Incorporating semiotics into fuzzy logic to enhance Clinical Decision Support Systems

In order to enhance the quality of care, healthcare organisations are increasingly resorting to clinical decision support systems (CDSSs), which provide physicians with appropriate health care decisions or recommendations. However, how to explicitly represent the diverse vague medical knowledge and effectively reason in the decision-making process are still problems we are confronted. In this paper, we incorporate semiotics into fuzzy logic to enhance CDSSs with the aim of providing both the abilities of describing medical domain concepts contextually and reasoning with vague knowledge. A semiotically inspired fuzzy CDSSs framework is presented, based on which the vague knowledge representation and reasoning process are demonstrated.

The statistical downscaling model-decision centric (SDSM-DC): conceptual basis and applications

Regional climate downscaling has arrived at an important juncture. Some in the research community favour continued refinement and evaluation of downscaling techniques within a broader framework of uncertainty characterisation and reduction. Others are calling for smarter use of downscaling tools, accepting that conventional, scenario-led strategies for adaptation planning have limited utility in practice. This paper sets out the rationale and new functionality of the Decision Centric (DC) version of the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC). This tool enables synthesis of plausible daily weather series, exotic variables (such as tidal surge), and climate change scenarios guided, not determined, by climate model output. Two worked examples are presented. The first shows how SDSM-DC can be used to reconstruct and in-fill missing records based on calibrated predictor-predictand relationships. Daily temperature and precipitation series from sites in Africa, Asia and North America are deliberately degraded to show that SDSM-DC can reconstitute lost data. The second demonstrates the application of the new scenario generator for stress testing a specific adaptation decision. SDSM-DC is used to generate daily precipitation scenarios to simulate winter flooding in the Boyne catchment, Ireland. This sensitivity analysis reveals the conditions under which existing precautionary allowances for climate change might be insufficient. We conclude by discussing the wider implications of the proposed approach and research opportunities presented by the new tool.

Towards a framework for managing IT-enabled change, sourcing and governance

In the resource-based view, organisations are represented by the sum of their physical, human and organisational assets, resources and capabilities. Operational capabilities maintain the status quo and allow an organisation to execute their existing business. Dynamic capabilities, otherwise, allow an organisation to change this status quo including a change of the operational ones. Competitive advantage, in this context, is an effect of continuously developing and reconfiguring these firm-specific assets through dynamic capabilities. Deciding where and how to source the core operational capabilities is a key success factor. Furthermore, developing its dynamic capabilities allows an organisation to effectively manage change its operational capabilities. Many organisations are asserted to have a high dependency on - as well as a high benefit from - the use of information technology (IT), making it a crucial and overarching resource. Furthermore, the IT function is assigned the role as a change enabler and so IT sourcing affects the capability of managing business change. IT sourcing means that organisations need to decide how to source their IT capabilities. Outsourcing of parts of the IT function will also outsource some of the IT capabilities and therefore some of the business capabilities. As a result, IT sourcing has an impact on the organisation's capabilities and consequently on the business success. And finally, a turbulent and fast moving business environment challenges organisations to effectively and efficiently managing business change. Our research builds on the existing theory of dynamic and operational capabilities by considering the interdependencies between the dynamic capabilities of business change and IT sourcing. Further it examines the decision-making oversight of these areas as implemented through IT governance. We introduce a new conceptual framework derived from the existing theory and extended through an illustrative case study conducted in a German bank. Under a philosophical paradigm of constructivism, we collected data from eight semi-structured interviews and used additional sources of evidence in form of annual accounts, strategy papers and IT benchmark reports. We applied an Interpretative Phenomenological Analysis (IPA), which emerged the superordinate themes for our tentative capabilities framework. An understanding of these interdependencies enables scholars and professionals to improve business success through effectively managing business change and evaluating the impact of IT sourcing decisions on the organisation's operational and dynamic capabilities.

Parametric preference functionals under risk in the gain domain: a Bayesian analysis

The performance of rank dependent preference functionals under risk is comprehensively evaluated using Bayesian model averaging. Model comparisons are made at three levels of heterogeneity plus three ways of linking deterministic and stochastic models: the differences in utilities, the differences in certainty equivalents and contextualutility. Overall, the"bestmodel", which is conditional on the form of heterogeneity is a form of Rank Dependent Utility or Prospect Theory that cap tures the majority of behaviour at both the representative agent and individual level. However, the curvature of the probability weighting function for many individuals is S-shaped, or ostensibly concave or convex rather than the inverse S-shape commonly employed. Also contextual utility is broadly supported across all levels of heterogeneity. Finally, the Priority Heuristic model, previously examined within a deterministic setting, is estimated within a stochastic framework, and allowing for endogenous thresholds does improve model performance although it does not compete well with the other specications considered.

A land cover map of Latin America and the Caribbean in the framework of the SERENA project

Land cover maps at different resolutions and mapping extents contribute to modeling and support decision making processes. Because land cover affects and is affected by climate change, it is listed among the 13 terrestrial essential climate variables. This paper describes the generation of a land cover map for Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) for the year 2008. It was developed in the framework of the project Latin American Network for Monitoring and Studying of Natural Resources (SERENA), which has been developed within the GOFC-GOLD Latin American network of remote sensing and forest fires (RedLaTIF). The SERENA land cover map for LAC integrates: 1) the local expertise of SERENA network members to generate the training and validation data, 2) a methodology for land cover mapping based on decision trees using MODIS time series, and 3) class membership estimates to account for pixel heterogeneity issues. The discrete SERENA land cover product, derived from class memberships, yields an overall accuracy of 84% and includes an additional layer representing the estimated per-pixel confidence. The study demonstrates in detail the use of class memberships to better estimate the area of scarce classes with a scattered spatial distribution. The land cover map is already available as a printed wall map and will be released in digital format in the near future. The SERENA land cover map was produced with a legend and classification strategy similar to that used by the North American Land Change Monitoring System (NALCMS) to generate a land cover map of the North American continent, that will allow to combine both maps to generate consistent data across America facilitating continental monitoring and modeling

Calibration and evaluation of individual-based models using Approximate Bayesian Computation

This paper investigates the feasibility of using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) to calibrate and evaluate complex individual-based models (IBMs). As ABC evolves, various versions are emerging, but here we only explore the most accessible version, rejection-ABC. Rejection-ABC involves running models a large number of times, with parameters drawn randomly from their prior distributions, and then retaining the simulations closest to the observations. Although well-established in some fields, whether ABC will work with ecological IBMs is still uncertain. Rejection-ABC was applied to an existing 14-parameter earthworm energy budget IBM for which the available data consist of body mass growth and cocoon production in four experiments. ABC was able to narrow the posterior distributions of seven parameters, estimating credible intervals for each. ABC’s accepted values produced slightly better fits than literature values do. The accuracy of the analysis was assessed using cross-validation and coverage, currently the best available tests. Of the seven unnarrowed parameters, ABC revealed that three were correlated with other parameters, while the remaining four were found to be not estimable given the data available. It is often desirable to compare models to see whether all component modules are necessary. Here we used ABC model selection to compare the full model with a simplified version which removed the earthworm’s movement and much of the energy budget. We are able to show that inclusion of the energy budget is necessary for a good fit to the data. We show how our methodology can inform future modelling cycles, and briefly discuss how more advanced versions of ABC may be applicable to IBMs. We conclude that ABC has the potential to represent uncertainty in model structure, parameters and predictions, and to embed the often complex process of optimizing an IBM’s structure and parameters within an established statistical framework, thereby making the process more transparent and objective.

Can a native rodent species limit the invasive potential of a non-native rodent species in tropical agroforest habitats?

BACKGROUND Little is known about native and non-native rodent species interactions in complex tropical agro-ecosystems. We hypothesised that the native non-pest rodent Rattus everetti may be competitively dominant over the invasive pest rodent Rattus tanezumi within agroforests. We tested this experimentally by using pulse removal for three consecutive months to reduce populations of R. everetti in agroforest habitat and assessed over 6-months the response of R. tanezumi and other rodent species. RESULTS Following removal, R. everetti individuals rapidly immigrated into removal sites. At the end of the study period, R. tanezumi were larger and there was a significant shift in their microhabitat use with respect to the use of ground vegetation cover following the perturbation of R. everetti. Irrespective of treatment, R. tanezumi selected microhabitat with less tree canopy cover, indicative of severely disturbed habitat, whereas, R. everetti selected microhabitat with a dense canopy. CONCLUSION Our results suggest that sustained habitat disturbance in agroforests favours R. tanezumi, whilst the regeneration of agroforests towards a more natural state would favour native species and may reduce pest pressure in adjacent crops. In addition, the rapid recolonisation of R. everetti suggests this species would be able to recover from non-target impacts of short-term rodent pest control.

A framework for designing multi-functional cover crops

Cover crops are sown to provide a number of ecosystem services including nutrient management, mitigation of diffuse pollution, improving soil structure and organic matter content, weed suppression, nitrogen fixation and provision of resources for biodiversity. Although the decision to sow a cover crop may be driven by a desire to achieve just one of these objectives, the diversity of cover crops species and mixtures available means that there is potential to combine a number of ecosystem services within the same crop and growing season. Designing multi-functional cover crops would potentially help to reconcile the often conflicting agronomic and environmental agendas and contribute to the optimal use of land. We present a framework for integrating multiple ecosystem services delivered by cover crops that aims to design a mixture of species with complementary growth habit and functionality. The optimal number and identity of species will depend on the services included in the analysis, the functional space represented by the available species pool and the community dynamics of the crop in terms of dominance and co-existence. Experience from a project that applied the framework to fertility building leys in organic systems demonstrated its potential and emphasised the importance of the initial choice of species to include in the analysis

Long-term conditioning of soil by plantation eucalypts and pines does not affect growth of the native jarrah tree

Plant species can condition the physico-chemical and biological properties of soil in ways that modify plant growth via plant–soil feedback (PSF). Plant growth can be positively affected, negatively affected or neutrally affected by soil conditioning by the same or other plant species. Soil conditioning by other plant species has particular relevance to ecological restoration of historic ecosystems because sites set aside for restoration are often conditioned by other, potentially non-native, plant species. We investigated changes in properties of jarrah forest soils after long-term (35 years) conditioning by pines (Pinus radiata), Sydney blue gums (Eucalyptus saligna), both non-native, plantation trees, and jarrah (Eucalyptus marginata; dominant native tree). Then, we tested the influence of the conditioned soils on the growth of jarrah seedlings. Blue gums and pines similarly conditioned the physico-chemical properties of soils, which differed from soil conditioning caused by jarrah. Especially important were the differences in conditioning of the properties C:N ratio, pH, and available K. The two eucalypt species similarly conditioned the biological properties of soil (i.e. community level physiological profile, numbers of fungal-feeding nematodes, omnivorous nematodes, and nematode channel ratio), and these differed from conditioning caused by pines. Species-specific conditioning of soil did not translate into differences in the amounts of biomass produced by jarrah seedlings and a neutral PSF was observed. In summary, we found that decades of soil conditioning by non-native plantation trees did not influence the growth of jarrah seedlings and will therefore not limit restoration of jarrah following the removal of the plantation trees.

Training on the use of a bespoke continuing professional development framework improves the quality of CPD records

BACKGROUND: Using continuing professional development (CPD) as part of the revalidation of pharmacy professionals has been proposed in the UK but not implemented. We developed a CPD Outcomes Framework (‘the framework’) for scoring CPD records, where the score range was -100 to +150 based on demonstrable relevance and impact of the CPD on practice. OBJECTIVE: This exploratory study aimed to test the outcome of training people to use the framework, through distance-learning material (active intervention), by comparing CPD scores before and after training. SETTING: Pharmacy professionals were recruited in the UK in Reading, Banbury, Southampton, Kingston-upon-Thames and Guildford in 2009. METHOD: We conducted a randomised, double-blinded, parallel-group, before and after study. The control group simply received information on new CPD requirements through the post; the active intervention group also received the framework and associated training. Altogether 48 participants (25 control, 23 active) completed the study. All participants submitted CPD records to the research team before and after receiving the posted resources. The records (n=226) were scored blindly by the researchers using the framework. A subgroup of CPD records (n=96) submitted first (before-stage) and rewritten (after-stage) were analysed separately. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Scores for CPD records received before and after distributing group-dependent material through the post. RESULTS: Using a linear-regression model both analyses found an increase in CPD scores in favour of the active intervention group. For the complete set of records, the effect was a mean difference of 9.9 (95% CI = 0.4 to 19.3), p-value = 0.04. For the subgroup of rewritten records, the effect was a mean difference of 17.3 (95% CI = 5.6 to 28.9), p-value = 0.0048. CONCLUSION: The intervention improved participants’ CPD behaviour. Training pharmacy professionals to use the framework resulted in better CPD activities and CPD records, potentially helpful for revalidation of pharmacy professionals. IMPACT: • Using a bespoke Continuing Professional Development outcomes framework improves the value of pharmacy professionals’ CPD activities and CPD records, with the potential to improve patient care. • The CPD outcomes framework could be helpful to pharmacy professionals internationally who want to improve the quality of their CPD activities and CPD records. • Regulators and officials across Europe and beyond can assess the suitability of the CPD outcomes framework for use in pharmacy CPD and revalidation in their own setting.

Corporate governance in Fiji’s Native Land Trust Board

This article examines corporate governance in one of Fiji’s largest trust organisations, the Native Land Trust Board. The principal-agent framework is utilised to analyse the governance issue in this study. An examination of the annual reports and final accounts over the last three decades indicates that poor governance practices by the agent have resulted in the Board not delivering maximum returns to its principal, the landowners.

Vegetation history, human impact and climate change during prehistory: an island perspective of the isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull

Results of extensive site reconnaissance on the Isles of Tiree, Coll and north-west Mull, Inner Hebrides are presented. Pollen-stratigraphic records were compiled from a profile from Glen Aros, north-west Mull and from two profiles on Coll located at Loch an t-Sagairt and Caolas an Eilean. Quantification of microscopic charcoal provided records that were used to facilitate a preliminary evaluation of the causal driving mechanisms of vegetation change. Bayesian modelling of radiocarbon dates was used to construct preliminary chronological frameworks for these records. Basal sedimentary deposits at Glen Aros contain pollen records that correspond with vegetation succession typical of the early Holocene dating to c. 11,370 cal BP. Woodland development is a key feature of the pollen records dating to the early Holocene, while records from Loch an t-Sagairt show that blanket mire communities were widespread in north-west Coll by c. 9800 cal BP. The Corylus-rise is dated to c. 10,710 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 9905 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt, with records indicating extensive cover of hazel woodland with birch. All of the major arboreal taxa were recorded, though Quercus and Ulmus were nowhere widespread. Analysis of wood charcoal remains from a Mesolithic site at Fiskary Bay, Coll indicate that Salix and Populus are likely to be under-represented in the pollen records. Reconstructed isopoll maps appear to underplay the importance of alder in western Scotland during the mid-Holocene. Alder-rise expansions in microscopic charcoal dating to c. 7300 cal BP at Glen Aros and c. 6510 to 5830 cal BP on Coll provide records of significance to the issue of human-induced burning related to the expansion of alder in Britain. Increasing frequencies in microscopic charcoal are correlated with mid-Holocene records of increasing aridity in western Scotland after c. 7490 cal BP at Glen Aros, 6760 cal BP at Loch an t-Sagairt and 6590 cal BP at Caolas an Eilean, while several phases of increasing bog surface wetness were detected in the Loch an t-Sagairt archive during the Holocene. At least five phases of small-scale woodland disturbance during the Mesolithic period were identified in the Glen Aros profile dating to c. 11,650 cal BP, 9300 cal BP, 7840 cal BP, 7040 cal BP and 6100 cal BP. The timing of the third phase is coincident with evidence of Mesolithic settlement at Creit Dhu, north-west Mull. Three phases of small-scale woodland disturbance were detected at Loch an t-Sagairt dating to c. 9270 cal BP, 8770 cal BP and 8270 cal BP, all of which overlap chronologically with evidence of Mesolithic activity at Fiskary Bay, Coll. A number of these episodes are aligned chronologically with phases of Holocene climate variability such as the 8.2 K event.

Masked constituent priming of English compounds in native and nonnative speakers

The present research explores the degree of morphological structure of compound words in the native and nonnative lexicons, and provides additional data on the access to these representations. Native and nonnative speakers (L1 Spanish) of English were tested using a lexical decision task with masked priming of the compound’s constituents in isolation, including two orthographic conditions to control for a potential orthographic locus of effects. Both groups displayed reliable priming effects, unmediated by semantics, for the morphological but not the orthographic conditions as compared to an unrelated baseline. Results contribute further evidence of morphological structure in the lexicon of native speakers, and suggest that lexical representation and access in a second language are qualitatively comparable at relatively advanced levels of proficiency.

Invasive grasses and native Asteraceae in the Brazilian Cerrado

Anthropogenic disturbances frequently modify natural disturbance regimes and foster the invasion and spread of nonindigenous species. However, there is some dispute about whether disturbance events or invasive plants themselves are the major factors promoting the local extinction of native plant species. Here, we used a set of savanna remnants comprising a gradient of invasive grass cover to evaluate whether the species richness of Asteraceae, a major component of the Brazilian Cerrado, is affected by invasive grass cover, or alternatively, whether variation in richness can be directly ascribed to disturbance-related variables. Furthermore, we evaluate whether habitat-specialist Asteraceae differ from habitat generalist species in their responses to grass invasion. Abundance and species richness showed unimodal variation along the invasive grass gradient for both total Asteraceae and habitat-generalists. The cerrado-specialist species, however, showed no clear variation from low-to-intermediate levels of grass cover, but declined monotonically from intermediate-to-higher levels. Through a structural equation model, we found that only invasive grass cover had significant effects on both abundance and species density of Asteraceae. The effect of invasive grass cover was especially high on the cerrado-specialist species, whose proportion declined consistently with increasing invasive dominance. Our results support the prediction that invasive grasses reduce the floristic uniqueness of pristine vegetation physiognomies.

Biochemical and biophysical properties of a highly active recombinant arginase from Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis and subcellular localization of native enzyme

Arginase (L-arginine amidinohydrolase, E.C. 3.5.3.1) is a metalloenzyme that catalyses the hydrolysis Of L-arginine to L-ornithine and urea. In Leishmania spp., the biological role of the enzyme may be involved in modulating NO production upon macrophage infection. Previously, we cloned and characterized the arginase gene from Leishmania (Leishmania) amazonensis. In the present work, we successfully expressed the recombinant enzyme in E. coli and performed biochemical and biophysical characterization of both the native and recombinant enzymes. We obtained K-M and V-max. values of 23.9(+/- 0.96) mM and 192.3 mu mol/min mg protein (+/- 14.3), respectively, for the native enzyme. For the recombinant counterpart, K-M was 21.5(+/- 0.90) mM and V-max was 144.9(+/- 8.9) mu mol/min mg. Antibody against the recombinant protein confirmed a glycosomal cellular localization of the enzyme in promastigotes. Data from light scattering and small angle X-ray scattering showed that a trimeric state is the active form of the protein. We determined empirically that a manganese wash at room temperature is the best condition to purify active enzyme. The interaction of the recombinant protein with the immobilized nickel also allowed us to confirm the structural disposition of histidine at positions 3 and 324. The determined structural parameters provide substantial data to facilitate the search for selective inhibitors of parasitic sources of arginase, which could subsequently point to a candidate for leishmaniasis therapy. (c) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.