833 resultados para Multi-model inference
Resumo:
Deep water formation in the North Atlantic and Southern Ocean is widely thought to influence deglacial CO2 rise and climate change; here we suggest that deep water formation in the North Pacific may also play an important role. We present paired radiocarbon and boron isotope data from foraminifera from sediment core MD02-2489 at 3640 m in the North East Pacific. These show a pronounced excursion during Heinrich Stadial 1, with benthic-planktic radiocarbon offsets dropping to ~350 years, accompanied by a decrease in benthic d11B. We suggest this is driven by the onset of deep convection in the North Pacific, which mixes young shallow waters to depth, old deep waters to the surface, and low-pH water from intermediate depths into the deep ocean. This deep water formation event was likely driven by an increase in surface salinity, due to subdued atmospheric/monsoonal freshwater flux during Heinrich Stadial 1. The ability of North Pacific Deep Water (NPDW) formation to explain the excursions seen in our data is demonstrated in a series of experiments with an intermediate complexity Earth system model. These experiments also show that breakdown of stratification in the North Pacific leads to a rapid ~30 ppm increase in atmospheric CO2, along with decreases in atmospheric d13C and D14C, consistent with observations of the early deglaciation. Our inference of deep water formation is based mainly on results from a single sediment core, and our boron isotope data are unavoidably sparse in the key HS1 interval, so this hypothesis merits further testing. However we note that there is independent support for breakdown of stratification in shallower waters during this period, including a minimum in d15N, younging in intermediate water 14C, and regional warming. We also re-evaluate deglacial changes in North Pacific productivity and carbonate preservation in light of our new data, and suggest that the regional pulse of export production observed during the Bølling-Allerød is promoted by relatively stratified conditions, with increased light availability and a shallow, potent nutricline. Overall, our work highlights the potential of NPDW formation to play a significant and hitherto unrealized role in deglacial climate change and CO2 rise.
Resumo:
Providing accurate maps of coral reefs where the spatial scale and labels of the mapped features correspond to map units appropriate for examining biological and geomorphic structures and processes is a major challenge for remote sensing. The objective of this work is to assess the accuracy and relevance of the process used to derive geomorphic zone and benthic community zone maps for three western Pacific coral reefs produced from multi-scale, object-based image analysis (OBIA) of high-spatial-resolution multi-spectral images, guided by field survey data. Three Quickbird-2 multi-spectral data sets from reefs in Australia, Palau and Fiji and georeferenced field photographs were used in a multi-scale segmentation and object-based image classification to map geomorphic zones and benthic community zones. A per-pixel approach was also tested for mapping benthic community zones. Validation of the maps and comparison to past approaches indicated the multi-scale OBIA process enabled field data, operator field experience and a conceptual hierarchical model of the coral reef environment to be linked to provide output maps at geomorphic zone and benthic community scales on coral reefs. The OBIA mapping accuracies were comparable with previously published work using other methods; however, the classes mapped were matched to a predetermined set of features on the reef.
Resumo:
The environment of ebb-tidal deltas between barrier island systems is characterized by a complex morphology with ebb- and flood-dominated channels, shoals and swash bars connecting the ebb-tidal delta platform to the adjacent island. These morphological features reveal characteristic surface sediment grain-size distributions and are subject to a continuous adaptation to the prevailing hydrodynamic forces. The mixed-energy tidal inlet Otzumer Balje between the East Frisian barrier islands of Langeoog and Spiekeroog in the southern North Sea has been chosen here as a model study area for the identification of relevant hydrodynamic drivers of morphology and sedimentology. We compare the effect of high-energy, wave-dominated storm conditions to mid-term, tide-dominated fair-weather conditions on tidal inlet morphology and sedimentology with a process-based numerical model. A multi-fractional approach with five grain-size fractions between 150 and 450 µm allows for the simulation of corresponding surface sediment grain-size distributions. Net sediment fluxes for distinct conditions are identified: during storm conditions, bed load sediment transport is generally onshore directed on the shallower ebb-tidal delta shoals, whereas fine-grained suspended sediment bypasses the tidal inlet by wave-driven currents. During fair weather the sediment transport mainly focuses on the inlet throat and the marginal flood channels. We show how the observed sediment grain-size distribution and the morphological response at mixed-energy tidal inlets are the result of both wave-dominated less frequent storm conditions and mid-term, tide-dominant fair-weather conditions.
Resumo:
Understanding changes over time in the distribution of interacting native and invasive species that may be symptomatic of competitive exclusion is critical to identify the need for and effectiveness of management interventions. Occupancy models greatly increase the robustness of inference that can be made from presence/absence data when species are imperfectly detected, and recent novel developments allow for the quantification of the strength of interaction between pairs of species. We used a two-species multi-season occupancy model to quantify the impact of the invasive American mink on the native European mink in Spain through the analysis of their co-occurrence pattern over twelve years (2000 - 2011) in the entire Spanish range of European mink distribution, where both species were detected by live trapping but American mink were culled. We detected a negative temporal trend in the rate of occupancy of European mink and a simultaneous positive trend in the occupancy of American mink. The species co-occurred less often than expected and the native mink was more likely to become extinct from sites occupied by the invasive species. Removal of American mink resulted in a high probability of local extinction where it co-occurred with the endemic mink, but the overall increase in the probability of occupancy over the last decade indicates that the ongoing management is failing to halt its spread. More intensive culling effort where both species co-exist as well as in adjacent areas where the invasive American mink is found at high densities is required in order to stop thedecline of European mink.