Seasonal differences in migration patterns of a soaring bird in relation to environmental conditions: a multi-scale approach

Many studies suggest that migratory birds are expected to travel more quickly during spring, when they are en route to the breeding grounds, in order to ensure a high-quality territory. Using data recorded by means of Global Positioning System satellite tags, we analysed at three temporal scales (hourly, daily and overall journey) seasonal differences in migratory performance of the booted eagle (Aquila pennata), a soaring raptor migrating between Europe and tropical Africa, taking into account environmental conditions such as wind, thermal uplift and day length. Unexpectedly, booted eagles showed higher travel rates (hourly speed, daily distance, overall migration speed and overall straightness) during autumn, even controlling for abiotic factors, probably thanks to higher hourly speeds, more straight routes and less non-travelling days during autumn. Tailwinds were the main environmental factor affecting daily distance. During spring, booted eagles migrated more quickly when flying over the Sahara desert. Our results raise new questions about which ecological and behavioural reasons promote such unexpected faster speeds in autumn and not during spring and how events occurring in very different regions can affect migratory performance, interacting with landscape characteristics, weather conditions and flight behaviour.

An investigation of imputation methods for discrete databases and multi-variate time series

When it comes to information sets in real life, often pieces of the whole set may not be available. This problem can find its origin in various reasons, describing therefore different patterns. In the literature, this problem is known as Missing Data. This issue can be fixed in various ways, from not taking into consideration incomplete observations, to guessing what those values originally were, or just ignoring the fact that some values are missing. The methods used to estimate missing data are called Imputation Methods. The work presented in this thesis has two main goals. The first one is to determine whether any kind of interactions exists between Missing Data, Imputation Methods and Supervised Classification algorithms, when they are applied together. For this first problem we consider a scenario in which the databases used are discrete, understanding discrete as that it is assumed that there is no relation between observations. These datasets underwent processes involving different combina- tions of the three components mentioned. The outcome showed that the missing data pattern strongly influences the outcome produced by a classifier. Also, in some of the cases, the complex imputation techniques investigated in the thesis were able to obtain better results than simple ones. The second goal of this work is to propose a new imputation strategy, but this time we constrain the specifications of the previous problem to a special kind of datasets, the multivariate Time Series. We designed new imputation techniques for this particular domain, and combined them with some of the contrasted strategies tested in the pre- vious chapter of this thesis. The time series also were subjected to processes involving missing data and imputation to finally propose an overall better imputation method. In the final chapter of this work, a real-world example is presented, describing a wa- ter quality prediction problem. The databases that characterized this problem had their own original latent values, which provides a real-world benchmark to test the algorithms developed in this thesis.

Multi-scale simulation using a hybrid mass-spring system and finite element model

Ply-scale finite element (FE) models are widely used to predict the performance of a composite structure based on material properties of individual plies. When simulating damage, these models neglect microscopic fracture processes which may have a significant effect on how a crack progresses within and between plies of a multidirectional laminate. To overcome this resolution limitation a multi-scale modelling technique is employed to simulate the effect micro-scale damage events have on the macro-scale response of a structure. The current paper discusses the development and validation of a hybrid mass-spring system and finite element modelling technique for multi-scale analysis. The model developed here is limited to elastic deformations; however, it is the first key step towards an efficient multi-scale damage model well suited to simulation of fracture in fibre reinforced composite materials. Various load cases have been simulated using the model developed here which show excellent accuracy compared to analytical and FE results. Future work is discussed, including extension of the model to incorporate damage modelling.

Distributed multi-agent scheme to enhance cyber security of smart power grids

This paper presents a distributed multi-agent scheme for enhancing the cyber security of smart grids which integrates computational resources, physical processes, and communication capabilities. Smart grid infrastructures are vulnerable to various cyber attacks and noises whose influences are significant for reliable and secure operations. A distributed agent-based framework is developed to investigate the interactions between physical processes and cyber activities where the attacks are considered as additive sensor fault signals and noises as randomly generated disturbance signals. A model of innovative physical process-oriented counter-measure and abnormal angle-state observer is designed for detection and mitigation against integrity attacks. Furthermore, this model helps to identify if the observation errors are caused either by attacks or noises.

Distributed multi-agent scheme to enhance cyber security of smart power grids

This paper presents a distributed multi-agent scheme for enhancing the cyber security of smart grids which integrates computational resources, physical processes, and communication capabilities. Smart grid infrastructures are vulnerable to various cyber attacks and noises whose influences are significant for reliable and secure operations. A distributed agent-based framework is developed to investigate the interactions between physical processes and cyber activities where the attacks are considered as additive sensor fault signals and noises as randomly generated disturbance signals. A model of innovative physical process-oriented counter-measure and abnormal angle-state observer is designed for detection and mitigation against integrity attacks. Furthermore, this model helps to identify if the observation errors are caused either by attacks or noises.

Feasibility study and flow scheduling optimization of a multi-product pipeline system

The first goal of this study is to analyse a real-world multiproduct onshore pipeline system in order to verify its hydraulic configuration and operational feasibility by constructing a simulation model step by step from its elementary building blocks that permits to copy the operation of the real system as precisely as possible. The second goal is to develop this simulation model into a user-friendly tool that one could use to find an “optimal” or “best” product batch schedule for a one year time period. Such a batch schedule could change dynamically as perturbations occur during operation that influence the behaviour of the entire system. The result of the simulation, the ‘best’ batch schedule is the one that minimizes the operational costs in the system. The costs involved in the simulation are inventory costs, interface costs, pumping costs, and penalty costs assigned to any unforeseen situations. The key factor to determine the performance of the simulation model is the way time is represented. In our model an event based discrete time representation is selected as most appropriate for our purposes. This means that the time horizon is divided into intervals of unequal lengths based on events that change the state of the system. These events are the arrival/departure of the tanker ships, the openings and closures of loading/unloading valves of storage tanks at both terminals, and the arrivals/departures of trains/trucks at the Delivery Terminal. In the feasibility study we analyse the system’s operational performance with different Head Terminal storage capacity configurations. For these alternative configurations we evaluated the effect of different tanker ship delay magnitudes on the number of critical events and product interfaces generated, on the duration of pipeline stoppages, the satisfaction of the product demand and on the operative costs. Based on the results and the bottlenecks identified, we propose modifications in the original setup.

Cognitive Competence and Life Course Change in Multi-Problem Adolescents

The dissertation reports on two studies. The purpose of Study I was to develop and evaluate a measure of cognitive competence (the Critical Problem Solving Skills Scale – Qualitative Extension) using Relational Data Analysis (RDA) with a multi-ethnic, adolescent sample. My study builds on previous work that has been conducted to provide evidence for the reliability and validity of the RDA framework in evaluating youth development programs (Kurtines et al., 2008). Inter-coder percent agreement among the TOC and TCC coders for each of the category levels was moderate to high, with a range of .76 to .94. The Fleiss’ kappa across all category levels was from substantial agreement to almost perfect agreement, with a range of .72 to .91. The correlation between the TOC and the TCC demonstrated medium to high correlation, with a range of r(40)=.68, p Study II reports an investigation of a positive youth development program using an Outcome Mediation Cascade (OMC) evaluation model, an integrated model for evaluating the empirical intersection between intervention and developmental processes. The Changing Lives Program (CLP) is a community supported positive youth development intervention implemented in a practice setting as a selective/indicated program for multi-ethnic, multi-problem at risk youth in urban alternative high schools in the Miami Dade County Public Schools (M-DCPS). The 259 participants for this study were drawn from the CLP’s archival data file. The study used a structural equation modeling approach to construct and evaluate the hypothesized model. Findings indicated that the hypothesized model fit the data (χ2 (7) = 5.651, p = .83; RMSEA = .00; CFI = 1.00; WRMR = .319). My study built on previous research using the OMC evaluation model (Eichas, 2010), and the findings are consistent with the hypothesis that in addition to having effects on targeted positive outcomes, PYD interventions are likely to have progressive cascading effects on untargeted problem outcomes that operate through effects on positive outcomes.

A Multi-Criteria GIS-Based Route Selection Tool for Hazardous Material Transport: Consideration of Environmental Consequence, Traffic Congestions and Costs

Hazardous materials are substances that, if not regulated, can pose a threat to human populations and their environmental health, safety or property when transported in commerce. About 1.5 million tons of hazardous material shipments are transported by truck in the US annually, with a steady increase of approximately 5% per year. The objective of this study was to develop a routing tool for hazardous material transport in order to facilitate reduced environmental impacts and less transportation difficulties, yet would also find paths that were still compelling for the shipping carriers as a matter of trucking cost. The study started with identification of inhalation hazard impact zones and explosion protective areas around the location of hypothetical hazardous material releases, considering different parameters (i.e., chemicals characteristics, release quantities, atmospheric condition, etc.). Results showed that depending on the quantity of release, chemical, and atmospheric stability (a function of wind speed, meteorology, sky cover, time and location of accidents, etc.) the consequence of these incidents can differ. The study was extended by selection of other evaluation criteria for further investigation because health risk as an evaluation criterion would not be the only concern in selection of routes. Transportation difficulties (i.e., road blockage and congestion) were incorporated as important factor due to their indirect impact/cost on the users of transportation networks. Trucking costs were also considered as one of the primary criteria in selection of hazardous material paths; otherwise the suggested routes would have not been convincing for the shipping companies. The last but not least criterion was proximity of public places to the routes. The approach evolved from a simple framework to a complicated and efficient GIS-based tool able to investigate transportation networks of any given study area, and capable of generating best routing options for cargos. The suggested tool uses a multi-criteria-decision-making method, which considers the priorities of the decision makers in choosing the cargo routes. Comparison of the routing options based on each criterion and also the overall suitableness of the path in regards to all the criteria (using a multi-criteria-decision-making method) showed that using similar tools as the one proposed by this study can provide decision makers insights in the area of hazardous material transport. This tool shows the probable consequences of considering each path in a very easily understandable way; in the formats of maps and tables, which makes the tradeoffs of costs and risks considerably simpler, as in some cases slightly compromising on trucking cost may drastically decrease the probable health risk and/or traffic difficulties. This will not only be rewarding to the community by making cities safer places to live, but also can be beneficial to shipping companies by allowing them to advertise as environmental friendly conveyors.

Multi-Etiological Nature of Tuberculosis-Like Lesions in Condemned Pigs at the Slaughterhouse.

Tuberculosis-like lesions (TBL) in pigs have been associated with microorganisms other than mycobacteria. In this work a histopathological and microbiological evaluation of TBL in pigs is shown. A total of 352 samples belonging to 171 pigs totally condemned at slaughterhouse due to generalized TBL were sampled and selected for analysis. Pyogranulomatous (56.2%) and granulomatous lesions (20.2%) were observed in all analysed organs. Most of the granulomas observed in both lymph nodes and lungs belonged to more advanced stages of development (stages III and IV) whereas in the liver and the spleen most of lesions belonged to intermediate stages (stages II and III). Different microorganisms were simultaneously detected from TBL in the 42.7% of the animals. Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex (MTC) (38%), coryneform bacteria (40.3%) and streptococci (28.1%) were the main groups of microorganisms detected after bacteriological analysis, with Trueperella pyogenes and Streptococcus suis as the most frequently isolated species. Mycobacteria belonging to MTC were the most frequently detected pathogens in granulomatous and pyogranulomatous lesions in submandibular lymph nodes (32.7%) and coryneform bacteria were the microorganisms more frequently isolated from lungs (25.9%) and spleen samples (37.2%). These results may provide new insights into the pathogenesis and diagnosis of this pathology. The importance of coryneform bacteria and streptococci in such processes must be evaluated in future studies.

The posttraumatic growth inventory: Factor structure and invariance in a sample ofbreast cancer patients and in a non-clinical sample

The Posttraumatic Growth Inventory (PTGI) is frequently used to assess positive changes following a traumatic event. The aim of the study is to examine the factor structure and the latent mean invariance of PTGI. A sample of 205 (M age = 54.3, SD = 10.1) women diagnosed with breast cancer and 456 (M age = 34.9, SD = 12.5) adults who had experienced a range of adverse life events were recruited to complete the PTGI and a socio-demographic questionnaire. We use Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) to test the factor-structure and multi-sample CFA to examine the invariance of the PTGI between the two groups. The goodness of fit for the five-factor model is satisfactory for breast cancer sample (χ2(175) = 396.265; CFI = .884; NIF = .813; RMSEA [90% CI] = .079 [.068, .089]), and good for non-clinical sample (χ2(172) = 574.329; CFI = .931; NIF = .905; RMSEA [90% CI] = .072 [.065, .078]). The results of multi-sample CFA show that the model fit indices of the unconstrained model are equal but the model that uses constrained factor loadings is not invariant across groups. The findings provide support for the original five-factor structure and for the multidimensional nature of posttraumatic growth (PTG). Regarding invariance between both samples, the factor structure of PTGI and other parameters (i.e., factor loadings, variances, and co-variances) are not invariant across the sample of breast cancer patients and the non-clinical sample.

A multi-model approach to evaluate the role of environmental variability and fishing pressure in sardine fisheries

Understanding the fluctuations in population abundance is a central question in fisheries. Sardine fisheries is of great importance to Portugal and is data-rich and of primary concern to fisheries managers. In Portugal, sub-stocks of Sardina pilchardus (sardine) are found in different regions: the Northwest (IXaCN), Southwest (IXaCS) and the South coast (IXaS-Algarve). Each of these sardine sub-stocks is affected differently by a unique set of climate and ocean conditions, mainly during larval development and recruitment, which will consequently affect sardine fisheries in the short term. Taking this hypothesis into consideration we examined the effects of hydrographic (river discharge), sea surface temperature, wind driven phenomena, upwelling, climatic (North Atlantic Oscillation) and fisheries variables (fishing effort) on S. pilchardus catch rates (landings per unit effort, LPUE, as a proxy for sardine biomass). A 20-year time series (1989-2009) was used, for the different subdivisions of the Portuguese coast (sardine sub-stocks). For the purpose of this analysis a multi-model approach was used, applying different time series models for data fitting (Dynamic Factor Analysis, Generalised Least Squares), forecasting (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average), as well as Surplus Production stock assessment models. The different models were evaluated, compared and the most important variables explaining changes in LPUE were identified. The type of relationship between catch rates of sardine and environmental variables varied across regional scales due to region-specific recruitment responses. Seasonality plays an important role in sardine variability within the three study regions. In IXaCN autumn (season with minimum spawning activity, larvae and egg concentrations) SST, northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE. In IXaCS none of the explanatory variables tested was clearly related with LPUE. In IXaS-Algarve (South Portugal) both spring (period when large abundances of larvae are found) northerly wind and wind magnitude were negatively related with LPUE, revealing that environmental effects match with the regional peak in spawning time. Overall, results suggest that management of small, short-lived pelagic species, such as sardine quotas/sustainable yields, should be adapted to a regional scale because of regional environmental variability.

Climate variability of the last 1000 years in the NW Pacific: high resolution, multi-biomarker records from Lake Toyoni

The East Asian Monsoon (EAM) is an active component of the global climate system and has a profound social and economic impact in East Asia and its surrounding countries. Its impact on regional hydrological processes may influence society through industrial water supplies, food productivity and energy use. In order to predict future rates of climate change, reliable and accurate reconstructions of regional temperature and rainfall are required from all over the world to test climate models and better predict future climate variability. Hokkaido is a region which has limited palaeo-climate data and is sensitive to climate change. Instrumental data show that the climate in Hokkaido is influenced by the East Asian Monsoon (EAM), however, instrumental data is limited to the past ~150 years. Therefore down-core climate reconstructions, prior to instrumental records, are required to provide a better understanding of the long-term behaviour of the climate drivers (e.g. the EAM, Westerlies, and teleconnections) in this region. The present study develops multi-proxy reconstructions to determine past climatic and hydrologic variability in Japan over the past 1000 years and aid in understanding the effects of the EAM and the Westerlies independently and interactively. A 250-cm long sediment core from Lake Toyoni, Hokkaido was retrieved to investigate terrestrial and aquatic input, lake temperature and hydrological changes over the past 1000-years within Lake Toyoni and its catchment using X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF) data, alkenone palaeothermometry, the molecular and hydrogen isotopic composition of higher plant waxes (δD(HPW)). Here, we conducted the first survey for alkenone biomarkers in eight lakes in the Hokkaido, Japan. We detected the occurrence of alkenones within the sediments of Lake Toyoni. We present the first lacustrine alkenone record from Japan, including genetic analysis of the alkenone producer. C37 alkenone concentrations in surface sediments are 18µg C37 g−1 of dry sediment and the dominant alkenone is C37:4. 18S rDNA analysis revealed the presence of a single alkenone producer in Lake Toyoni and thus a single calibration is used for reconstructing lake temperature based on alkenone unsaturation patterns. Temperature reconstructions over the past 1000 years suggest that lake water temperatures varies between 8 and 19°C which is in line with water temperature changes observed in the modern Lake Toyoni. The alkenone-based temperature reconstruction provides evidence for the variability of the EAM over the past 1000 years. The δD(HPW) suggest that the large fluctuations (∼40‰) represent changes in temperature and source precipitation in this region, which is ultimately controlled by the EAM system and therefore a proxy for the EAM system. In order to complement the biomarker reconstructions, the XRF data strengthen the lake temperature and hydrological reconstructions by providing information on past productivity, which is controlled by the East Asian Summer monsoon (EASM) and wind input into Lake Toyoni, which is controlled by the East Asian Winter Monsoon (EAWM) and the Westerlies. By combining the data generated from XRF, alkenone palaeothermometry and the δD(HPW) reconstructions, we provide valuable information on the EAM and the Westerlies, including; the timing of intensification and weakening, the teleconnections influencing them and the relationship between them. During the Medieval Warm Period (MWP), we find that the EASM dominated and the EAWM was suppressed, whereas, during the Little Ice Age (LIA), the influence of the EAWM dominated with time periods of increased EASM and Westerlies intensification. The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly influenced the EAM; a strong EASM occurred during El Niño conditions and a strong EAWM occurred during La Niña. The North Atlantic Oscillation, on the other hand, was a key driver of the Westerlies intensification; strengthening of the Westerlies during a positive NAO phase and weakening of the Westerlies during a negative NAO phase. A key finding from this study is that our data support an anti-phase relationship between the EASM and the EAWM (e.g. the intensification of the EASM and weakening of the EAWM and vice versa) and that the EAWM and the Westerlies vary independently from each other, rather than coincide as previously suggested in other studies.

Entrepreneurship: a long way to go

Entrepreneurship education has emerged as one popular research domain in academic fields given its aim at enhancing and developing certain entrepreneurial qualities of undergraduates that change their state of behavior, even their entrepreneurial inclination and finally may result in the formation of new businesses as well as new job opportunities. This study attempts to investigate the Colombian student´s entrepreneurial qualities and the influence of entrepreneurial education during their studies.

Feasibility in Using Technological Resources for Implementing the Environmental Culture Cross-Cutting Factor for Sustainable Development in the Costa Rican Basic General Education

The purpose of this research was to analyze whether the use of technological resources may be feasible in the implementation of the environmental culture cross-cutting factor for sustainable development, which focuses on environmental issues related to the contents of the Science study program for the seventh year of the basic general education. The research design is qualitative with a dominant approach and uses some quantitative elements specifically in the design of instruments and some data analysis techniques. The type of study was developed with a multi-method approach; a trend that has been shaping a research style which integrates various methods in a single design. For this, we identified the didactic strategies and their relationship to both, technology and the environmental axis for sustainable development, used by six Science teachers of the 7th grade, in public institutions of the province of Heredia, Central Valley, Costa Rica, as well as the opinion of 20 students from that same grade. The main results include the opinions of the students, who showed a considerable interest in classes where technological resources are used. However, teachers do not show great interest or positive opinions on this matter; in addition, they are not well trained on the use of technological resources. It was also identified that the teaching personal who participated in the study do not develop this curricular axis.