Energy systems and their impacts on marine ecosystem services

Global warming and its link to the burning of fossil fuels has prompted many governments around the world to set legally binding greenhouse gas reduction targets which are to be partially realised through a stronger reliance on renewable (e.g. wind) and other lower carbon (i.e. natural gas and nuclear) energy commodities. The marine environment will play a key role in hosting or supporting these new energy strategies. However, it is unclear how the construction, operation and eventual decommissioning of these energy systems, and their related infrastructure, will impact the marine environment, the ecosystem services (i.e. cultural, regulating, provisioning and supporting) and in turn the benefits it provides for human well-being. This uncertainty stems from a lack of research that has synthesised into a common currency the various effects of each energy sector on marine ecosystems and the benefits humans derive from it. To address this gap, the present study reviews existing ecosystem impact studies for offshore components of nuclear, offshore wind, offshore gas and offshore oil sectors and translates them into the common language of ecosystem service impacts that can be used to evaluate current policies. The results suggest that differences exist in the way in which energy systems impact ecosystem services, with the nuclear sector having a predominantly negative impact on cultural ecosystem services; oil and gas a predominately negative impact on cultural, provisioning, regulating and supporting ecosystem services; while wind has a mix of impacts on cultural, provisioning and supporting services and an absence of studies for regulating services. This study suggests that information is still missing with regard to the full impact of these energy sectors on specific types of benefits that humans derive from the marine environment and proposes possible areas of targeted research.

On the ultrastructure of Gephyrocapsa oceanica (Haptophyta) life stages.

Gephyrocapsa oceanica is a cosmopolitan bloom-forming coccolithophore species belonging to the haptophyte order Isochrysidales and family Noëlaerhabdaceae. Exclusively pelagic, G. oceanica is commonly found in modern oceans and in fossil assemblages. Its sister species Emiliania huxleyi is known to possess a haplo-diplontic life cycle, the non-motile diploid coccolith-bearing cells alternating with haploid cells that are motile and covered by non-mineralized organic scales. Since the cytology and ultrastructure of other members of the Noëlaerhabdaceae has never been reported, it is not clear whether these features are common to the family. Here, we report on the ultrastructure of both the non-motile calcifying stage and the non-calcifying motile stage of G. oceanica. We found no significant ultrastructural differences between E. huxleyi and G. oceanica either in the calcifying diploid stage or the haploid phase. The similarities between these two morphospecies demonstrated a high degree of conservation of cytological features. We discuss the significance of these results in the light of the evolution of the Noelaerhabdaceae.

Detection and impacts of leakage from sub-seafloor deep geological carbon dioxide storage

Fossil fuel power generation and other industrial emissions of carbon dioxide are a threat to global climate1, yet many economies will remain reliant on these technologies for several decades2. Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) in deep geological formations provides an effective option to remove these emissions from the climate system3. In many regions storage reservoirs are located offshore4, 5, over a kilometre or more below societally important shelf seas6. Therefore, concerns about the possibility of leakage7, 8 and potential environmental impacts, along with economics, have contributed to delaying development of operational CCS. Here we investigate the detectability and environmental impact of leakage from a controlled sub-seabed release of CO2. We show that the biological impact and footprint of this small leak analogue (<1 tonne CO2 d−1) is confined to a few tens of metres. Migration of CO2 through the shallow seabed is influenced by near-surface sediment structure, and by dissolution and re-precipitation of calcium carbonate naturally present in sediments. Results reported here advance the understanding of environmental sensitivity to leakage and identify appropriate monitoring strategies for full-scale carbon storage operations.

Global Carbon Budget 2015

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates as well as consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2005–2014), EFF was 9.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 4.4 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 3.0 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For the year 2014 alone, EFF grew to 9.8 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 0.6 % above 2013, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, albeit at a slower rate compared to the average growth of 2.2 % yr−1 that took place during 2005–2014. Also, for 2014, ELUC was 1.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 3.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 4.1 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was lower in 2014 compared to the past decade (2005–2014), reflecting a larger SLAND for that year. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 397.15 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2014. For 2015, preliminary data indicate that the growth in EFF will be near or slightly below zero, with a projection of −0.6 [range of −1.6 to +0.5] %, based on national emissions projections for China and the USA, and projections of gross domestic product corrected for recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy for the rest of the world. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2015, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 555 ± 55 GtC (2035 ± 205 GtCO2) for 1870–2015, about 75 % from EFF and 25 % from ELUC. This living data update documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this data set (Le Quéré et al., 2015, 2014, 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2015).

Validations and descriptions of European syntaxa of vegetation dominated by lichens, bryophytes and algae

Fourty-two high-rank syntaxa and seven associations of the thallophyte system of syntaxa are either described as new or validated in this paper. Among those, there are the following nine classes: Aspicilietea candidae, Caulerpetea racemosae, Desmococcetea olivacei, Entophysalidetea deustae, Gloeocapsetea sanguineae, Mesotaenietea berggrenii, Naviculetea gregariae, Porpidietea zeoroidis, Roccelletea phycopsis. Eleven orders and ten alliances as well as three associations are described or validated: the Aspicilietalia verruculosae (incl. Aspicilion mashiginensis and Teloschistion contortuplicati), the Caulerpetalia racemosae (incl. Caulerpion racemosae), the Desmococcetalia olivacei (incl. Desmococcion olivacei), the Dirinetalia massiliensis, the Fucetalia vesiculosi (incl. Ascophyllion nodosi), the Gloeocapsetalia sanguineae, the Lecideetalia confluescentis (incl. Lecideion confluescentis), the Mesotaenietalia berggrenii (incl. Mesotaenion berggrenii, Mesotaenietum berggrenii and Chloromonadetum nivalis), the Naviculetalia gregariae (incl. Oscillatorion limosae and Oscillatorietum limosae), the Porpidietalia zeoroidis (incl. Porpidion zeoroidis), and the Roccelletalia fuciformis (incl. Paralecanographion grumulosae). Further, five orders, seven alliances and four associations, classified in known classes, were described as well. These include: the Bacidinetalia phacodis, the Agonimion octosporae and the Dendrographetalia decolorantis (all in the Arthonio radiatae-Lecidelletea elaeochromae), the Staurothelion solventis (in the Aspicilietea lacustris), the Pediastro duplicis-Scenedesmion quadricaudae and the Pediastro duplicis-Scenedesmetum quadricaudae (both in the Asterionelletea formosae), the Peccanion coralloidis and the Peltuletalia euplocae (both in the Collematetea cristati), the Laminarion hyperboreae, the Saccorhizo polyschidi-Laminarietum and the Alario esculenti-Himanthalietum elongatae (all in the Cystoseiretea crinitae), the Delesserietalia sanguinei, the Delesserion sanguinei and the Delesserietum sanguineae (all in the Lithophylletea soluti), as well as the the Rinodino confragosae-Rusavskietalia elegantis and the Rhizocarpo geographici-Rusavskion elegantis (both in the Rhizocarpetea geographici).

“Islands” in Holocene forests: implications for forest openness, landscape clearance and “culture-steppe” species

Human activity has undoubtedly had a major impact on Holocene forested ecosystems, with the concurrent expansion of plants and animals associated with cleared landscapes and pasture, also known as 'culture-steppe'. However, this anthropogenic perspective may have underestimated the contribution of autogenic disturbance (e.g. wind-throw, fire), or a mixture of autogenic and anthropogenic processes, within early Holocene forests. Entomologists have long argued that the north European primary forest was probably similar in structure to pasture woodland. This idea has received support from the conservation biologist Frans Vera, who has recently strongly argued that the role of large herbivores in maintaining open forests in the primeval landscapes of Europe has been seriously underestimated. This paper reviews this debate from a fossil invertebrate perspective and looks at several early Holocene insect assemblages. Although wood taxa are indeed important during this period, species typical of open areas and grassland and dung beetles, usually associated with the dung of grazing animals, are persistent presences in many early woodland faunas. We also suggest that fire and other natural disturbance agents appear to have played an important ecological role in some of these forests, maintaining open areas and creating open vegetation islands within these systems. More work, however, is required to ascertain the role of grazing animals, but we conclude that fossil insects have a significant contribution to make to this debate. This evidence has fundamental implications in terms of how the palaeoecological record is interpreted, particularly by environmental archaeologists and palaeoecologists who may be more interested in identifying human-environment interactions rather than the ecological processes which may be preserved within palaeoecological records.

Pinus and Prostomis: a dendrochronological and palaeoentomological study of a study of a mid-Holocene woodland in Eastern England

Tree-ring analysis of sub-fossil Pinus sylvestris L. and Quercus sp. and their associated sub-fossil insect assemblages from tree rot holes have been used to study a prehistoric forest buried in the basal peats at Tyrham Hall Quarry, Hatfield Moors SSSI, in the Humberhead Levels, eastern England. The site provided a rare opportunity to examine the date, composition, age structure and entomological biodiversity of a mid-Holocene Pinus-dominated forest. The combined approaches of dendrochronology and palaeoentomology have enabled a detailed picture of the forest to be reconstructed, within a precise time frame. The Pinus chronology has been precisely dated to 2921- 2445 BC against the English Quercus master curve and represents the first English Pinus chronology to be dendrochronologically dated. A suite of important xylophilous (wood-loving) beetles that are today very rare and four species that no longer live within the British Isles were also recovered, their disappearance associated with the decline in woodland habitats as well as possible climate change. The sub-fossil insects indicate that the characteristic species of the site's modern-day fauna were already in place 4000 years ago. These findings have important implications in terms of maintaining long-term invertebrate biodiversity of mire sites.

Postglacial formation and dynamics of North Patagonian Rainforest in the Chonos Archipelago, Southern Chile

Pollen analysis of continuous sediment cores from two lakes in the northern Chonos Archipelago (44S) in southern Chile shows a complete postglacial record of vegetation change. The fossil records indicate that deglaciation was complete in the northern Chonos by at least 13,600 14Cyr BP. Ericaceous heath and grassland persisted for more than 600 years after deglaciation under the influence of dry/cold climates and frequent burning. Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron-Podocarpus forest, with modern analogues in the southern Chonos Archipelago, was established across the northern islands by 12,400 14Cyr BP under increasingly warm and wet climates. There is no evidence for a return to cooler climates during the Younger Dryas chronozone. The rise of Tepualia stipularis and Weinmannia trichosperma as important forest components between 10,600 and 6000 14Cyr BP may be associated withclimates that were warmer than present. The collapse of Pilgerodendron communities during this time may have been triggered by a combination of factors related to disturbance frequency including tephra deposition events, fire and climate change. After 6000 14Cyr BP Pilgerodendron recovers and Nothofagus-Pilgerodendron-Tepualia forest persists until the present. European logging and burning activity may have increased the susceptibility of North Patagonian Rainforest to invasion by introduced species and to future collapse of the long-lived Pilgerodendron communities.

DNA from pollen: principles and potential

This paper describes our recent extraction of ancient DNA (aDNA) from Holocene pollen and discusses the potential of the technique for elucidating timescales of evolutionary change. We show that plastid DNA is recoverable and usable from pollen grains of Scots pine Pinus sylvestris from 10 ka and 100 years ago. Comparison of the ancient sequences with modern sequences, obtained from an extant population, establish a first genetic link between modern and fossil samples of Scots pine, providing a genetic continuity through time. One common haplotype is present in each of the three periods investigated, suggesting that it persisted near the lake throughout the postglacial. The retrieval of aDNA from pollen has major implications for palaeoecology by allowing (i) investigation of population level dynamics in time and space, and (ii) tracing ancestry of populations and developing phylogenetic trees that include extinct as well as extant taxa. The method should work over the last glacial oscillation, thus giving access to ancestry of populations over a crucial period of time for the understanding of the relationship between speciation and climate change.

Long-term ecology of native pinewood communities in East Glen Affric, Scotland

Fossil pollen, stomata and charcoal were examined from a lake sedimentary sequence in the Glen Affric National Nature Reserve, one of the largest areas of remnant native pine woodland in Scotland, in order to assess ecosystem dynamics over the last 11 000 years. Results reveal that pinewood communities have been continuously present in East Glen Affric for the last 8300 years. Pinus sylvestris fi rst arrived in the area around 9900 cal. BP, but occurred in only low abundance for the subsequent 1600 years. Pine populations expanded around 8300 cal. BP and remained in relatively constant abundance throughout the remainder of the Holocene. There is no evidence of a hypothesized regional mid-Holocene ‘ pine decline ’ at the site. Charcoal results reveal that pinewood communities in East Glen Affric do not appear to have been dependent on fire for either their establishment or their maintenance as has previously been suggested.

How can a knowledge of the past help to conserve the future? Biodiversity conservation and the relevance of long-term ecological studies

This paper evaluates how long-term records could and should be utilized in conservation policy and practice. Traditionally, there has been an extremely limited use of long-term ecological records (greater than 50 years) in biodiversity conservation. There are a number of reasons why such records tend to be discounted, including a perception of poor scale of resolution in both time and space, and the lack of accessibility of long temporal records to non-specialists. Probably more important, however, is the perception that even if suitable temporal records are available, their roles are purely descriptive, simply demonstrating what has occurred before in Earth’s history, and are of little use in the actual practice of conservation. This paper asks why this is the case and whether there is a place for the temporal record in conservation management. Key conservation initiatives related to extinctions, identification of regions of greatest diversity/threat, climate change and biological invasions are addressed. Examples of how a temporal record can add information that is of direct practicable applicability to these issues are highlighted. These include (i) the identification of species at the end of their evolutionary lifespan and therefore most at risk from extinction, (ii) the setting of realistic goals and targets for conservation ‘hotspots’, and (iii) the identification of various management tools for the maintenance/restoration of a desired biological state. For climate change conservation strategies, the use of long-term ecological records in testing the predictive power of species envelope models is highlighted, along with the potential of fossil records to examine the impact of sea-level rise. It is also argued that a long-term perspective is essential for the management of biological invasions, not least in determining when an invasive is not an invasive. The paper concludes that often inclusion of a long-term ecological perspective can provide a more scientifically defensible basis for conservation decisions than the one based only on contemporary records. The pivotal issue of this paper is not whether long-term records are of interest to conservation biologists, but how they can actually be utilized in conservation practice and policy.

The VLT-FLAMES Survey of massive stars: Rotation and nitrogen enrichment as the key to understanding massive star evolution

Rotation has become an important element in evolutionary models of massive stars, specifically via the prediction of rotational mixing. Here we study a sample of stars, including rapid rotators, to constrain such models and use nitrogen enrichments as a probe of the mixing process. Chemical compositions (C, N, O, Mg, and Si) have been estimated for 135 early B-type stars in the Large Magellanic Cloud with projected rotational velocities up to similar to 300 km s(-1) using a non-LTE TLUSTY model atmosphere grid. Evolutionary models, including rotational mixing, have been generated attempting to reproduce these observations by adjusting the overshooting and rotational mixing parameters and produce reasonable agreement with 60% of our core hydrogen burning sample. We find (excluding known binaries) a significant population of highly nitrogen-enriched intrinsic slow rotators (nu sin i less than or similar to 50 km s(-1)) incompatible with our models (similar to 20% of the sample). Furthermore, while we find fast rotators with enrichments in agreement with the models, the observation of evolved (dex) fast rotators (log g < 3.7 dex) that are relatively unenriched (a further similar to 20% of the sample) challenges the concept of rotational mixing. We also find that 70% of our blue supergiant sample cannot have evolved directly from the hydrogen-burning main sequence. We are left with a picture where invoking binarity and perhaps fossil magnetic fields is required to understand the surface properties of a population of massive main- sequence stars.

Impacts of climate change on species, populations and communities: palaeobiogeographical insights and frontiers

Understanding climate change and its potential impact on species, populations and communities is one of the most pressing questions of twenty-fi rst-century conservation planning. Palaeobiogeographers working on Cenozoic fossil records and other lines of evidence are producing important insights into the dynamic nature of climate and the equally dynamic response of species, populations and communities. Climatic variations ranging in length from multimillennia to decades run throughout the palaeo-records of the Quaternary and earlier Cenozoic and have been shown to have had impacts ranging from changes in the genetic structure and morphology of individual species, population sizes and distributions, community composition to large-scale bio-diversity gradients. The biogeographical impacts of climate change may be due directly to the effects of alterations in temperature and moisture on species, or they may arise due to changes in factors such as disturbance regimes. Much of the recent progress in the application of palaeobiogegraphy to issues of climate change and its impacts can be attributed to developments along a number of still advancing methodological frontiers. These include increasingly finely resolved chronological resolution, more refi ned atmosphere-biosphere modelling, new biological and chemical techniques in reconstructing past species distributions and past climates, the development of large and readily accessible geo-referenced databases of biogeographical and climatic information, and new approaches in fossil morphological analysis and new molecular DNA techniques.

Phylogeographic insights into cryptic glacial refugia

The glacial episodes of the Quaternary (2.6 million years ago–present) were a major factor in shaping the present-day distributions of extant flora and fauna, with expansions and contractions of the ice sheets rendering large areas uninhabitable for most species. Fossil records suggest that many species survived glacial maxima by retreating to refugia, usually at lower latitudes. Recently, phylogeographic studies have given support to the existence of previously unknown, or cryptic, refugia. Here we summarise many of these insights into the glacial histories of species in cryptic refugia gained through phylogeographic approaches. Understanding such refugia might be important as the Earth heads into another period of climate change, in terms of predicting the effects on species distribution and survival.

Variability in thermal and UV-B energy fluxes through time and their influence on plant diversity and speciation

Throughout Earth's history there have been temporal and spatial variations in the amount of visible and ultraviolet radiation received by ecosystems. This paper examines if temporal changes in these forms of energy receipt could have influenced the tempo and mode of plant diversity and speciation, focusing in particular upon Cenozoic time-scales. Evidence for changing patterns of plant diversity and speciation apparent in various fossil records and molecular phylogenies are considered alongside calculated changes in thermal and solar ultraviolet energy (specifically UV-B) over the past 50 Myr. We suggest that changes in thermal energy influx (amount and variability) affected the tempo of evolution through its influence upon community dynamics (e.g. population size, diversity, turnover, extinctions). It was not only the amount of thermal energy but also variability in its flux that may have influenced these processes, and ultimately the rate of diversification. We suggest that variations in UV-B would have influenced the mode and tempo of speciation through changes to genome stability during intervals of elevated UV-B. We argue, therefore, that although variability in thermal energy and UV-B fluxes through time may lead to the same end-point (changing the rate of diversification), the processes responsible are very different and both need to be considered when linking evolutionary processes to energy flux.