Fiscal policy in Brazil: from counter-cyclical response to crisis

The main goal of this article is to identify the dynamic effects of fiscal policy on output in Brazil from 1997 to 2014, and, more specifically, to estimate those effects when the output falls below its potential level. To do so, we estimate VAR (vector autoregressive) models to generate impulse-response functions and causality/endogeneity tests. Our most remarkable results indicate the following channel of economic policy in Brazil: to foster output, government spending increases causing increases in both tax rates and revenue and the short-term interest rate. A fiscal stimulus via spending seems efficient for economic performance as well as monetary policy; however, the latter operates pro-cyclically in the way we defined here, while the former is predominantly countercyclical. As the monetary shock had a negative effect on GDP growth and GDP growth responded positively to the fiscal shock, it seems that the economic policy has given poise to growth with one hand and taken it with the other one. The monetary policy is only reacting to the fiscal stimuli. We were not able to find any statistically significant response of the output to tax changes, but vice versa seems work in the Brazilian case.

How children's television networks in the United States have adapted to the changing digital habits of their young audiences: A comparative analysis between the Disney Channel and Nickelodeon

In the contemporary societies, many children are drawn to digital media, using it in ways that were initially unfathomable. Changing digital habits among young children have been affiliated to the rapid development, witnessed in the technological field. Prevalently, new forms of technology are being developed and ingrained into young children’s day-to-day activities. The emergence of new forms of technology has in turn prompted significant changes in digital and media consumption particularly, among young children. Changes in media and digital consumption have in turn instigated linear transition in the analogue media industries. This has resulted in analogue media networks working towards digitalizing their industries in a manner that will befit changing digital habits among young children. This report aims at establishing and analyzing the different ways in which children’s digital habits have changed and revolutionized. To achieve this, the report will critically examine the existing scope of knowledge, with reference to changing digital habits among young audiences. Further, the report also aims at establishing the manner in which children television networks have adapted to the changing digital habits among young audiences. To achieve this, the report will focus on two children television networks, Disney channel, and Nickelodeon. After which, a comparative analysis will be conducted to establish the changes made by each of these television channels, with the aim of adapting to the new digital habits among children.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (‘light-touch’) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — i.e., by investors who have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. Thus, ‘fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in (excessively) ‘friendly-regulated’ and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

How the full opening of the capital account to highly liquid financial markets led Latin America to two and a half cycles of ‘mania, panic and crash’

Latin America has recently experienced three cycles of capital inflows, the first two ending in major financial crises. The first took place between 1973 and the 1982 ‘debt-crisis’. The second took place between the 1989 ‘Brady bonds’ agreement (and the beginning of the economic reforms and financial liberalisation that followed) and the Argentinian 2001/2002 crisis, and ended up with four major crises (as well as the 1997 one in East Asia) — Mexico (1994), Brazil (1999), and two in Argentina (1995 and 2001/2). Finally, the third inflow-cycle began in 2003 as soon as international financial markets felt reassured by the surprisingly neo-liberal orientation of President Lula’s government; this cycle intensified in 2004 with the beginning of a (purely speculative) commodity price-boom, and actually strengthened after a brief interlude following the 2008 global financial crash — and at the time of writing (mid-2011) this cycle is still unfolding, although already showing considerable signs of distress. The main aim of this paper is to analyse the financial crises resulting from this second cycle (both in LA and in East Asia) from the perspective of Keynesian/ Minskyian/ Kindlebergian financial economics. I will attempt to show that no matter how diversely these newly financially liberalised Developing Countries tried to deal with the absorption problem created by the subsequent surges of inflow (and they did follow different routes), they invariably ended up in a major crisis. As a result (and despite the insistence of mainstream analysis), these financial crises took place mostly due to factors that were intrinsic (or inherent) to the workings of over-liquid and under-regulated financial markets — and as such, they were both fully deserved and fairly predictable. Furthermore, these crises point not just to major market failures, but to a systemic market failure: evidence suggests that these crises were the spontaneous outcome of actions by utility-maximising agents, freely operating in friendly (light-touched) regulated, over-liquid financial markets. That is, these crises are clear examples that financial markets can be driven by buyers who take little notice of underlying values — investors have incentives to interpret information in a biased fashion in a systematic way. ‘Fat tails’ also occurred because under these circumstances there is a high likelihood of self-made disastrous events. In other words, markets are not always right — indeed, in the case of financial markets they can be seriously wrong as a whole. Also, as the recent collapse of ‘MF Global’ indicates, the capacity of ‘utility-maximising’ agents operating in unregulated and over-liquid financial market to learn from previous mistakes seems rather limited.

Essays on health care reform, wealth inequality, and demography

This thesis contains three chapters. The first chapter uses a general equilibrium framework to simulate and compare the long run effects of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) and of health care costs reduction policies on macroeconomic variables, government budget, and welfare of individuals. We found that all policies were able to reduce uninsured population, with the PPACA being more effective than cost reductions. The PPACA increased public deficit mainly due to the Medicaid expansion, forcing tax hikes. On the other hand, cost reductions alleviated the fiscal burden of public insurance, reducing public deficit and taxes. Regarding welfare effects, the PPACA as a whole and cost reductions are welfare improving. High welfare gains would be achieved if the U.S. medical costs followed the same trend of OECD countries. Besides, feasible cost reductions are more welfare improving than most of the PPACA components, proving to be a good alternative. The second chapter documents that life cycle general equilibrium models with heterogeneous agents have a very hard time reproducing the American wealth distribution. A common assumption made in this literature is that all young adults enter the economy with no initial assets. In this chapter, we relax this assumption – not supported by the data – and evaluate the ability of an otherwise standard life cycle model to account for the U.S. wealth inequality. The new feature of the model is that agents enter the economy with assets drawn from an initial distribution of assets. We found that heterogeneity with respect to initial wealth is key for this class of models to replicate the data. According to our results, American inequality can be explained almost entirely by the fact that some individuals are lucky enough to be born into wealth, while others are born with few or no assets. The third chapter documents that a common assumption adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models is that the population is stable at steady state, that is, its relative age distribution becomes constant over time. An open question is whether the demographic assumptions commonly adopted in these models in fact imply that the population becomes stable. In this chapter we prove the existence of a stable population in a demographic environment where both the age-specific mortality rates and the population growth rate are constant over time, the setup commonly adopted in life cycle general equilibrium models. Hence, the stability of the population do not need to be taken as assumption in these models.

Direitos sociais e Bolsa Família na ordem constitucional brasileira: virtudes e fragilidades de um "meta-direito"

Apesar de uma Constituição carregada de direitos sociais visando à transformação da sociedade brasileira, foi somente a partir de 2003 que o país ganhou destaque internacional nas ações de combate à pobreza e desigualdade, tornando-se uma referência. O grande protagonista teria sido o Programa Bolsa Família (PBF), um programa de transferência de renda condicionada que, combinado aos direitos sociais, teria permitido o alívio imediato de situações de extrema pobreza, mas também o desenvolvimento do capital humano atingindo resultados positivos multidimensionais nos seus mais de 10 anos de existência. Tal processo iniciou um debate acerca da necessidade de institucionalizar o programa como uma política de Estado, que para alguns interlocutores significaria transformar o PBF em um “direito” aos moldes dos direitos sociais, impondo uma obrigação aos governos futuros. Diante disso, este trabalho busca identificar, do ponto de vista jurídico e comparado aos direitos sociais, quais as vantagens e desvantagens do PBF na sua configuração atual. Compondo o movimento que busca compreender o papel do direito nas políticas públicas, adotando uma abordagem intra e interdisciplinar, e uma perspectiva funcional; a reflexão é alicerçada em três “eixos”: a cidadania, a judicialização e a vinculação orçamentária. Esse “tripé” foi escolhido em função da estrutura constitucional acerca dos direitos sociais, que em uma leitura funcional representam uma obrigação de fazer ao Estado para a concretização de uma noção de cidadania abrangente; uma dotação orçamentária vinculativa, garantido que parte da receita será destinada a ações de cumprimento dessas obrigações; e os instrumentos para adjudicação, permitindo a exigência dessas ações estatais pelos cidadãos. Assim, este trabalho não buscar descrever ou tentar prescrever a natureza ou alcance das obrigações que a transformação do PBF em direito geraria ao Estado; mas sim refletir sobre as vantagens e desvantagens dessa eventual mudança do programa diante das características estruturais do país, do modelo de sociedade abstratamente desenhado na lei maior e de nossa cultura jurídica acerca dos direitos sociais.

3-Hydroxy-4, 5-dimethyl-2 (5 H)-furanone levels in fortified Madeira wines: Relationship to sugar content

The maturation of Madeira wines usually involves exposure to relatively high temperatures and humidity levels >70%, which affect the aroma and flavor composition and lead to the formation of the typical and characteristic bouquet of these wines. To estimate the levels of sotolon [3-hydroxy4,5-dimethyl-2(5 H )-furanone] and their behavior over time, 86 aged Madeira wines samples (1-25 years old), with different sugar concentrations, respectively, 90 g L-1 for Boal, 110 g L-1 for Malvazia, 25 g L -1 for Sercial, and 65 g L-1 for Verdelho varieties, were analyzed. Isolation was performed by liquid-liquid extraction with dichloromethane followed by chromatographic analysis by GC-MS. The reproducibility of the method was found to be 4.9%. The detection and quantification limits were 1.2 and 2.0 µgL-1, respectively. The levels of sotolon found ranged from not detected to 2000 µgL-1 for wines between 1 and 25 years old. It was observed that during aging, the concentration of sotolon increased with time in a linear fashion ( r ) 0.917). The highest concentration of sotolon was found in wines with the highest residual sugar contents, considering the same time of storage. The results show that there is a strong correlation between sotolon and sugar derivatives: furfural, 5-methylfurfural, 5-hydroxymethylfurfural, and 5-ethoxymethylfurfural. These compounds are also well correlated with wine aging. These findings indicate that the kinetics of sotolon formation is closely related with residual sugar contents, suggesting that this molecule may come from a component like sugar.

Lysossomal membrane stability of the brown mussel Perna perna (Linnaeus) (Mollusca, Bivalvia) exposed to the anionic surfactant Linear Alkylbenzene Sulphonate (LAS).

The effects of the Linear Alkylbenzene Sulphonate (LAS) were evaluated on the mussel Perna perna (Linnaeus, 1758), using a cellular level biomarker. The Neutral Red Retention Time (NRRT) assay was used to estimate effects at cellular levels. Significant effects were observed for the NRRT assay, even in low concentrations. The effects at cellular level were progressive, suggesting that the organisms are not capable to recover of such increasing effects. Additionally, the results show that the levels of LAS observed for Brazilian coastal waters may chronically affect the biota.

Physiological responses of the brown mussel Perna perna (Mollusca, Bivalvia) exposed to the anionic surfactant linear alkylbenzene sulphonate (LAS).

The effects of the Linear Alkylbenzene Sulphonate (LAS) were evaluated on the mussel Perna perna, using physiological and genotoxic biomarkers. The Micronuclei (MN) assay was used to estimate effects at nuclear level, whereas the physiological effects were evaluated by measuring the oxygen consumption and ammonia excretion rates. Significant effects were observed for the MN assay and the ammonia excretion rate, even in low concentrations. The oxygen consumption was not affected in the tested concentrations. For MN and ammonia excretion, the animals exposed to intermediate concentrations were not affected, but responded to the higher concentrations, indicating the existence of compensatory mechanisms at physiological level. However, parallel to this study other authors indicate the presence of progressive effects at the cellular level, suggesting that the organisms are not capable to recover of such increasing effects. Additionally, the results show that the levels of LAS observed for Brazilian coastal waters may chronically affect the biota.

Physiological response of American bullfrog tadpoles to stressor conditions of capture and hypoxia

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Sodium chloride added to transport water and physiological responses of Matrinxã Brycon amazonicus (Teleost: Characidae)

A adição de sal à água tem sido utilizada para a mitigação de estresse e aumento da taxa de sobrevivência em peixes. O presente estudo avaliou o efeito do cloreto de sódio (0,0; 1,0; 3,0 e 6.0 g/l) nas concentrações de cortisol plasmático, glicemia, triglicerídios, proteínas total plasmática, hematócrito, hemoglobina, número de eritrócitos, glicogênio e lipídio hepáticos, e lipídio muscular em matrinxã Brycon amazonicum adultos após quatro horas de transporte e durante período de recuperação de 96 h. Amostras foram coletadas antes e depois do transporte, bem como 24 e 96 h após a chegada. O nível de cortisol plasmático estava mais elevado logo após o transporte quando comparado à condição inicial (pré-transporte), exceto para os peixes transportados com sal nas concentrações 3,0 e 6,0 g/l. Comportamento semelhante foi observado para a glicemia, porém os peixes dos tratamentos 0,0, 1,0 e 3,0 g/l necessitaram de período superior a 24 h para recuperar a condição inicial. Foram registrados níveis mais baixos de glicogênio hepático em peixes do tratamento controle (0,0 g/l). Os parâmetros hemoglobina, número de eritrócitos, proteína plasmática total e lipídio hepático não apresentaram alterações durante o período experimental. Os valores de hematócrito diminuíram logo após o transporte em todos os tratamentos, retornando aos níveis iniciais após 24 h. Todos os tratamentos apresentaram redução nos níveis de lipídio muscular e triglicerídios durante o período de recuperação. Os resultados sugerem que a adição de 6,0 g/l de sal na água de transporte reduz as alterações fisiológicas de estresse e que é necessário período de 96 h após o transporte para a recuperação da condição inicial de matrinxãs transportados sem a adição de sal.

Stress in pacu exposed to ammonia in water

The present study evaluated stress indicators in pacu exposed to ammonia in water under the following conditions: without NH4Cl (0.00 g/L); with 0.0078 g NH4Cl/L; and with 0.078 g NH4Cl/L (pH 8.3 and 27 ºC). After the salt dilution the water flow was interrupted and reestablished in 24 hours. Sampling occurred prior to the addition of NH4Cl (control) and after 12, 24 and 48 hours. Glycaemia increased only in fish with the highest salt concentration when compared with group control, regardless of time, and at 24 hours, regardless of treatment. Plasma ammonia, highest in fish exposed to the highest NH4Cl concentration, decreased progressively up to 48 hours. Plasma chloride only decreased in fish not exposed to salt when compared with control and osmolality increased after 24 hours. Hematocrit (Ht), number and volume of erythrocytes and hemoglobin did not change when NH4Cl was added; Ht decrease was reported after 12 hours, but it was not followed by the other blood parameters. The results show tolerance of the pacu to ammonia in the environment.

Soil CO2 emission and its relation to soil properties in sugarcane areas under Slash-and-burn and Green harvest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Nutrient digestibility, but not mineral absorption, is age-dependent in cats

Availability of nutrients is influenced by extremes of age, and a better characterization of this influence is necessary for appropriate development of foods and nutritional management throughout life stages of cats. This study investigated nutrient digestibility, mineral absorption, faeces and urine production in three groups of six young, mature and old cats fed two diets containing different energy densities. Apparent digestibility and mineral absorption were calculated by total collection method and values were tested with ANOVA and regression analysis. A quadratic relationship was detected between age and digestibility of dry matter, organic matter, crude protein, acid-hydrolysed fat and starch in the low-energy diet. Starch digestibility showed the same response in the high-energy diet. Young adult cats had intermediate digestibility, mature cats the highest and old cats the lowest. Mineral absorption (calcium, phosphorus, magnesium, sodium, potassium and chloride) and urinary pH were not different among groups. These findings confirm previous studies that found low digestibility of nutrients in some old cats, and support evidence that this trend is even more important in less digestible dry foods. on the contrary, data suggest that mineral formulations do not need to be varied in diets for adult cats of different ages.

Detection of Leptospira spp. in the semen and urine of bulls serologically reactive to Leptospira interrogans serovar hardjo

O presente trabalho avaliou a PCR na detecção de leptospiras em sêmen e urina de dez touros sorologicamente reagentes, comparando seus resultados com aqueles obtidos por outras técnicas de diagnóstico. Foram realizadas duas colheitas de materiais em dias alternados. As amostras de sêmen e de urina foram separadas em alíquotas para visualização direta em microscopia de campo escuro, inoculação em hamsters (apenas para o sêmen), isolamento em meio de cultura e PCR. Nenhum hamster apresentou positividade na prova de soroaglutinação microscópica (SAM); fragmentos de rins e fígado desses animais foram utilizados para a tentativa de isolamento em meio de cultura, sendo positivo o cultivo a partir do rim de hamster inoculado com semen de um touro, e do fígado de hamsters inoculados com o semen de três touros. O isolamento em meio de cultura foi negativo para todas as amostras de sêmen, mas foi positivo para cinco amostras de urina. Na PCR não houve resultado positivo para as amostras de sêmen, e apenas uma amostra de urina apresentou resultado positivo, sendo coincidente com uma das culturas positivas. Não foi possível visualizar leptospiras em nenhuma das amostras por exame direto em microscopia de campo escuro.