Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Modelagem e simulação de ciclos a gás com resfriamento de ar na entrada

The optimization of energy generation systems has become a key issue for technological and social development, mainly in developing countries, where the electricity consumption rises sharply. Gas turbine cycle is an electricity generating system, which studies have demonstrated that inlet air cooling increases net power and thermal efficiency. Thus, this study intends to quantify these parameters for environments with different ambient temperature and relative humidity. Two types of air cooling were used: evaporative and absorption systems. The configuration parameters only with the gas turbine cycle were compared to those whose configuration allowed cooling. First, it was analyzed only evaporative cooling. Next, the absorption system was used for analysis. The last configuration mixed these two methods, dividing equally its flow. The results showed that thermal efficiency and net power increase in any case of cooling, with absorption system more advantageous in terms of generated energy, where an increase between 1 and 2 MW was observed, depending on the ambient conditions . When the two methods were working together at low relative humidity, it showed a thermal efficiency increase compared to absorption system, up to 2.4%. Evaporative cooling was less effective, but it is a good and cheap possibility to increase the cycle parameters at high temperature and low relative humidity

Avaliação do software Autodesk Revit 2016 para quantificação por meio da modelagem da informação da construção

The building budgeting quickly and accurately is a challenge faced by the companies in the sector. The cost estimation process is performed from the quantity takeoff and this process of quantification, historically, through the analysis of the project, scope of work and project information contained in 2D design, text files and spreadsheets. This method, in many cases, present itself flawed, influencing the making management decisions, once it is closely coupled to time and cost management. In this scenario, this work intends to make a critical analysis of conventional process of quantity takeoff, from the quantification through 2D designs, and with the use of the software Autodesk Revit 2016, which uses the concepts of building information modeling for automated quantity takeoff of 3D model construction. It is noted that the 3D modeling process should be aligned with the goals of budgeting. The use of BIM technology programs provides several benefits compared to traditional quantity takeoff process, representing gains in productivity, transparency and assertiveness

Modelagem fuzzy de dados climáticos estimados por modelo matemático - CCATT-BRAMS

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Estudo da cinética de degradação da resina benzoxazina e seus compósitos nanoestruturados

The benzoxaxine resin is a new class of thermoset phenolic resin, which is presenting, in the lasts decades, a great application in the aircraft industry due mainly to its excellent mechanical and thermal properties. This resin associates the mechanical properties of epoxy resin with the thermal and flame retardant properties of phenolic resin. In this context, they are considered polymers of high performance and they are excellent candidates to replace the current thermoset matrices used in the processing of high performance composites. Thus, in this study nanostructured composites Benzoxazine/CNT were produced at different concentrations of functionalized and non-functionalized CNT (0,1%; 0,5% and 1,0% w/w). The thermal stability of the benzoxazine resin and its nanostructured composites was studied using thermogravimetry (TGA) and degradation kinetic model Ozawa-Wall-Flynn (O-W-F). The thermal characterization also included differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and dynamic-mechanical analysis, infrared spectroscopy with Fourier transform (FTIR) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM).The introduction of non-functionalized CNT at low concentrations resulted in nanostructured composites with better thermal properties in relation to the neat resin. For all cases, however, the dispersion of CNT in the matrix was ineffective

Modelagem auto-regressiva na previsão de demanda dos produtos de uma empresa do setor químico

Considering the high competitiveness in the industrial chemical sector, demand forecast is a relevant factor for decision-making. There is a need for tools capable of assisting in the analysis and definition of the forecast. In that sense, the objective is to generate the chemical industry forecast using an advanced forecasting model and thus verify the accuracy of the method. Because it is time series with seasonality, the model of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average - SARIMA generated reliable forecasts and acceding to the problem analyzed, thus enabling, through validation with real data improvements in the management and decision making of supply chain

Modelagem e simulação de ciclos a gás com resfriamento de ar na entrada

The optimization of energy generation systems has become a key issue for technological and social development, mainly in developing countries, where the electricity consumption rises sharply. Gas turbine cycle is an electricity generating system, which studies have demonstrated that inlet air cooling increases net power and thermal efficiency. Thus, this study intends to quantify these parameters for environments with different ambient temperature and relative humidity. Two types of air cooling were used: evaporative and absorption systems. The configuration parameters only with the gas turbine cycle were compared to those whose configuration allowed cooling. First, it was analyzed only evaporative cooling. Next, the absorption system was used for analysis. The last configuration mixed these two methods, dividing equally its flow. The results showed that thermal efficiency and net power increase in any case of cooling, with absorption system more advantageous in terms of generated energy, where an increase between 1 and 2 MW was observed, depending on the ambient conditions . When the two methods were working together at low relative humidity, it showed a thermal efficiency increase compared to absorption system, up to 2.4%. Evaporative cooling was less effective, but it is a good and cheap possibility to increase the cycle parameters at high temperature and low relative humidity

Avaliação do software Autodesk Revit 2016 para quantificação por meio da modelagem da informação da construção

The building budgeting quickly and accurately is a challenge faced by the companies in the sector. The cost estimation process is performed from the quantity takeoff and this process of quantification, historically, through the analysis of the project, scope of work and project information contained in 2D design, text files and spreadsheets. This method, in many cases, present itself flawed, influencing the making management decisions, once it is closely coupled to time and cost management. In this scenario, this work intends to make a critical analysis of conventional process of quantity takeoff, from the quantification through 2D designs, and with the use of the software Autodesk Revit 2016, which uses the concepts of building information modeling for automated quantity takeoff of 3D model construction. It is noted that the 3D modeling process should be aligned with the goals of budgeting. The use of BIM technology programs provides several benefits compared to traditional quantity takeoff process, representing gains in productivity, transparency and assertiveness

Modelagem fuzzy de dados climáticos estimados por modelo matemático - CCATT-BRAMS

Pós-graduação em Engenharia Mecânica - FEG

Purification, characterization and structural determination of chitinases produced by Moniliophthora perniciosa

The enzyme chitinase from Moniliophthora perniciosa the causative agent of the witches' broom disease in Theobroma cacao, was partially purified with ammonium sulfate and filtration by Sephacryl S-200 using sodium phosphate as an extraction buffer. Response surface methodology (RSM) was used to determine the optimum pH and temperature conditions. Four different isoenzymes were obtained: ChitMp I, ChitMp II, ChitMp III and ChitMp IV. ChitMp I had an optimum temperature at 44-73ºC and an optimum pH at 7.0-8.4. ChitMp II had an optimum temperature at 45-73ºC and an optimum pH at 7.0-8.4. ChitMp III had an optimum temperature at 54-67ºC and an optimum pH at 7.3-8.8. ChitMp IV had an optimum temperature at 60ºC and an optimum pH at 7.0. For the computational biology, the primary sequence was determined in silico from the database of the Genome/Proteome Project of M. perniciosa, yielding a sequence with 564 bp and 188 amino acids that was used for the three-dimensional design in a comparative modeling methodology. The generated models were submitted to validation using Procheck 3.0 and ANOLEA. The model proposed for the chitinase was subjected to a dynamic analysis over a 1 ns interval, resulting in a model with 91.7% of the residues occupying favorable places on the Ramachandran plot and an RMS of 2.68.

Efeito do detalhamento dos ventos na modelagem de agitação marítima no oeste do Atlântico Sul

Neste trabalho foram feitas simulações numéricas de ondas de gravidade da superfície do mar, utilizando o modelo WAVEWATCH-III versão 1.18 sobre o Atlântico, com a finalidade de avaliar a importância do detalhamento dos ventos para diferentes estados de mar. O domínio escolhido foi delimitado pelos paralelos 18ºS e 45ºS, e pelos meridianos 035ºW e 070ºW, de modo que o centro do domínio ficasse sobre o litoral do RS. Para cada evento, foram inseridos ventos oriundos do modelo de mesoescala RAMS (grade de 0,34º x 0,284º e saída temporal a cada hora) e oriundos do modelo global do NCEP (grade de 2,5º x 2,5º e saída temporal a cada 6 horas), no intuito de verificar a influência das escalas na geração de ondas de superfície do mar. Notou-se que nos eventos extremos, as simulações superestimaram as alturas das ondas. Foi verificado também, que as integrações, alimentadas por dados da Reanálise do NCEP, foram as mais discrepantes dos valores observados in situ, se comparados com os valores resultantes da simulação com os ventos oriundos do modelo RAMS. O comportamento mais preciso dos casos RAMS evidenciou a importância dos fenômenos de mesoescala para a geração dos trens de ondas; ou seja, das ondas que se propagam em grupo. Na ocorrência de calmaria, as ondas foram subestimadas, sendo então levantadas duas linhas de ação: a primeira de ampliar o domínio escolhido, pois esse padrão parece estar associado a ondulações geradas em uma região ainda mais remota e a segunda, iniciar o WW3 com um campo de onda mais realístico.

Modelagem para o dimensionamento de um sistema de microirrigação utilizando microtubos ramificados

Este trabalho foi realizado com o objetivo de se modelar e avaliar o comportamento hidráulico de microtubos ramificados, com base na relação entre vazão e comprimento dos microtubos para uma pressão de entrada, operando sob regime laminar. Dois modelos matemáticos foram estudados, em que um considerou a perda localizada de carga no dimensionamento dos microtubos ramificados e o outro a desconsiderou. O experimento para validação dos modelos foi conduzido no Laboratrio de Hidráulica da Escola Superior de Agricultura "Luiz de Queiroz" (ESALQ-USP), Piracicaba, SP, medindo-se a vazão dos emissores para as pressões de 14,7; 18,6; 39,2 e 58,9 kPa. A configuração do sistema de irrigação consistiu de uma linha lateral com diâmetro nominal (DN) de 10,0 mm, na qual foram inseridos microtubos conectores com DN de 0,8 mm conectados a um segmento de tubo de derivação e acoplados seis microtubos emissores com DN de 0,7 mm. Verificou-se que, dentre os modelos matemáticos, aquele que considerou a perda localizada de carga apresentou maior exatidão pois teve elevado, um bom índice de Willmott e baixo erro quadrático médio.

Qualidade do relato dos procedimentos metodológicos em periódicos nacionais na área de administração de empresas: o caso da modelagem em equações estruturais nos periódicos nacionais entre 2001 e 2010

Esta pesquisa teve o objetivo de avaliar a qualidade da descrição dos procedimentos metodológicos de artigos que utilizaram a modelagem em equações estruturais (MEE), incluindo a análise fatorial confirmatória e a path analysis, e que foram publicados na RAE, RAUSP, REAd, O&S, RAC e RAE-eletrônica entre 2001 e 2010. A partir da revisão da literatura metodológica, foi elaborado um check list para avaliar as treze etapas da MEE, sendo validado com 33 especialistas. Os principais resultados da análise de 68 artigos encontrados foram: a impossibilidade de replicar os estudos devido à falta de informações e o uso de estratégias exploratórias sem a posterior validação. Por outro lado, a justificativa do método utilizado e a explicação das implicações teóricas dos resultados são aspectos que têm sido atendidos plenamente. O check list foi um importante subproduto desta pesquisa, pois, a partir dele, são propostas novas linhas de investigação e até mesmo seu uso como ferramenta didática.

Desafios atuais da modelagem preditiva de distribuição de espécies

A modelagem preditiva tem sido aplicada para analisar a distribuição geográfica de espécies, a partir de extrapolações das características ambientais dos locais conhecidos de ocorrência. O interesse por esse tipo de modelagem deve-se à necessidade de respostas rápidas e fundamentadas para as ameaças que as espécies têm enfrentado, devido à perda de habitat, invasão de espécies exóticas, mudanças climáticas, entre outros. Este artigo oferece uma visão geral dos avanços recentes no campo da modelagem e visa incentivar a discussão e aplicação desse método, que pode auxiliar tanto na aquisição de conhecimento básico sobre a biologia das espécies, quanto na análise e formulação de políticas para sua conservação.