Is it me? Self-recognition bias across sensory modalities and its relationship to autistic traits

Background Atypical self-processing is an emerging theme in autism research, suggested by lower self-reference effect in memory, and atypical neural responses to visual self-representations. Most research on physical self-processing in autism uses visual stimuli. However, the self is a multimodal construct, and therefore, it is essential to test self-recognition in other sensory modalities as well. Self-recognition in the auditory modality remains relatively unexplored and has not been tested in relation to autism and related traits. This study investigates self-recognition in auditory and visual domain in the general population and tests if it is associated with autistic traits. Methods Thirty-nine neurotypical adults participated in a two-part study. In the first session, individual participant’s voice was recorded and face was photographed and morphed respectively with voices and faces from unfamiliar identities. In the second session, participants performed a ‘self-identification’ task, classifying each morph as ‘self’ voice (or face) or an ‘other’ voice (or face). All participants also completed the Autism Spectrum Quotient (AQ). For each sensory modality, slope of the self-recognition curve was used as individual self-recognition metric. These two self-recognition metrics were tested for association between each other, and with autistic traits. Results Fifty percent ‘self’ response was reached for a higher percentage of self in the auditory domain compared to the visual domain (t = 3.142; P < 0.01). No significant correlation was noted between self-recognition bias across sensory modalities (τ = −0.165, P = 0.204). Higher recognition bias for self-voice was observed in individuals higher in autistic traits (τ AQ = 0.301, P = 0.008). No such correlation was observed between recognition bias for self-face and autistic traits (τ AQ = −0.020, P = 0.438). Conclusions Our data shows that recognition bias for physical self-representation is not related across sensory modalities. Further, individuals with higher autistic traits were better able to discriminate self from other voices, but this relation was not observed with self-face. A narrow self-other overlap in the auditory domain seen in individuals with high autistic traits could arise due to enhanced perceptual processing of auditory stimuli often observed in individuals with autism.

Persistence in diving American mink

Background American mink forage on land and in water, with aquatic prey often constituting a large proportion of their diet. Their long, thin body shape and relatively poor insulation make them vulnerable to heat loss, particularly in water, yet some individuals dive over 100 times a day. At the level of individual dives, previous research found no difference in dive depth or duration, or the total number of dives per day between seasons, but mink did appear to make more dives per active hour in winter than in summer. There was also no difference in the depth or duration of individual dives between the sexes, but there was some evidence that females made more dives per day than males. However, because individual mink dives tend to be extremely short in duration, persistence (quantified as the number of consecutive dives performed) may be a more appropriate metric with which to compare diving behaviour under different scenarios. Results Mink performed up to 28 consecutive dives, and dived continually for up to 36 min. Periods of more loosely aggregated diving (termed ‘aquatic activity sessions’) comprised up to 80 dives, carried out over up to 162.8 min. Contrary to our predictions, persistence was inversely proportional to body weight, with small animals more persistent than large ones, and (for females, but not for males) increased with decreasing temperature. For both sexes, persistence was greater during the day than during the night. Conclusions The observed body weight effect may point to inter-sexual niche partitioning, since in mink the smallest animals are females and the largest are males. The results may equally point to individual specialism’s, since persistence was also highly variable among individuals. Given the energetic costs involved, the extreme persistence of some animals observed in winter suggests that the costs of occasional prolonged activity in cold water are outweighed by the energetic gains. Analysing dive persistence can provide information on an animal’s physical capabilities for performing multiple dives and may reveal how such behaviour is affected by different conditions. Further development of monitoring and biologging methodology to allow quantification of hunting success, and thus the rewards obtained under alternative scenarios, would be insightful.

A route to systematic error in forecasts of Rossby waves

Recent work has shown that both the amplitude of upper-level Rossby waves and the tropopause sharpness decrease with forecast lead time for several days in some operational weather forecast systems. In this contribution, the evolution of error growth in a case study of this forecast error type is diagnosed through analysis of operational forecasts and hindcast simulations. Potential vorticity (PV) on the 320-K isentropic surface is used to diagnose Rossby waves. The Rossby-wave forecast error in the operational ECMWF high-resolution forecast is shown to be associated with errors in the forecast of a warm conveyor belt (WCB) through trajectory analysis and an error metric for WCB outflows. The WCB forecast error is characterised by an overestimation of WCB amplitude, a location of the WCB outflow regions that is too far to the southeast, and a resulting underestimation of the magnitude of the negative PV anomaly in the outflow. Essentially the same forecast error development also occurred in all members of the ECMWF Ensemble Prediction System and the Met Office MOGREPS-15 suggesting that in this case model error made an important contribution to the development of forecast error in addition to initial condition error. Exploiting this forecast error robustness, a comparison was performed between the realised flow evolution, proxied by a sequence of short-range simulations, and a contemporaneous forecast. Both the proxy to the realised flow and the contemporaneous forecast a were produced with the Met Office Unified Model enhanced with tracers of diabatic processes modifying potential temperature and PV. Clear differences were found in the way potential temperature and PV are modified in the WCB between proxy and forecast. These results demonstrate that differences in potential temperature and PV modification in the WCB can be responsible for forecast errors in Rossby waves.

Aspects of designing and evaluating seasonal-to-interannual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems

Using lessons from idealised predictability experiments, we discuss some issues and perspectives on the design of operational seasonal to inter-annual Arctic sea-ice prediction systems. We first review the opportunities to use a hierarchy of different types of experiment to learn about the predictability of Arctic climate. We also examine key issues for ensemble system design, such as: measuring skill, the role of ensemble size and generation of ensemble members. When assessing the potential skill of a set of prediction experiments, using more than one metric is essential as different choices can significantly alter conclusions about the presence or lack of skill. We find that increasing both the number of hindcasts and ensemble size is important for reliably assessing the correlation and expected error in forecasts. For other metrics, such as dispersion, increasing ensemble size is most important. Probabilistic measures of skill can also provide useful information about the reliability of forecasts. In addition, various methods for generating the different ensemble members are tested. The range of techniques can produce surprisingly different ensemble spread characteristics. The lessons learnt should help inform the design of future operational prediction systems.

Metrics for linking emissions of gases and aerosols to global precipitation changes

Recent advances in understanding have made it possible to relate global precipitation changes directly to emissions of particular gases and aerosols that influence climate. Using these advances, new indices are developed here called the Global Precipitation-change Potential for pulse (GPP_P) and sustained (GPP_S) emissions, which measure the precipitation change per unit mass of emissions. The GPP can be used as a metric to compare the effects of different emissions. This is akin to the global warming potential (GWP) and the global temperature-change potential (GTP) which are used to place emissions on a common scale. Hence the GPP provides an additional perspective of the relative or absolute effects of emissions. It is however recognised that precipitation changes are predicted to be highly variable in size and sign between different regions and this limits the usefulness of a purely global metric. The GPP_P and GPP_S formulation consists of two terms, one dependent on the surface temperature change and the other dependent on the atmospheric component of the radiative forcing. For some forcing agents, and notably for CO2, these two terms oppose each other – as the forcing and temperature perturbations have different timescales, even the sign of the absolute GPP_P and GPP_S varies with time, and the opposing terms can make values sensitive to uncertainties in input parameters. This makes the choice of CO2 as a reference gas problematic, especially for the GPP_S at time horizons less than about 60 years. In addition, few studies have presented results for the surface/atmosphere partitioning of different forcings, leading to more uncertainty in quantifying the GPP than the GWP or GTP. Values of the GPP_P and GPP_S for five long- and short-lived forcing agents (CO2, CH4, N2O, sulphate and black carbon – BC) are presented, using illustrative values of required parameters. The resulting precipitation changes are given as the change at a specific time horizon (and hence they are end-point metrics) but it is noted that the GPPS can also be interpreted as the time-integrated effect of a pulse emission. Using CO2 as a references gas, the GPP_P and GPP_S for the non-CO2 species are larger than the corresponding GTP values. For BC emissions, the atmospheric forcing is sufficiently strong that the GPP_S is opposite in sign to the GTP_S. The sensitivity of these values to a number of input parameters is explored. The GPP can also be used to evaluate the contribution of different emissions to precipitation change during or after a period of emissions. As an illustration, the precipitation changes resulting from emissions in 2008 (using the GPP_P) and emissions sustained at 2008 levels (using the GPP_S) are presented. These indicate that for periods of 20 years (after the 2008 emissions) and 50 years (for sustained emissions at 2008 levels) methane is the dominant driver of positive precipitation changes due to those emissions. For sustained emissions, the sum of the effect of the five species included here does not become positive until after 50 years, by which time the global surface temperature increase exceeds 1 K.

Spatial evaluation of volcanic ash forecasts using satellite observations

The decision to close airspace in the event of a volcanic eruption is based on hazard maps of predicted ash extent. These are produced using output from volcanic ash transport and dispersion (VATD)models. In this paper an objectivemetric to evaluate the spatial accuracy of VATD simulations relative to satellite retrievals of volcanic ash is presented. The 5 metric is based on the fractions skill score (FSS). Thismeasure of skill provides more information than traditional point-bypoint metrics, such as success index and Pearson correlation coefficient, as it takes into the account spatial scale overwhich skill is being assessed. The FSS determines the scale overwhich a simulation has skill and can differentiate between a "near miss" and a forecast that is badly misplaced. The 10 idealised scenarios presented show that even simulations with considerable displacement errors have useful skill when evaluated over neighbourhood scales of 200–700km2. This method could be used to compare forecasts produced by different VATDs or using different model parameters, assess the impact of assimilating satellite retrieved ash data and evaluate VATD forecasts over a long time period.

Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs; methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20-year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation (MIT) scenario. Compared to CLE, the MIT scenario would reduce global methane (CH4) and black carbon (BC) emissions by about 50 and 80 %, respectively. For CH4, measures on shale gas production, waste management and coal mines were most important. For non-CH4 SLCPs, elimination of high-emitting vehicles and wick lamps, as well as reducing emissions from gas flaring, coal and biomass stoves, agricultural waste, solvents and diesel engines were most important. These measures lead to large reductions in calculated surface concentrations of ozone and particulate matter. We estimate that in the EU, the loss of statistical life expectancy due to air pollution was 7.5 months in 2010, which will be reduced to 5.2 months by 2030 in the CLE scenario. The MIT scenario would reduce this value by another 0.9 to 4.3 months. Substantially larger reductions due to the mitigation are found for China (1.8 months) and India (11–12 months). The climate metrics cannot fully quantify the climate response. Therefore, a second research path was taken. Transient climate ensemble simulations with the four ESMs were run for the CLE and MIT scenarios, to determine the climate impacts of the mitigation. In these simulations, the CLE scenario resulted in a surface temperature increase of 0.70 ± 0.14 K between the years 2006 and 2050. For the decade 2041–2050, the warming was reduced by 0.22 ± 0.07 K in the MIT scenario, and this result was in almost exact agreement with the response calculated based on the emission metrics (reduced warming of 0.22 ± 0.09 K). The metrics calculations suggest that non-CH4 SLCPs contribute ~ 22 % to this response and CH4 78 %. This could not be fully confirmed by the transient simulations, which attributed about 90 % of the temperature response to CH4 reductions. Attribution of the observed temperature response to non-CH4 SLCP emission reductions and BC specifically is hampered in the transient simulations by small forcing and co-emitted species of the emission basket chosen. Nevertheless, an important conclusion is that our mitigation basket as a whole would lead to clear benefits for both air quality and climate. The climate response from BC reductions in our study is smaller than reported previously, possibly because our study is one of the first to use fully coupled climate models, where unforced variability and sea ice responses cause relatively strong temperature fluctuations that may counteract (and, thus, mask) the impacts of small emission reductions. The temperature responses to the mitigation were generally stronger over the continents than over the oceans, and with a warming reduction of 0.44 K (0.39–0.49) K the largest over the Arctic. Our calculations suggest particularly beneficial climate responses in southern Europe, where surface warming was reduced by about 0.3 K and precipitation rates were increased by about 15 (6–21) mm yr−1 (more than 4 % of total precipitation) from spring to autumn. Thus, the mitigation could help to alleviate expected future drought and water shortages in the Mediterranean area. We also report other important results of the ECLIPSE project.

What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

The brand likeability scale: an exploratory study of likeability in firm-level brands

We develop a new measurement scale to assess consumers’ brand likeability in firm-level brands. We present brand likeability as a multidimensional construct. In the context of service experience purchases, we find that increased likeability in brands results in: (1) greater amount of positive association; (2) increased interaction interest; (3) more personified quality; and (4) increased brand contentment. The four-dimensional multiple-item scale demonstrates good psychometric properties, showing strong evidence of reliability as well as convergent, discriminant and nomological validity. Our findings reveal that brand likeability is positively associated with satisfaction and positive word of mouth. The scale extends existing branding research, providing brand managers with a metric so that likeability can be managed strategically. It addresses the need for firms to act more likeably in an interaction-dominated economy. Focusing on likeability acts as a differentiator and encourages likeable brand personality traits. We present theoretical implications and future research directions on the holistic brand likeability concept.

Psychometric properties of the parent-infant caregiving touch scale

Recent work in animals suggests that the extent of early tactile stimulation by parents of offspring is an important element in early caregiving. We evaluate the psychometric properties of a new parent-report measure designed to assess frequency of tactile stimulation across multiple caregiving domains in infancy. We describe the full item set of the Parent-Infant Caregiving Touch Scale (PICTS) and, using data from a UK longitudinal Child Health and Development Study, the response frequencies and factor structure and whether it was invariant over two time points in early development (5 and 9 weeks). When their infant was 9 weeks old, 838 mothers responded on the PICTS while a stratified subsample of 268 mothers completed PICTS at an earlier 5 week old assessment (229 responded on both occasions). Three PICTS factors were identified reflecting stroking, holding and affective communication. These were moderately to strongly correlated at each of the two time points of interest and were unrelated to, and therefore distinct from, a traditional measure of maternal sensitivity at 7-months. A wholly stable psychometry over 5 and 9-week assessments was not identified which suggests that behavior profiles differ slightly for younger and older infants. Tests of measurement invariance demonstrated that all three factors are characterized by full configural and metric invariance, as well as a moderate degree of evidence of scalar invariance for the stroking factor. We propose the PICTS as a valuable new measure of important aspects of caregiving in infancy.

Using data insertion with the NAME model to simulate the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud

A data insertion method, where a dispersion model is initialized from ash properties derived from a series of satellite observations, is used to model the 8 May 2010 Eyjafjallajökull volcanic ash cloud which extended from Iceland to northern Spain. We also briefly discuss the application of this method to the April 2010 phase of the Eyjafjallajökull eruption and the May 2011 Grímsvötn eruption. An advantage of this method is that very little knowledge about the eruption itself is required because some of the usual eruption source parameters are not used. The method may therefore be useful for remote volcanoes where good satellite observations of the erupted material are available, but little is known about the properties of the actual eruption. It does, however, have a number of limitations related to the quality and availability of the observations. We demonstrate that, using certain configurations, the data insertion method is able to capture the structure of a thin filament of ash extending over northern Spain that is not fully captured by other modeling methods. It also verifies well against the satellite observations according to the quantitative object-based quality metric, SAL—structure, amplitude, location, and the spatial coverage metric, Figure of Merit in Space.

It’s not the size, it’s the relationship: from ‘small states’ to asymmetry

Debate about the definition of “small state” has produced more fragmentation than consensus, even as the literature has demonstrated its subjects’ roles in joining international organizations propagating norms, executing creative diplomacy, influencing allies, avoiding and joining conflicts, and building peace. However, work on small states has struggled to identify commonalities in these states’ international relations, to cumulate knowledge, or to impact broader IR theory. This paper advocates a changed conceptual and definitional framework. Analysis of “small states” should pivot to examine the dynamics of the asymmetrical relationships in which these states are engaged. Instead of seeking an overall metric for size as the relevant variable—falling victim in a different way Dahl’s “lump-of-power fallacy,” we can recognize the multifaceted, variegated nature of power, whether in war or peacetime.

Positive phenotypic selection inferred from phylogenies

Rates of phenotypic evolution vary widely in nature and these rates may often reflect the intensity of natural selection. Here we outline an approach for detecting exceptional shifts in the rate of phenotypic evolution across phylogenies. We introduce a simple new branch-specific metric ∆V/∆B that divides observed phenotypic change along a branch into two components: (1) that attributable to the background rate (∆B), and (2) that attributable to departures from the background rate (∆V). Where the amount of expected change derived from variation in the rate of morphological evolution doubles that explained by to the background rate (∆V/∆B > 2), we identify this as positive phenotypic selection. We apply our approach to six datasets, finding multiple instances of positive selection in each. Our results support the growing appreciation that the traditional gradual view of phenotypic evolution is rarely upheld, with a more episodic view taking its place. This moves focus away from viewing phenotypic evolution as a simple homogeneous process and facilitates reconciliation with macroevolutionary interpretations from a genetic perspective, paving the way to novel insights into the link between genotype and phenotype. The ability to detect positive selection when genetic data are unavailable or unobtainable represents an attractive prospect for extant species, but when applied to fossil data it can reveal patterns of natural selection in deep time that would otherwise be impossible.

Disparity-defined objects moving in depth do not elicit three-dimensional shape constancy

Observers generally fail to recover three-dimensional shape accurately from binocular disparity. Typically, depth is overestimated at near distances and underestimated at far distances [Johnston, E. B. (1991). Systematic distortions of shape from stereopsis. Vision Research, 31, 1351–1360]. A simple prediction from this is that disparity-defined objects should appear to expand in depth when moving towards the observer, and compress in depth when moving away. However, additional information is provided when an object moves from which 3D Euclidean shape can be recovered, be this through the addition of structure from motion information [Richards, W. (1985). Structure from stereo and motion. Journal of the Optical Society of America A, 2, 343–349], or the use of non-generic strategies [Todd, J. T., & Norman, J. F. (2003). The visual perception of 3-D shape from multiple cues: Are observers capable of perceiving metric structure? Perception and Psychophysics, 65, 31–47]. Here, we investigated shape constancy for objects moving in depth. We found that to be perceived as constant in shape, objects needed to contract in depth when moving toward the observer, and expand in depth when moving away, countering the effects of incorrect distance scaling (Johnston, 1991). This is a striking example of the failure of shape con- stancy, but one that is predicted if observers neither accurately estimate object distance in order to recover Euclidean shape, nor are able to base their responses on a simpler processing strategy.

Effectiveness of mobile apps in teaching field-based identification skills

It has been suggested that few students graduate with the skills required for many ecological careers, as field-based learning is said to be in decline in academic institutions. Here, we asked if mobile technology could improve field-based learning, using ability to identify birds as the study metric. We divided a class of ninety-one undergraduate students into two groups for field-based sessions where they were taught bird identification skills. The first group has access to a traditional identification book and the second group were provided with an identification app. We found no difference between the groups in the ability of students to identify birds after three field sessions. Furthermore, we found that students using the traditional book were significantly more likely to identify novel species. Therefore, we find no evidence that mobile technology improved students’ ability to retain what they experienced in the field; indeed, there is evidence that traditional field guides were more useful to students as they attempted to identify new species. Nevertheless, students felt positively about using their own smartphone devices for learning, highlighting that while apps did not lead to an improvement in bird identification ability, they gave greater accessibility to relevant information outside allocated teaching times.