Pitfalls in the modeling of forward-looking price setting and investment decisions

The present paper makes progress in explaining the role of capital for inflation and output dynamics. We followWoodford (2003, Ch. 5) in assuming Calvo pricing combined with a convex capital adjustment cost at the firm level. Our main result is that capital accumulation affects inflation dynamics primarily through its impact on the marginal cost. This mechanism is much simpler than the one implied by the analysis in Woodford's text. The reason is that his analysis suffers from a conceptual mistake, as we show. The latter obscures the economic mechanism through which capital affects inflation and output dynamics in the Calvo model, as discussed in Woodford (2004).

Flexible multivariate GARCH modeling with an application to international stock markets

The goal of this paper is to estimate time-varying covariance matrices.Since the covariance matrix of financial returns is known to changethrough time and is an essential ingredient in risk measurement, portfolioselection, and tests of asset pricing models, this is a very importantproblem in practice. Our model of choice is the Diagonal-Vech version ofthe Multivariate GARCH(1,1) model. The problem is that the estimation ofthe general Diagonal-Vech model model is numerically infeasible indimensions higher than 5. The common approach is to estimate more restrictive models which are tractable but may not conform to the data. Our contributionis to propose an alternative estimation method that is numerically feasible,produces positive semi-definite conditional covariance matrices, and doesnot impose unrealistic a priori restrictions. We provide an empiricalapplication in the context of international stock markets, comparing thenew estimator to a number of existing ones.

Macroeconomic modeling for monetary policy evaluation

We describe some of the main features of the recent vintage macroeconomic models used for monetary policy evaluation. We point to some of the key differences with respect to the earlier generation ofmacro models, and highlight the insights for policy that these new frameworks have to offer. Our discussion emphasizes two key aspects of the new models: the significant role of expectations of future policy actions in the monetary transmission mechanism, and the importance for the central bank of tracking of the flexible price equilibrium values of the natural levels of output and the real interest rate. We argue that both features have important implications for the conduct of monetary policy.

Expanding molecular modeling and design tools to non-natural sidechains.

Protein-protein interactions encode the wiring diagram of cellular signaling pathways and their deregulations underlie a variety of diseases, such as cancer. Inhibiting protein-protein interactions with peptide derivatives is a promising way to develop new biological and therapeutic tools. Here, we develop a general framework to computationally handle hundreds of non-natural amino acid sidechains and predict the effect of inserting them into peptides or proteins. We first generate all structural files (pdb and mol2), as well as parameters and topologies for standard molecular mechanics software (CHARMM and Gromacs). Accurate predictions of rotamer probabilities are provided using a novel combined knowledge and physics based strategy. Non-natural sidechains are useful to increase peptide ligand binding affinity. Our results obtained on non-natural mutants of a BCL9 peptide targeting beta-catenin show very good correlation between predicted and experimental binding free-energies, indicating that such predictions can be used to design new inhibitors. Data generated in this work, as well as PyMOL and UCSF Chimera plug-ins for user-friendly visualization of non-natural sidechains, are all available at http://www.swisssidechain.ch. Our results enable researchers to rapidly and efficiently work with hundreds of non-natural sidechains.

Parametric imaging for characterizing focal liver lesions in contrast-enhanced ultrasound.

The differentiation between benign and malignant focal liver lesions plays an important role in diagnosis of liver disease and therapeutic planning of local or general disease. This differentiation, based on characterization, relies on the observation of the dynamic vascular patterns (DVP) of lesions with respect to adjacent parenchyma, and may be assessed during contrast-enhanced ultrasound imaging after a bolus injection. For instance, hemangiomas (i.e., benign lesions) exhibit hyper-enhanced signatures over time, whereas metastases (i.e., malignant lesions) frequently present hyperenhanced foci during the arterial phase and always become hypo-enhanced afterwards. The objective of this work was to develop a new parametric imaging technique, aimed at mapping the DVP signatures into a single image called a DVP parametric image, conceived as a diagnostic aid tool for characterizing lesion types. The methodology consisted in processing a time sequence of images (DICOM video data) using four consecutive steps: (1) pre-processing combining image motion correction and linearization to derive an echo-power signal, in each pixel, proportional to local contrast agent concentration over time; (2) signal modeling, by means of a curve-fitting optimization, to compute a difference signal in each pixel, as the subtraction of adjacent parenchyma kinetic from the echopower signal; (3) classification of difference signals; and (4) parametric image rendering to represent classified pixels as a support for diagnosis. DVP parametric imaging was the object of a clinical assessment on a total of 146 lesions, imaged using different medical ultrasound systems. The resulting sensitivity and specificity were 97% and 91%, respectively, which compare favorably with scores of 81 to 95% and 80 to 95% reported in medical literature for sensitivity and specificity, respectively.

Comment on recent modeling studies of astrocyte-neuron metabolic interactions.

Recent years have seen a surge in mathematical modeling of the various aspects of neuron-astrocyte interactions, and the field of brain energy metabolism is no exception in that regard. Despite the advent of biophysical models in the field, the long-lasting debate on the role of lactate in brain energy metabolism is still unresolved. Quite the contrary, it has been ported to the world of differential equations. Here, we summarize the present state of this discussion from the modeler's point of view and bring some crucial points to the attention of the non-mathematically proficient reader.

Modeling complex wells with the multi-scale finite-volume method

In this paper, an extension of the multi-scale finite-volume (MSFV) method is devised, which allows to Simulate flow and transport in reservoirs with complex well configurations. The new framework fits nicely into the data Structure of the original MSFV method,and has the important property that large patches covering the whole well are not required. For each well. an additional degree of freedom is introduced. While the treatment of pressure-constraint wells is trivial (the well-bore reference pressure is explicitly specified), additional equations have to be solved to obtain the unknown well-bore pressure of rate-constraint wells. Numerical Simulations of test cases with multiple complex wells demonstrate the ability of the new algorithm to capture the interference between the various wells and the reservoir accurately. (c) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Temporal Geobiotic Mapping: a conceptual mapping technique toward visualising geobiotic areas in cross-section

Geobiota are defined by taxic assemblages (i.e., biota) and their defining abiotic breaks, which are mapped in cross-section to reveal past and future biotic boundaries. We term this conceptual approach Temporal Geobiotic Mapping (TGM) and offer it as a conceptual approach for biogeography. TGM is based on geological cross-sectioning, which creates maps based on the distribution of biota and known abiotic factors that drive their distribution, such as climate, topography, soil chemistry and underlying geology. However, the availability of abiotic data is limited for many areas. Unlike other approaches, TGM can be used when there is minimal data available. In order to demonstrate TGM, we use the well-known area in the Blue Mountains, New South Wales (NSW), south-eastern Australia and show how surface processes such as weathering and erosion affect the future distribution of a Moist Basalt Forest taxic assemblage. Biotic areas are best represented visually as maps, which can show transgressions and regressions of biota and abiota over time. Using such maps, a biogeographer can directly compare animal and plant distributions with features in the abiotic environment and may identify significant geographical barriers or pathways that explain biotic distributions.

Carbon and oxygen isotope study of hydrothermal carbonates in the zinc-lead deposits of the San Vicente district, central Peru: A quantitative modeling on mixing processes and CO2 degassing

Carbon and oxygen isotope studies of the host and gangue carbonates of Mississippi Valley-type zinc-lead deposits in the San Vicente District hosted in the Upper Triassic to Lower Jurassic dolostones of the Pucara basin (central Peru) were used to constrain models of the ore formation. A mixing model between an incoming hot saline slightly acidic radiogenic (Pb, Sr) fluid and the native formation water explains the overall isotopic variation (delta(13)C = - 11.5 to + 2.5 parts per thousand relative to PDB and delta(18)O = + 18.0 to + 24.3 parts per thousand relative to SMOW) of the carbonate generations. The dolomites formed during the main ore stage show a narrower range (delta(13)C = - 0.1 to + 1.7 parts per thousand and delta(18)O = + 18.7 to + 23.4 parts per thousand) which is explained by exchange between the mineralizing fluids and the host carbonates combined with changes in temperature and pressure. This model of fluid-rock interaction explains the pervasive alteration of the host dolomite I and precipitation of sphalerite I. The open-space filling hydrothermal white sparry dolomite and the coexisting sphalerite II formed by prolonged fluid-host dolomite interaction and limited CO2 degassing. Late void-filling dolomite III (or calcite) and the associated sphalerite III formed as the consequence of CO2 degassing and concomitant pH increase of a slightly acidic ore fluid. Widespread brecciation is associated to CO2 outgassing. Consequently, pressure variability plays a major role in the ore precipitation during the late hydrothermal events in San Vicente. The presence of native sulfur associated with extremely carbon-light calcites replacing evaporitic sulfates (e.g., delta(13)C = - 11.5 parts per thousand), altered native organic matter and heavier hydrothermal bitumen (from - 27.0 to - 23.0 parts per thousand delta(13)C) points to thermochemical reduction of sulfate and/or thiosulfate. The delta(13)C- and delta(18)O-values of the altered host dolostone and hydrothermal carbonates, and the carbon isotope composition of the associated organic matter show a strong regional homogeneity. These results coupled with the strong mineralogical and petrographic similarities of the different MVT occurrences perhaps reflects the fact that the mineralizing processes were similar in the whole San Vicente belt, suggesting the existence of a common regional mineralizing hydrothermal system with interconnected plumbing.

Laparoscopic inguinal hernia repair with extraperitoneal double-mesh technique.

Totally extraperitoneal laparoscopic hernia repair is an efficient but technically demanding procedure. As mechanisms of hernia recurrence may be related to these technical difficulties, we have modified a previously described double-mesh technique in an effort to simplify the procedure. Extraperitoneal laparoscopic hernia repairs were performed in 82 male and 17 female patients having inguinal, femoral, and recurrent bilateral hernias. A standard propylene mesh measuring 15 x 15 cm was cut into two pieces of 4 x 15 cm and 11 x 15 cm. The smaller mesh was placed over both inguinal rings without splitting. The larger mesh was then inserted over the first mesh and stapled to low-risk zones, reinforcing the large-vessel area and the nerve transition zone. The mean procedure duration was 60 minutes for unilateral and 100 minutes for bilateral hernia repair. Patients were discharged from the hospital within 48 hours. The mean postoperative follow-up was 22 months, with no recurrences, neuralgia, or bleeding complications. Over a 2-year period, this technique was found to be satisfactory without recurrences or significant complications. In our hands, this technique was easier to perform: it allows for a less than perfect positioning of the meshes and avoids most of the stapling to crucial zones.

Efficiency of the induced mating technique for Toxorhynchites theobaldi (Diptera, Culicidae)

Toxorhynchites mosquitoes play important ecological roles in aquatic microenvironments, and are frequently investigated as potential biological control agents of mosquito disease vectors. Establishment of Toxorhynchites laboratory colonies can be challenging because for some species, mating and insemination either do not occur or require a prohibitive amount of laboratory space for success. Consequently, artificial insemination techniques have been developed to assist with mass rearing of these species. Herein we describe an adapted protocol for colony establishment of T. theobaldi, a species with broad distribution in the Neotropics. The success of the technique and its implications are discussed.

Lean IT Application of 5S/6S Technique in a SME

O Lean não é apenas uma prática. É uma revolução nas Tecnologias de Informação (TI) proporcionando uma maior e melhor utilização dos recursos e procurando alcançar custos mais baixos dos que existem atualmente. É muito mais do que uma lista de ferramentas e metodologias e para que seja estabelecido é necessário mudar comportamentos culturais e incentivar todas as organizações a pensarem de forma diferente sobre o poder da informação versus o valor do negócio. Normalmente associa-se o Lean à criação de valor para a organização. Mas o valor é significativo quando é trazido com eficiência e resultando na eliminação de processos que consomem tempo, recursos e espaço desnecessário. Os princípios Lean podem ajudar as organizações na melhoria da qualidade, redução de custos e no alcance da eficiência através de uma melhor produtividade. Existem vários conceitos Lean que podem ser associados a diferentes objetivos de resolução de problemas. Em particular, este trabalho é uma dissertação programada para analisar um novo paradigma sobre o Lean que surgiu recentemente - Lean para Tecnologias de Informação (Lean IT). Esta dissertação apresenta uma abordagem para o Lean IT (enquadramento, objetivos e metodologia) para realizar o trabalho e utiliza um único estudo de caso, com abordagem à técnica 5S/6S (até o terceiro nível de avaliação), numa Pequena, Média Empresa (PME), de forma a demonstrar a agregação de valor e as vantagens na eliminação de resíduos/desperdícios nos seus processos. A técnica também mostra a evolução da avaliação antes e depois da sua aplicação. Este estudo de caso individual avalia um Departamento de TI (com uma equipe de cinco colaboradores e um chefe de Departamento) através da observação direta, documentação e arquivos de registos e os equipamentos analisados são computadores, postos de trabalho e projetos (código desenvolvido, portais e outros serviços de TI). x Como guia, a metodologia inclui a preparação da avaliação em conjunto com o responsável/chefe do Departamento de TI, o desenrolar das operações, a identificação do fluxo de valor para cada atividade, o desenvolvimento de um plano de comunicação e a análise de cada passo da avaliação do fluxo de processamento. Os principais resultados estão refletidos nas novas ferramentas de trabalho (Microsoft SharePoint e Microsoft Project em detrimento do Microsoft Excel) que fornecem comunicação remota e controlo de projetos para todos os stakeholders, tais como, a gestão de topo, parceiros e clientes (algumas organizações incluem o Outsourcing no desenvolvimento de funcionalidades específicas). Os resultados também refletem-se na qualidade do trabalho, no cumprimento de prazos, na segurança física e lógica, na motivação dos colaboradores e na satisfação dos clientes. A técnica 5S/6S ajuda a esclarecer os conceitos e princípios Lean, exequibilidade e aumenta a curiosidade sobre a implementação da técnica noutros departamentos tais como o Financeiro e ou o de Recursos Humanos. Como forma de consolidação do trabalho tornou-se possível organizar a avaliação para que a organização possa candidatar-se a uma certificação na norma ISO/IEC 25010:2011, no modelo de qualidade de software (software é o core business desta PME). Mas tal só será possível se toda a organização atingir a padronização dos seus processos. Este estudo de caso mostra que os conceitos Lean e a aplicação de uma ou mais das suas técnicas (neste caso particular a técnica 5S/6S) ajuda a obter melhores resultados através da gestão e melhoria dos seus principais serviços.