ALFENAS, MINAS GERAIS, BRAZIL

This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of paracoccidioidal infection by intradermal reaction (Delayed-Type Hypersensitivity, DTH) to Paracoccidioides brasiliensis in rural areas in Alfenas, Southern Minas Gerais (MG) State, Brazil, and to assess risk factors (gender, occupation, age, alcohol intake and smoking) associated with infection. We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study using intradermal tests with gp 43 paracoccidioidin in 542 participants, who were previously contacted by local health agents and so spontaneously attended the test. Participants underwent an interview by filling out a registration form with epidemiological data and were tested with an intradermal administration of 0.1 mL of paracoccidioidin in the left forearm. The test was read 48 hours after injection and was considered positive if induration was greater than or equal to 5 mm. Out of 542 participants, 46.67% were positive to the skin test. Prevalence increased in accordance with an increase of age. There was statistical significance only for males. Occupation, alcohol intake and smoking habits were not significantly associated with the risk of paracoccidioidomycosis infection. There is relevance of paracoccidioidomycosis infection in such rural areas, which suggests that further epidemiological and clinical studies on this mycosis should be done in the southern part of Minas Gerais State.

MOLECULAR DETECTION OF Leishmania IN PHLEBOTOMINE SAND FLIES IN A CUTANEOUS AND VISCERAL LEISHMANIASIS ENDEMIC AREA IN NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL

Several phlebotomine sand fly species have been regarded as putative or proven vectors of parasites of the genus Leishmania in Brazil, but data for the northeastern region remains incipient. In this study, a total of 600 phlebotomine sand flies were grouped in pools of 10 specimens each and tested by a Leishmania genus-specific PCR and by a PCR targeting Leishmania (Leishmania) infantum. Fourteen out of 60 pools were positive by the genus-specific PCR, being five pools of L. migonei, seven of L. complexa, one of L. sordellii and one of L. naftalekatzi, which correspond to a minimal infection rate of 2.3% (14/600). Our results, associated with their known anthropophily and their abundance, suggest the participation of L. migonei and L. complexa as vectors of Leishmania in northeastern Brazil. Remarkably, this is the first time in this country that the detection of Leishmania DNA in L. sordellii and L. naftalekatzi has been reported, but future studies are necessary to better understand the significance of these findings.

Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii (DIPTERA: CULICIDAE) IN PERIDOMICILIARY AREA DURING ASYMPTOMATIC MALARIA TRANSMISSION IN THE ATLANTIC FOREST: MOLECULAR IDENTIFICATION OF BLOOD-MEAL SOURCES INDICATES HUMANS AS PRIMARY INTERMEDIATE HOSTS

Anopheles (Kerteszia) cruzii has been implicated as the primary vector of human and simian malarias out of the Brazilian Amazon and specifically in the Atlantic Forest regions. The presence of asymptomatic human cases, parasite-positive wild monkeys and the similarity between the parasites infecting them support the discussion whether these infections can be considered as a zoonosis. Although many aspects of the biology of An. cruzii have already been addressed, studies conducted during outbreaks of malaria transmission, aiming at the analysis of blood feeding and infectivity, are missing in the Atlantic Forest. This study was conducted in the location of Palestina, Juquitiba, where annually the majority of autochthonous human cases are notified in the Atlantic Forest of the state of São Paulo. Peridomiciliary sites were selected for collection of mosquitoes in a perimeter of up to 100 m around the residences of human malaria cases. The mosquitoes were analyzed with the purpose of molecular identification of blood-meal sources and to examine the prevalence of Plasmodium. A total of 13,441 females of An. (Ker.) cruzii were collected. The minimum infection rate was calculated at 0.03% and 0.01%, respectively, for P. vivax and P. malariae and only human blood was detected in the blood-fed mosquitoes analyzed. This data reinforce the hypothesis that asymptomatic human carriers are the main source of anopheline infection in the peridomiciliary area, making the probability of zoonotic transmission less likely to happen.

FALSE-NEGATIVE DENGUE CASES IN RORAIMA, BRAZIL: AN APPROACH REGARDING THE HIGH NUMBER OF NEGATIVE RESULTS BY NS1 AG KITS

Serum samples from 150 NS1-negative (Platelia ELISA) patients presumptively diagnosed with dengue were analyzed by the TaqMan probed real-time reverse transcription PCR (TaqMan qRT-PCR) method. The qRT-PCR positive samples were tested for serotype by semi-nested RT-PCR and a qualitative immunochromatographic assay for IgG and IgM. Molecular detection methods showed 33 (22%) positive samples out of 150 NS1-antigen negative samples. Of these, 72% were collected up to day 2 after the onset of symptoms, when diagnostic sensitivity of NS1-antigen test assays is significantly enhanced. Most of the cases were not characterized as secondary infection. Twenty-eight samples were successfully serotyped, 75% of which for DENV-4, 14% for DENV-2, 7% for DENV-3 and 4% for DENV-1. These findings reaffirm the hyperendemic situation of the state of Roraima and suggest a lower sensitivity of the NS1 test, mainly when DENV-4 is the predominant serotype. Health care providers should therefore be aware of samples tested negative by NS1 antigen assays, especially when clinical symptoms and other laboratory data results show evidence of dengue infection.

PHLEBOTOMINE FAUNA (DIPTERA: PSYCHODIDAE) IN AN AREA OF FISHING TOURISM IN CENTRAL-WESTERN BRAZIL

The aim of this study was to identify behavioral aspects of the sandfly fauna of a fishing tourism area in the municipality of Bonito (MS). Monthly captures were undertaken from December 2009 to November 2010, using automatic CDC type light traps, from 18h00 to 06h00, in a forested area, a savannah area, peridomiciles and animal shelters near peridomiciliary areas. Nyssomyia whitmani was the most frequent out of a total of 6,699 specimens collected, belonging to 16 species, followed by Psathyromyia bigeniculata and Lutzomyia longipalpis, found in all the environments investigated, though in their greatest numbers in the animal shelters. Ny. whitmani exhibited its highest frequencies during the dry months, coincident with the fishing season, when the risk of transmission of cutaneous leishmaniasis for tourists and inhabitants increases. Noteworthy was the finding of two species naturally infected by flagellates: Ny. whitmani and Pa. bigeniculata. The local population and visiting tourists should be warned of the threat posed by leishmaniasis and the health authorities alerted to the need for adopting environmental sanitary measures, especially regarding such animal shelters as they seem to provide favorable conditions to the proliferation, maintenance and breeding opportunities of phlebotomines.