The implications for the EU and national budgets of the use of EU instruments for macro-financial stability. CEPS Special Report, 4 September 2012

The euro crisis has forced member states and the EU institutions to create a series of new instruments to safeguard macro-financial stability of the Union. This study describes the status of existing instruments, the role of the European Parliament and how the use of the instruments impinges on the EU budget also through their effects on national budgets. In addition, it presents a survey of other possible instruments that have been proposed in recent years (e.g. E-bonds and eurobonds), in order to provide an assessment of how EU macro-financial stability assistance could evolve in the future and what could be its impact on EU public finances.

What Germany should fear most is its own fear: An analysis of Target2 and current account imbalances. CEPS Working Document No. 368, September 2012

This paper analyzes two claims that have been made about the Target2 payment system. The first one is that this system has been used to support unsustainable current account deficits of Southern European countries. The second one is that the large accumulation of Target2 claims by the Bundesbank represents an unacceptable risk for Germany if the eurozone were to break up. We argue that these claims are unfounded. They also lead to unnecessary fears in Germany that make a solution of the eurozone crisis more difficult. Ultimately, this fear increases the risk of a break-up of the eurozone. Or to paraphrase Franklin Roosevelt, what Germany should fear most is simply its own fear.

Mortality of Migratory Birds from Marine Commercial Fisheries and Offshore Oil and Gas Production in Canada

There is an imminent need for conservation and best-practice management efforts in marine ecosystems where global-scale declines in the biodiversity and biomass of large vertebrate predators are increasing and marine communities are being altered. We examine two marine-based industries that incidentally take migratory birds in Canada: (1) commercial fisheries, through bycatch, and (2) offshore oil and gas exploration, development, and production. We summarize information from the scientific literature and technical reports and also present new information from recently analyzed data to assess the magnitude and scope of mortality. Fisheries bycatch was responsible for the highest levels of incidental take of migratory bird species; estimated combined take in the longline, gillnet, and bottom otter trawl fisheries within the Atlantic, including the Gulf of St. Lawrence, and Pacific regions was 2679 to 45,586 birds per year. For the offshore oil and gas sector, mortality estimates ranged from 188 to 4494 deaths per year due to the discharge of produced waters resulting in oil sheens and collisions with platforms and vessels; however these estimates for the oil and gas sector are based on many untested assumptions. In spite of the uncertainties, we feel levels of mortality from these two industries are unlikely to affect the marine bird community in Canada, but some effects on local populations from bycatch are likely. Further research and monitoring will be required to: (1) better estimate fisheries-related mortality for vulnerable species and populations that may be impacted by local fisheries, (2) determine the effects of oil sheens from produced waters, and attraction to platforms and associated mortality from collisions, sheens, and flaring, so that better estimates of mortality from the offshore oil and gas sector can be obtained, and (3) determine impacts associated with accidental spills, which are not included in our current assessment. With a better understanding of the direct mortality of marine birds from industry, appropriate mitigation and management actions can be implemented. Cooperation from industry for data collection, research to fill knowledge gaps, and implementation of mitigation approaches will all be needed to conserve marine birds in Canada.

Developing sensorized arm skin for an octopus inspired robot

Soft skin artefacts made of knitted nylon reinforced silicon rubber were fabricated mimicking octopus skin. A combination of ecoflex 0030 and 0010 were used as matrix of the composite to obtain the right stiffness for the skin artefacts. Material properties were characterised using static uniaxial tension and scissors cutting tests. Two types of tactile sensors were developed to detect normal contact; one used quantum tunnelling composite materials and the second was fabricated from silicone rubber and a conductive textile. Sensitivities of the sensors were tested by applying different modes of loading and the soft sensors were incorporated into the skin prototype. Passive suckers were developed and tested against squid suckers. An integrated skin prototype with embedded deformable sensors and attached suckers developed for the arm of an octopus inspired robot is also presented.

Reconstruction of geomagnetic activity and near-Earth interplanetary conditions over the past 167 yr – Part 1: A new geomagnetic data composite

We present a new composite of geomagnetic activity which is designed to be as homogeneous in its construction as possible. This is done by only combining data that, by virtue of the locations of the source observatories used, have similar responses to solar wind and IMF (interplanetary magnetic field) variations. This will enable us (in Part 2, Lockwood et al., 2013a) to use the new index to reconstruct the interplanetary magnetic field, B, back to 1846 with a full analysis of errors. Allowance is made for the effects of secular change in the geomagnetic field. The composite uses interdiurnal variation data from Helsinki for 1845–1890 (inclusive) and 1893–1896 and from Eskdalemuir from 1911 to the present. The gaps are filled using data from the Potsdam (1891–1892 and 1897–1907) and the nearby Seddin observatories (1908–1910) and intercalibration achieved using the Potsdam–Seddin sequence. The new index is termed IDV(1d) because it employs many of the principles of the IDV index derived by Svalgaard and Cliver (2010), inspired by the u index of Bartels (1932); however, we revert to using one-day (1d) means, as employed by Bartels, because the use of near-midnight values in IDV introduces contamination by the substorm current wedge auroral electrojet, giving noise and a dependence on solar wind speed that varies with latitude. The composite is compared with independent, early data from European-sector stations, Greenwich, St Petersburg, Parc St Maur, and Ekaterinburg, as well as the composite u index, compiled from 2–6 stations by Bartels, and the IDV index of Svalgaard and Cliver. Agreement is found to be extremely good in all cases, except two. Firstly, the Greenwich data are shown to have gradually degraded in quality until new instrumentation was installed in 1915. Secondly, we infer that the Bartels u index is increasingly unreliable before about 1886 and overestimates the solar cycle amplitude between 1872 and 1883 and this is amplified in the proxy data used before 1872. This is therefore also true of the IDV index which makes direct use of the u index values.

Population genetic structure and dispersal in white-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecari) from the Brazilian Pantanal

In many mammals social organization promotes genetic structuring, which can be influenced by the dispersal pattern of the species. We analyzed the population genetic structure and dispersal of white-lipped peccaries (Tayassu pecan) from the Pantanal, Brazil. We genotyped 100 individuals at 7 microsatellite loci from 2 adjacent locations with no obvious geographic barrier between them. We found a significant but low F(ST) value, and the Bayesian analysis indicated a unique cluster. No significant differences were observed between mean assignment indices of resident males and females from both locations, and the probability of being born at the location sampled of > 30% of the individuals analyzed was lower than average. Mean relatedness between resident female, male, and opposite-sex pairs was not statistically different in both locations. These results suggest a low degree of genetic differentiation between the locations analyzed, and dispersal by both sexes (contrary to the predicted male-biased dispersal of most mammalian species).

Young peoples’ entrance to the workplace : Introduction to occupational health and safety

Negative outcomes of a poor work environment are more frequent among young workers. The aim of the current study was to study former pupils’ conditions concerning occupational health and safety by investigating the workplaces’, safety climate, the degree of implementation of SWEM and the their introduction programs. Four branches were included in the study: Industrial, Restaurant, Transport and Handicraft, specialising in wood. Semi-structured dialogues were undertaken with 15 employers at companies in which former pupils were employed. They also answered a questionnaire about SWEM. Former pupils and experienced employees were upon the same occasion asked to fill in a questionnaire about safety climate at the workplace. Workplace introduction programs varied and were strongly linked to company size. Most of the former pupils and experienced employees rated the safety climate at their company as high, or good. Employers in three of the branches rated the SWEM implemented at their workplaces to be effective. The Industry companies, which had the largest workplaces, gave the most systematic and workplace introduction for new employees. There are no results from this study explaining the fact that young workers have a higher risk for workplace accidents.

Recording and Using Provenance in a Protein Compressibility Experiment

Very large scale computations are now becoming routinely used as a methodology to undertake scientific research. In this context, `provenance systems' are regarded as the equivalent of the scientist's logbook for in silico experimentation: provenance captures the documentation of the process that led to some result. Using a protein compressibility analysis application, we derive a set of generic use cases for a provenance system. In order to support these, we address the following fundamental questions: what is provenance? how to record it? what is the performance impact for grid execution? what is the performance of reasoning? In doing so, we define a technologyindependent notion of provenance that captures interactions between components, internal component information and grouping of interactions, so as to allow us to analyse and reason about the execution of scientific processes. In order to support persistent provenance in heterogeneous applications, we introduce a separate provenance store, in which provenance documentation can be stored, archived and queried independently of the technology used to run the application. Through a series of practical tests, we evaluate the performance impact of such a provenance system. In summary, we demonstrate that provenance recording overhead of our prototype system remains under 10% of execution time, and we show that the recorded information successfully supports our use cases in a performant manner.

Provenance: The Bridge Between Experiments and Data

Current scientific applications are often structured as workflows and rely on workflow systems to compile abstract experiment designs into enactable workflows that utilise the best available resources. The automation of this step and of the workflow enactment, hides the details of how results have been produced. Knowing how compilation and enactment occurred allows results to be reconnected with the experiment design. We investigate how provenance helps scientists to connect their results with the actual execution that took place, their original experiment and its inputs and parameters.

A formação de rede para o atendimento de desastres de massa: o caso do acidente aéreo do voo 447 da Air France

Este estudo teve por objetivo verificar como as características do modelo de rede se manifestam em resposta a desastres de massa, por meio de um estudo de caso. O objeto dessa pesquisa foi o acidente aéreo do voo 447 da Air France, que aconteceu em meados de 2009, no Oceano Atlântico em área próxima ao arquipélago de São Pedro e São Paulo, circunscrição do estado de Pernambuco. A rede formada para a resposta a esse acidente foi composta pela Aeronáutica, Marinha, Polícia Federal, Secretaria de Defesa Social de Pernambuco, INTERPOL e Secretaria de Estado da Segurança e da Defesa Social da Paraíba, tendo ainda a participação de outras instituições, que forneceram suporte logístico de pessoas e recursos em geral para a missão. As atividades desenvolvidas durante o evento compreenderam busca e resgate dos corpos, sob a coordenação da Aeronáutica e da Marinha, pré-identificação dos corpos, sob a coordenação da Polícia Federal e da Secretaria de Defesa Social de Pernambuco, necrópsia dos corpos e coleta de material postmortem, sob a coordenação da Secretaria de Defesa Social de Pernambuco e da Secretaria de Estado da Segurança e da Defesa Social da Paraíba, coleta de material antemortem, sob a coordenação da INTERPOL e da Polícia Federal, e identificação dos corpos, que teve como coordenadores a Polícia Federal e a Secretaria de Defesa Social de Pernambuco. A pesquisa realizada compreendeu três momentos distintos: a) montagem da estrutura da rede, b) análise das etapas de gerenciamento e, c) identificação das características da rede. A montagem da estrutura da rede permitiu conhecer em detalhes a rede formada, seus integrantes, objetivos e funcionamento, e subsidiar as etapas seguintes. Com isso foi possível fazer uma análise das etapas de gerenciamento da rede, a ativação, o enquadramento, a mobilização e a síntese, e como cada uma delas aconteceu na rede de atendimento do voo 447 da Air France. Por fim, foi possível identificar as principais características do modelo de rede, a pluralidade, a horizontalidade, a capilaridade, a interdependência, a flexibilidade e a dinâmica do estado, e verificar como elas se manifestaram na missão de resposta ao acidente aéreo do voo 447 da Air France.

Diversidade de cefalópodes e o seu papel no nicho trófico de seus principais predadores nos Arquipélagos de Fernando de Noronha e São Pedro e São Paulo

This study aims, to characterize the diversity of cephalopods by analyzing the stomach contents of fishes caught in the islands of St. Peter and St. Paul (ASPSP) and Fernando de Noronha (AFN). Also, verify the participation of cephalopods in the diet of their main predators. A total of 723 stomachs were collected, from 8 species of fish, caught by the fishery, 471 stomachs were from ASPSP and 252 were from the AFN. It was recorded the occurrence of food items (fish, cephalopods and crustaceans) and the cephalopods were identified to the lowest taxa possible, according to specialized literature. The Ommastrephidae family represented 84.46% of occurrence in the ASPSP and 63.48% in the AFN, confirming the importance of this family in the area studied and also in the diet of their predators. Among the species with greatest occurrence Ornitoteuthis antillarum was the most representative in both regions. This species had an average mantle length of 54.25 mm, thus demonstrating that the majority of this population is in the juvenile stage of development. The smallest species found was Argonauta nodosa with a mantle length of 4.06 mm and the largest was Ommastrephes bartrami, with 223.33 mm. In the AFN, the species richness (d) was 2.318, the diversity index (H ') was 1.454 and the measure of evenness (J) was 0.585. In the ASPSP, the species richness (d) was 2.66, the Shannon diversity index (H ') was 1.013 and the measure of evenness (J) was 0.373. AFN has a greater cephalopod diversity than ASPSP, confirming the pattern suggested by the Theory of Island Biogeography. Among the occurrence of prey items for all predators, the cephalopods are secondary preys. The most important cephalopod species in the diet of Thunnus albacares and Acantocybium solandri was Ornithoteuthis antillarum. These predators have different niche width the diet of Thunnus albacares is more specialized, but they have an overlap of 84.684% in the trophic niche, suggesting that in the ASPSP these two species may use similar niches