Northern hemisphere snow: measurement, modelling and predictability

Northern hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution from remote sensing (SSM/I), the ERA40 reanalysis product and the HadCM3 general circulation model are compared. Large differences are seen in the February climatologies, particularly over Siberia. The SSM/I retrieval algorithm may be overestimating SWE in this region, while comparison with independent runoff estimates suggest that HadCM3 is underestimating SWE. Treatment of snow grain size and vegetation parameterizations are concerns with the remotely sensed data. For this reason, ERA40 is used as `truth' for the following experiments. Despite the climatology differences, HadCM3 is able to reproduce the distribution of ERA40 SWE anomalies when assimilating ERA40 anomaly fields of temperature, sea level pressure, atmospheric winds and ocean temperature and salinity. However when forecasts are released from these assimilated initial states, the SWE anomaly distribution diverges rapidly from that of ERA40. No predictability is seen from one season to another. Strong links between European SWE distribution and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are seen, but forecasts of this index by the assimilation scheme are poor. Longer term relationships between SWE and the NAO, and SWE and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also investigated in a multi-century run of HadCM3. SWE is impacted by ENSO in the Himalayas and North America, while the NAO affects SWE in North America and Europe. While significant connections with the NAO index were only present in DJF (and to an extent SON), the link between ENSO and February SWE distribution was seen to exist from the previous JJA ENSO index onwards. This represents a long lead time for SWE prediction for hydrological applications such as flood and wildfire forecasting. Further work is required to develop reliable large scale observation-based SWE datasets with which to test these model-derived connections.

TIGGE: Comparison of the prediction of northern hemisphere extratropical cyclones by different ensemble prediction systems

The Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) is a World Weather Research Programme project. One of its main objectives is to enhance collaboration on the development of ensemble prediction between operational centers and universities by increasing the availability of ensemble prediction system (EPS) data for research. This study analyzes the prediction of Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones by nine different EPSs archived as part of the TIGGE project for the 6-month time period of 1 February 2008–31 July 2008, which included a sample of 774 cyclones. An objective feature tracking method has been used to identify and track the cyclones along the forecast trajectories. Forecast verification statistics have then been produced [using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analysis as the truth] for cyclone position, intensity, and propagation speed, showing large differences between the different EPSs. The results show that the ECMWF ensemble mean and control have the highest level of skill for all cyclone properties. The Japanese Meteorological Administration (JMA), the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), the Met Office (UKMO), and the Canadian Meteorological Centre (CMC) have 1 day less skill for the position of cyclones throughout the forecast range. The relative performance of the different EPSs remains the same for cyclone intensity except for NCEP, which has larger errors than for position. NCEP, the Centro de Previsão de Tempo e Estudos Climáticos (CPTEC), and the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) all have faster intensity error growth in the earlier part of the forecast. They are also very underdispersive and significantly underpredict intensities, perhaps due to the comparatively low spatial resolutions of these EPSs not being able to accurately model the tilted structure essential to cyclone growth and decay. There is very little difference between the levels of skill of the ensemble mean and control for cyclone position, but the ensemble mean provides an advantage over the control for all EPSs except CPTEC in cyclone intensity and there is an advantage for propagation speed for all EPSs. ECMWF and JMA have an excellent spread–skill relationship for cyclone position. The EPSs are all much more underdispersive for cyclone intensity and propagation speed than for position, with ECMWF and CMC performing best for intensity and CMC performing best for propagation speed. ECMWF is the only EPS to consistently overpredict cyclone intensity, although the bias is small. BoM, NCEP, UKMO, and CPTEC significantly underpredict intensity and, interestingly, all the EPSs underpredict the propagation speed, that is, the cyclones move too slowly on average in all EPSs.

Observed and simulated precursors of stratospheric polar vortex anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere

The Northern Hemisphere stratospheric polar vortex is linked to surface weather. After Stratospheric Sudden Warmings in winter, the tropospheric circulation is often nudged towards the negative phase of the Northern Annular Mode (NAM) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A strong stratospheric vortex is often associated with subsequent positive NAM/NAO conditions. For stratosphere–troposphere associations to be useful for forecasting purposes it is crucial that changes to the stratospheric vortex can be understood and predicted. Recent studies have proposed that there exist tropospheric precursors to anomalous vortex events in the stratosphere and that these precursors may be understood by considering the relationship between stationary wave patterns and regional variability. Another important factor is the extent to which the inherent variability of the stratosphere in an atmospheric model influences its ability to simulate stratosphere–troposphere links. Here we examine the lower stratosphere variability in 300-year pre-industrial control integrations from 13 coupled climate models. We show that robust precursors to stratospheric polar vortex anomalies are evident across the multi-model ensemble. The most significant tropospheric component of these precursors consists of a height anomaly dipole across northern Eurasia and large anomalies in upward stationary wave fluxes in the lower stratosphere over the continent. The strength of the stratospheric variability in the models was found to depend on the variability of the upward stationary wave fluxes and the amplitude of the stationary waves.

Black carbon measurements in the boundary layer over western and northern Europe

Europe is a densely populated region that is a significant global source of black carbon (BC) aerosol, but there is a lack of information regarding the physical properties and spatial/vertical distribution of rBC in the region. We present the first aircraft observations of sub-micron refractory BC (rBC) aerosol concentrations and physical properties measured by a single particle soot photometer (SP2) in the lower troposphere over Europe. The observations spanned a region roughly bounded by 50° to 60° N and from 15° W to 30° E. The measurements, made between April and September 2008, showed that average rBC mass concentrations ranged from about 300 ng m−3 near urban areas to approximately 50 ng m−3 in remote continental regions, lower than previous surface-based measurements. rBC represented between 0.5 and 3% of the sub-micron aerosol mass. Black carbon mass size distributions were log-normally distributed and peaked at approximately 180 nm, but shifted to smaller diameters (~160 nm) near source regions. rBC was correlated with carbon monoxide (CO) but had different ratios to CO depending on location and air mass. Light absorption coefficients were measured by particle soot absorption photometers on two separate aircraft and showed similar geographic patterns to rBC mass measured by the SP2. We summarize the rBC and light absorption measurements as a function of longitude and air mass age and also provide profiles of rBC mass concentrations and size distribution statistics. Our results will help evaluate model-predicted regional rBC concentrations and properties and determine regional and global climate impacts from rBC due to atmospheric heating and surface dimming.

Geographical variation in the clouded leopard, Neofelis nebulosa, reveals two species

The clouded leopard, Neofelis nebulosa, is an endangered semiarboreal felid with a wide distribution in tropical forests of southern and southeast Asia, including the islands of Sumatra and Borneo in the Indonesian archipelago [1]. In common with many larger animal species, it displays morphological variation within its wide geographical range and is currently regarded as comprising of up to four subspecies [2-4]. It is widely recognized that taxonomic designation has a major impact on conservation planning and action [5-8]. Given that the last taxonomic revision was made over 50 years ago [2], a more detailed examination of geographical variation is needed. We describe here the results of a morphometric analysis of the pelages of 57 clouded leopards sampled throughout the species' range. We conclude that there are two distinct morphological groups, which differ primarily in the size of their cloud markings. These results are supported by a recent genetic analysis [9]. On that basis, we give diagnoses for the distinction of two species, one in mainland Asia (N. nebulosa) and the other in Indonesia (N. diardi). The implications for conservation that arise from this new taxonomic arrangement are discussed.

Arsenicicoccus bolidensis a novel arsenic reducing actinomycete in contaminated sediments near the Adak mine (northern Sweden): impact on water chemistry

Weathering of mine tailings in Adak results in high As concentrations in surface and ground water, sediments, and soil. In spite of the oxic conditions, As-rich surface and ground, water samples indicate As(III) species predominantly (up to 83%). Several microorganisms were isolated from the enrichment cultures that were involved in As cycling. Amongst them was Arsenicicoccus bolidensis - a novel gram-positive, facultatively anaerobic, coccus-shaped actinomycete, which actively reduced As(V) to As(III) in aqueous media. A. bolidensis reduced 0.06-0.20 mM day(-1) As(V). As(V) reduction displays a direct correlation between the initial As(V) concentration, growth rate, and biomass yield. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Colonic microbiota signatures across five northern European countries

The composition of the colonic microbiota of 91 northern Europeans was characterized by fluorescent in situ hybridization using 18 phylogenetic probes. On average 75% of the bacteria were identified, and large interindividual variations were observed. Clostridium coccoides and Clostridium leptum were the dominant groups (28.0% and 25.2%), followed by the Bacteroides (8.5%). According to principal component analysis, no significant grouping with respect to geographic origin, age, or gender was observed.

Adsorption of frog foam nest proteins at the air-water interface

The surfactant properties of aqueous protein mixtures ( ranaspumins) from the foam nests of the tropical frog Physalaemus pustulosus have been investigated by surface tension, two-photon excitation. uorescence microscopy, specular neutron reflection, and related biophysical techniques. Ranaspumins lower the surface tension of water more rapidly and more effectively than standard globular proteins under similar conditions. Two- photon excitation. uorescence microscopy of nest foams treated with fluorescent marker ( anilinonaphthalene sulfonic acid) shows partitioning of hydrophobic proteins into the air-water interface and allows imaging of the foam structure. The surface excess of the adsorbed protein layers, determined from measurements of neutron reflection from the surface of water utilizing H2O/D2O mixtures, shows a persistent increase of surface excess and layer thickness with bulk concentration. At the highest concentration studied ( 0.5 mg ml(-1)), the adsorbed layer is characterized by three distinct regions: a protruding top layer of similar to20 Angstrom, a middle layer of similar to30 Angstrom, and a more diffuse submerged layer projecting some 25 Angstrom into bulk solution. This suggests a model involving self-assembly of protein aggregates at the air-water interface in which initial foam formation is facilitated by specific surfactant proteins in the mixture, further stabilized by subsequent aggregation and cross-linking into a multilayer surface complex.

Child labour in African Artisanal Mining Communities: experiences from Northern Ghana

The issue of child labour in the artisanal and small-scale mining (ASM) economy is attracting significant attention worldwide. This article critically examines this ‘problem’ in the context of sub-Saharan Africa, where a lack of formal sector employment opportunities and/or the need to provide financial support to their impoverished families has led tens of thousands of children to take up work in this industry. The article begins by engaging with the main debates on child labour in an attempt to explain why young boys and girls elect to pursue arduous work in ASM camps across the region. The remainder of the article uses the Ghana experience to further articulate the challenges associated with eradicating child labour at ASM camps, drawing upon recent fieldwork undertaken in Talensi-Nabdam District, Upper East Region. Overall, the issue of child labour in African ASM communities has been diagnosed far too superficially, and until donor agencies and host governments fully come to grips with the underlying causes of the poverty responsible for its existence, it will continue to burgeon.

Differences in glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide hormone and hepatic lipase in subjects of southern and northern Europe: implications for postprandial lipaemia

The aim was to determine in 32 healthy young men from northern and southern Europe whether differences in the secretion of insulin and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) might explain these findings through the actions of these hormones on lipoprotein lipase. In a randomized, single-blind, crossover study the effects of 2 test meals of identical macronutrient composition but different saturated fatty acid (SFA) and monounsaturated fatty acid (MUFA) contents were investigated on postprandial GIP, insulin, the ratio of incremental triacylglycerol to apolipoprotein B-48 (a marker of chylomicron size), and the activity of postheparin lipases. Fasting and postprandial GIP concentrations and postheparin hepatic lipase (HL) activities were higher in the southern Europeans (P<0.001 and P<0.02, respectively). Lipoprotein lipase activity after the SFA-rich meal was higher in the northern Europeans (P<0.01). HL activity 9 h after the SFA-rich meal and the area under the curve (AUC) for the postprandial insulin response correlated with the AUC for the postprandial GIP response (r=0.44 (P<0.04) and r=0.46 (P<0.05), respectively). There were no significant differences in chylomicron size between the 2 groups for either meal, but when the groups were combined there was a difference in chylomicron size between the SFA- and MUFA-rich meals (P<0.05), which could be due to the formation of larger chylomicrons after the MUFA-rich meal. The significantly higher GIP and insulin responses and HL activities in southern Europeans may provide an explanation for a previous report of attenuated postprandial triacylglycerol and apolipoprotein B-48 responses in them.