Exposure to hot and cold temperatures and ambulance attendances in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives: To investigate the effect of hot and cold temperatures on ambulance attendances. Design: An ecological time series study. Setting and participants: The study was conducted in Brisbane, Australia. We collected information on 783 935 daily ambulance attendances, along with data of associated meteorological variables and air pollutants, for the period of 2000–2007. Outcome measures: The total number of ambulance attendances was examined, along with those related to cardiovascular, respiratory and other non-traumatic conditions. Generalised additive models were used to assess the relationship between daily mean temperature and the number of ambulance attendances. Results: There were statistically significant relationships between mean temperature and ambulance attendances for all categories. Acute heat effects were found with a 1.17% (95% CI: 0.86%, 1.48%) increase in total attendances for 1 °C increase above threshold (0–1 days lag). Cold effects were delayed and longer lasting with a 1.30% (0.87%, 1.73%) increase in total attendances for a 1 °C decrease below the threshold (2–15 days lag). Harvesting was observed following initial acute periods of heat effects, but not for cold effects. Conclusions: This study shows that both hot and cold temperatures led to increases in ambulance attendances for different medical conditions. Our findings support the notion that ambulance attendance records are a valid and timely source of data for use in the development of local weather/health early warning systems.

Unsteady natural convection within a differentially heated enclosure of sinusoidal corrugated side walls

Numerically investigation of natural convection within a differentially heated modified square enclosure with sinusoidally corrugated side walls has been performed for different values of Rayleigh number. The fluid inside the enclosure considered is air and is quiescent, initially. The top and bottom surfaces are flat and considered as adiabatic. Results reveal three main stages: an initial stage, a transitory or oscillatory stage and a steady stage for the development of natural convection flow inside the corrugated cavity. The numerical scheme is based on the finite element method adapted to triangular non-uniform mesh element by a non-linear parametric solution algorithm. Investigation has been performed for the Rayleigh number, Ra ranging from 105 to 108 with variation of corrugation amplitude and frequency. Constant physical properties for the fluid medium have been assumed. Results have been presented in terms of the isotherms, streamlines, temperature plots, average Nusselt numbers, traveling waves and thermal boundary layer thickness plots, temperature and velocity profiles. The effects of sudden differential heating and its consequent transient behavior on fluid flow and heat transfer characteristics have been observed for the range of governing parameters. The present results show that the transient phenomena are greatly influenced by the variation of the Rayleigh Number with corrugation amplitude and frequency.

Is diurnal temperature range a risk factor for childhood diarrhea?

Background Previous studies have found that high and cold temperatures increase the risk of childhood diarrhea. However, little is known about whether the within-day variation of temperature has any effect on childhood diarrhea. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range and emergency department admissions for diarrhea among children under five years in Brisbane, from 1st January 2003 to 31st December 2009. Results There was a statistically significant relationship between diurnal temperature range and childhood diarrhea. The effect of diurnal temperature range on childhood diarrhea was the greatest at one day lag, with a 3% (95% confidence interval: 2%–5%) increase of emergency department admissions per 1°C increment of diurnal temperature range. Conclusion Within-day variation of temperature appeared to be a risk factor for childhood diarrhea. The incidence of childhood diarrhea may increase if climate variability increases as predicted.

Effects of extreme temperatures on years of life lost for cardiovascular deaths : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: Extreme temperatures are associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD) deaths. Previous studies have investigated the relative CVD mortality risk of temperature, but this risk is heavily influenced by deaths in frail elderly persons. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures we estimated their effects on years of life lost due to CVD. Methods and Results: The data were daily observations on weather and CVD mortality for Brisbane, Australia between 1996 and 2004. We estimated the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to CVD, after adjusting for trend, season, day of the week, and humidity. To examine the non-linear and delayed effects of temperature, a distributed lag non-linear model was used. The model’s residuals were examined to investigate if there were any added effects due to cold spells and heat waves. The exposure-response curve between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C. The curve had a sharper rise at extremes of heat than of cold. The effect of cold peaked two days after exposure, whereas the greatest effect of heat occurred on the day of exposure. There were significantly added effects of heat waves on years of life lost. Conclusions: Increased years of life lost due to CVD are associated with both cold and hot temperatures. Research on specific interventions is needed to reduce temperature-related years of life lost from CVD deaths.

The benefits of tree-based models for stock selection

The identification of the primary drivers of stock returns has been of great interest to both financial practitioners and academics alike for many decades. Influenced by classical financial theories such as the CAPM (Sharp, 1964; Lintner, 1965) and APT (Ross, 1976), a linear relationship is conventionally assumed between company characteristics as derived from their financial accounts and forward returns. Whilst this assumption may be a fair approximation to the underlying structural relationship, it is often adopted for the purpose of convenience. It is actually quite rare that the assumptions of distributional normality and a linear relationship are explicitly assessed in advance even though this information would help to inform the appropriate choice of modelling technique. Non-linear models have nevertheless been applied successfully to the task of stock selection in the past (Sorensen et al, 2000). However, their take-up by the investment community has been limited despite the fact that researchers in other fields have found them to be a useful way to express knowledge and aid decision-making...

A hybrid approach to combining CART and logistic regression for stock ranking

The benefits of applying tree-based methods to the purpose of modelling financial assets as opposed to linear factor analysis are increasingly being understood by market practitioners. Tree-based models such as CART (classification and regression trees) are particularly well suited to analysing stock market data which is noisy and often contains non-linear relationships and high-order interactions. CART was originally developed in the 1980s by medical researchers disheartened by the stringent assumptions applied by traditional regression analysis (Brieman et al. [1984]). In the intervening years, CART has been successfully applied to many areas of finance such as the classification of financial distress of firms (see Frydman, Altman and Kao [1985]), asset allocation (see Sorensen, Mezrich and Miller [1996]), equity style timing (see Kao and Shumaker [1999]) and stock selection (see Sorensen, Miller and Ooi [2000])...

The late discovery of adoptive and donor insemination offspring status : ethical implications for conceptual understandings of the ‘best interests of the child’ principle

Late discovery is a term used to describe the experience of discovering the truth of one’s genetic origins as an adult. Following discovery, late discoverers face a lack of recognition and acknowledgment of their concerns from family, friends, community and institutions. They experience pain, anger, loss, grief and frustration. This presentation shares the findings of the first qualitative study of both late discovery of adoptive and donor insemination offspring (heterosexual couple use only) experiences. It is also the first study of late discovery experiences undertaken from an ethical perspective. While this study recruited new participants, it also included an ethical re-analysis of existing late discovery accounts across both practices. The findings of this study (a) draws links between past adoption and current donor insemination (heterosexual couple only) practices, (b) reveals that late discoverers are demanding acknowledgment and recognition of the particularity of their experiences, and (c) offers insights into conceptual understandings of the ‘best interests of the child’ principle. These insights derive from the lived experiences of those whose biological and social worlds have been sundered and secrecy and denial of difference used to conceal this. It suggests that acknowledging the equal moral status of the child may be useful in strengthening conceptual understandings of the ‘best interests of the child’ principle. This equal moral status involves ensuring that personal autonomy and the ability to exercise free will is protected; that the integrity of the relationships of trust expected and demanded between parent/s and children is defended and supported; and that equal access to normative socio-cultural practices, that is; non-fictionalised birth certificates and open records, is guaranteed.

Dynamic equivalent state estimation for multi-area power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units

This paper proposes a new approach for state estimation of angles and frequencies of equivalent areas in large power systems with synchronized phasor measurement units. Defining coherent generators and their correspondent areas, generators are aggregated and system reduction is performed in each area of inter-connected power systems. The structure of the reduced system is obtained based on the characteristics of the reduced linear model and measurement data to form the non-linear model of the reduced system. Then a Kalman estimator is designed for the reduced system to provide an equivalent dynamic system state estimation using the synchronized phasor measurement data. The method is simulated on two test systems to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed method.

High temperatures-related elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year : important information for heat-warning systems

We examined the variation in association between high temperatures and elderly mortality (age ≥ 75 years) from year to year in 83 US cities between 1987 and 2000. We used a Poisson regression model and decomposed the mortality risk for high temperatures into: a “main effect” due to high temperatures using lagged non-linear function, and an “added effect” due to consecutive high temperature days. We pooled yearly effects across both regional and national levels. The high temperature effects (both main and added effects) on elderly mortality varied greatly from year to year. In every city there was at least one year where higher temperatures were associated with lower mortality. Years with relatively high heat-related mortality were often followed by years with relatively low mortality. These year to year changes have important consequences for heat-warning systems and for predictions of heat-related mortality due to climate change.

Behaviour and design of cold-formed steel beams subject to lateral-torsional buckling at elevated temperatures

Cold-formed steel beams are increasingly used as floor joists and bearers in buildings and often their behaviour and moment capacities are influenced by lateral-torsional buckling. With increasing usage of cold-formed steel beams their fire safety design has become an important issue. Fire design rules are commonly based on past research on hot-rolled steel beams. Hence a detailed parametric study was undertaken using validated finite element models to investigate the lateral-torsional buckling behaviour of simply supported cold-formed steel lipped channel beams subjected to uniform bending at uniform elevated temperatures. The moment capacity results were compared with the predictions from the available ambient temperature and fire design rules and suitable recommendations were made. European fire design rules were found to be over-conservative while the ambient temperature design rules could not be used based on single buckling curve. Hence a new design method was proposed that includes the important non-linear stress-strain characteristics observed for cold-formed steels at elevated temperatures. Comparison with numerical moment capacities demonstrated the accuracy of the new design method. This paper presents the details of the parametric study, comparisons with current design rules and the new design rules proposed in this research for lateral-torsional buckling of cold-formed steel lipped channel beams at elevated temperatures.

Ian Weir Research Architect : website

Research background: Communicating the diverse nature of multimodal practice is inherently difficult for the design-led research academic. Websites are an effective means of displaying images and text, but for the user/viewer the act of viewing is often random and disorienting, due to the non-linear means of accessing the information. This characteristic of websites limits the medium’s efficacy in regard to presenting an overarching philosophical standpoint or theme - the key driver behind most academic research. Research Contribution: This website: http://www.ianweirarchitect.com, presents a means of reconciling this problem by presenting a deceptively simple graphic and temporal layout, which limits the opportunity for the user/viewer to become disoriented and miss the key themes and issues that binds, the otherwise divergent, research material together. Research significance: http://www.ianweirarchitect.com, is a creative work that supplements Dr Ian Weir’s exhibition “Enacted Cartography” held in August 2012 in Brisbane and in August/September 2012 in Venice, Italy for the 13th International Architecture Exhibition (Venice Architecture Biennale). Dr Weir was selected by the Australian Institute of Architects to represent innovation in architectural practice for the Institute’s Formations: New Practices in Australian Architecture, exhibition and catalogue (of the same name) held in the Australian Pavilion, The Giardini, Venice. This website is creative output that compliments Dr Weir’s other multimodal outputs including photographic artworks, cartographic maps and architectural designs.

Diurnal temperature range and childhood asthma : a time-series study

BACKGROUND: Hot and cold temperatures have been associated with childhood asthma. However, the relationship between daily temperature variation and childhood asthma is not well understood. This study aimed to examine the relationship between diurnal temperature range (DTR) and childhood asthma. METHODS: A Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationship between DTR and emergency department admissions for childhood asthma in Brisbane, from January 1st 2003 to December 31st 2009. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant relationship between DTR and childhood asthma. The DTR effect on childhood asthma increased above a DTR of 10[degree sign]C. The effect of DTR on childhood asthma was the greatest for lag 0--9 days, with a 31% (95% confidence interval: 11% -- 58%) increase of emergency department admissions per 5[degree sign]C increment of DTR. Male children and children aged 5--9 years appeared to be more vulnerable to the DTR effect than others. CONCLUSIONS: Large DTR may trigger childhood asthma. Future measures to control and prevent childhood asthma should include taking temperature variability into account. More protective measures should be taken after a day of DTR above10[degree sign]C.

Morphology-based model for predicting osteocyte-like cell line (MLO-Y4) growth process

This work has led to the development of empirical mathematical models to quantitatively predicate the changes of morphology in osteocyte-like cell lines (MLO-Y4) in culture. MLO-Y4 cells were cultured at low density and the changes in morphology recorded over 11 hours. Cell area and three dimensional shape features including aspect ratio, circularity and solidity were then determined using widely accepted image analysis software (ImageJTM). Based on the data obtained from the imaging analysis, mathematical models were developed using the non-linear regression method. The developed mathematical models accurately predict the morphology of MLO-Y4 cells for different culture times and can, therefore, be used as a reference model for analyzing MLO-Y4 cell morphology changes within various biological/mechanical studies, as necessary.

Stress distribution of CFRP strengthened steel hollow sections under tension

Carbon fibre reinforced polymer (CFRP) sheets have many outstanding properties such as high strength, high elastic modulus, light weight and good durability which are made them a suitable alternative for steel in strengthening work. This paper describe the ultimate load carrying capacity of steel hollow sections at effective bond length in terms of its cross sectional area and the stress distribution within bond region for different layers CFRP. It was found that depending on their size and orientation of uni- directional CFRP layers, the ultimate tensile load was different. Along with these tests, non linear finite element analysis was also performed to validate the ultimate load carrying capacity depending on their cross sections. The predicted ultimate loads from FE analysis are found very close to the laboratory test results. The validated model has been used to determine the stress distribution at bond joint for different orientation of CFRP. This research shows the effect of stress distribution and suitable wrapping layer to be used for the strengthening of steel hollow sections in tension.

Microorganisms within human follicular fluid : effects on IVF

Our previous study reported microorganisms in human follicular fluid. The objective of this study was to test human follicular fluid for the presence of microorganisms and to correlate these findings with the in vitro fertilization (IVF) outcomes. In this study, 263 paired follicular fluids and vaginal swabs were collected from women undergoing IVF cycles, with various causes for infertility, and were cultured to detect microorganisms. The cause of infertility and the IVF outcomes for each woman were correlated with the microorganisms detected within follicular fluid collected at the time of trans-vaginal oocyte retrieval. Microorganisms isolated from follicular fluids were classified as: (1) ‘colonizers’ if microorganisms were detected within the follicular fluid, but not within the vaginal swab (at the time of oocyte retrieval); or (2) ‘contaminants’ if microorganisms detected in the vagina at the time of oocyte retrieval were also detected within the follicular fluid. The presence of Lactobacillus spp. in ovarian follicular fluids was associated with embryo maturation and transfer. This study revealed microorganisms in follicular fluid itself and that the presence of particular microorganisms has an adverse affect on IVF outcomes as seen by an overall decrease in embryo transfer rates and pregnancy rates in both fertile and infertile women, and live birth rates in women with idiopathic infertility. Follicular fluid microorganisms are a potential cause of adverse pregnancy outcomes in IVF in both infertile women and in fertile women with infertile male partners.