A phase I randomized, double-blind, controlled trial of 2009 influenza A (H1N1) inactivated monovalent vaccines with different adjuvant systems

Methods We conducted a phase I, multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, multi-arm (10) parallel study involving healthy adults to evaluate the safety and immunogenicity of influenza A (H1N1) 2009 non-adjuvanted and adjuvanted candidate vaccines. Subjects received two intramuscular injections of one of the candidate vaccines administered 21 days apart. Antibody responses were measured by means of hemagglutination-inhibition assay before and 21 days after each vaccination. The three co-primary immunogenicity end points were the proportion of seroprotection >70%, seroconversion >40%, and the factor increase in the geometric mean titer >2.5. Results A total of 266 participants were enrolled into the study. No deaths or serious adverse events were reported. The most commonly solicited local and systemic adverse events were injection-site pain and headache, respectively. Only three subjects (1.1%) reported severe injection-site pain. Four 2009 influenza A (H1N1) inactivated monovalent candidate vaccines that met the three requirements to evaluate influenza protection, after a single dose, were identified: 15 μg of hemagglutinin antigen without adjuvant; 7.5 μg of hemagglutinin antigen with aluminum hydroxide, MPL and squalene; 3.75 μg of hemagglutinin antigen with aluminum hydroxide and MPL; and 3.75 μg of hemagglutinin antigen with aluminum hydroxide and squalene. Conclusions Adjuvant systems can be safely used in influenza vaccines, including the adjuvant monophosphoryl lipid A (MPL) derived from Bordetella pertussis with squalene and aluminum hydroxide, MPL with aluminum hydroxide, and squalene and aluminum hydroxide.

The use of remote sensing imagery for monitoring recovery in the aftermath of a natural disaster: the Hurricane Katrina Case

Although Recovery is often defined as the less studied and documented phase of the Emergency Management Cycle, a wide literature is available for describing characteristics and sub-phases of this process. Previous works do not allow to gain an overall perspective because of a lack of systematic consistent monitoring of recovery utilizing advanced technologies such as remote sensing and GIS technologies. Taking into consideration the key role of Remote Sensing in Response and Damage Assessment, this thesis is aimed to verify the appropriateness of such advanced monitoring techniques to detect recovery advancements over time, with close attention to the main characteristics of the study event: Hurricane Katrina storm surge. Based on multi-source, multi-sensor and multi-temporal data, the post-Katrina recovery was analysed using both a qualitative and a quantitative approach. The first phase was dedicated to the investigation of the relation between urban types, damage and recovery state, referring to geographical and technological parameters. Damage and recovery scales were proposed to review critical observations on remarkable surge- induced effects on various typologies of structures, analyzed at a per-building level. This wide-ranging investigation allowed a new understanding of the distinctive features of the recovery process. A quantitative analysis was employed to develop methodological procedures suited to recognize and monitor distribution, timing and characteristics of recovery activities in the study area. Promising results, gained by applying supervised classification algorithms to detect localization and distribution of blue tarp, have proved that this methodology may help the analyst in the detection and monitoring of recovery activities in areas that have been affected by medium damage. The study found that Mahalanobis Distance was the classifier which provided the most accurate results, in localising blue roofs with 93.7% of blue roof classified correctly and a producer accuracy of 70%. It was seen to be the classifier least sensitive to spectral signature alteration. The application of the dissimilarity textural classification to satellite imagery has demonstrated the suitability of this technique for the detection of debris distribution and for the monitoring of demolition and reconstruction activities in the study area. Linking these geographically extensive techniques with expert per-building interpretation of advanced-technology ground surveys provides a multi-faceted view of the physical recovery process. Remote sensing and GIS technologies combined to advanced ground survey approach provides extremely valuable capability in Recovery activities monitoring and may constitute a technical basis to lead aid organization and local government in the Recovery management.

Structural changes and dynamic behaviour of vanadium oxide-based catalysts for gas-phase selective oxidations

Selective oxidation is one of the simplest functionalization methods and essentially all monomers used in manufacturing artificial fibers and plastics are obtained by catalytic oxidation processes. Formally, oxidation is considered as an increase in the oxidation number of the carbon atoms, then reactions such as dehydrogenation, ammoxidation, cyclization or chlorination are all oxidation reactions. In this field, most of processes for the synthesis of important chemicals used vanadium oxide-based catalysts. These catalytic systems are used either in the form of multicomponent mixed oxides and oxysalts, e.g., in the oxidation of n-butane (V/P/O) and of benzene (supported V/Mo/O) to maleic anhydride, or in the form of supported metal oxide, e.g., in the manufacture of phthalic anhydride by o-xylene oxidation, of sulphuric acid by oxidation of SO2, in the reduction of NOx with ammonia and in the ammoxidation of alkyl aromatics. In addition, supported vanadia catalysts have also been investigated for the oxidative dehydrogenation of alkanes to olefins , oxidation of pentane to maleic anhydride and the selective oxidation of methanol to formaldehyde or methyl formate [1]. During my PhD I focused my work on two gas phase selective oxidation reactions. The work was done at the Department of Industrial Chemistry and Materials (University of Bologna) in collaboration with Polynt SpA. Polynt is a leader company in the development, production and marketing of catalysts for gas-phase oxidation. In particular, I studied the catalytic system for n-butane oxidation to maleic anhydride (fluid bed technology) and for o-xylene oxidation to phthalic anhydride. Both reactions are catalyzed by systems based on vanadium, but catalysts are completely different. Part A is dedicated to the study of V/P/O catalyst for n-butane selective oxidation, while in the Part B the results of an investigation on TiO2-supported V2O5, catalyst for o-xylene oxidation are showed. In Part A, a general introduction about the importance of maleic anhydride, its uses, the industrial processes and the catalytic system are reported. The reaction is the only industrial direct oxidation of paraffins to a chemical intermediate. It is produced by n-butane oxidation either using fixed bed and fluid bed technology; in both cases the catalyst is the vanadyl pyrophosphate (VPP). Notwithstanding the good performances, the yield value didn’t exceed 60% and the system is continuously studied to improve activity and selectivity. The main open problem is the understanding of the real active phase working under reaction conditions. Several articles deal with the role of different crystalline and/or amorphous vanadium/phosphorous (VPO) compounds. In all cases, bulk VPP is assumed to constitute the core of the active phase, while two different hypotheses have been formulated concerning the catalytic surface. In one case the development of surface amorphous layers that play a direct role in the reaction is described, in the second case specific planes of crystalline VPP are assumed to contribute to the reaction pattern, and the redox process occurs reversibly between VPP and VOPO4. Both hypotheses are supported also by in-situ characterization techniques, but the experiments were performed with different catalysts and probably under slightly different working conditions. Due to complexity of the system, these differences could be the cause of the contradictions present in literature. Supposing that a key role could be played by P/V ratio, I prepared, characterized and tested two samples with different P/V ratio. Transformation occurring on catalytic surfaces under different conditions of temperature and gas-phase composition were studied by means of in-situ Raman spectroscopy, trying to investigate the changes that VPP undergoes during reaction. The goal is to understand which kind of compound constituting the catalyst surface is the most active and selective for butane oxidation reaction, and also which features the catalyst should possess to ensure the development of this surface (e.g. catalyst composition). On the basis of results from this study, it could be possible to project a new catalyst more active and selective with respect to the present ones. In fact, the second topic investigated is the possibility to reproduce the surface active layer of VPP onto a support. In general, supportation is a way to improve mechanical features of the catalysts and to overcome problems such as possible development of local hot spot temperatures, which could cause a decrease of selectivity at high conversion, and high costs of catalyst. In literature it is possible to find different works dealing with the development of supported catalysts, but in general intrinsic characteristics of VPP are worsened due to the chemical interaction between active phase and support. Moreover all these works deal with the supportation of VPP; on the contrary, my work is an attempt to build-up a V/P/O active layer on the surface of a zirconia support by thermal treatment of a precursor obtained by impregnation of a V5+ salt and of H3PO4. In-situ Raman analysis during the thermal treatment, as well as reactivity tests are used to investigate the parameters that may influence the generation of the active phase. Part B is devoted to the study of o-xylene oxidation of phthalic anhydride; industrially, the reaction is carried out in gas-phase using as catalysts a supported system formed by V2O5 on TiO2. The V/Ti/O system is quite complex; different vanadium species could be present on the titania surface, as a function of the vanadium content and of the titania surface area: (i) V species which is chemically bound to the support via oxo bridges (isolated V in octahedral or tetrahedral coordination, depending on the hydration degree), (ii) a polymeric species spread over titania, and (iii) bulk vanadium oxide, either amorphous or crystalline. The different species could have different catalytic properties therefore changing the relative amount of V species can be a way to optimize the catalytic performances of the system. For this reason, samples containing increasing amount of vanadium were prepared and tested in the oxidation of o-xylene, with the aim of find a correlations between V/Ti/O catalytic activity and the amount of the different vanadium species. The second part deals with the role of a gas-phase promoter. Catalytic surface can change under working conditions; the high temperatures and a different gas-phase composition could have an effect also on the formation of different V species. Furthermore, in the industrial practice, the vanadium oxide-based catalysts need the addition of gas-phase promoters in the feed stream, that although do not have a direct role in the reaction stoichiometry, when present leads to considerable improvement of catalytic performance. Starting point of my investigation is the possibility that steam, a component always present in oxidation reactions environment, could cause changes in the nature of catalytic surface under reaction conditions. For this reason, the dynamic phenomena occurring at the surface of a 7wt% V2O5 on TiO2 catalyst in the presence of steam is investigated by means of Raman spectroscopy. Moreover a correlation between the amount of the different vanadium species and catalytic performances have been searched. Finally, the role of dopants has been studied. The industrial V/Ti/O system contains several dopants; the nature and the relative amount of promoters may vary depending on catalyst supplier and on the technology employed for the process, either a single-bed or a multi-layer catalytic fixed-bed. Promoters have a quite remarkable effect on both activity and selectivity to phthalic anhydride. Their role is crucial, and the proper control of the relative amount of each component is fundamental for the process performance. Furthermore, it can not be excluded that the same promoter may play different role depending on reaction conditions (T, composition of gas phase..). The reaction network of phthalic anhydride formation is very complex and includes several parallel and consecutive reactions; for this reason a proper understanding of the role of each dopant cannot be separated from the analysis of the reaction scheme. One of the most important promoters at industrial level, which is always present in the catalytic formulations is Cs. It is known that Cs plays an important role on selectivity to phthalic anhydride, but the reasons of this phenomenon are not really clear. Therefore the effect of Cs on the reaction scheme has been investigated at two different temperature with the aim of evidencing in which step of the reaction network this promoter plays its role.

An equilibrium approach to modelling social interaction

The aim of this work is to put forward a statistical mechanics theory of social interaction, generalizing econometric discrete choice models. After showing the formal equivalence linking econometric multinomial logit models to equilibrium statical mechanics, a multi- population generalization of the Curie-Weiss model for ferromagnets is considered as a starting point in developing a model capable of describing sudden shifts in aggregate human behaviour. Existence of the thermodynamic limit for the model is shown by an asymptotic sub-additivity method and factorization of correlation functions is proved almost everywhere. The exact solution for the model is provided in the thermodynamical limit by nding converging upper and lower bounds for the system's pressure, and the solution is used to prove an analytic result regarding the number of possible equilibrium states of a two-population system. The work stresses the importance of linking regimes predicted by the model to real phenomena, and to this end it proposes two possible procedures to estimate the model's parameters starting from micro-level data. These are applied to three case studies based on census type data: though these studies are found to be ultimately inconclusive on an empirical level, considerations are drawn that encourage further refinements of the chosen modelling approach, to be considered in future work.

Fluid dynamic analysis and modelling of industrial chemical equipment

The research is aimed at contributing to the identification of reliable fully predictive Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) methods for the numerical simulation of equipment typically adopted in the chemical and process industries. The apparatuses selected for the investigation, specifically membrane modules, stirred vessels and fluidized beds, were characterized by a different and often complex fluid dynamic behaviour and in some cases the momentum transfer phenomena were coupled with mass transfer or multiphase interactions. Firs of all, a novel modelling approach based on CFD for the prediction of the gas separation process in membrane modules for hydrogen purification is developed. The reliability of the gas velocity field calculated numerically is assessed by comparison of the predictions with experimental velocity data collected by Particle Image Velocimetry, while the applicability of the model to properly predict the separation process under a wide range of operating conditions is assessed through a strict comparison with permeation experimental data. Then, the effect of numerical issues on the RANS-based predictions of single phase stirred tanks is analysed. The homogenisation process of a scalar tracer is also investigated and simulation results are compared to original passive tracer homogenisation curves determined with Planar Laser Induced Fluorescence. The capability of a CFD approach based on the solution of RANS equations is also investigated for describing the fluid dynamic characteristics of the dispersion of organics in water. Finally, an Eulerian-Eulerian fluid-dynamic model is used to simulate mono-disperse suspensions of Geldart A Group particles fluidized by a Newtonian incompressible fluid as well as binary segregating fluidized beds of particles differing in size and density. The results obtained under a number of different operating conditions are compared with literature experimental data and the effect of numerical uncertainties on axial segregation is also discussed.

Modelling and analysis of internally BFRP reinforced beams at elevated temperatures

The aim of the work is to conduct a finite element model analysis on a small – size concrete beam and on a full size concrete beam internally reinforced with BFRP exposed at elevated temperatures. Experimental tests performed at Kingston University have been used to compare the results from the numerical analysis for the small – size concrete beam. Once the behavior of the small – size beam at room temperature is investigated and switching to the heating phase reinforced beams are tested at 100°C, 200°C and 300°C in loaded condition. The aim of the finite element analysis is to reflect the three – point bending test adopted into the oven during the exposure of the beam at room temperature and at elevated temperatures. Performance and deformability of reinforced beams are straightly correlated to the material properties and a wide analysis on elastic modulus and coefficient of thermal expansion is given in this work. Develop a good correlation between the numerical model and the experimental test is the main objective of the analysis on the small – size concrete beam, for both modelling the aim is also to estimate which is the deterioration of the material properties due to the heating process and the influence of different parameters on the final result. The focus of the full – size modelling which involved the last part of this work is to evaluate the effect of elevated temperatures, the material deterioration and the deflection trend on a reinforced beam characterized by a different size. A comparison between the results from different modelling has been developed.

Multi-level models and infrastructures for simulating biological system development

The hierarchical organisation of biological systems plays a crucial role in the pattern formation of gene expression resulting from the morphogenetic processes, where autonomous internal dynamics of cells, as well as cell-to-cell interactions through membranes, are responsible for the emergent peculiar structures of the individual phenotype. Being able to reproduce the systems dynamics at different levels of such a hierarchy might be very useful for studying such a complex phenomenon of self-organisation. The idea is to model the phenomenon in terms of a large and dynamic network of compartments, where the interplay between inter-compartment and intra-compartment events determines the emergent behaviour resulting in the formation of spatial patterns. According to these premises the thesis proposes a review of the different approaches already developed in modelling developmental biology problems, as well as the main models and infrastructures available in literature for modelling biological systems, analysing their capabilities in tackling multi-compartment / multi-level models. The thesis then introduces a practical framework, MS-BioNET, for modelling and simulating these scenarios exploiting the potential of multi-level dynamics. This is based on (i) a computational model featuring networks of compartments and an enhanced model of chemical reaction addressing molecule transfer, (ii) a logic-oriented language to flexibly specify complex simulation scenarios, and (iii) a simulation engine based on the many-species/many-channels optimised version of Gillespie’s direct method. The thesis finally proposes the adoption of the agent-based model as an approach capable of capture multi-level dynamics. To overcome the problem of parameter tuning in the model, the simulators are supplied with a module for parameter optimisation. The task is defined as an optimisation problem over the parameter space in which the objective function to be minimised is the distance between the output of the simulator and a target one. The problem is tackled with a metaheuristic algorithm. As an example of application of the MS-BioNET framework and of the agent-based model, a model of the first stages of Drosophila Melanogaster development is realised. The model goal is to generate the early spatial pattern of gap gene expression. The correctness of the models is shown comparing the simulation results with real data of gene expression with spatial and temporal resolution, acquired in free on-line sources.

Biomechanics of sprint running: a methodological contribution

Sports biomechanics describes human movement from a performance enhancement and an injury reduction perspective. In this respect, the purpose of sports scientists is to support coaches and physicians with reliable information about athletes’ technique. The lack of methods allowing for in-field athlete evaluation as well as for accurate joint force estimates represents, to date, the main limitation to this purpose. The investigations illustrated in the present thesis aimed at providing a contribution towards the development of the above mentioned methods. Two complementary approaches were adopted: a Low Resolution Approach – related to performance assessment – where the use of wearable inertial measurement units is exploited during different phases of sprint running, and a High Resolution Approach – related to joint kinetics estimate for injury prevention – where subject-specific, non-rigid constraints for knee joint kinematic modelling used in multi-body optimization techniques are defined. Results obtained using the Low Resolution Approach indicated that, due to their portability and inexpensiveness, inertial measurement systems are a valid alternative to laboratory-based instrumentation for in-field performance evaluation of sprint running. Using acceleration and angular velocity data, the following quantities were estimated: trunk inclination and angular velocity, instantaneous horizontal velocity and displacement of a point approximating the centre of mass, and stride and support phase durations. As concerns the High Resolution Approach, results indicated that the length of the anterior cruciate and lateral collateral ligaments decreased, while that of the deep bundle of the medial collateral ligament increased significantly during flexion. Variations of the posterior cruciate and the superficial bundle of the medial collateral ligament lengths were concealed by the experimental indeterminacy. A mathematical model was provided that allowed the estimate of subject-specific ligament lengths as a function of knee flexion and that can be integrated in a multi-body optimization procedure.

A panchromatic view of the evolution of supermassive black holes

This PhD Thesis is devoted to the accurate analysis of the physical properties of Active Galactic Nuclei (AGN) and the AGN/host-galaxy interplay. Due to the broad-band AGN emission (from radio to hard X-rays), a multi-wavelength approach is mandatory. Our research is carried out over the COSMOS field, within the context of the XMM-Newton wide-field survey. To date, the COSMOS field is a unique area for comprehensive multi-wavelength studies, allowing us to define a large and homogeneous sample of QSOs with a well-sampled spectral coverage and to keep selection effects under control. Moreover, the broad-band information contained in the COSMOS database is well-suited for a detailed analysis of AGN SEDs, bolometric luminosities and bolometric corrections. In order to investigate the nature of both obscured (Type-2) and unobscured (Type-1) AGN, the observational approach is complemented with a theoretical modelling of the AGN/galaxy co-evolution. The X-ray to optical properties of an X-ray selected Type-1 AGN sample are discussed in the first part. The relationship between X-ray and optical/UV luminosities, parametrized by the spectral index αox, provides a first indication about the nature of the central engine powering the AGN. Since a Type-1 AGN outshines the surrounding environment, it is extremely difficult to constrain the properties of its host-galaxy. Conversely, in Type-2 AGN the host-galaxy light is the dominant component of the optical/near-IR SEDs, severely affecting the recovery of the intrinsic AGN emission. Hence a multi-component SED-fitting code is developed to disentangle the emission of the stellar populationof the galaxy from that associated with mass accretion. Bolometric corrections, luminosities, stellar masses and star-formation rates, correlated with the morphology of Type-2 AGN hosts, are presented in the second part, while the final part concerns a physically-motivated model for the evolution of spheroidal galaxies with a central SMBH. The model is able to reproduce two important stages of galaxy evolution, namely the obscured cold-phase and the subsequent quiescent hot-phase.

Design and implementation of a novel multi-constellation FPGA-based dual frequency GNSS receiver for space applications

The PhD activity described in the document is part of the Microsatellite and Microsystem Laboratory of the II Faculty of Engineering, University of Bologna. The main objective is the design and development of a GNSS receiver for the orbit determination of microsatellites in low earth orbit. The development starts from the electronic design and goes up to the implementation of the navigation algorithms, covering all the aspects that are involved in this type of applications. The use of GPS receivers for orbit determination is a consolidated application used in many space missions, but the development of the new GNSS system within few years, such as the European Galileo, the Chinese COMPASS and the Russian modernized GLONASS, proposes new challenges and offers new opportunities to increase the orbit determination performances. The evaluation of improvements coming from the new systems together with the implementation of a receiver that is compatible with at least one of the new systems, are the main activities of the PhD. The activities can be divided in three section: receiver requirements definition and prototype implementation, design and analysis of the GNSS signal tracking algorithms, and design and analysis of the navigation algorithms. The receiver prototype is based on a Virtex FPGA by Xilinx, and includes a PowerPC processor. The architecture follows the software defined radio paradigm, so most of signal processing is performed in software while only what is strictly necessary is done in hardware. The tracking algorithms are implemented as a combination of Phase Locked Loop and Frequency Locked Loop for the carrier, and Delay Locked Loop with variable bandwidth for the code. The navigation algorithm is based on the extended Kalman filter and includes an accurate LEO orbit model.

Heuristic algorithms for the Capacitated Location-Routing Problem and the Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem

The Capacitated Location-Routing Problem (CLRP) is a NP-hard problem since it generalizes two well known NP-hard problems: the Capacitated Facility Location Problem (CFLP) and the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP). The Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem (MDVRP) is known to be a NP-hard since it is a generalization of the well known Vehicle Routing Problem (VRP), arising with one depot. This thesis addresses heuristics algorithms based on the well-know granular search idea introduced by Toth and Vigo (2003) to solve the CLRP and the MDVRP. Extensive computational experiments on benchmark instances for both problems have been performed to determine the effectiveness of the proposed algorithms. This work is organized as follows: Chapter 1 describes a detailed overview and a methodological review of the literature for the the Capacitated Location-Routing Problem (CLRP) and the Multi-Depot Vehicle Routing Problem (MDVRP). Chapter 2 describes a two-phase hybrid heuristic algorithm to solve the CLRP. Chapter 3 shows a computational comparison of heuristic algorithms for the CLRP. Chapter 4 presents a hybrid granular tabu search approach for solving the MDVRP.

Advanced Beamforming for Distributed and Multi-Beam Networks

Beamforming entails joint processing of multiple signals received or transmitted by an array of antennas. This thesis addresses the implementation of beamforming in two distinct systems, namely a distributed network of independent sensors, and a broad-band multi-beam satellite network. With the rising popularity of wireless sensors, scientists are taking advantage of the flexibility of these devices, which come with very low implementation costs. Simplicity, however, is intertwined with scarce power resources, which must be carefully rationed to ensure successful measurement campaigns throughout the whole duration of the application. In this scenario, distributed beamforming is a cooperative communication technique, which allows nodes in the network to emulate a virtual antenna array seeking power gains in the order of the size of the network itself, when required to deliver a common message signal to the receiver. To achieve a desired beamforming configuration, however, all nodes in the network must agree upon the same phase reference, which is challenging in a distributed set-up where all devices are independent. The first part of this thesis presents new algorithms for phase alignment, which prove to be more energy efficient than existing solutions. With the ever-growing demand for broad-band connectivity, satellite systems have the great potential to guarantee service where terrestrial systems can not penetrate. In order to satisfy the constantly increasing demand for throughput, satellites are equipped with multi-fed reflector antennas to resolve spatially separated signals. However, incrementing the number of feeds on the payload corresponds to burdening the link between the satellite and the gateway with an extensive amount of signaling, and to possibly calling for much more expensive multiple-gateway infrastructures. This thesis focuses on an on-board non-adaptive signal processing scheme denoted as Coarse Beamforming, whose objective is to reduce the communication load on the link between the ground station and space segment.

Earthquake forecasting and seismic hazard analysis: some insights on the testing phase and the modeling

This thesis is divided in three chapters. In the first chapter we analyse the results of the world forecasting experiment run by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP). We take the opportunity of this experiment to contribute to the definition of a more robust and reliable statistical procedure to evaluate earthquake forecasting models. We first present the models and the target earthquakes to be forecast. Then we explain the consistency and comparison tests that are used in CSEP experiments to evaluate the performance of the models. Introducing a methodology to create ensemble forecasting models, we show that models, when properly combined, are almost always better performing that any single model. In the second chapter we discuss in depth one of the basic features of PSHA: the declustering of the seismicity rates. We first introduce the Cornell-McGuire method for PSHA and we present the different motivations that stand behind the need of declustering seismic catalogs. Using a theorem of the modern probability (Le Cam's theorem) we show that the declustering is not necessary to obtain a Poissonian behaviour of the exceedances that is usually considered fundamental to transform exceedance rates in exceedance probabilities in the PSHA framework. We present a method to correct PSHA for declustering, building a more realistic PSHA. In the last chapter we explore the methods that are commonly used to take into account the epistemic uncertainty in PSHA. The most widely used method is the logic tree that stands at the basis of the most advanced seismic hazard maps. We illustrate the probabilistic structure of the logic tree, and then we show that this structure is not adequate to describe the epistemic uncertainty. We then propose a new probabilistic framework based on the ensemble modelling that properly accounts for epistemic uncertainties in PSHA.

A multi-instrumental approach to the study of equatorial ionosphere over South America

An extensive study of the morphology and the dynamics of the equatorial ionosphere over South America is presented here. A multi parametric approach is used to describe the physical characteristics of the ionosphere in the regions where the combination of the thermospheric electric field and the horizontal geomagnetic field creates the so-called Equatorial Ionization Anomalies. Ground based measurements from GNSS receivers are used to link the Total Electron Content (TEC), its spatial gradients and the phenomenon known as scintillation that can lead to a GNSS signal degradation or even to a GNSS signal ‘loss of lock’. A new algorithm to highlight the features characterizing the TEC distribution is developed in the framework of this thesis and the results obtained are validated and used to improve the performance of a GNSS positioning technique (long baseline RTK). In addition, the correlation between scintillation and dynamics of the ionospheric irregularities is investigated. By means of a software, here implemented, the velocity of the ionospheric irregularities is evaluated using high sampling rate GNSS measurements. The results highlight the parallel behaviour of the amplitude scintillation index (S4) occurrence and the zonal velocity of the ionospheric irregularities at least during severe scintillations conditions (post-sunset hours). This suggests that scintillations are driven by TEC gradients as well as by the dynamics of the ionospheric plasma. Finally, given the importance of such studies for technological applications (e.g. GNSS high-precision applications), a validation of the NeQuick model (i.e. the model used in the new GALILEO satellites for TEC modelling) is performed. The NeQuick performance dramatically improves when data from HF radar sounding (ionograms) are ingested. A custom designed algorithm, based on the image recognition technique, is developed to properly select the ingested data, leading to further improvement of the NeQuick performance.

Modelling and analysis of networked control strategies in smart power distribution grids: development of co-simulation tools

This thesis is focused on Smart Grid applications in medium voltage distribution networks. For the development of new applications it appears useful the availability of simulation tools able to model dynamic behavior of both the power system and the communication network. Such a co-simulation environment would allow the assessment of the feasibility of using a given network technology to support communication-based Smart Grid control schemes on an existing segment of the electrical grid and to determine the range of control schemes that different communications technologies can support. For this reason, is presented a co-simulation platform that has been built by linking the Electromagnetic Transients Program Simulator (EMTP v3.0) with a Telecommunication Network Simulator (OPNET-Riverbed v18.0). The simulator is used to design and analyze a coordinate use of Distributed Energy Resources (DERs) for the voltage/var control (VVC) in distribution network. This thesis is focused control structure based on the use of phase measurement units (PMUs). In order to limit the required reinforcements of the communication infrastructures currently adopted by Distribution Network Operators (DNOs), the study is focused on leader-less MAS schemes that do not assign special coordinating rules to specific agents. Leader-less MAS are expected to produce more uniform communication traffic than centralized approaches that include a moderator agent. Moreover, leader-less MAS are expected to be less affected by limitations and constraint of some communication links. The developed co-simulator has allowed the definition of specific countermeasures against the limitations of the communication network, with particular reference to the latency and loss and information, for both the case of wired and wireless communication networks. Moreover, the co-simulation platform has bee also coupled with a mobility simulator in order to study specific countermeasures against the negative effects on the medium voltage/current distribution network caused by the concurrent connection of electric vehicles.