Data to Decision in a Dynamic Ocean: Robust Species Distribution Models and Spatial Decision Frameworks

Human use of the oceans is increasingly in conflict with conservation of endangered species. Methods for managing the spatial and temporal placement of industries such as military, fishing, transportation and offshore energy, have historically been post hoc; i.e. the time and place of human activity is often already determined before assessment of environmental impacts. In this dissertation, I build robust species distribution models in two case study areas, US Atlantic (Best et al. 2012) and British Columbia (Best et al. 2015), predicting presence and abundance respectively, from scientific surveys. These models are then applied to novel decision frameworks for preemptively suggesting optimal placement of human activities in space and time to minimize ecological impacts: siting for offshore wind energy development, and routing ships to minimize risk of striking whales. Both decision frameworks relate the tradeoff between conservation risk and industry profit with synchronized variable and map views as online spatial decision support systems.

For siting offshore wind energy development (OWED) in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 4), bird density maps are combined across species with weights of OWED sensitivity to collision and displacement and 10 km2 sites are compared against OWED profitability based on average annual wind speed at 90m hub heights and distance to transmission grid. A spatial decision support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot views by site. A selected site can be inspected for sensitivity to a cetaceans throughout the year, so as to capture months of the year which minimize episodic impacts of pre-operational activities such as seismic airgun surveying and pile driving.

Routing ships to avoid whale strikes (chapter 5) can be similarly viewed as a tradeoff, but is a different problem spatially. A cumulative cost surface is generated from density surface maps and conservation status of cetaceans, before applying as a resistance surface to calculate least-cost routes between start and end locations, i.e. ports and entrance locations to study areas. Varying a multiplier to the cost surface enables calculation of multiple routes with different costs to conservation of cetaceans versus cost to transportation industry, measured as distance. Similar to the siting chapter, a spatial decisions support system enables toggling between the map and tradeoff plot view of proposed routes. The user can also input arbitrary start and end locations to calculate the tradeoff on the fly.

Essential to the input of these decision frameworks are distributions of the species. The two preceding chapters comprise species distribution models from two case study areas, U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2) and British Columbia (chapter 3), predicting presence and density, respectively. Although density is preferred to estimate potential biological removal, per Marine Mammal Protection Act requirements in the U.S., all the necessary parameters, especially distance and angle of observation, are less readily available across publicly mined datasets.

In the case of predicting cetacean presence in the U.S. Atlantic (chapter 2), I extracted datasets from the online OBIS-SEAMAP geo-database, and integrated scientific surveys conducted by ship (n=36) and aircraft (n=16), weighting a Generalized Additive Model by minutes surveyed within space-time grid cells to harmonize effort between the two survey platforms. For each of 16 cetacean species guilds, I predicted the probability of occurrence from static environmental variables (water depth, distance to shore, distance to continental shelf break) and time-varying conditions (monthly sea-surface temperature). To generate maps of presence vs. absence, Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curves were used to define the optimal threshold that minimizes false positive and false negative error rates. I integrated model outputs, including tables (species in guilds, input surveys) and plots (fit of environmental variables, ROC curve), into an online spatial decision support system, allowing for easy navigation of models by taxon, region, season, and data provider.

For predicting cetacean density within the inner waters of British Columbia (chapter 3), I calculated density from systematic, line-transect marine mammal surveys over multiple years and seasons (summer 2004, 2005, 2008, and spring/autumn 2007) conducted by Raincoast Conservation Foundation. Abundance estimates were calculated using two different methods: Conventional Distance Sampling (CDS) and Density Surface Modelling (DSM). CDS generates a single density estimate for each stratum, whereas DSM explicitly models spatial variation and offers potential for greater precision by incorporating environmental predictors. Although DSM yields a more relevant product for the purposes of marine spatial planning, CDS has proven to be useful in cases where there are fewer observations available for seasonal and inter-annual comparison, particularly for the scarcely observed elephant seal. Abundance estimates are provided on a stratum-specific basis. Steller sea lions and harbour seals are further differentiated by ‘hauled out’ and ‘in water’. This analysis updates previous estimates (Williams & Thomas 2007) by including additional years of effort, providing greater spatial precision with the DSM method over CDS, novel reporting for spring and autumn seasons (rather than summer alone), and providing new abundance estimates for Steller sea lion and northern elephant seal. In addition to providing a baseline of marine mammal abundance and distribution, against which future changes can be compared, this information offers the opportunity to assess the risks posed to marine mammals by existing and emerging threats, such as fisheries bycatch, ship strikes, and increased oil spill and ocean noise issues associated with increases of container ship and oil tanker traffic in British Columbia���s continental shelf waters.

Starting with marine animal observations at specific coordinates and times, I combine these data with environmental data, often satellite derived, to produce seascape predictions generalizable in space and time. These habitat-based models enable prediction of encounter rates and, in the case of density surface models, abundance that can then be applied to management scenarios. Specific human activities, OWED and shipping, are then compared within a tradeoff decision support framework, enabling interchangeable map and tradeoff plot views. These products make complex processes transparent for gaming conservation, industry and stakeholders towards optimal marine spatial management, fundamental to the tenets of marine spatial planning, ecosystem-based management and dynamic ocean management.

Les politiques de revenu minimum dans les provinces canadiennes : une étude comparée de l’aide sociale au Canada

L’objectif de ce mémoire est d’identifier les déterminants de la générosité de l’aide sociale au Canada. Plus précisément, quels sont les facteurs qui expliquent les variations entre les montants d’aide sociale entre les provinces canadiennes de 1990 à 2009? Pourquoi le Québec, la Saskatchewan et Terre-Neuve-Labrador sont plus généreux que le Nouveau-Brunswick et l’Alberta? L’analyse de ces 10 politiques distinctes est produite à partir d’un cadre théorique quadripartite qui inclut le rôle des acteurs (partis politiques et syndicats), les traits institutionnels (dépenses publiques et engagement à la redistribution), les contraintes budgétaires (taux d’assistance sociale, dette, économie) et le rôle du gouvernement fédéral (montant et type de transfert). Les résultats démontrent que l’aide sociale est une politique hautement dépendante au sentier et incrémentale. Des transferts fédéraux à coût partagé et un taux de syndicalisation élevé sont des facteurs qui exercent une influence positive sur la générosité des provinces. À l’inverse, les partis de droite ainsi qu’une situation budgétaire difficile ont un impact négatif. Il faut noter que la richesse économique des provinces n’est pas associée à une plus grande générosité de l’aide sociale, au contraire les prestations d’aide sociale étaient plus faibles en 2009 qu’en 1990 malgré un PIB qui a presque doublé. De plus, des provinces riches comme l’Alberta et la Colombie-Britannique sont peu généreuses. Finalement, il faut noter que les partis politiques de gauche n’ont pas l’effet positif escompté sur la générosité des politiques de revenu minimum.

Geochemistry for sediment core MD02-2496

Variations in chalcophile and redox-sensitive trace elements are examined at high-resolution intervals from a ~50 kyr long sediment core (MD02-2496) from the Vancouver Island margin. Enrichments of Ag, Cd, Re, U, and Mo above lithogenous levels, signifying sedimentary suboxia and anoxia, occurred during the early Holocene and Bølling/Allerød, and during warm interstadial events of Marine Isotope Stage (MIS) 3. Down-core trace element profiles co-vary with productivity proxy records (opal, CaCO3, and marine organic carbon), and with sedimentary nitrogen isotope ratios, which reflect variably enriched nitrate upwelled from intermediate waters that were transported northward from the Eastern Tropical North Pacific. The similarity of the MD02-2496 record with records from the southern portion of the California Current System (CCS), and to the Greenland ice core oxygen isotope record during warm climate intervals, suggests that sedimentary redox conditions along the California Current responded to local productivity, to North Atlantic climate change and to tropical Pacific surface water processes via long-distance teleconnections. Concentrations of trace elements and productivity proxies were relatively depleted during the Younger Dryas, cool stadial events of MIS 3, and in two episodes of glaciomarine sedimentation from ~14.7 to 30.5 kyr BP (last glacial maximum, LGM), and from 44 to 50.4 kyr BP. Cordilleran Ice Sheet advancement onto the Vancouver Island continental shelf during the LGM led to intervals of increased terrigenous sedimentation and greatly reduced productivity not seen in the southern portion of the CCS, and along with ventilation of North Pacific Intermediate Waters, resulted in brief sedimentary oxic conditions.

(Table 1) Phosphorus and carbon chemistry of ODP Holes 169-1033B and 169-1034B

Uncertainty currently exists about the removal of carbon (C) and phosphorus (P) from the oceanic reservoir, especially in low oxygen settings. In this paper, the cycling of C and P is examined in sediments from the anoxic Saanich Inlet, cored by Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Leg 169S in 1996 at two sites. Although Corg/Porg ratios are high and increase with depth in the Saanich Inlet, this effect is due largely to a remobilization of P from an organic matter sink to an authigenic sink. Reducible sedimentary components act as temporary shuttles in this process even in this anoxic setting, with the ultimate burial sink for the remobilized P being carbonate fluorapatite. The effective Corg/Preactive molar ratio appears to be about 150-200, indicating some preferential loss of P compared to C during organic matter degradation, but not approaching previously reported values of over 3000 in black shales. Reactive P accumulation rates in this basin range from 10,000-60,000 µmol/cm**2/kyr, greatly exceeding the range of 500-8000 µmol/cm**2/kyr found in most continental-margin settings, including regions of modern phosphogenesis. The initiation of marine sedimentation in the Saanich Inlet occurred after deglaciation, and the high rates of P burial seen here may provide an end-member example of the effects of sea level and margin sedimentation on the distribution of P within the marine P cycle.

Annotated record of the detailed examination of Mn deposits from Hudson-70, Phase VII cruise (CNAV Endeavour) stations

A geophysical survey was conducted off Vancouver and Queen Charlotte Islands over a four-week period (July 12 to August 5, 1970) as part of HUDSON-70 expedition. The HUDSON-70 expedition was organized as part of the Canadian contribution to the International Decade of Oceanographic Exploration. The geophysical survey was conducted to study the subsurface structure across the continental margin off the British Columbia coast and in the deep ocean basins. The present report contains descriptions of the various measurements made during this cruise and the data collected.

What’s a Country For? The Social Contract in the Global Era (Working Paper 11)

Presentation to the Conference on “Rethinking the Line: the Canada-U.S. Border,” Vancouver, British Columbia, October 22-25, 2000.

First Nation Successes: Developing Urban Reserves in Canada

First Nation urban reserves have been a part of Canadian cities since the late 1980s. These reserves, an extension of a base or parent First Nation reserve, are separate pieces of land that can be found within a municipality and are created through the federal Additions to Reserve policy. To better understand this policy, and the impact of urban reserve development in Canada, this study analyzed three First Nations with urban reserves in Canada, which included the Westbank First Nation in Kelowna, British Columbia, the Muskeg Lake Cree Nation in Saskatoon, Saskatchewan, and the Long Plain First Nation in Winnipeg, Manitoba. The analysis included a summary of the First Nation, development that has occurred on-reserve, the results of this development, as well as the lessons learned, benefits, and challenges of urban reserve creation in Canada.

Revisiting the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous of the NW South Iberian Basin: new ages and sedimentary environments

The study of the Upper Jurassic-Lower Cretaceous deposits (Higueruelas, Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Formations) of the South Iberian Basin (NW Valencia, Spain) reveals new stratigraphic and sedimentological data, which have significant implications on the stratigraphic framework, depositional environments and age of these units. The Higueruelas Fm was deposited in a mid-inner carbonate platform where oncolitic bars migrated by the action of storms and where oncoid production progressively decreased towards the uppermost part of the unit. The overlying Villar del Arzobispo Fm has been traditionally interpreted as an inner platform-lagoon evolving into a tidal-flat. Here it is interpreted as an inner-carbonate platform affected by storms, where oolitic shoals protected a lagoon, which had siliciclastic inputs from the continent. The Aldea de Cortés Fm has been previously interpreted as a lagoon surrounded by tidal-flats and fluvial-deltaic plains. Here it is reinterpreted as a coastal wetland where siliciclastic muddy deposits interacted with shallow fresh to marine water bodies, aeolian dunes and continental siliciclastic inputs. The contact between the Higueruelas and Villar del Arzobispo Fms, classically defined as gradual, is also interpreted here as rapid. More importantly, the contact between the Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Fms, previously considered as unconformable, is here interpreted as gradual. The presence of Alveosepta in the Villar del Arzobispo Fm suggests that at least part of this unit is Kimmeridgian, unlike the previously assigned Late Tithonian-Middle Berriasian age. Consequently, the underlying Higueruelas Fm, previously considered Tithonian, should not be younger than Kimmeridgian. Accordingly, sedimentation of the Aldea de Cortés Fm, previously considered Valangian-Hauterivian, probably started during the Tithonian and it may be considered part of the regressive trend of the Late Jurassic-Early Cretaceous cycle. This is consistent with the dinosaur faunas, typically Jurassic, described in the Villar del Arzobispo and Aldea de Cortés Fms.

Do Institutional Participatory Projects Contribute to the Development of Political Capabilities?

Participation usually sets off from the bottom up, taking the form of more or less enduring forms of collective action with varying degrees of infl uence. However, a number of projects have been launched by political institutions in the last decades with a view to engaging citizens in public affairs and developing their democratic habits, as well as those of the administration. This paper analyses the political qualifying capacity of the said projects, i.e. whether participating in them qualifi es individuals to behave as active citizens; whether these projects foster greater orientation towards public matters, intensify (or create) political will, and provide the necessary skills and expertise to master this will. To answer these questions, data from the comparative analysis of fi ve participatory projects in France and Spain are used, shedding light on which features of these participatory projects contribute to the formation of political subjects and in which way. Finally, in order to better understand this formative dimension, the formative capacity of institutional projects is compared with the formative dimension of other forms of participation spontaneously developed by citizens.

La voz del otro: rompiendo con la tradición del museo

Existe una actitud predominante en el mundo de los museos según la cual las diversas culturas se presentan y se respetan de manera adecuada, dándose un diálogo efectivo entre los museos y las comunidades culturales a las que sirven. Sin embargo, el presente trabajo disiente de dicha creencia, expone sus motivos, y sugiere una trayectoria por la que los museos pueden acercarse con éxito a tales objetivos. Lo que está en juego aquí es el ethos contemporáneo e histórico de los museos y su concepto de la identidad propia, lo que interfiere con su capacidad para incluir a “los otros”, excepto en sus propios términos. El propósito del museo en este sentido es mantener su voz preeminente y su prerrogativa intelectual en sus comunicaciones con el público al que sirve. La idea de que hay múltiples voces que necesitan ser escuchadas no es un concepto fácil de contemplar para los museos, y un paso positivo en aquella dirección representaría un cambio importante con consecuencias de largo alcance.