Improving the health and well-being of women at risk for neural tube defect recurrence

There is growing interest in providing women with internatal care, a package of healthcare and ancillary services that can improve their health during the period after the termination of one pregnancy but before the conception of the next pregnancy. Women who have had a pregnancy affected by a neural tube defect can especially benefit from internatal care because they are at increased risk for recurrence and improvements to their health during the inter-pregnancy period can prevent future negative birth outcomes. The dissertation provides three papers that inform the content of internatal care for women at risk for recurrence by examining descriptive epidemiology to develop an accurate risk profile of the population, assessing whether women at risk for recurrence would benefit from a psychosocial intervention, and determining how to improve health promotion efforts targeting folic acid use.^ Paper one identifies information relevant for developing risk profiles and conducting risk assessments. A number of investigations have found that the risk for neural tube defects differs between non-Hispanic Whites and Hispanics. To understand the risk difference, the descriptive epidemiology of spina bifida and anencephaly was examined for Hispanics and non-Hispanic Whites based on data from the Texas Birth Defects Registry for the years 1999 through 2004. Crude and adjusted birth prevalence ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were calculated between descriptive epidemiologic characteristics and anencephaly and spina bifida for non-Hispanic Whites and for Hispanics. In both race/ethnic groups, anencephaly expressed an inverse relationship with maternal age and a positive linear relationship with parity. Both relationships were stronger in non-Hispanic Whites. Female infants had a higher risk for anencephaly in non-Hispanic Whites. Lower maternal education was associated with increased risk for spina bifida in Hispanics.^ Paper two assesses the need for a psychosocial intervention. For mothers who have children with spina bifida, the transition to motherhood can be stressful. This qualitative study explored the process of becoming a mother to a child with spina bifida focusing particularly on stress and coping in the immediate postnatal environment. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with six mothers who have children with spina bifida. Mothers were asked about their initial emotional and problem-based coping efforts, the quality and kind of support provided by health providers, and the characteristics of their meaning-based coping efforts; questions matched Transactional Model of Stress and Coping (TMSC) constructs. Analysis of the responses revealed a number of modifiable stress and coping transactions, the most salient being: health providers are in a position to address beliefs about self-causality and prevent mothers from experiencing the repercussions that stem from maintaining these beliefs. ^ Paper three identifies considerations when creating health promotion materials targeting folic acid use. A brochure was designed using concepts from the Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM). Three focus groups comprising 26 mothers of children with spina bifida evaluated the brochure. One focus group was conducted in Spanish-only, the other two focus groups were conducted in English and Spanish combined. Qualitative analysis of coded transcripts revealed that a brochure is a helpful adjunct. Questions about folic acid support the inclusion of an insert with basic information. There may be a need to develop different educational material for Hispanics so the importance of folic acid is provided in a situational context. Some participants blamed themselves for their pregnancy outcome which may affect their receptivity to messages in the brochure. The women's desire for photographs that affect their perception of threat and their identification with the second role model indicate they belong to PAPM Stage 2 and 3. Participants preferred colorful envelopes, high quality paper, intimidating photographs, simple words, conversational style sentences, and positive messages.^ These papers develop the content of risk assessment, psychosocial intervention, and health promotion components of internatal care as they apply to women at risk for recurrence. The findings provided evidence for considering parity and maternal age when assessing nutritional risk. The two dissimilarities between the two race/ethnic groups, infant sex and maternal education lent support to creating separate risk profiles. Interviews with mothers of children with spina bifida revealed the existence of unmet needs-suggesting that a psychosocial intervention provided as part of internatal care can strengthen and support women's well-being. Segmenting the audience according to race/ethnicity and PAPM stage can improve the relevance of print materials promoting folic acid use.^

The application of latent variable models to the assessment of determinants of HIV risk behavior

Studies on the relationship between psychosocial determinants and HIV risk behaviors have produced little evidence to support hypotheses based on theoretical relationships. One limitation inherent in many articles in the literature is the method of measurement of the determinants and the analytic approach selected. ^ To reduce the misclassification associated with unit scaling of measures specific to internalized homonegativity, I evaluated the psychometric properties of the Reactions to Homosexuality scale in a confirmatory factor analytic framework. In addition, I assessed the measurement invariance of the scale across racial/ethnic classifications in a sample of men who have sex with men. The resulting measure contained eight items loading on three first-order factors. Invariance assessment identified metric and partial strong invariance between racial/ethnic groups in the sample. ^ Application of the updated measure to a structural model allowed for the exploration of direct and indirect effects of internalized homonegativity on unprotected anal intercourse. Pathways identified in the model show that drug and alcohol use at last sexual encounter, the number of sexual partners in the previous three months and sexual compulsivity all contribute directly to risk behavior. Internalized homonegativity reduced the likelihood of exposure to drugs, alcohol or higher numbers of partners. For men who developed compulsive sexual behavior as a coping strategy for internalized homonegativity, there was an increase in the prevalence odds of risk behavior. ^ In the final stage of the analysis, I conducted a latent profile analysis of the items in the updated Reactions to Homosexuality scale. This analysis identified five distinct profiles, which suggested that the construct was not homogeneous in samples of men who have sex with men. Lack of prior consideration of these distinct manifestations of internalized homonegativity may have contributed to the analytic difficulty in identifying a relationship between the trait and high-risk sexual practices. ^

A multivariate frailty model for disease recurrences and survival

A multivariate frailty hazard model is developed for joint-modeling of three correlated time-to-event outcomes: (1) local recurrence, (2) distant recurrence, and (3) overall survival. The term frailty is introduced to model population heterogeneity. The dependence is modeled by conditioning on a shared frailty that is included in the three hazard functions. Independent variables can be included in the model as covariates. The Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are used to estimate the posterior distributions of model parameters. The algorithm used in present application is the hybrid Metropolis-Hastings algorithm, which simultaneously updates all parameters with evaluations of gradient of log posterior density. The performance of this approach is examined based on simulation studies using Exponential and Weibull distributions. We apply the proposed methods to a study of patients with soft tissue sarcoma, which motivated this research. Our results indicate that patients with chemotherapy had better overall survival with hazard ratio of 0.242 (95% CI: 0.094 - 0.564) and lower risk of distant recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.636 (95% CI: 0.487 - 0.860), but not significantly better in local recurrence with hazard ratio of 0.799 (95% CI: 0.575 - 1.054). The advantages and limitations of the proposed models, and future research directions are discussed. ^

Risk factors for encephalitis and death from West Nile virus infection: An analysis of hospitalized cases in Houston, Texas from 2002--2008

We conducted a nested case-control study to determine the significant risk factors for developing encephalitis from West Nile virus (WNV) infection. The purpose of this research project was to expand the previously published Houston study of 2002–2004 patients to include data on Houston patients from four additional years (2005–2008) to determine if there were any differences in risk factors shown to be associated with developing the more severe outcomes of WNV infection, encephalitis and death, by having this larger sample size. A re-analysis of the risk factors for encephalitis and death was conducted on all of the patients from 2002–2008 and was the focus of this proposed research. This analysis allowed for the determination to be made that there are differences in the outcome in the risk factors for encephalitis and death with an increased sample size. Retrospective medical chart reviews were completed for the 265 confirmed WNV hospitalized patients; 153 patients had encephalitis (WNE), 112 had either viral syndrome with fever (WNF) or meningitis (WNM); a total of 22 patients died. Univariate logistic regression analyses on demographic, comorbidities, and social risk factors was conducted in a similar manner as in the previously conducted study to determine the risk factors for developing encephalitis from WNV. A multivariate model was developed by using model building strategies for the multivariate logistic regression analysis. The hypothesis of this study was that there would be additional risk factors shown to be significant with the increase in sample size of the dataset. This analysis with a greater sample size and increased power supports the hypothesis in that there were additional risk factors shown to be statistically associated with the more severe outcomes of WNV infection (WNE or death). Based on univariate logistic regression results, these data showed that even though age of 20–44 years was statistically significant as a protecting effect for developing WNE in the original study, the expanded sample lacked significance. This study showed a significant WNE risk factor to be chronic alcohol abuse, when it was not significant in the original analysis. Other WNE risk factors identified in this analysis that showed to be significant but were not significant in the original analysis were cancer not in remission > 5 years, history of stroke, and chronic renal disease. When comparing the two analyses with death as an outcome, two risk factors that were shown to be significant in the original analysis but not in the expanded dataset analysis were diabetes mellitus and immunosuppression. Three risk factors shown to be significant in this expanded analysis but were not significant in the original study were illicit drug use, heroin or opiate use, and injection drug use. However, with the multiple logistic regression models, the same independent risk factors for developing encephalitis of age and history of hypertension including drug induced hypertension were consistent in both studies.^

Association of part-time employment and sexual risk-taking behaviors among middle school students

Background. Previous research shows inconsistent results as to the association between part-time employment and sexual behavior among younger teens. Studies of older teens cannot be generalized to younger teens because of the wide differences in types of work performed, nature of work environments, and work intensity. Objective. Examine the relationship between part-time employment and sexual behavior in a cross-sectional sample of public middle school students in Houston, Texas. Methods . The study presents a secondary analysis of data from the It’s Your Game…Keep it Real baseline data collection (11/2004–1/2005). It’s Your Game… is an intervention program for middle school students designed to prevent Sexually Transmitted Infections. Statistical analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to examine the association between part-time employment and vaginal intercourse: (a) ever had sex; and (b) current sexual activity. Results. Overall, 13.2% of students worked for pay; male students were 1.5 times as likely as females to be working. Of all the students, 11.0% had had sexual intercourse; students who worked were 3 times more likely to be sexually experienced than those who did not. Among students who were sexually experienced, 67.0% were currently sexually active. After adjusting for the other covariates, Hispanic students were almost 3.6 times more likely to report current sexual activity compared to students in other racial/ethnic groups. In univariate analysis, students who worked 1-5 hrs/week were more likely to be sexually experienced than those not currently employed, and the likelihood increased with number of hours worked. There is a similar pattern in the multivariate model, but the odds ratios are too close for the evidence to be more than suggestive. Of sexually experienced students, students working 1-5 hrs/week were 2.7 times more likely to report current sexual intercourse than those not working; those working >5 hrs/week were 4.7 times more likely. The multivariate model showed a similar increase in likelihood, and adjustment for covariates increased these associations: students who worked 1-5 hrs/week were 3.6 times more likely to report current sexual intercourse, and students who worked >5 hrs/week were 4.5 times more likely, than students not currently employed.^

Exploring race/ethnicity as a risk factor for mortality in newborns following congenital heart surgery at a center of excellence

The purpose of this study was to determine if race/ethnicity was a significant risk factor for hospital mortality in children following congenital heart surgery in a contemporary sample of newborns with congenital heart disease. Unlike previous studies that utilized administrative databases, this study utilized clinical data collected at the point of care to examine racial/ethnic outcome differences in the context of the patients' clinical condition and their overall perioperative experience. A retrospective cohort design was used. The study sample consisted of 316 newborns (<31 days of age) who underwent congenital heart surgery between January 2007 through December 2009. A multivariate logistic regression model was used to determine the impact of race/ethnicity, insurance status, presence of a spatial anomaly, prenatal diagnosis, postoperative sepsis, cardiac arrest, respiratory failure, unplanned reoperation, and total length of stay in the intensive care unit on outcomes following congenital heart surgery in newborns. The study findings showed that the strongest predictors of hospital mortality following congenital heart surgery in this cohort were postoperative cardiac arrest, postoperative respiratory failure, having a spatial anomaly, and total ICU LOS. Race/ethnicity and insurance status were not significant risk factors. The institution where this study was conducted is designated as a center of excellence for congenital heart disease. These centers have state-of-the-art facilities, extensive experience in caring for children with congenital heart disease, and superior outcomes. This study suggests that optimal care delivery for newborns requiring congenital heart surgery at a center of excellence portends exceptional outcomes and this benefit is conferred upon the entire patient population despite the race/ethnicity of the patients. From a public health and health services view, this study also contributes to the overall body of knowledge on racial/ethnic disparities in children with congenital heart defects and puts forward the possibility of a relationship between quality of care and racial/ethnic disparities. Further study is required to examine the impact of race/ethnicity on the long-term outcomes of these children as they encounter the disparate components of the health care delivery system. There is also opportunity to study the role of race/ethnicity on the hospital morbidity in these patients considering current expectations for hospital survival are very high, and much of the current focus for quality improvement rests in minimizing the development of patient morbidities.^

Concomitant Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection and type 2 diabetes: A descriptive model with global health implications

The type 2 diabetes (diabetes) pandemic is recognized as a threat to tuberculosis (TB) control worldwide. This secondary data analysis project estimated the contribution of diabetes to TB in a binational community on the Texas-Mexico border where both diseases occur. Newly-diagnosed TB patients > 20 years of age were prospectively enrolled at Texas-Mexico border clinics between January 2006 and November 2008. Upon enrollment, information regarding social, demographic, and medical risks for TB was collected at interview, including self-reported diabetes. In addition, self-reported diabetes was supported by blood-confirmation according to guidelines published by the American Diabetes Association (ADA). For this project, data was compared to existing statistics for TB incidence and diabetes prevalence from the corresponding general populations of each study site to estimate the relative and attributable risks of diabetes to TB. In concordance with historical sociodemographic data provided for TB patients with self-reported diabetes, our TB patients with diabetes also lacked the risk factors traditionally associated with TB (alcohol abuse, drug abuse, history of incarceration, and HIV infection); instead, the majority of our TB patients with diabetes were characterized by overweight/obesity, chronic hyperglycemia, and older median age. In addition, diabetes prevalence among our TB patients was significantly higher than in the corresponding general populations. Findings of this study will help accurately characterize TB patients with diabetes, thus aiding in the timely recognition and diagnosis of TB in a population not traditionally viewed as at-risk. We provide epidemiological and biological evidence that diabetes continues to be an increasingly important risk factor for TB.^

Lifetime changes in body mass index and risk of breast cancer in minority women

Introduction: Obesity is an epidemic in the United States, especially among Hispanics and African-Americans. Studies of obesity and breast cancer risk and subtype have been conducted primarily in non-Hispanic whites. Obesity is inversely associated with premenopausal breast cancer, but both obesity and weight gain increase the risk of postmenopausal disease. Obesity has been associated with breast cancer subtype in many studies. Methods: To assess the association between changes in body mass index (BMI) over the lifetime, weight gain, and breast cancer in Mexican-American women, we conducted a case-control study using 149 cases and 330 age-matched controls. In a second study, we identified 212 African-American and 167 Mexican-American women with breast cancer in the ongoing ELLA Bi-National Breast Cancer Study, abstracted medical charts to classify tumors as ER+/PR+, HER2+, or ER-/PR-/HER2-, and assessed the association between lifetime changes in body mass index, weight gain, and breast cancer subtype. In both studies, growth mixture modeling was use to identify trajectories of change in BMI over the lifetime, and these trajectories were used as exposures in a logistic regression model to calculate odds ratios (OR). Results: There was no association between trajectories of change in BMI and breast cancer risk in Mexican-American women. In addition, BMI at ages 15 and 30 and at diagnosis was not associated with breast cancer. However, adult weight gain was inversely associated with breast cancer risk (per 5kg, OR=0.92, 95% CI: 0.85-0.99). The case-only analysis found no association between obesity at ages 15 and 30 and at diagnosis and breast cancer subtype. Further, there was no association between adult weight gain (defined as weight change from age 15 to time of diagnosis) and breast cancer subtype. Conclusions: Obesity was not associated with breast cancer risk in Mexican-American women, while adult weight gain reduced the risk independently of menopausal status. These results are contradictory of those in non-Hispanic white women and suggest that the etiology of breast cancer may differ by race/ethnicity. Further, obesity was not associated with breast cancer subtype in African-American and Mexican-American women, contrary to results in non-Hispanic white women. ^

Maternal Role & High-Risk Pregnancy Experience with Antepartum Hospitalization

Purpose. The focus of maternal role development, historically, has been on the tasks and processes during pregnancy as they relate to postpartum role transition. The purpose of this study was to investigate how women hospitalized with high-risk pregnancy cognitively construct pregnancy and impending motherhood. ^ Design. The study employed a triangulation design using a convergence model with a dominant focused ethnographic approach. ^ Setting. The antepartum units of two tertiary care centers in a large metropolitan city in southeast Texas. ^ Sample. Data saturation was determined with thirteen (13) primigravid women who had been hospitalized more than 72 hours with preterm labor (PTL) or preterm premature rupture of membranes (PPROM) who subsequently delivered seventeen (17) infants which included 4 sets of twins. ^ Methods. Open-ended, semi-structured interviews and field work were used to explore the development of maternal role in this population. After collecting descriptive data, long individual interviews were conducted and the Prenatal Self Evaluation Questionnaire (PSEQ), an instrument to measure prenatal adaptation to pregnancy, was administered. The interview focused on exploring the woman's experiences of pregnancy and impending motherhood while hospitalized. Interview data and field notes were coded and analyzed using qualitative thematic analytic techniques. The PSEQ was scored and the findings of the qualitative data and PSEQ data were compared. ^ Findings. Thematic analysis of the qualitative data provided an understanding of the cognitive process that occurs as the pregnant woman builds a relationship with the fetus. Thematic analysis resulted in a conceptual model with two complementary components that occur throughout the pregnancy: Establishing a Relationship and Dynamic Equilibrium. Establishing a Relationship includes subthemes of: Courting, Building a Connection, and Engagement. Dynamic equilibrium is the balance between expectations and reality and exists regardless of pregnancy complications. The negotiation of this potential imbalance is triggered by uncertainty, loss of autonomy and control, and isolation and is exacerbated by the high-risk pregnancy and subsequent hospitalization. These triggers can serve as obstacles to maternal role development, but may be mediated by external support from friends and family or health care providers. Support from others may come in the form of anticipatory guidance, presence, or activities that promote self-agency. PSEQ scores were similar to previous reports, but due to the small sample, scores were used primarily for comparison to qualitative data. The qualitative findings were congruent with the PSEQ findings in all of the subscales except in the concern for the well-being of the baby. Interview reports included comments demonstrating significant concern for the well-being of the infant, yet the related subscale did not demonstrate such concern. ^ Conclusions. An understanding of the cognitive process involved in establishing a relationship with the developing fetus related to impending motherhood and the importance of dynamic equilibrium can allow healthcare providers and those who interact with pregnant women to support development of the maternal role and anticipate those barriers that may impede that process. Findings from this study identify those triggers and mediators that influence development of the maternal role and suggest potential intervening strategies for those involved in the care of childbearing families. ^

Determinants of participation in worksite health risk appraisal (HRA) programs

The purpose of this study was to apply the Behavioral Model of Health Services Utilization to examine an existing worksite HRA program to identify and examine the roles of determinants of participation in HRA programs. The program consisted of three activities: questionnaire, physical examination, and group interpretation sessions. All of the 1821 employees were eligible for the program; 523 (29%) participated in at least one activity. Results from bivariate analyses suggest that being female, being white, having fewer dependents, and having higher medical claims for the past year were positively associated with participation. Results of logistic regression suggest that Age, Sex, Race, Marital, Number of Dependents, Job Title, Months with the Company, and a log transformed value of Employee's Total Medical Claims were all significant determinants of participation. Applications of the logistic regression models, other factors that should be investigated in future studies, and the limitations of the study were discussed. ^

A multiplicative model for standardizing vital rates without using external standards

Standardization is a common method for adjusting confounding factors when comparing two or more exposure category to assess excess risk. Arbitrary choice of standard population in standardization introduces selection bias due to healthy worker effect. Small sample in specific groups also poses problems in estimating relative risk and the statistical significance is problematic. As an alternative, statistical models were proposed to overcome such limitations and find adjusted rates. In this dissertation, a multiplicative model is considered to address the issues related to standardized index namely: Standardized Mortality Ratio (SMR) and Comparative Mortality Factor (CMF). The model provides an alternative to conventional standardized technique. Maximum likelihood estimates of parameters of the model are used to construct an index similar to the SMR for estimating relative risk of exposure groups under comparison. Parametric Bootstrap resampling method is used to evaluate the goodness of fit of the model, behavior of estimated parameters and variability in relative risk on generated sample. The model provides an alternative to both direct and indirect standardization method. ^

Design of long-term animal bioassay for low-dose extrapolation using a multistage model

Conventional designs of animal bioassays allocate the same number of animals into control and dose groups to explore the spontaneous and induced tumor incidence rates, respectively. The purpose of such bioassays are (a) to determine whether or not the substance exhibits carcinogenic properties, and (b) if so, to estimate the human response at relatively low doses. In this study, it has been found that the optimal allocation to the experimental groups which, in some sense, minimize the error of the estimated response for low dose extrapolation is associated with the dose level and tumor risk. The number of dose levels has been investigated at the affordable experimental cost. The pattern of the administered dose, 1 MTD, 1/2 MTD, 1/4 MTD,....., etc. plus control, gives the most reasonable arrangement for the low dose extrapolation purpose. The arrangement of five dose groups may make the highest dose trivial. A four-dose design can circumvent this problem and has also one degree of freedom for testing the goodness-of-fit of the response model.^ An example using the data on liver tumors induced in mice in a lifetime study of feeding dieldrin (Walker et al., 1973) is implemented with the methodology. The results are compared with conclusions drawn from other studies. ^

A case-control study to identify risk factors for preterm labor in Colorado Springs, Colorado

The study objectives were to determine risk factors for preterm labor (PTL) in Colorado Springs, CO, with emphasis on altitude and psychosocial factors, and to develop a model that identifies women at high risk for PTL. Three hundred and thirty patients with PTL were matched to 460 control patients without PTL using insurance category as an indirect measure of social class. Data were gathered by patient interview and review of medical records. Seven risk groups were compared: (1) Altitude change and travel; (2) Psychosocial ((a) child, sexual, spouse, alcohol and drug abuse; (b) neuroses and psychoses; (c) serious accidents and injuries; (d) broken home (maternal parental separation); (e) assault (physical and sexual); and (f) stress (emotional, domestic, occupational, financial and general)); (3) demographic; (4) maternal physical condition; (5) Prenatal care; (6) Behavioral risks; and (7) Medical factors. Analysis was by logistic regression. Results demonstrated altitude change before or after conception and travel during pregnancy to be non-significant, even after adjustment for potential confounding variables. Five significant psychosocial risk factors were determined: Maternal sex abuse (p = 0.006), physical assault (p = 0.025), nervous breakdown (p = 0.011), past occupational injury (p = 0.016), and occupational stress (p = 0.028). Considering all seven risk groups in the logistic regression, we chose a logistic model with 11 risk factors. Two risk factors were psychosocial (maternal spouse abuse and past occupational injury), 1 was pertinent to maternal physical condition ($\le$130 lbs. pre-pregnancy weight), 1 to prenatal care ($\le$10 prenatal care visits), 2 pertinent to behavioral risks ($>$15 cigarettes per day and $\le$30 lbs. weight gain) and 5 medical factors (abnormal genital culture, previous PTB, primiparity, vaginal bleeding and vaginal discharge). We conclude that altitude change is not a risk factor for PTL and that selected psychosocial factors are significant risk factors for PTL. ^

Bayesian and survival model for tumor relapse status and disease-specific survival, with applications to breast cancer

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer-related death in women in the United States. Studies on ipsilateral breast tumor relapse (IBTR) status and disease-specific survival will help guide clinic treatment and predict patient prognosis.^ After breast conservation therapy, patients with breast cancer may experience breast tumor relapse. This relapse is classified into two distinct types: true local recurrence (TR) and new ipsilateral primary tumor (NP). However, the methods used to classify the relapse types are imperfect and are prone to misclassification. In addition, some observed survival data (e.g., time to relapse and time from relapse to death)are strongly correlated with relapse types. The first part of this dissertation presents a Bayesian approach to (1) modeling the potentially misclassified relapse status and the correlated survival information, (2) estimating the sensitivity and specificity of the diagnostic methods, and (3) quantify the covariate effects on event probabilities. A shared frailty was used to account for the within-subject correlation between survival times. The inference was conducted using a Bayesian framework via Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation implemented in softwareWinBUGS. Simulation was used to validate the Bayesian method and assess its frequentist properties. The new model has two important innovations: (1) it utilizes the additional survival times correlated with the relapse status to improve the parameter estimation, and (2) it provides tools to address the correlation between the two diagnostic methods conditional to the true relapse types.^ Prediction of patients at highest risk for IBTR after local excision of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) remains a clinical concern. The goals of the second part of this dissertation were to evaluate a published nomogram from Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center, to determine the risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS treated with local excision, and to determine whether there is a subset of patients at low risk of IBTR. Patients who had undergone local excision from 1990 through 2007 at MD Anderson Cancer Center with a final diagnosis of DCIS (n=794) were included in this part. Clinicopathologic factors and the performance of the Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center nomogram for prediction of IBTR were assessed for 734 patients with complete data. Nomogram for prediction of 5- and 10-year IBTR probabilities were found to demonstrate imperfect calibration and discrimination, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of .63 and a concordance index of .63. In conclusion, predictive models for IBTR in DCIS patients treated with local excision are imperfect. Our current ability to accurately predict recurrence based on clinical parameters is limited.^ The American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging of breast cancer is widely used to determine prognosis, yet survival within each AJCC stage shows wide variation and remains unpredictable. For the third part of this dissertation, biologic markers were hypothesized to be responsible for some of this variation, and the addition of biologic markers to current AJCC staging were examined for possibly provide improved prognostication. The initial cohort included patients treated with surgery as first intervention at MDACC from 1997 to 2006. Cox proportional hazards models were used to create prognostic scoring systems. AJCC pathologic staging parameters and biologic tumor markers were investigated to devise the scoring systems. Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) data was used as the external cohort to validate the scoring systems. Binary indicators for pathologic stage (PS), estrogen receptor status (E), and tumor grade (G) were summed to create PS+EG scoring systems devised to predict 5-year patient outcomes. These scoring systems facilitated separation of the study population into more refined subgroups than the current AJCC staging system. The ability of the PS+EG score to stratify outcomes was confirmed in both internal and external validation cohorts. The current study proposes and validates a new staging system by incorporating tumor grade and ER status into current AJCC staging. We recommend that biologic markers be incorporating into revised versions of the AJCC staging system for patients receiving surgery as the first intervention.^ Chapter 1 focuses on developing a Bayesian method to solve misclassified relapse status and application to breast cancer data. Chapter 2 focuses on evaluation of a breast cancer nomogram for predicting risk of IBTR in patients with DCIS after local excision gives the statement of the problem in the clinical research. Chapter 3 focuses on validation of a novel staging system for disease-specific survival in patients with breast cancer treated with surgery as the first intervention. ^

Effect of smoking on the association between periodontitis and incidence of coronary heart disease: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Multiple studies have shown an association between periodontitis and coronary heart disease due to the chronic inflammatory nature of periodontitis. Also, studies have indicated similar risk factors and patho-physiologic mechanisms for periodontitis and CHD. Among these factors, smoking has been the most discussed common risk factor and some studies suggested the periodontitis - CHD association to be largely a result of confounding due to smoking or inadequate adjustment for it. We conducted a secondary data analysis of the Dental ARIC Study, an ancillary study to the ARIC Study, to evaluate the effect of smoking on the periodontitis - CHD association using three periodontitis classifications namely, BGI, AAP-CDC, and Dental-ARIC classification (Beck et al 2001). We also compared these results with edentulous ARIC participants. Using Cox proportional hazard models, we found that the individuals with the most severe form of periodontitis in each of the three classifications (BGI: HR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.15 – 2.13; AAP-CDC: HR = 1.42, 95%CI: 1.13 – 1.79; and Dental-ARIC: HR = 1.49, 95%CI: 1.22 – 1.83) were at a significantly higher risk of incident CHD in the unadjusted models; whereas only BGI-P3 showed statistically significant increased risk in the smoking adjusted models (HR = 1.43, 95%CI: 1.04 – 1.96). However none of the categories in any of the classifications showed significant association when a list of traditional CHD risk factors was introduced into the models. On the other hand, edentulous participants showed significant results when compared to the dentate ARIC participants in the crude (HR = 1.56, 95%CI: 1.34 – 1.82); smoking adjusted (HR = 1.39, 95%CI: 1.18 – 1.64) age, race and sex adjusted (HR = 1.52, 95%CI: 1.30 – 1.77); and ARIC traditional risk factors (except smoking) adjusted (HR = 1.27, 95%CI: 1.02 – 1.57) models. Also, the risk remained significantly higher even when smoking was introduced in the age, sex and race adjusted model (HR = 1.38, 95%CI: 1.17 – 1.63). Smoking did not reduce the hazard ratio by more than 8% when it was included in any of the Cox models. ^ This is the first study to include the three most recent case definitions of periodontitis simultaneously while looking at its association with incident coronary heart disease. We found smoking to be partially confounding the periodontitis and coronary heart disease association and edentulism to be significantly associated with incident CHD even after adjusting for smoking and the ARIC traditional risk factors. The difference in the three periodontitis classifications was not found to be statistical significant when they were tested for equality of the area under their ROC curves but this should not be confused with their clinical significance.^